Moore's law 1

Moore's law
Moore's law is the observation that
over the history of computing
hardware, the number of transistors on
integrated circuits doubles
approximately every two years. The
period often quoted as "18 months" is
due to Intel executive David House,
who predicted that period for a
doubling in chip performance (being a
combination of the effect of more
transistors and their being faster).[1]

The law is named after Intel

co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who
described the trend in his 1965
paper.[2][3][4] The paper noted that the
number of components in integrated
circuits had doubled every year from
the invention of the integrated circuit
Plot of CPU transistor counts against dates of introduction. Note the logarithmic vertical
in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that scale; the line corresponds to exponential growth with transistor count doubling every two
the trend would continue "for at least years.
ten years".[5] His prediction has proven
to be uncannily accurate, in part
because the law is now used in the
semiconductor industry to guide
long-term planning and to set targets
for research and development.[6]

The capabilities of many digital

electronic devices are strongly linked
to Moore's law: processing speed,
An Osborne Executive portable computer, from
memory capacity, sensors and even the
1982 with a Zilog Z80 4MHz CPU, and a 2007
number and size of pixels in digital Apple iPhone with a 412MHz ARM11 CPU. The
cameras.[7] All of these are improving Executive weighs 100 times as much, is nearly
at (roughly) exponential rates as well 500 times as large by volume, costs
approximately 10 times as much (adjusting for
(see Other formulations and similar
inflation), and has 1/100th the clock frequency of
laws). This exponential improvement the phone.
has dramatically enhanced the impact
of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy.[8] Moore's law describes a driving force of
technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.[9][10]

This trend has continued for more than half a century. Sources in 2005 expected it to continue until at least 2015 or
2020.[11][12] However, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has growth
slowing at the end of 2013,[13] after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every three years.
Moore's law 2

History
The term "Moore's law" was coined around 1970 by the Caltech
professor, VLSI pioneer, and entrepreneur Carver Mead in reference
to a statement by Gordon E. Moore.[3][14] Predictions of similar
increases in computer power had existed years prior. Alan Turing in
his 1950 paper Computing Machinery and Intelligence had predicted
that by the turn of the millennium, we would have "computers with a
storage capacity of about 109", what today we would call "128
megabytes." Moore may have heard Douglas Engelbart, a
co-inventor of today's mechanical computer mouse, discuss the
projected downscaling of integrated circuit size in a 1960 lecture.[15]
A New York Times article published August 31, 2009, credits
Gordon Moore in 2006
Engelbart as having made the prediction in 1959.[16]

Moore's original statement that transistor counts had doubled every year can be found in his publication "Cramming
more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965:
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year...
Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the
rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant
for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost
will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.[2]
Moore slightly altered the formulation of the law over time, in retrospect bolstering the perceived accuracy of his
law.[17] Most notably, in 1975, Moore altered his projection to a doubling every two years.[18][19] Despite popular
misconception, he is adamant that he did not predict a doubling "every 18 months." However, David House, an Intel
colleague, had factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double
in performance every 18months.[20]
In April 2005, Intel offered US$10,000 to purchase a copy of the original Electronics Magazine issue in which
Moore's article appeared.[21] An engineer living in the United Kingdom was the first to find a copy and offer it to
Intel.[22]
Moore's law 3

Other formulations and similar laws

Several measures of digital technology
are improving at exponential rates
related to Moore's law, including the
size, cost, density and speed of
components. Moore himself wrote only
about the density of components (or
transistors) at minimum cost.
Transistors per integrated circuit.
The most popular formulation is of the
doubling of the number of transistors
on integrated circuits every two years.
At the end of the 1970s, Moore's law
became known as the limit for the
number of transistors on the most
complex chips. The graph at the top PC hard disk capacity (in GB). The plot is logarithmic, so the fitted line corresponds to
shows this trend holds true today. exponential growth.

Density at minimum cost per

transistor. This is the formulation given in Moore's 1965 paper.[2] It is not just about the density of transistors that
can be achieved, but about the density of transistors at which the cost per transistor is the lowest.[23] As more
transistors are put on a chip, the cost to make each transistor decreases, but the chance that the chip will not work
due to a defect increases. In 1965, Moore examined the density of transistors at which cost is minimized, and
observed that, as transistors were made smaller through advances in photolithography, this number would increase at
"a rate of roughly a factor of two per year".[2] Current state-of-the-art photolithography tools use deep ultraviolet
(DUV) light from excimer lasers with wavelengths of 248 and 193nm the dominant lithography technology
today is thus also called "excimer laser lithography"[24][25] which has enabled minimum feature sizes in chip
manufacturing to shrink from 0.5 micrometer in 1990 to 45 nanometers and below in 2010. This trend is expected to
continue into this decade for even denser chips, with minimum features approaching 10 nanometers. Excimer laser
lithography has thus played a critical role in the continued advance of Moore's Law for the last 20 years.[26]

Hard disk storage cost per unit of information. A similar law (sometimes called Kryder's Law) has held for hard
disk storage cost per unit of information.[27] The rate of progression in disk storage over the past decades has
actually sped up more than once, corresponding to the utilization of error correcting codes, the magnetoresistive
effect and the giant magnetoresistive effect. The current rate of increase in hard drive capacity is roughly similar to
the rate of increase in transistor count. Recent trends show that this rate has been maintained into 2007.[28]
Network capacity. According to Gerry/Gerald Butters,[29][30] the former head of Lucent's Optical Networking
Group at Bell Labs, there is another version, called Butter's Law of Photonics,[31] a formulation which deliberately
parallels Moore's law. Butter's law[32] says that the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every
nine months. Thus, the cost of transmitting a bit over an optical network decreases by half every nine months. The
availability of wavelength-division multiplexing (sometimes called "WDM") increased the capacity that could be
placed on a single fiber by as much as a factor of 100. Optical networking and dense wavelength-division
multiplexing (DWDM) is rapidly bringing down the cost of networking, and further progress seems assured. As a
result, the wholesale price of data traffic collapsed in the dot-com bubble. Nielsen's Law says that the bandwidth
available to users increases by 50% annually.[33]
Moore's law 4

Pixels per dollar. Similarly, Barry

Hendy of Kodak Australia has plotted
the "pixels per dollar" as a basic
measure of value for a digital camera,
demonstrating the historical linearity
(on a log scale) of this market and the
opportunity to predict the future trend
of digital camera price, LCD and LED
screens and resolution.

The Great Moore's Law

Compensator (TGMLC), generally
referred to as bloat, and also known as
Wirth's law, is the principle that
successive generations of computer
software acquire enough bloat to offset
Pixels per dollar based on Australian recommended retail price of Kodak digital cameras
the performance gains predicted by
Moore's Law. In a 2008 article in
InfoWorld, Randall C. Kennedy,[34] formerly of Intel, introduces this term using successive versions of Microsoft
Office between the year 2000 and 2007 as his premise. Despite the gains in computational performance during this
time period according to Moore's law, Office 2007 performed the same task at half the speed on a prototypical year
2007 computer as compared to Office 2000 on a year 2000 computer.

Library expansion was calculated in 1945 by Fremont Rider to double in capacity every 16 years, if sufficient space
were made available.[35] He advocated replacing bulky, decaying printed works with miniaturized microform analog
photographs, which could be duplicated on-demand for library patrons or other institutions. He did not foresee the
digital technology that would follow decades later to replace analog microform with digital imaging, storage, and
transmission mediums. Automated, potentially lossless digital technologies allowed vast increases in the rapidity of
information growth in an era that is now sometimes called an "Information Age".

As a target for industry and a self-fulfilling prophecy

Although Moore's law was initially made in the form of an observation and forecast, the more widely it became
accepted, the more it served as a goal for an entire industry. This drove both marketing and engineering departments
of semiconductor manufacturers to focus enormous energy aiming for the specified increase in processing power that
it was presumed one or more of their competitors would soon actually attain. In this regard, it can be viewed as a
self-fulfilling prophecy.[6][36]

Moore's second law

Further information: Rock's law
As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls, the cost for producers to fulfill Moore's law follows an opposite
trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips. Rising
manufacturing costs are an important consideration for the sustaining of Moore's law.[37] This had led to the
formulation of "Moore's second law", aka Rock's law, which is that the capital cost of a semiconductor fab also
increases exponentially over time.[38][39]
Materials required for advancing technology (e.g., photoresists and other polymers and industrial chemicals) are
derived from natural resources such as petroleum and so are affected by the cost and supply of these resources.
Nevertheless, photoresist costs are coming down through more efficient delivery, though shortage risks remain.[40]
Moore's law 5

Major enabling factors and future trends

Numerous innovations by a large number of scientists and engineers have been significant factors in the sustenance
of Moores law since the beginning of the integrated circuit (IC) era. Whereas a detailed list of such significant
contributions would certainly be desirable, below just a few innovations are listed as examples of breakthroughs that
have played a critical role in the advancement of integrated circuit technology by more than six orders of magnitude
in less than five decades:
The foremost contribution, which is the raison detre for Moore's law, is the invention of the integrated circuit
itself, credited contemporaneously to Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments[41] and Robert Noyce at Intel.[42]
The invention of the complementary metaloxidesemiconductor (CMOS) process by Frank Wanlass in 1963.[43]
A number of advances in CMOS technology by many workers in the semiconductor field since the work of
Wanlass have enabled the extremely dense and high-performance ICs that the industry makes today.
The invention of the dynamic random access memory (DRAM) technology by Robert Dennard at I.B.M. in
1967.[44] that made it possible to fabricate single-transistor memory cells. Numerous subsequent major advances
in memory technology by leading researchers worldwide have contributed to the ubiquitous low-cost,
high-capacity memory modules in diverse electronic products.
The invention of deep UV excimer laser photolithography by Kanti Jain at I.B.M. in 1982,[24][25][26] that has
enabled the smallest features in ICs to shrink from 500 nanometers in 1990 to as low as 32 nanometers in 2011.
With the phenomenal advances made in excimer laser photolithography tools by numerous researchers and
companies, this trend is expected to continue into this decade for even denser chips, with minimum features
reaching below 10 nanometers. From an even broader scientific perspective, since the invention of the laser in
1960, the development of excimer laser lithography has been highlighted as one of the major milestones in the
50-year history of the laser.[45][46][47]
Computer industry technology "roadmaps" predict (as of 2001) that Moore's law will continue for several chip
generations. Depending on and after the doubling time used in the calculations, this could mean up to a hundredfold
increase in transistor count per chip within a decade. The semiconductor industry technology roadmap uses a
three-year doubling time for microprocessors, leading to a tenfold increase in the next decade.[48] Intel was reported
in 2005 as stating that the downsizing of silicon chips with good economics can continue during the next decade,[]
and in 2008 as predicting the trend through 2029.[49]
Some of the new directions in research that may allow Moore's law to continue are:
Researchers from IBM and Georgia Tech created a new speed record when they ran a silicon/germanium helium
supercooled transistor at 500 gigahertz (GHz).[50] The transistor operated above 500GHz at 4.5 K
(451F/268.65C)[51] and simulations showed that it could likely run at 1THz (1,000GHz). However, this
trial only tested a single transistor.
As an example of the impact of deep-ultraviolet excimer laser photolithography,[24][25] in continuing the advances
in semiconductor chip fabrication,[26] IBM researchers announced in early 2006 that they had developed a
technique to print circuitry only 29.9nm wide using 193nm ArF excimer laser lithography. IBM claims that this
technique may allow chip makers to use then-current methods for seven more years while continuing to achieve
results forecast by Moore's law. New methods that can achieve smaller circuits are expected to be substantially
more expensive.
In April 2008, researchers at HP Labs announced the creation of a working memristor: a fourth basic passive
circuit element whose existence had previously only been theorized. The memristor's unique properties allow for
the creation of smaller and better-performing electronic devices.[52]
In February 2010, Researchers at the Tyndall National Institute in Cork, Ireland announced a breakthrough in
transistors with the design and fabrication of the world's first junctionless transistor. The research led by Professor
Jean-Pierre Colinge was published in Nature Nanotechnology and describes a control gate around a silicon
nanowire that can tighten around the wire to the point of closing down the passage of electrons without the use of
Moore's law 6

junctions or doping. The researchers claim that the new junctionless transistors can be produced at 10-nanometer
scale using existing fabrication techniques.[53]
In April 2011, a research team at the University of Pittsburgh announced the development of a single-electron
transistor 1.5 nanometers in diameter made out of oxide based materials. According to the researchers, three
"wires" converge on a central "island" which can house one or two electrons. Electrons tunnel from one wire to
another through the island. Conditions on the third wire results in distinct conductive properties including the
ability of the transistor to act as a solid state memory.[54]
In February 2012, a research team at the University of New South Wales announced the development of the first
working transistor consisting of a single atom placed precisely in a silicon crystal (not just picked from a large
sample of random transistors).[55] Moore's Law expected for this milestone to be reached, in lab, by 2020.

The trend of scaling for NAND flash memory allows doubling of components
manufactured in the same wafer area in less than 18 months.

Ultimate limits of the law

On 13 April 2005, Gordon Moore
stated in an interview that the law
cannot be sustained indefinitely: "It
can't continue forever. The nature of
exponentials is that you push them out
and eventually disaster happens." He
also noted that transistors would
eventually reach the limits of
miniaturization at atomic levels:

In terms of size [of transistors] Atomistic simulation result for formation of inversion channel (electron density) and
you can see that we're attainment of threshold voltage (IV) in a nanowire MOSFET. Note that the threshold
voltage for this device lies around 0.45 V. Nanowire MOSFETs lie towards the end of the
approaching the size of atoms [48]
ITRS roadmap for scaling devices below 10 nm gate lengths.
which is a fundamental barrier,
but it'll be two or three
generations before we get that farbut that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to
20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor
budgets in the billions.[56]

In January 1995, the Digital Alpha 21164 microprocessor had 9.3 million transistors. This 64-bit processor was a
technological spearhead at the time, even if the circuit's market share remained average. Six years later, a state of the
Moore's law 7

art microprocessor contained more than 40 million transistors. It is theorised that with further miniaturisation, by
2015 these processors should contain more than 15 billion transistors, and by 2020 will be in molecular scale
production, where each molecule can be individually positioned.[57]
In 2003 Intel predicted the end would come between 2013 and 2018 with 16 nanometer manufacturing processes and
5 nanometer gates, due to quantum tunnelling, although others suggested chips could just get bigger, or become
layered.[58] In 2008 it was noted that for the last 30 years it has been predicted that Moore's law would last at least
another decade.[49]
Some see the limits of the law as being far in the distant future. Lawrence Krauss and Glenn D. Starkman announced
an ultimate limit of around 600 years in their paper,[59] based on rigorous estimation of total information-processing
capacity of any system in the Universe.
One could also limit the theoretical performance of a rather practical "ultimate laptop" with a mass of one kilogram
and a volume of one litre. This is done by considering the speed of light, the quantum scale, the gravitational
constant and the Boltzmann constant, giving a performance of 5.4258*10^50 logical operations per second on
approximately 10^31 bits.[60]
Then again, the law has often met obstacles that first appeared insurmountable but were indeed surmounted before
long. In that sense, Moore says he now sees his law as more beautiful than he had realized: "Moore's law is a
violation of Murphy's law. Everything gets better and better."[61]

Futurists and Moore's law

Futurists such as Ray Kurzweil, Bruce Sterling, and Vernor Vinge
believe that the exponential improvement described by Moore's
law will ultimately lead to a technological singularity: a period
where progress in technology occurs almost instantly.[62]
Although Kurzweil agrees that by 2019 the current strategy of
ever-finer photolithography will have run its course, he speculates
that this does not mean the end of Moore's law:
Moore's law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the
fifth paradigm to forecast accelerating price-performance
ratios. Computing devices have been consistently
multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical
calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to
[Newman's] relay-based "[Heath] Robinson" machine that Kurzweil's extension of Moore's law from integrated
cracked the Lorenz cipher, to the CBS vacuum tube circuits to earlier transistors, vacuum tubes, relays and
electromechanical computers.
computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the
transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to
the integrated-circuit-based personal computer.[63]

Kurzweil speculates that it is likely that some new type of technology (e.g. optical, quantum computers, DNA
computing) will replace current integrated-circuit technology, and that Moore's Law will hold true long after
2020.[63]
Seth Lloyd shows how the potential computing capacity of a kilogram of matter equals pi times energy divided
by Planck's constant. Since the energy is such a large number and Planck's constant is so small, this equation
generates an extremely large number: about 5.0 * 1050 operations per second.[62]
He believes that the exponential growth of Moore's law will continue beyond the use of integrated circuits into
technologies that will lead to the technological singularity. The Law of Accelerating Returns described by Ray
Moore's law 8

Kurzweil has in many ways altered the public's perception of Moore's Law. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that
Moore's Law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when it was originally intended to apply only to
semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term "Moore's law" in this broader sense to describe ideas like
those put forth by Kurzweil. Kurzweil has hypothesised that Moore's law will apply at least by inference to any
problem that can be attacked by digital computers as is in its essence also a digital problem. Therefore, because of
the digital coding of DNA, progress in genetics may also advance at a Moore's law rate. Moore himself, who never
intended his law to be interpreted so broadly, has quipped:
Moore's law has been the name given to everything that changes exponentially. I say, if Gore invented the
Internet,[64] I invented the exponential.[65]
Michael S. Malone wrote of a Moore's War in the apparent success of Shock and awe in the early days of the Iraq
War.[66] Michio Kaku, an American scientist and physicist, predicted in 2003 that "Moores Law will probably
collapse in 20 years."[67] Following a trademark dispute in October 2012, however, the futurist Mark Pesce named
his 52-LED ambient device (originally LightCloud)[68] Moores Cloud in honor of Moore's Law and the ubiquitous
computing which it engendered. [69]

Consequences and limitations

The ensuing speed of technological change

Technological change is a combination of more and of better technology. A recent study in the journal Science
shows that the peak of the rate of change of the world's capacity to compute information was in the year 1998, when
the world's technological capacity to compute information on general-purpose computers grew at 88% per year.[70]

Transistor count versus computing performance

The exponential processor transistor growth predicted by Moore does not always translate into exponentially greater
practical CPU performance. Let us consider the case of a single-threaded system. According to Moore's law,
transistor dimensions are scaled by 30% (0.7x) every technology generation, thus reducing their area by 50%. This
reduces the delay (0.7x) and therefore increases operating frequency by about 40% (1.4x). Finally, to keep electric
field constant, voltage is reduced by 30%, reducing energy by 65% and power (at 1.4x frequency) by 50%, since
active power = CV2f. Therefore, in every technology generation transistor density doubles, circuit becomes 40%
faster, while power consumption (with twice the number of transistors) stays the same.[71]
Another source of improved performance is due to microarchitecture techniques exploiting the growth of available
transistor count. These increases are empirically described by Pollack's rule which states that performance increases
due to microarchitecture techniques are square root of the number of transistors or the area of a processor.
In multi-core CPUs, the higher transistor density does not greatly increase speed on many consumer applications that
are not parallelized. There are cases where a roughly 45% increase in processor transistors have translated to roughly
1020% increase in processing power.[72] Viewed even more broadly, the speed of a system is often limited by
factors other than processor speed, such as internal bandwidth and storage speed, and one can judge a system's
overall performance based on factors other than speed, like cost efficiency or electrical efficiency.
Moore's law 9

Importance of non-CPU bottlenecks

As CPU speeds and memory capacities have increased, other aspects of performance like memory and disk access
speeds have failed to keep up. As a result, those access latencies are more and more often a bottleneck in system
performance, and high-performance hardware and software have to be designed to reduce their impact.
In processor design, out-of-order execution and on-chip caching and prefetching reduce the impact of memory
latency at the cost of using more transistors and increasing processor complexity. In software, operating systems and
databases have their own finely tuned caching and prefetching systems to minimize the number of disk seeks,
including systems like ReadyBoost that use low-latency flash memory. Some databases can compress indexes and
data, reducing the amount of data read from disk at the cost of using CPU time for compression and
decompression.[73] The increasing relative cost of disk seeks also makes the high access speeds provided by
solid-state disks more attractive for some applications.

Parallelism and Moore's law

Parallel computation has recently become necessary to take full advantage of the gains allowed by Moore's law. For
years, processor makers consistently delivered increases in clock rates and instruction-level parallelism, so that
single-threaded code executed faster on newer processors with no modification.[74] Now, to manage CPU power
dissipation, processor makers favor multi-core chip designs, and software has to be written in a multi-threaded or
multi-process manner to take full advantage of the hardware. Many multi-threaded development paradigms introduce
overhead, and will not see a linear increase in speed vs number of processors. This is particularly true while
accessing shared or dependent resources, due to lock contention. This effect becomes more noticeable as the number
of processors increases. Recently, IBM has been exploring ways to distribute computing power more efficiently by
mimicking the distributional properties of the human brain.[75]

Obsolescence
A negative implication of Moore's Law is obsolescence, that is, as technologies continue to rapidly "improve", these
improvements can be significant enough to rapidly render predecessor technologies obsolete. In situations in which
security and survivability of hardware and/or data are paramount, or in which resources are limited, rapid
obsolescence can pose obstacles to smooth or continued operations.[76]

Notes
[1] "Moore's Law to roll on for another decade" (http:/ / news. cnet. com/ 2100-1001-984051. html). . Retrieved 2011-11-27. "Moore also
affirmed he never said transistor count would double every 18 months, as is commonly said. Initially, he said transistors on a chip would
double every year. He then recalibrated it to every two years in 1975. David House, an Intel executive at the time, noted that the changes
would cause computer performance to double every 18 months."
[2] Moore, Gordon E. (1965). "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits" (http:/ / download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/
Articles-Press_Releases/ Gordon_Moore_1965_Article. pdf) (PDF). Electronics Magazine. p.4. . Retrieved 2006-11-11.
[3] "Excerpts from A Conversation with Gordon Moore: Moores Law" (ftp:/ / download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/ Video-Transcripts/
Excepts_A_Conversation_with_Gordon_Moore. pdf) (PDF). Intel Corporation. 2005. p.1. . Retrieved 2006-05-02.
[4] "1965 "Moore's Law" Predicts the Future of Integrated Circuits" (http:/ / www. computerhistory. org/ semiconductor/ timeline/
1965-Moore. html). Computer History Museum. 2007. . Retrieved 2009-03-19.
[5] Moore 1965, p.5
[6] Disco, Cornelius; van der Meulen, Barend (1998). Getting new technologies together (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=1khslZ-jbgEC&
pg=PA206& lpg=PA206& ots=D38v82mSkm& output=html& sig=ACfU3U2jPixZgKq-PYwVPHDpwO2Zt31puQ). New York: Walter de
Gruyter. pp.206207. ISBN3-11-015630-X. OCLC39391108. . Retrieved 23 August 2008.
[7] Nathan Myhrvold (7 June 2006). "Moore's Law Corollary: Pixel Power" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2006/ 06/ 07/ technology/ circuits/
07essay. html). New York Times. . Retrieved 2011-11-27.
[8] Rauch, Jonathan (January 2001). "The New Old Economy: Oil, Computers, and the Reinvention of the Earth" (http:/ / www. theatlantic. com/
issues/ 2001/ 01/ rauch. htm). The Atlantic Monthly. . Retrieved 28 November 2008.
[9] Keyes, Robert W. (September 2006). "The Impact of Moore's Law" (http:/ / ieeexplore. ieee. org/ xpl/ freeabs_all. jsp?arnumber=4785857).
Solid State Circuits Newsletter. . Retrieved 28 November 2008.
Moore's law 10

[10] Liddle, David E. (September 2006). "The Wider Impact of Moore's Law" (http:/ / www. ieee. org/ portal/ site/ sscs/ menuitem.
f07ee9e3b2a01d06bb9305765bac26c8/ index. jsp?& pName=sscs_level1_article& TheCat=2165& path=sscs/ 06Sept& file=Liddle. xml).
Solid State Circuits Newsletter. . Retrieved 28 November 2008.
[11] The trend begins with the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958. See the graph on the bottom of page 3 of Moore's original presentation
of the idea.
[12] Kanellos, Michael (19 April 2005). "New Life for Moore's Law" (http:/ / news. cnet. com/ New-life-for-Moores-Law/
2009-1006_3-5672485. html). cnet. . Retrieved 2009-03-19.
[13] http:/ / www. itrs. net/ Links/ 2010ITRS/ 2010Update/ ToPost/ 2010Tables_ORTC_ITRS. xls
[14] "Moore's Law - The Genius Lives On" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070713083830/ http:/ / www. ieee. org/ portal/ site/ sscs/
menuitem. f07ee9e3b2a01d06bb9305765bac26c8/ index. jsp?& pName=sscs_level1_article& TheCat=2165& path=sscs/ 06Sept&
file=Gelsinger. xml). IEEE solid-state circuits society newsletter. September 2006. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ieee. org/
sscs-news) on 2007-07-13. .
[15] Markoff, John (18 April 2005). "It's Moore's Law But Another Had The Idea First" (http:/ / www. webcitation. org/ 62Ai5rX4b). The New
York Times. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2005/ 04/ 18/ technology/ 18moore. html) on 4 October 2011. . Retrieved
4 October 2011.
[16] Markoff, John (31 August 2009). "After the Transistor, a Leap Into the Microcosm" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2009/ 09/ 01/ science/
01trans. html?ref=science). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2009-08-31.
[17] Ethan Mollick (2006). "Establishing Moore's Law" (http:/ / www2. computer. org/ portal/ web/ csdl/ doi/ 10. 1109/ MAHC. 2006. 45). IEEE
Annals of the History of Computing. . Retrieved 2008-10-18.
[18] Moore, G.E. (1975). "Progress in digital integrated electronics" (http:/ / ieeexplore. ieee. org/ xpls/ abs_all. jsp?arnumber=1478174). IEEE. .
Retrieved 2011-11-27.
[19] "Excerpts from A Conversation with Gordon Moore: Moores Law" (ftp:/ / download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/
Video-Transcripts/ Excepts_A_Conversation_with_Gordon_Moore. pdf). Intel. . Retrieved 2011-08-22.
[20] Although originally calculated as a doubling every year,Gordon E. Moore (1965-04-19). "Cramming more components onto integrated
circuits" (ftp:/ / download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/ Articles-Press_Releases/ Gordon_Moore_1965_Article. pdf). Electronics. .
Retrieved 2011-08-22. Moore later refined the period to two years. "Excerpts from A Conversation with Gordon Moore: Moores Law" (ftp:/ /
download. intel. com/ museum/ Moores_Law/ Video-Transcripts/ Excepts_A_Conversation_with_Gordon_Moore. pdf). Intel. . Retrieved
2011-08-22. In this second source Moore also suggests that the version that is often quoted as "18 months" is due to David House, an Intel
executive, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and them being
faster).
[21] Michael Kanellos (2005-04-12). "$10,000 reward for Moore's Law original" (http:/ / news. zdnet. co. uk/ 0,39020330,39194694,00. htm).
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[69] http:/ / www. engadget. com/ 2012/ 10/ 13/ moorescloud-light-runs-linux-puts-lamp-on-your-lamp/

[70] Hilbert, Martin; Lpez, Priscila (2011). "The Worlds Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information". Science
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References

Further reading
Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation. Edited by David C. Brock. Philadelphia: Chemical
Heritage Press, 2006. ISBN 0-941901-41-6. OCLC66463488.

External links

News
Hewlett Packard outlines computer memory of the future (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8609885.
stm) BBC News, Thursday, 8 April 2010

Articles
Moore's Law Raising the Bar (http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Printed_Materials/
Moores_Law_Backgrounder.pdf)
Intel press kit (http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/index.htm) released for
Moore's Law's 40th anniversary, with a 1965 sketch (ftp://download.intel.com/pressroom/images/events/
moores_law_40th/Moores_Law_Original_Graph.jpg) by Moore
The Lives and Death of Moore's Law (http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html) By Ilkka
Tuomi; a detailed study on Moore's Law and its historical evolution and its criticism (http://www.kurzweilai.
net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0593.html) by Kurzweil.
Moore says nanoelectronics face tough challenges (http://news.com.com/2100-1006_3-5607422.html) By
Michael Kanellos, CNET News.com, 9 March 2005
It's Moore's Law, But Another Had The Idea First (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/18/technology/
18moore.html) by John Markoff
Gordon Moore reflects on his eponymous law (http://www.sciam.com/article.
cfm?id=gordon-e-moore---part-2&page=1) Interview with W. Wayt Gibbs in Scientific American
Law that has driven digital life: The Impact of Moore's Law (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/
4449711.stm) A comprehensive BBC News article, 18 April 2005
IBM Research Demonstrates Path for Extending Current Chip-Making Technique (http://www-03.ibm.com/
press/us/en/pressrelease/19260.wss) Press release from IBM on new technique for creating line patterns, 20
Moore's law 13

February 2006
Understanding Moore's Law By Jon Hannibal Stokes (http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.
ars) 20 February 2003
The Technical Impact of Moore's Law (http://www.ieee.org/portal/site/sscs/menuitem.
f07ee9e3b2a01d06bb9305765bac26c8/index.jsp?&pName=sscs_level1_article&TheCat=2165&path=sscs/
06Sept&file=Keyes.xml) IEEE solid-state circuits society newsletter; September 2006
MIT Technology Review article: Novel Chip Architecture Could Extend Moore's Law (http://www.
technologyreview.com/Infotech/18063/)
Moore's Law seen extended in chip breakthrough (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/01/27/AR2007012700018.html)
Intel Says Chips Will Run Faster, Using Less Power (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/27/technology/
27chip.html?em&ex=1170046800&en=59a4d10473c4a8c8&ei=5087 )
No Technology has been more disruptive... (http://www.slideshare.net/Christiansandstrom/
no-technology-has-been-more-disruptive-presentation/) Slide show of microchip growth
Online talk Moore's Law Forever? (http://nanohub.org/resources/188/) by Dr. Lundstrom

Data
Intel (IA-32) CPU Speeds (http://wi-fizzle.com/compsci/) 19942005. Speed increases in recent years have
seemed to slow down with regard to percentage increase per year (available in PDF or PNG format).
Current Processors Chart (http://mysite.verizon.net/pchardwarelinks/current_cpus.htm)
International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) (http://www.itrs.net/)

FAQs
A C|net FAQ about Moore's Law (http://news.com.com/FAQ+Forty+years+of+Moores+Law/
2100-1006_3-5647824.html?tag=nefd.lede)
Article Sources and Contributors 14

Article Sources and Contributors

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Airplaneman, Akubhai, Alansohn, Ale And Quail, AlexTingle, AlexeySmirnov, Alfie66, Algr, Ali Esfandiari, Alotau, Altenmann, Aluvus, Amatulic, Amoss, Anastrophe, Andreditor,
AndrewWTaylor, Andycjp, Animaniac1217, AnselGrogan, Antandrus, Anthonzi, Antonio Lopez, Anville, Apdevries, ArachanoxReal, Araf2dda, Arch dude, Army1987, Arnold the Frog,
ArnoldReinhold, Artur Buchhorn, Ashmoo, Auntof6, Avia, Avoided, AxelBoldt, Badon, Balderdash707, BaronVonYiffington, Barry.hendy, Beatnik8983, Belinrahs, BenB4, Bender235, Bhaak,
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Impulse, Card, Carlosguitar, CaseyE3100, Catgirl, Cburnett, Ccloutier, Charles Matthews, CharlesGillingham, ChrisfromHouston, Christian75, Clipjoint, Cntras, Codinghorror, Coemgenus,
ColinJF, Combatentropy, CommonsDelinker, Connelly, Constancespry, Conversion script, Copsewood, Corvus, Cs82, Cubefox, Cunya, Curtdbz, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, DSRH, Danski14, DarExc,
Dario D., Darkwind, Darrell Greenwood, David Souther, DeadEyeArrow, DeadlyAssassin, Delirium, DerHexer, Dex1337, Dicklyon, Dillard421, Disavian, Discospinster, Diza, Dmccreary,
DocWatson42, Donfbreed, Double sharp, DragonKore, Draknfyre, Drevicko, Drmies, Dtneilson, DuncanHill, Edivorce, Egil, Egmontaz, ElKevbo, Eliyahu S, Elockid, Elwikipedista,
Emmasludds, Emre D., Emurphy42, Epasion, Epbr123, Escape Orbit, Evgeny, Extra999, Eyu100, Fakechampion, Falcon8765, FatalError, Ffx, Figureskatingfan, Finngall, Fireice, FrancoGG,
Frankie0607, Frap, Fruit.Smoothie, Fusionmix, GEBStgo, GMUrem, Gabbe, Gaetanomarano, Gaius Cornelius, Gap9551, GavinBoyd1211, Gbear2008, Gblane1, Gelwood, Germaninventor,
Giftlite, Gjeremy, Glacialfox, Glane23, Gogo Dodo, GoingBatty, Googol30, Gracefool, GraemeL, GraemeMcRae, Grafen, Graham87, Greg Grahame, GregorB, Grey1618, Groogle, Ground Zero,
Grubber, Guiding light, Guy Harris, Guy M, Gusegn, Hamsterlopithecus, Harland1, HarryHenryGebel, Hathawayc, Hcobb, Headbomb, Hede2000, HenryLi, HereToHelp, Heron, HiraV,
Hudon689, Hurricane111, I'm me 101, Iain.mcclatchie, Ilkka, Imperi, Imroy, Ingolfson, Insanity Incarnate, Intgr, IronGargoyle, Isaac Rabinovitch, ItsZippy, IvanLanin, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, JForget,
Jackfork, Jaganath, Jake Nelson, Jakensolo, Japs 88, Jasontaylor, Jbw2, Jeepday, Jerryobject, Jerryseinfeld, Jesse V., Jfraser, Jimbo Wales, Jj137, Joachim Schrod, John, JohnSchmidt85,
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Kingnicholas, Kingpin13, Kjellmikal, Klilidiplomus, Kokopellimama, Kvng, L33tminion, LaMenta3, Landroo, Ldo, Leafyplant, Leevanjackson, Legare, Lid, Liesel Hess, Liftarn, Lonestarnot,
LorenzoB, LouScheffer, Luca290782, LukeSurl, Lumos3, Luna Santin, M Tea square, MECU, Macintosh User, Magiraud, Male1979, Malleus Fatuorum, Mandarax, MarnetteD, Martial75,
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Mike.lifeguard, MikeWren, Mikeblas, Mild Bill Hiccup, Mini-Geek, Minority Report, Mirror Vax, Mlpkr, Mo0, Mooncow, Moriori, MtneerInTN, Mudgen, Muleattack, MureninC, Mushroom,
Myanw, Mycroft7, NZUlysses, Nakon, Nanshu, Narco, Neelix, Neilc, NeonMerlin, Neutrality, NewEnglandYankee, Nickpowerz, NickyMcLean, Nicoli nicolivich, Nigels, Nixdorf, Nopetro,
Norm mit, Ohanian, Ohnoitsjamie, Oldrtyrabi, Ole Marius, Oleg Alexandrov, OmbudsmanOne, Omegatron, Onorem, OrgasGirl, Orphic, PabloStraub, Pakaran, Paladinwannabe2, Paranoid,
Patchouli, Paul August, PaulTanenbaum, Peterl, Peyre, Pgan002, Phil Boswell, PhilKnight, Philip Trueman, Philosophistry, Phocks, Pietdesomere, Piotrus, Plastikspork, Pnm, Pol098, Populus,
Pseudo-Richard, QRX, QcRef87, Qwerty Binary, Qwfp, R'n'B, RDBury, RadioFan, Ral315, Rangoon11, Raryel, RayBirks, Rdancer, Rdsmith4, Reisio, Remurmur, Rentar, Repku, Reporter
Nielsen, Reportingsjr, RexNL, Rheumatictangle, Rich Farmbrough, Richi, Ricosenna, Rijkbenik, Rilak, Rj, Rjwilmsi, Rob.derosa, Robert K S, Robert Merkel, Robertcathles, Robertvan1, Robma,
Roentgenium111, Rollgood, RossPatterson, Rrburke, Rsheil, RustB, Ruud Koot, Rwell3471, S.K., Saberwyn, Sampo Torgo, Sangak, Scangemi, Schmiteye, SeanMack, Selket, Sethc,
Shadowjams, Shell Kinney, Shortskaterboy1, Simetrical, Sina Kardar, Singularitarian, Sjjupadhyay, Smack, Snowolf, Someoneinmyheadbutit'snotme, Soren121, Spangineer, Sparkie82,
Spellmaster, Spiffy sperry, Spondoolicks, SpookyMulder, Squady, SqueakBox, Sr10231234, Srich32977, Steppenwulfe, Stirling Newberry, Stuz, SudoGhost, Superbriggs, Swift as an Eagle,
TK-925, Tagishsimon, Tannin, Tarquin, Taw, TechnologyIsPower, Ted Longstaffe, Terryn3, Tesi1700, TestPilot, Thatguyflint, The Anome, The Mad Bomber, The Thing That Should Not Be,
The wub, TheGeoffMeister, TheLastWordSword, TheMadBaron, Thebestofall007, Thebrid, Themindset, Therath, Thereisapurpose, Thirdhomerun, Thorwald, Thue, Thumperward, Tillman,
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