Half of Retail Traders Expect Silver To Trade Above $40/oz In 2025

Above, Morgan and Peace silver dollars. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

For those of us who are investors of silver, 2024 has been a good year. 

Currently, silver's COMEX spot price is at $30/toz. This is much better than when 2024 began when silver's spot price was at $23.639/toz.

What will happen in 2025? Some traders speculate we may see a silver spot price of $40/toz.

In any case, Kitco News took a look at silver's performance over the past year and what can be (possibly) expected next year.

Here's a snippet:

By late August, spot silver was once again testing resistance at $30 per ounce, and after an early September pullback saw the gray metal dip below $28, this was followed by a strong rally that saw spot silver break decisively above $30 per ounce on September 12. 

The $30 level was now acting as support for the gray metal, which quickly moved up to $32 by September 23, and after retesting support just above $30 per ounce on October 8, spot silver set what proved to be the annual high of $35 per ounce on October 21. After a brief dip down to the $33.600 range, the spot price once again rose back above $34 per ounce, topping out at $34.442 on October 28th, the last time silver would see trade above $34.   

84 retail traders, fully 48%, expect silver to trade above $40 per ounce next year, with $48 the all-time high set in March 2011.

To read the full article, go here. 

Silver Could Outperform Gold In 2025

Above, a 1889 Morgan dollar graded BU. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

2025 could be an interesting year for precious metals collectors and investors. 

Silver could outperform gold next year, possibly reaching $40/toz. But that depends if there is a recession during the second quarter.

According to Kitco News:

(Kitco News) – While a likely U.S. recession in Q2 would impact industrial demand for silver, most of the gray metal’s recent strengths are expected to carry over into the new year, and the price of silver is projected to outperform gold in 2025, according to analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals.

In their Precious Forecast 2025, the analysts said that if market conditions unfold as expected, they believe silver will outgain gold once again in 2025.

“This year, the silver price has seen the largest percentage gains across the precious metals (+26.82% to the end of November),” they noted. “The beginning of the next phase of the global interest rate cycle earlier in the year has helped both gold and silver. Meanwhile, relentless growth in solar photovoltaic demand and a strong rebound in implied demand from India have also supported the price on the physical side.”

The analysts pointed out that the elevated gold:silver ratio suggests that silver is still historically undervalued relative to gold despite this year’s sector-leading rally. “Silver tends to outperform gold in the later stages of bull markets, and a reversion to the 27-year mean ratio of 67 as a result of a rally in silver implies a price of $40/oz,” they said.

To read more, go here. 

Silver's Potential Breakout

Above, a 1921 Morgan dollar (graded AU). Photo by Armand Vaquer.

The current COMEX spot price for silver is at $32.705. Earlier today, it did briefly breach over $33/toz.

On Monday, it did breach $32/toz for ten hours, the highest level since the November elections.

This like silver is finally getting its due on the spot price market. I'm glad I bought a lot of silver coins while the spot price was in the $20 range.

According to Kitco News:

(Kitco News) – Spot silver gained 4.6% in 10 hours on Monday to top out at $32.268 per ounce, its highest level since precious metals sold off following the U.S. election in early November. According to Eran Tal in the Jerusalem Post, the gray metal is being supported by bullish technical patterns, declining SLV short sales, and rising industrial demand, and a break above key resistance levels could trigger a powerful rally.

Tal said silver’s break back above $32 shows renewed optimism for the precious metal.

“While this surge has drawn fresh attention, it aligns with a broader trend of emerging bullish signals that could pave the way for further price gains,” Tal wrote. “Investor sentiment toward silver has been notably pessimistic in recent months. Ironically, this negative sentiment is proving to be a reason for optimism, as contrarian market dynamics often see silver bounce back during such times.”

He said that several technical and market-based indicators suggest silver may be on the verge of breaking out of its recent period of consolidation.

To read more, go here. 

 

Industrial Demand For Silver To Set New Record High In 2024

Above, 2024 American Silver Eagles. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

While gold has dropped some in value, silver is on the rise this year. For those of us who invested in it while its spot price was in the 20s, this is good news. Currently, COMEX silver spot price is around $30/toz.

The reason for silver's rise in its spot price: industry.

According to Kitco News:

(Kitco News) – The global silver market is on pace to record a physical deficit in 2024 for the fourth consecutive year, with the growth of demand from industry the main driver, according to the latest Interim Silver Market Review from the Silver Institute released Tuesday evening. 

“Record industrial demand and a recovery in jewelry and silverware will lift demand to 1.21 billion ounces in 2024, while mine supply will rise by just 1%,” they said. “Exchange-traded products are on track for their first annual inflows in three years as expectations of Fed rate cuts, periods of dollar weakness and falling yields have raised silver’s investment appeal.” 

The report was authored by Philip Newman, Managing Director at Metals Focus, and Sarah Tomlinson, Director of Mine Supply at the Silver Institute, and it features the latest price, supply and demand data for the current year. 

“The silver price has posted a remarkable rally during 2024-to-date, nearly touching $35 for the first time since 2012,” they wrote. “Through to November 7, prices have surged by 34% since the beginning of this year. Leaving aside a brief drop to a three-year low of 73, the gold:silver ratio has largely held between 80 and 90 so far in 2024.”

To read more, go here.  

Silver Rises 1.65%

The spot price for silver has been in the doldrums for the past several weeks. It was in the $22.00/toz range last week. This was enticing enough for me to buy some 2024 American Silver Eagles.

However, silver has gone up 1.65% (at this writing) today. It is now at $23.250/toz.

Much of the increase in silver's spot price (and gold's) is attributed to the recent drone attack in Jordan that killed three U.S. servicemen.

According to Kitco News:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are mildly higher in midday U.S. trading Monday, but down from daily highs, on some safe-haven buying after a terrorist strike in Jordan killed three U.S. soldiers. February gold was last up $6.90 at $2,024.00. March silver was last up $0.248 at $23.12. 

Risk aversion is keener to start the trading week after an Iran-backed Houthi drone strike against U.S. troops in Jordan killed three U.S. soldiers. President Biden said the U.S. would respond.

Will it go even higher or fall back down? We shall see.

 

Price Gains For Gold and Silver

Above, 2023 Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

Silver's spot price has risen to above $24.00/toz. Gold has also seen gains this morning.

According to Kitco News:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Friday. The gold and silver market bulls are still glowing in the aftermath of Wednesday's surprisingly dovish U.S. monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve. The near-term technical postures for gold and silver have also become more bullish this week, inviting the chart-based speculators to the long sides. February gold was last up $13.10 at $2,058.00. March silver was last up $0.169 at $24.555.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open modestly higher when the New York day session begins. The indexes are near this week's contract highs and highs for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record high Thursday.

To read more, go here. 

Silver Tumbles To $24.29/toz

Silver's spot price a week ago looked very promising. It was a "hair's breath" in reach of hitting $26.00/toz.

This week, silver tumbled down. This was actually the first week-ending loss in four weeks. But, as they say, "what goes down, must come up."

Kitco News sees it like this:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are posting strong losses near midday Friday, in the aftermath of a U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department that suggests the U.S. economy is presently in a pretty good spot. Gold prices hit a two-week low today and silver a three-week low. Both markets are headed toward technically bearish weekly low closes on a Friday.

The U.S. Employment Situation Report for November appears to have fallen into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want the Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting U.S. interest rates anytime soon. Many analysts are calling today’s jobs data a "Goldilocks" report that is not too hot and not too cold for the general marketplace.  The jobs report showed the key non-farm payrolls number up 199,000, which is just above market expectations for a rise of 190,000. However, the overall U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in November from 3.9% in October. 

We'll need to wait and see how things go next week. 

Modest Price Gains For Gold and Silver

The week is starting out with gold and silver spot prices getting firmer.

According to Kitco News:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Monday, supported by safe-haven bids amid the Israel-Hamas war and the potential for a wider Middle East conflict. December gold was last up $5.60 at $2,004.10. December silver was last up $0.423 at $23.31.

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has upticked just a bit to start the trading week, despite Israel beginning its anticipated ground war against Hamas in Gaza. There is still the potential for this conflict to escalate to include other countries, including the U.S. That's keeping a floor under safe-haven gold and silver.

To read more, go here. 

Higher Silver Prices Needed To Meet Solar Demand

Above, 2022 American Silver Eagles. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

"You're not going to go and melt grandmother's silver tea service at $35 an ounce."

Since silver is an important "ingredient" in solar panels, it's a wonder why the metal hasn't risen much higher than it has. A friend has solar panels at his house. We joke that we should undertake a guerilla operation to scrape the solar panels for the silver. 

Right now, silver's spot price is hovering around $23/toz. 

Along with solar panels, silver has other industrial uses. One even has silver inside their cell phones. 

From BullionVault:

Today silver is invaluable to solder and brazing alloys, batteries, dentistry, glass coatings, LED chips, medicine, nuclear reactors, photography, photovoltaic (or solar) energy, RFID chips (for tracking parcels or shipments worldwide), semiconductors, touch screens, water purification, wood preservatives and many other industrial uses. 

According to Kitco News, silver's prices need to go higher to meet solar demand. 

They wrote:

(Kitco News) - Investment demand in silver has been fairly disappointing through most of 2023; however, one mining executive said that this is not the segment of the market investors should be paying attention to.

In an interview with Kitco News, on the sidelines of the London Bullion Market Association 2023 Global Precious Metals Conference, Phillips Baker, CEO of Hecla Mining, said that investors need to pay attention to industrial demand and the solar power sector continues to consume massive amounts of the precious metal.

"Right now, ETF demand is the sideshow. Silver's use in Photovoltaic (PV) solar panels is going to drive silver prices higher," he said. "This is not an issue that will be going away anytime soon. The need for Photovoltaic solar panels will drive demand for the next decade.

The bullish comments come as silver prices test resistance just below $23 an ounce, up 9.5% from September's multi-month lows below $21 an ounce.

According to data from the Silver Institute, in the last decade, silver demand has grown 150%. Last year, 140 million ounces of silver was used in solar panels. There are expectations that 160 million ounces will be used in solar panels this year, a 28% increase from last year.

To read more, go here. 

Israel-Hamas War Cause Precious Metals Rally

Gold and silver spot prices had been in the doldrums in recent weeks, but the war between Israel and Hamas seems to have kick-started them, especially gold as it is seen as the "safe haven" precious metal.

Kitco News reported:

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading Monday, following the surprise Hamas attack on Israel over the weekend. Safe-haven demand is featured as the world has just seen an unexpected major geopolitical shock that has traders and investors spooked. December gold was las up $18.40 at $1,863.40 and December silver was up $0.047 at $21.77.

Asian and European stocks were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is unnerved following the weekend Hamas raid on Israel that killed hundreds of civilians and hostages taken. Israel retaliated harshly and declared war on Hamas. This is the largest act of violence seen in Israel in 50 years. Risk aversion is high to start the trading week, as the ramifications of the weekend attack by Hamas are huge, both politically and economically. The U.S. is building up its military presence in the Middle East region.

Currently, the COMEX price for silver is hovering around $21.82/toz. It remains to be seen if the Middle East conflict will send it up over $22.00/toz.

To read more, go here.

Slight Rebound For Gold and Silver

Above, 2022 American Silver Eagles. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

Silver's COMEX spot price fell below $23.00/toz yesterday, but according to Kitco News, it has firmed up a bit this morning even though it is still below $23.00.

Kitco News reported:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are just a bit firmer in early U.S. trading Thursday, after this week's solid selling pressure that drove December gold futures to a 6.5-month low Wednesday. Some tepid short covering in the futures markets is featured in both metals today. A lower U.S. dollar index today is also a friendly daily outside market element for the metals markets. December gold was last up $2.40 at $1,893.30 and December silver was up $0.081 at $22.805. 

To read more, go here. 

Precious Metals Declined

Precious metals aren't doing so well this week. But this is temporary, because what goes down, must come up. The current COMEX spot price for silver is shown above. 

According to Coin News:

On Tuesday, for a second consecutive day, precious metals declined together, with losses ranging from 0.5% for palladium to 1.1% for platinum. Gold ended the day at a more than five-week low.

"Gold and silver prices are down and near daily lows in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise and near multi-year highs, while the U.S. dollar index today scored a 6.5-month high. Both are bearish outside market forces constricting the precious metals bulls," Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Inc, said in a daily research note.

In regards to silver, Coin News reported:

Meanwhile, silver for December delivery settled down 18.9 cents, or 0.8%, to $23.196 an ounce. The close was the weakest since Sept. 14. Silver futures ranged from $23.10 and $23.39. They dropped by 1.9% on Monday.

To read more, go here.

Gold, Silver Spot Prices Weaker

Above, a 90% silver 1976 Kennedy gem proof half dollar. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

Gold and silver spot prices started the week yesterday on a downward note. It hasn't gotten any better today (as yet).

Personally, I see this as an opportunity to buy more silver (gold is too overpriced for my taste). COMEX silver spot price is around $23.13/toz as this is written.

From Kitco News:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Technical selling is featured in both precious metals as the charts remain in bearish postures. U.S. Treasury yields have been on the rise and are near multi-year highs, while the U.S. dollar index hovers near a 6.5-month high—both bearish outside market elements for the metals. December gold was last down $5.50 at $1,931.10 and December silver was down $0.105 at $23.28.

To read more, go here. 

Kitco News: Solid Gains For Gold and Silver

Above, Morgan and Peace silver dollars. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

Some reports of the near 4% rise in silver's spot price yesterday said that it pulled up gold's price. It sounded as if silver acted like "coattails" for gold.

Silver is still over $24/toz today, although it settled down a bit. We'll see how things go as the trading day progresses.

According to Kitco News, the surge in silver was attributed to:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are solidly up in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar index and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields at mid-week. More short covering by the futures traders and perceived bargain hunting are featured in the two precious metals. The technical posture for silver has significantly improved this week, which is inviting chart-based speculators to the long side of that market. December gold was last up $20.60 at $1,946.60 and September silver was up $0.91 at $24.36.

(Note: For exclusive market forecasts and intermarket insights, sign up to my new weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at  https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html )

Traders and investors are anxiously awaiting the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming late this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are set to give speeches. The speeches are expected to provide insights into the future monetary policy direction of their respective central banks. The ECB is expected to pause its recent tightening cycle at its September meeting, while U.S interest rates are expected by most to remain elevated for an extended period due to still-significant upward inflationary pressures. The marketplace will be listening closely for a potential shift in the Fed’s inflation goal. An upward revision to the Fed’s present target of around 2% annual inflation could have major implications for the U.S. bond market, particularly longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, likely increasing Treasury yields which are already at the highest levels since 2007.

To read more, go here. 

Silver, Gold Down

Silver down below $24.00/toz today. It was up in the $23-25 range last week.

According to Kitco News:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are moderately down in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The precious metals are feeling the pressure of rising U.S. Treasury yields and an up-trending U.S. dollar index. December gold was last down $6.30 at $1,968.70 and September silver was down $0.237 at $23.635.

The surprise downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating by Fitch has cast a pall over what was a generally upbeat summertime marketplace. The Fitch downgrade came amid no major changes in U.S. government policies or actions recently, but instead appears to be a recognition by Fitch of the bitter partisanship among lawmakers, including over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, in recent years. Some argue the Fitch news is just an excuse for the U.S. stock indexes to see downside corrections after recent good gains. As for rising bond yields this week, the Treasury yields have actually been trending higher (prices lower) since March. However, bond yields have accelerated their rise the past two days. JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon, when asked about the significance of the Fitch credit downgrade to the U.S., replied that it did not mean much and that the true judge of U.S. creditworthiness is the markets.

This is a good time to buy more silver (and gold) during this price drop.

To read more, go here. 

Silver Price Up 8% For The Week

Above, 2023 Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

For those who have already bought silver when it was low, the good news is the metal soared this week ending above $25.00/toz. 

Kitco News took note of this:

The Good news for consumers is that inflation is definitely going in the right direction; however, they remain elevated, which means that the Federal Reserve is probably not ready to declare victory in its battle against higher consumer prices. But we are closer to the end, breathing new life into the market for now.

While gold prices appear to be on the right side of $1,950, it is still some ways from breaking out as investors continue to sit on the sidelines. According to some analysts, the gold market needs a clear sign from the Fed that it is done raising interest rates before investors jump back into the market.

But that is enough about gold. Silver is the metal attracting some serious attention this week, with prices ending Friday above $25 an ounce. Silver prices are up $1.87 for the week again of more than 8%; its best weekly performance since mid-March.

According to some analysts, the dual headwinds for silver are starting to dissipate. With the Federal Reserve close to its peak rates, silver is benefiting from shifting monetary policy expectations.

At the same time, even in this aggressive monetary policy environment, the economy has been reasonably resilient, which supports silver’s industrial usage. Analysts note that silver should outperform gold if the Federal Reserve can thread the needle and achieve a soft landing.

To read more, go here. 

Gold, Silver Rally After Inflation Report

Above, 2022 Canadian Maple Leaf coins. I just bought some
 2023 Canadian Maple Leaf coins. Photo by Armand Vaquer.

The U.S. inflation report caused the gold and silver markets to see strong rallies yesterday.

From Kitco News:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are sharply up, nearer their daily highs and hit three-week peaks Wednesday, in the aftermath of a morning U.S. inflation report that came in a bit tamer than market expectations.August gold was last up $24.60 at $1,961.70 and September silver was up $1.014 at $24.295.

The U.S. data point of the week saw the consumer price index report for June come in up 3.0%, year-on-year, which is slightly lower than the expected rise of 3.1% and compares to the gain of 4.0% in the May report. The "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at up 4.8%, year-on-year, compared with expectations of up 5.0%. These numbers fall into the camp of the monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve continue to stand pat on interest rate levels.

To read more, go here. 

Gold, Silver See Safe-Haven Price Gains

The "coup" that failed by Russian mercenaries over the weekend has some ramifications geopolitically and monetarily. This includes gold and silver spot prices.

This has resulted in rises in gold and silver.

From Kitco News:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, on safe-haven buying following an aborted insurrection in Russia that has left the nuclear armed nation’s military destabilized and has the rest of the world wondering what happens next. August gold was last up $12.50 at $1,942.10 and July silver was up $0.521 at $22.875.

Geopolitics is back on the front burner of the marketplace following the weekend coup attempt in Russia that has at least temporarily been averted. Still, risk aversion is elevated to start the trading week. It appears Russian President Putin has seen his once-powerful authoritarian grip on his country loosened significantly, which has destabilized the Russian military. The marketplace will continue watching this situation very closely as its geopolitical implications are huge.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds.

To read more, go here. 

Silver Down Into $22/toz Range

Silver has dropped to its lowest prices in three months. 

Last week, the silver spot price was in the $24/toz range. This week, it is down into the $22/toz range.

This is a good opportunity to do some buying (remember, buy low, sell high).

It is probably related to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony of yesterday.

From Kitco News:

Chairman Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee today. This is part of his semiannual report which will conclude tomorrow when he appears before the Senate Banking Committee. His opening statement was close to a word-for-word repeat of his opening statement at last week’s press conference. Most importantly, the chairman did little to convey any new information regarding upcoming rate hikes and inflation that was not said last week.

The key takeaway from last week’s press conference and today’s testimony was twofold. First, he and other Fed officials agree that there should be further interest rate hikes. Secondly, he expects rates to remain elevated throughout the remainder of this year.

Gold, Silver Regained Ground

June is off to a better start for gold and silver.

May had been a lousy month for both precious metals, but they have "solidly" regained some ground in spot pricing yesterday.

Kitco News reported:

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, amid a big U.S. economic data dump that culminates with Friday morning's U.S. jobs report. The precious metals are boosted today by ideas the Federal Reserve may pause in its interest-rate-hiking cycle. August gold was last up $15.80 at $1,997.90 and July silver was up $0.403 at $23.985.

The Wall Street Journal reported today the Fed is likely to pause in its rate-hiking cycle at the June FOMC meeting, before raising rates again later this summer. That's a shift from the consensus marketplace belief just recently that the Fed would again raise rates at the June FOMC meeting. However, a "sizzling jobs report" on Friday would throw cold water on the Fed pause, said the Journal report. 

To read more, go here.