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2016 Missouri gubernatorial election

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2016 Missouri gubernatorial election

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
 
Nominee Eric Greitens Chris Koster
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,433,397 1,277,360
Percentage 51.14% 45.57%

Greitens:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Koster:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes

Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Eric Greitens
Republican

The 2016 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primaries were held on August 2. Incumbent Democratic governor Jay Nixon was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term in office.[1] State Attorney General Chris Koster and businessman, author and former U.S. Navy SEAL Eric Greitens won the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively.[2][3] On election day, November 8, 2016, the Associated Press declared Greitens the winner of the election, and Koster conceded shortly after.[4]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster
Eric
Morrison
Leonard
Steinman
Charles
Wheeler
Other Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–27, 2016 400 ± 5.0% 73% 3% 1% 8% 15%
SurveyUSA Archived 2016-07-27 at the Wayback Machine July 20–24, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 57% 7% 3% 7% 26%

Results

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Results by county:
  Koster
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chris Koster 256,272 78.75%
Democratic Eric Morrison 31,474 9.67%
Democratic Charles Wheeler 25,756 7.92%
Democratic Leonard Steinman 11,911 3.66%
Total votes 325,413 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Deceased

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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John Brunner
Eric Greitens
Catherine Hanaway
Peter Kinder

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Brunner
Eric
Greitens
Catherine
Hanaway
Peter
Kinder
Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–27, 2016 400 ± 5.0% 23% 21% 21% 18% 17%
SurveyUSA Archived 2016-07-27 at the Wayback Machine July 20–24, 2016 773 ± 3.6% 21% 25% 18% 18% 18%
OnMessage Inc. July 17–18, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 23% 21% 25% 19% 12%
Public Policy Polling July 11–12, 2016 462 ± 3.2% 16% 24% 22% 15% 23%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout July 7–8, 2016 1,022 ± 3.0% 22% 29% 16% 12% 21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Brunner
Catherine
Hanaway
Peter
Kinder
Tom
Schweich
Dave
Spence
Other Undecided
Remington Research Group February 2–3, 2015 747 3.6% 10% 13% 16% 62%
12% 24% 15% 48%
16% 19% 18% 47%
Remington Research Group January 2015 1,355 ? 44% 56%
39% 37% 25%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Greitens
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Brunner
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Kinder
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Eric Greitens 236,481 34.56%
Republican John Brunner 169,620 24.79%
Republican Peter Kinder 141,629 20.70%
Republican Catherine Hanaway 136,521 19.95%
Total votes 684,251 100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

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Green Party

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Candidates

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Declared
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Independent

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Candidates

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Declared
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  • Les Turilli, Jr., businessman[57]

Libertarian Party

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Candidates

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Declared
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Results

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Libertarian primary results [17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Cisse W. Spragins 3,515 100.00%
Total votes 3,515 100.00%

General election

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Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[59] Tossup August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[60] Tossup November 8, 2016
Inside Elections[61] Tossup November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[63] Tossup November 1, 2016
Governing[64] Tossup November 4, 2016

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Chris
Koster (D)
Eric
Greitens (R)
Other/Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 28 – November 1, 2016 November 1, 2016 45.5% 46.0% 8.5% Greitens +0.5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Eric
Greitens (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,368 ± 4.6% 48% 47% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,119 ± 4.6% 49% 46% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28–Nov 3, 2016 879 ± 4.6% 49% 47% 4%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2016 871 ± 3.4% 47% 44% 4% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 774 ± 4.6% 50% 47% 3%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) October 31 – November 1, 2016 1,722 ± 2.4% 45% 46% 4% 4%
DFM Research Archived January 31, 2017, at the Wayback Machine October 27 – November 1, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 45% 39% 10% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 649 ± 4.6% 52% 46% 2%
Monmouth University October 28–31, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 2% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 671 ± 4.6% 54% 44% 2%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R) October 27–28, 2016 1,698 ± 2.4% 46% 45% 9%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon October 24–26, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) October 23–25, 2016 2,559 ± 1.9% 47% 45% 4% 4%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) October 9–11, 2016 2,171 ± 2.1% 48% 42% 5% 5%
Monmouth University October 9–11, 2016 406 ± 4.9% 46% 43% 2% 8%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) October 4–5, 2016 1,588 ± 2.6% 44% 41% 5% 10%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) September 26–27, 2016 1,279 ± 3.0% 51% 35% 5%[65] 10%
The Tarrance Group (R-Greitens) September 19–22, 2016 606 ± 4.1% 45% 42% 13%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) September 19–20, 2016 1,076 ± 3.2% 47% 37% 4%[66] 13%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing September 11–13, 2016 604 ± 4.0% 49% 41% 8%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing September 4–6, 2016 589 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 3%[67] 9%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) September 1–2, 2016 1,275 ± 3.0% 46% 42% 12%
Monmouth University August 19–22, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 51% 40% 3% 6%
Remington Research Group (R) August 5–6, 2016 1,280 ± 3.0% 45% 43% 7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 52% 33% 15%
DFM Research March 17–24, 2016 674 ± 3.8% 41% 24% 3% 31%
Public Policy Polling September 22–23, 2015 731 ± 3.6% 37% 44% 20%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 40% 34% 26%
Hypothetical polling
with John Brunner
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
John
Brunner (R)
Other Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
DFM Research March 17–24, 2016 674 ± 3.8% 42% 28% 2% 28%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 41% 36% 23%
with Catherine Hanaway
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Catherine
Hanaway (R)
Other Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 52% 36% 12%
DFM Research March 17–24, 2016 674 ± 3.8% 43% 31% 3% 23%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 40% 36% 23%
Gravius Public Polling January 7–8, 2015 ? ± 6% 29% 23% 48%
Wilson Perkins Allen (R-Hanaway) January 15–19, 2014 700 ± 3.7% 33% 35% 32%
with Peter Kinder
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Peter
Kinder (R)
Other Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon July 23–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
DFM Research March 17–24, 2016 674 ± 3.8% 39% 37% 2% 22%
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 37% 40% 24%
with Bob Dixon
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Bob
Dixon (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 39% 35% 26%
with Bart Korman
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Bart
Korman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 39% 31% 30%
with Tom Schweich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Tom
Schweich (R)
Other Undecided
Gravius Public Polling January 7–8, 2015 ? ± 6% 30% 26% 44%
with Randy Asbury
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Randy
Asbury (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 7–9, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 40% 35% 25%
with Claire McCaskill
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Catherine
Hanaway (R)
Other Undecided
Gravius Public Polling January 7–8, 2015 ? ± 6% 19% 30% 51%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Tom
Schweich (R)
Other Undecided
Gravius Public Polling January 7–8, 2015 ? ± 6% 20% 34% 46%

Results

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Missouri gubernatorial election, 2016[68]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Eric Greitens 1,433,397 51.14% +8.61%
Democratic Chris Koster 1,277,360 45.57% −9.20%
Libertarian Cisse Spragins 41,154 1.47% −1.22%
Independent Lester Benton Turilli, Jr. 30,019 1.07% N/A
Green Don Fitz 21,088 0.75% N/A
Write-in 28 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,803,046 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
State Senate Districts results
State House Districts results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Greitens won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[69]

District Koster Greitens Representative
1st 82% 16% Lacy Clay
2nd 47% 51% Ann Wagner
3rd 40% 57% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 39% 57% Vicky Hartzler
5th 60% 37% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 40% 57% Sam Graves
7th 32% 65% Billy Long
8th 32% 65% Jason Smith

Campaign finance investigations

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On April 28, 2017, the Missouri Ethics Commission fined Greitens' campaign $1,000 for violating state campaign ethics rules regarding campaign disclosure. Greitens did not contest the fine.[70]

In 2018, Missouri attorney general Josh Hawley announced the opening of an investigation of Greitens' 2016 campaign financing.[71]

On June 1, 2018, Eric Greitens resigned from office, leaving Mike Parson, his lieutenant governor, to succeed him.

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Bill McClellan (October 5, 2012). "Bill McClellan: Jay Nixon could make presidential bid in 2016". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved March 3, 2013.
  2. ^ Held, Kevin S. (August 2, 2016). "Koster wins Democratic gubernatorial primary". KTVI. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  3. ^ Lieb, David A.; Ballentine, Summer (August 2, 2016). "Ex-Navy SEAL Eric Greitens wins Missouri governor primary". WRCB. Archived from the original on August 4, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  4. ^ "Eric Greitens declares victory in Missouri gubernatorial race". November 9, 2016.
  5. ^ "State News: Mo. Attorney General Koster prepares to run for governor". seMissourian.com. Associated Press. April 10, 2013. Archived from the original on August 3, 2016. Retrieved October 14, 2014.
  6. ^ "Chris Koster for Missouri governor? - St. Louis Business Journal". Bizjournals.com. April 10, 2013. Retrieved August 20, 2013.
  7. ^ a b Jo Mannies (February 16, 2014). "Early Missouri governor's race new political normal". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved May 21, 2014.
  8. ^ Wood, Emily (June 7, 2016). "Republican race for Mo. governor heats up with new ads". KY3. Retrieved June 15, 2016.
  9. ^ Watson, Bob (February 24, 2016). "Steinman running for governor instead of president". Jefferson City News Tribune. Archived from the original on March 1, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
  10. ^ Kraske, Steve (February 29, 2016). "Here comes Charlie Wheeler". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
  11. ^ "Steve Kraske: Claire McCaskill flirts with a run for Missouri governor". kansascity.com. Kansas City Star. August 28, 2014. Retrieved September 1, 2014.
  12. ^ Yokley, Eli (January 12, 2015). "Claire McCaskill will not run for governor in 2016". PoliticMo. Retrieved January 12, 2015.
  13. ^ "Zweifel decides against 2016 bid for governor". St. Louis Beacon. April 9, 2013. Archived from the original on July 20, 2013. Retrieved August 20, 2013.
  14. ^ "2016 Outlook". The Missouri Times. October 20, 2014. Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  15. ^ a b "Editorial: In governor's primaries, Catherine Hanaway and Chris Koster". stltoday.com. July 24, 2016.
  16. ^ a b "The Star's recommendations for governor — Catherine Hanaway, Chris Koster — and for other Missouri statewide offices". kansascity.com. July 25, 2016.
  17. ^ a b c "Missouri Gubernatorial Primary results". Missouri Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved November 30, 2016.
  18. ^ Scher Zagier, Alan; Ballentine, Summer (September 26, 2015). "Former Navy SEAL Greitens running as Republican for Missouri governor". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved September 28, 2015.
  19. ^ a b Lear, Mike (September 25, 2015). "Asbury out, Greitens, Brunner appear ready to proceed in Missouri governor's race". Missourinet News. Retrieved September 28, 2015.
  20. ^ "Republican Hanaway to run for Mo. governor in 2016". ksdk.com. February 11, 2014. Archived from the original on February 22, 2014. Retrieved February 12, 2014.
  21. ^ Pistor, Nicholas J.C. (July 12, 2015). "Peter Kinder will seek Missouri governor's office in 2016". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved July 12, 2015.
  22. ^ a b Giacomo Bologna (October 2, 2013). "Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched". Roll Call. Retrieved October 3, 2013.
  23. ^ Lieb, David A. (November 20, 2014). "Schweich weighing running for Missouri governor". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved November 22, 2014.
  24. ^ "Missouri Auditor Tom Schweich to run for governor, setting up Republican primary in 2016". Daily Journal. January 28, 2015. Archived from the original on January 30, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
  25. ^ Joe Millitzer (February 26, 2015). "Missouri Auditor Schweich dies after self-inflicted gunshot wound". KTVI Fox 2 Now.
  26. ^ Lear, Mike (February 16, 2015). "Asbury joins Republican race for governor in 2016". Missourinet News. Retrieved February 20, 2015.
  27. ^ Griffin, Marshall (July 20, 2015). "Bob Dixon announces run for Republican nomination for Missouri governor". KWMU. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
  28. ^ Zimpfer, Travis (November 23, 2015). "Dixon ends bid for GOP governor's nomination". The Missouri Times. Retrieved November 23, 2015.
  29. ^ McDermott, Kevin (April 30, 2015). "Republican Mike Parson adds his name to race for Missouri governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved May 10, 2015.
  30. ^ Swedien, Jon (July 27, 2015). "Sen. Mike Parson switches race to lieutenant governor". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
  31. ^ "'It could get bloody' — Experts forecast 2016 Missouri election". Springfield News-Leader. November 9, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  32. ^ "Tim Jones Won't Seek Statewide Office In 2016". St. Louis Public Radio. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  33. ^ "Missouri House speaker won't seek office in 2016". The State. November 6, 2014. Archived from the original on November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  34. ^ "Tim Jones: will not run for statewide office in 2016". MissouriNet. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  35. ^ Wingo, Kelsey (January 13, 2015). "Is Bart Korman running for governor?". The Missouri Times. Retrieved January 28, 2015.
  36. ^ Schmidt, Tim (January 17, 2015). "Gov. Korman? State Rep's interest in state's top position done as tribute". The Warren County Record. Archived from the original on June 2, 2017. Retrieved April 11, 2015.
  37. ^ Jo Mannies (May 19, 2014). "Luetkemeyer Getting Strong Encouragement To Jump Into GOP 2016 Field For Governor". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved May 21, 2014.
  38. ^ Lear, Mike (January 31, 2015). "Luetkemeyer downplays run for Missouri governor in 2016". Missourinet News. Retrieved February 10, 2015.
  39. ^ Mannies, Jo (February 20, 2015). "Is Rep. Luetkemeyer still looking at MO gov? "No," he says". Twitter. Retrieved February 21, 2015.
  40. ^ "Richard: No 2016 run for governor; will back Kinder for governor in 2012". St. Louis Beacon. February 27, 2010. Archived from the original on July 20, 2013. Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  41. ^ McDermott, Kevin (April 10, 2015). "Apparently no re-run for former Missouri gubernatorial nominee Dave Spence". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved April 11, 2015.
  42. ^ Yokley, Eli (March 21, 2015). "As Republicans face split, Roy Blunt steers clear of John Hancock saga". PoliticMo. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  43. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Greitens announces state leadership campaign team". The Missouri Times. January 13, 2016.
  44. ^ "Dr. Ben Carson Endorses Eric Greitens - Eric Greitens for Governor". ericgreitens.com. Archived from the original on February 17, 2017. Retrieved January 14, 2022.
  45. ^ "Former LG and animal rights activist Joe Maxwell endorses Greitens". Themissouritimes.com. October 21, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2018.
  46. ^ Kraske, Steve (November 17, 2014). "Kit Bond backing Catherine Hanaway for Missouri governor". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved November 22, 2014.
  47. ^ Kleine, Ben (March 14, 2014). "Dempsey endorses Hanaway for Governor in 2016". The Missouri Times. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  48. ^ Yokley, Eli (March 31, 2014). "Senate leadership backing Hanaway for governor". PoliticMo. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
  49. ^ "Wagner Endorses Catherine Hanaway for governor". AnnWagner.com. February 10, 2014. Archived from the original on February 2, 2015. Retrieved January 12, 2015.
  50. ^ "Danforth Endorsed Kinder". nationaljournal.com. October 19, 2015. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  51. ^ "Danforth donates $10k to Kinder in GOP governor's race". stltoday.com. August 25, 2015. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  52. ^ "Limbaugh radio endorsement of Kinder in Missouri governor's race airing statewide". stltoday.com. June 10, 2016. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  53. ^ "Why I'm Supporting Peter Kinder For Missouri Governor". danaloeschradio.com. July 13, 2016. Archived from the original on August 13, 2016. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  54. ^ "Navy SEAL, National Geographic Star Endorses Peter Kinder For Missouri Governor". danaloeschradio.com. July 6, 2016. Archived from the original on July 10, 2016. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  55. ^ "Don Fitz- Candidate for Governor of Missouri". Missouri Green Party. Archived from the original on September 11, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
  56. ^ "Kander Certifies Green Party for November Ballot". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
  57. ^ "UPDATED: Businessman to run as independent for Missouri governor". Columbia Missourian. January 13, 2015. Retrieved March 5, 2015.
  58. ^ "Cisse Spragins Wins Nomination For Governor". Libertarian Party of Missouri. Archived from the original on August 14, 2016. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
  59. ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  60. ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  61. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  62. ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  63. ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  64. ^ "Ratings Roundup: 2016 Statewide Elections". Governing Magazine. November 4, 2016. Retrieved April 23, 2021.
  65. ^ Cisse Spragins (L) 3%, Lester Turilli (I) 2%
  66. ^ Cisse Spragins (L) 2%, Lester Turilli (I) 2%
  67. ^ Cisse Spragins (L) 2%, Lester Turilli (I) 1%
  68. ^ "2016 General Election - Official Results". Missouri Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original on June 15, 2019. Retrieved December 29, 2016.
  69. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.
  70. ^ McDermott, Kevin. "In latest secrecy issue, Gov. Greitens is fined by state for undisclosed donor list". stltoday.com. Retrieved May 7, 2017.
  71. ^ ELECTIONS ‘She’s a lucky duck’: GOP implodes again for McCaskill, Politico, Daniel Strauss, April 23, 2018. Retrieved April 30, 2018.
[edit]
Official campaign websites (Archived)