Phoenix Model
Created By
Created On
Decision Variable
Licensing(0/1) 0 192,539.42
No. of Doc Offices in thousands 192,539.42
US 600 192539.4205978
Europe 450
Japan 140
First Year 2009
Tax Rate 40%
Discount Rate 10%
Market Penetration
Launch Year 2010
Peak-Year-Base 2014
Initial Level 0
Peak-Level 0.1
Licensing Benefit 4
Peak-YearActual 2014
Second Generation
Entry Year 2015
Share of Installed Base captured 0.7 Sensitivity
Licensing benefit
Second Generation
Entry Year 2019 0
Share of Installed Base captured 1 1
2
Prices(in thousands) 3
Device 10 4
Royalty 1 5
Costs(in thousands)
Unit manufacturing cost 4
Sales Force Cost 15000
US plant cost 25000
RoW plant cost 20000
Depteciation lifetime 10
licensing fee 0.5
Model
2009 2010 2011 2012
Market Size No. of Doc Offices
US 600 600 600 600
Europe 450 450 450 450
Japan 140 140 140 140
TOTAL 1190 1190 1190 1190
Market penetration 0 0 0.025 0.05
Potential Users 0 0 15 30
Potential Users New 0 0 15 15
Market Share 1 1 1 1
Unit Sales 0 0 15 15
Cumulative Sales 0 0 15 30
Installed Base 0 0 15 30
Revenue
Upfront-new devices 0 0 150 150
Licensing 0 0 0 0
Royalty 0 0 15 30
Total revenue(in thousands) 0 0 165000 180000
Cost
Manufacturing Cost(COGS in thou 0 0 60000 60000
Sales force cost 0 0 15000 15000
Total Cost 0 0 75000 75000
CAPEX
Manufacturing Plant cost 25000
Depreciation 2500 2500 2500 2500
Income Statement
Revenue 0 0 165000 180000
Cost 0 0 75000 75000
EBITDA 0 0 90000 105000
Depreciation 2500 2500 2500 2500
Tax 0 0 35000 41000
PAT -2500 -2500 52500 61500
Cash flow
PAT -2500 -2500 52500 61500
Depreciation 2500 2500 2500 2500
Capex 25000 0 0 0
Cash Flow -25000 0 55000 64000
NPV 192,539.42
Peak Penetration
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
Peak Penetration 250000
192,539.42 Solo
200000 Partner
0.05 0.05 73227.05 85979.39
150000
0.06 0.06 97089.52 110429.3
100000
0.07 0.07
50000 120952 134879.2
0.08 0.08 144814.5
0 159329.1
0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.
0.09 0.09 168676.9 183779
Col umn L Col umn M
0.1 0.1 192539.4 208228.9
0.11 0.11 216401.9 232678.8
0.12 0.12 240264.4 257128.7
0.13 0.13 264126.8 281578.6
0.14 0.14 287989.3 306028.5
0.15 0.15 311851.8 330478.4
0.16 0.16 335714.3 354928.3
0.17 0.17 359576.7 379378.2
0.18 0.18 383439.2 403828.1
0.19 0.19 407301.7 428278
0.2 0.2 431164.2 452727.9
Chart Title
solo partner
300000
192,539.42
0 192539.4 179810.9 250000
1 192539.4 208228.9
200000
2 192539.4 238464.5
3 192539.4 270650.9 150000
4 192539.4 270650.9
5 192539.4 270650.9 100000
50000
0
0 1 2 3 4
s ol o partner
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450
140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
1190 1190 1190 1190 1190 1190 1190 1190 1190
0.075 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
45 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 0 0
15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
45 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
45 60 18 18 18 18 0 0 0
150 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
45 60 18 18 18 18 0 0 0
195000 210000 18000 18000 18000 18000 0 0 0
60000 60000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15000 15000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
75000 75000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0
195000 210000 18000 18000 18000 18000 0 0 0
75000 75000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
120000 135000 18000 18000 18000 18000 0 0 0
2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0
47000 53000 6200 6200 6200 6200 0 0 0
70500 79500 9300 9300 9300 9300 0 0 0
70500 79500 9300 9300 9300 9300 0 0 0
2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
73000 82000 11800 11800 11800 11800 0 0 0
Penetration
11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.2
nL Col umn M
rt Title
2 3 4 5
partner
2022 2023
600 600
450 450
140 140
1190 1190
0.1 0.1
60 60
0 0
0 0
0 0
60 60
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
