Notre Dame Season Preview 2015

2014 Record: 8-5

2014 Final F/+ Ranking (Football Outsiders):
34
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 10 defense
Five Year Recruiting Ranking (247Sports
Composite): 9
Records last five years: 8-5, 8-5, 12-1, 9-4, 8-5

Key Facts:

Offense:
Depth Issues in Backfield?
If everything goes as planned this season, the offseason losses of quarterback Everett
Golson and running back Greg Bryant will have minimal effect on the offense. After all, in the
most recent Notre Dame game, Golson and Bryant were the backup quarterback and the third
string running back, respectively. That being said, if injury or ineffectiveness strikes the
backfield, the offense could quickly find itself out of options. Zaire is now the only quarterback
on the team with any game experience; he has two talented backups in DeShone Kizer and

Brandon Wimbush, who were both highly touted signings out of high school but neither
possesses any college game experience. Similarly, at running back, an injury to starter Tarean
Folston could prove catastrophic. Behind Folston is converted slot receiver C.J. Prosise, a great
talent who flashed his ability with a huge 50 yard TD run in the Music City Bowl but is not
considered an every down back. If either Folston or Prosise suffers injury or fails to live up to his
billing, the Irish will be forced to play newly converted wide receiver Justin Brent or one of two
true freshman at running back. That being said, the backfield is still stocked with talent. Malik
Zaire is the best running quarterback of the Brian Kelly era, and with his ability to run the read
option the offense could be the most productive of the last five years. Zaire lacks the accuracy of
Everett Golson on short throws, but as he showed in the spring game he does not lack for arm
strength, and a full fall of first team reps should help him improve as a passer. Tarean Folston
lacks game breaking speed but has averaged an efficient 5.2 yards per carry over his first two
years and is a reliable option. C.J. Prosise does have game breaking speed and could represent
a much needed home run threat in the backfield. Together with the offensive line, Zaire, Folston,
and Prosise have a chance to create a rushing attack that is both efficient and explosive.

Offensive Line Must Preform

The majority of 2014 was a letdown from an offensive line standpoint, as the line ranked
30th in adjusted sack rate and 32nd in adjusted line years
(http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol). With the talent on hand, it was expected

that the line would preform better, and while it struggled to reach lofty expectations in the regular
season, it exceeded them in the bowl game, as the team rushed for 263 yards on 5.2 yards per
attempt against a talented SEC opponent. This year the line loses Christian Lombard, Matt
Hegarty, and Connor Hanratty, but brings back star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Nick
Martin as returning starters. Along with Steve Elmer Jr, Mick McGlinchey, and Quenton Nelson,
the line looks to be stocked with talent despite the personnel losses. If the offense moves to a
more run based attack as expected, the line will be expected to repeat its performance in the
bowl game week after week. If the line establishes itself as one of the best in the country the
offense should have no problem becoming an efficient attack. However, if the line struggles the
entire offense will ground to halt. The development of the offensive line might be even more
important than the development of Zaire as a quarterback, because if the line opens up running
opportunities consistently Zaire wont need to win games with his arm.

Depth, Talent at Wide Receiver

Wide receiver figures to be the position most set up for success on the offense. Star
receiver Will Fuller figures to compete for the Biletnikoff Award this season and has talent both
as a possession receiver and a deep threat. He has averaged 15.3 yards per catch for his
career and last year emerged as the star of the unit following Davaris Daniels dismissal. With 15
touchdowns last year including a long touchdown catch of 75 yards Fuller will be expected to act
as the standard bearer for the unit. Chris Brown is a senior who lacks the top notch ability of
Fuller but is a solid number two option who could have his most productive season yet. The slot

position also looks set, as fifth year senior Amir Carlisle has talent to add and sophomore Torri
Hunter Jr. provides a nice depth option. At tight end it appears the starter will be Durham
Smythe, who will be expected to do nothing less than carry on the recent tradition of great Notre
Dame tight ends, four of whom have been taken in the first or second round of the draft since
2008. This unit is chalk full of four and five star recruits and returns all major contributors outside
of Ben Koyack. It should be one of the best units on the entire team.

Defense:
Comeback Year for Defensive Line
Last years defense allowed 171 rush yards per game, ranked 70th in rushing S&P+, and
ranked 64th in defensive success rate (Football Outsiders). In other words, it was easy for
opponents, especially in the second half of the season, to maintain an efficient offense and stay
on schedule just by utilizing their run game. The issues in rush defense began with the
defensive line. Despite lots of talent in the top group, including Sheldon Day, the line was
plagued by injuries and a lack of quality depth as the line surrendered 251 rushing yards per
game over the last 6 games of the season. For Notre Dames defense as a whole to improve in
2015, the line must start living up to its recruiting rankings and control the line of scrimmage.
With only 26 sacks in 2014, the line must also be able to generate more consistent pressure on
the quarterback. DE Andrew Trumbetti, who played in 12 of 13 games as a freshman and
flashed signs of brilliance, should be much improved after a full year in the program. Trumbetti

and Day, who will play both tackle and end, will be relied upon to generate quarterback
pressure, while nose tackle Jarron Jones and backup Daniel Cage will be relied upon to plug up
the middle of the line. With everyone in the two deep returning except Just Utupo, the defensive
line should improve considerably in 2015.

Linebackers Should Continue Success

Last years season ending injury to MLB Joe Schmidt proved to be the turning point in
the Irish season, as the defense fell apart without his vocal leadership over the last four games
of the season. The team recognized his value when they voted him team MVP, but Schmidt is
not the most talented player on the team, or even the defense. That honor belongs to Jaylon
Smith, a junior who has a chance to be a top pick in the NFL draft and is the heir apparent to
Manti Te'o as the anchor of the Notre Dame defense. Smith has started since his first day on
campus, and set an ND record with 63 tackles as a freshman in 2013. Last year Smith was the
only thing holding the ravaged defense together, as he recorded 112 tackles, including 65 solo
tackles. He also led the Irish with 9 tackles for loss and tied for second with 3.5 sacks. With
Smith, Schmidt, Nyles Morgan, James Onwalu, and Jarret Grace all returning Notre Dame has
an embarrassment of riches at the linebacker position. Defensive Coordinator Brian
VanGorders biggest problem may be where to play everybody, as Smith, Schmidt, and Morgan
all played on the inside last year. However he decides to arrange the players the linebackers
should be the emotional heart of the defense and should preform as one of the best linebacker
units in the country.

Secondary Welcomes Back Star

The worst news to come out of the summer of 2014 was the suspension of KeiVarae
Russell. The star cornerback was slated to be a top performer on the 2014 team and was
expected by coaches to be one of the best cornerbacks in the country. Instead the team was
forced to start Cole Luke and Devin Butler at the cornerback positions. Butler struggled the
entire year, but Cole Luke was a revelation, and this year the cornerback position looks to be
stronger than ever. With the return of Russell and the ability of Luke, Notre Dame has two
shutdown cornerbacks for the first time in the Kelly era. The two starting corners can both be
trusted to guard receivers one-on-one, which will give VanGorder increased flexibility to position
safeties wherever he wants without worrying about leaving his cornerbacks on an island.
Speaking of safeties, the team looks for improved performance from experienced safeties Elijah
Shumate and Max Redfield. If safety play improves to a level on par with the cornerback play
Notre Dame should have one of the best secondaries in the country.

Special Teams
Despite his reputation as an unreliable field goal kicker and his disastrous November,
Kyle Brindza was a force in field position, averaging 41.5 yards per punt and generating
touchbacks on 65% of his kickoffs. With Brindza lost to graduation, Notre Dame looks to redshirt
freshman Tyler Newsome and true freshman Justin Yoon to replace his production on punts and

in the kicking game, respectively. The two players are relative unknowns as they have yet to play
in college, but the coaching staff has recruited well at these positions and the freshman will be
expected to contribute. In the return game the loss of Greg Bryant to academic suspension for
the season will hurt, but any of the talented and young wide receivers can step in to help Will
Fuller and Amir Carlisle.

Schedule Factors
2015 Schedule

Date

Opponent

Proj F/+ Rank

Sep 5

Texas

43

Sep 12

@ Virginia

57

Sep 19

Georgia Tech

17

Sep 26

Massachusetts

111

Oct 3

@ Clemson

18

Oct 10

Navy

58

Oct 17

USC

12

Oct 31

@ Temple

55

Nov 7

@ Pittsburgh

40

Nov 14

Wake Forest

90

Nov 21

Boston College*

60

Nov 28

@ Stanford

10

*Shamrock Series game in Fenway Park

Overall, this presents as a very manageable schedule for the Irish. The key to the
season will be the three week stretch of playing at Clemson, home to Navy, and home to USC.

The Clemson game will be played in the harshest environment the team will encounter this
season, and Clemson rates as an ACC favorite with a possible Heisman contender in
quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Navy game should be an easy win based on talent, but the
Irish have struggled with Navy the past two years and struggled even more with the game after
Navy (28-21 loss to Pittsburgh in 2013, 55-31 loss to Arizona State in 2014). This year there will
be no time for a post-Navy hangover as the Irish take on rival USC in the biggest game of the
season. If Notre Dame makes it to the post-USC bye week with zero or one losses they will be in
prime contention for a playoff bid. Other obvious pitfalls include Georgia Tech (who runs Navys
difficult offense with even better personnel) and a season ending trip to Stanford. Between
Georgia Tech, Clemson, USC, and Stanford, the Irish play two of the favorites in both the Pac-12
and ACC, so there shouldnt be concerns with the schedules ability to impress the playoff
committee.

Season Projection

The five years of Brian Kellys tenure have consisted of increasing amounts of promise,
improved recruiting of talent, and mostly stagnant results on the field. Despite recruiting
significantly better talent than Charlie Weis, Kelly has managed to significantly improve upon his
first year record (achieved with Weiss players) of 8-5 only once since, a 12-0 regular season in
2012. That was the best season the program has had since Lou Holtz, but it has proven to be

more of an outlier than a harbinger of consistent success. This year, for the first time since that
2012 season, there are no significant excuses for the Irish to not win at least 9 games in the
regular season. Everett Gloson did transfer, but Malik Zaire is 3 years into the program and
should be able to capably step in and run the offense. The only other significant loss was Greg
Bryant (academic suspension), but he was not projected to be a starter. With 17 starters
returning, including basically an entire starting defense, this may be the year that we figure out
the ceiling of this program under Brian Kelly, for better or worse. Notre Dame has had talent in
the program for years, and this is the year that the coaching staff must demonstrate that that
talent is being properly developed and that their great recruiting can translate into on field
success. That being said, another 4 or 5 loss season would be an unqualified disaster. Brian
Kelly was brought in to achieve a consistent level of success higher than 4 loss seasons. Notre
Dame should be seriously competing for the playoff year in and year out, and the team is not
going to get much more talented or experienced than this. I think a 10 win season is the most
likely outcome, with the most likely losses to Georgia Tech and Stanford. A 10-2 season and a
big 6 bowl would not be as good as reaching the playoffs, but it would demonstrate a healthy
program and set up a big 2016 season. An 11-1 or 12-0 season is as likely as an 8-4 or 9-3
season depending on the teams luck with turnovers and injuries. A playoff season would be
absolutely huge for the program by validating the past 5 seasons of Brian Kellys tenure and
demonstrating Notre Dames ability to remain nationally relevant. An 8-4 season would be
equally devastating for the program. It would call into question Kellys ability to coach the team
to success, it would push us further out of the national consciousness and harm recruiting, and

it would lead to another offseason of questions and turmoil in 2016. At this point in the programs
development it is fair for the fan base to expect playoff contention, at the very least big 6 bowls.
It is up to Brian Kelly to deliver on those expectations.