VIRGINIA 2017

ELECTION EVE POLL BRIEFING

______________________________

November 8, 2017
 Virginia 2017 Headlines
People of color were decisive in Virginia 2017 from
the top of the ticket to the bottom
Gillespies over-reliance on anti-immigrant and race-
baiting ads completely backfired
In the final 3 weeks there was noticeable increase in
awareness of the candidate positions on immigration
Voters recognized that Gillespie had heavily
racialized the campaign and moved away from him
2
 Virginia 2017 Headlines
Pundits said this election was a referendum on
immigration reform and the DREAM Act
Virginians are pro-immigrant and support policy
welcoming immigrants

3
 Virginia 2017 Election Eve Poll
Statewide poll of people who voted in the 2017
election, fielded Nov 2-6, 2017
Large samples of Latinos (n=431), Asian Americans
(n=404), African Americans (n=403), Whites (n=497)
Screened sample to likely voters, then asked screening
questions to identify certain voters only
Available in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean,
Vietnamese
4
 Virginia 2017 Election Eve Poll
Northam Hyra Gillespie

Statewide 54 45

Latino 73 24

AAPI 69 29

Black 89 8

White 41 57

0 25 50 75 100

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 5
 Anti-Immigrant Ads Backfired
During his campaign for governor, Ed Gillespie said that sanctuary
cities which try to help immigrants are actually promoting violent
gangs. He said illegal immigrants are a dangerous threat to public
safety, and that immigrants from Central America are violent gang
members who rape and kill people in Virginia.
Did these statements make you feel more enthusiastic about Gillespie
or less enthusiastic about Gillespie?

6
Anti-Immigrant Ads Backfired

7
Anti-Immigrant Ads Backfired
Reaction to Gillespie MS-13 Sanctuary City Ad
More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic
90

80
83
70
69 67
60
58
50
-34 -45 -32 -73 -23 52
40

30
29
20 25 26
22
10
10
0
Statewide Latino AAPI Black White

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 8
Increased Awareness in Final Weeks
Did anyone contact you and ask you to vote?

44 7-Nov
Latino
32 16-Oct

52
AAPI
40

51
Black
40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 9
 Turnout in Immigrant Communities

10
 Turnout in Immigrant Communities

11
 Turnout in Immigrant Communities

12
 Increased Awareness in Final Weeks
When it comes to immigration, do you know if Northam is
Welcoming Attacking
70 +25
Change from +22
October 16 60 63
59 +15 +11
+13
50
48 46 48
40

30

20

9
10 6
3 3 3
0
Statewide Latino AAPI Black White

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 13
 Increased Awareness in Final Weeks
When it comes to immigration, do you know if Gillespie is
Welcoming Attacking

Change from 45 +19

October 16 +20
40 +18
41 41
35
+16
37
35
30 32
25

20 23
15
19

10
14 13
5 8
0
Statewide Latino AAPI Black White

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 14
 Aware of racialized campaign
During the campaign, some people stated that Ed Gillespie was
following in Donald Trumps racist and divisive footsteps because he
did not strongly condemn the Nazi march in Charlottesville and he
supports Confederate monuments.

Some people stated that Ed Gillespie is like Donald Trump because

he called immigrants from Central America violent gang members
who rape and kill people in Virginia. And that Gillespie ran racist
ads against Latinos.

15
Aware of the racialized campaign
Did you see any ads or discussion about Gillespie
Racism Anti-immigrant
61
Statewide
47

56
Latino
62

50
AAPI
42

64
Black
54

60
White
44

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 16
Calling out racism moved voters

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 17
Calling out racism moved voters

Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll N=1,735 Virginia voters, November 7, 2017 18
 Virginians are pro-immigrant
Pundits said this election was a referendum on
immigration reform and the DREAM Act
Virginians are pro-immigrant and support policy
welcoming immigrants
Statewide 58 percent of all voters said that
Northams support for in-state tuition for DREAMers
made them more enthusiastic about his campaign,
only 30 percent were less enthusiastic, giving him a
net overall boost of 28 points
19
 Virginians are pro-immigrant
Reaction to Northam support for in-state tuition for DREAMers
More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic
90

80
80
70 74
60
61
50 58
51
40 +28 +58 +39 +69 +16
30 35
30
20
22
10 16
11
0
Statewide Latino AAPI Black White

20
 What Virginia Tells Us About 2018
Just like 2016, Latino and Asian American voters
turned out at high rates to oppose a nativist
campaign
African American numbers were also up in Virginia
Anti-immigrant campaign backfired
Angle, Tancredo, Brown, Guadagno, et. al.
The vocal majority doesnt like racism calling out
racism can mobilize voters against nativism
21
 VIRGINIA 2017
ELECTION EVE POLL BRIEFING
______________________________

November 8, 2017