Background

The synthetic solvent tetrachloroethylene (PCE), commonly used in dry cleaning operations, is a human neurotoxicant and carcinogen. However, its effect on reproduction is poorly understood, as prior studies have been limited to small occupational cohorts. We examined the association between PCE exposure from contamination of the public drinking water supply and time-to-pregnancy (TTP) in a cohort of mothers from Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Methods

The Cape Cod Family Health Study is a retrospective cohort study designed to examine the reproductive and developmental health effects of exposure to PCE-contaminated drinking water. Our analysis included 1565 women who reported 3826 planned pregnancies from 1949 to 1990. Women completed self-administered questionnaires that ascertained TTP for each of her pregnancies, regardless of the outcome, as well as residential history and demographic information. We utilized EPANET water distribution system modeling software and a leaching and transport model to assess PCE exposure for each pregnancy. We used log-binomial regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for potential confounders. We performed a probabilistic bias analysis to examine the effect of outcome misclassification on our results.

Results

Any cumulative PCE exposure before pregnancy was associated with a 15% reduction in risk of TTP > 12 months (RR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.70, 1.03). However, women with the highest average monthly PCE exposure around the time of the pregnancy attempt (≥ 2.5 g) had increased risk of TTP > 12 months (RR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.76).

Conclusions

We found little evidence for long-term, cumulative adverse effects of PCE exposure on TTP, but high levels of PCE exposure around the time of the pregnancy attempt were associated with longer TTP. These associations may be underestimated due to the exclusion of unsuccessful pregnancy attempts from our study population, and may be biased by outcome and exposure misclassification given the long-term recall of TTP and use of a leaching and transport model to estimate PCE exposure.

Misinterpretation and abuse of statistical tests, confidence intervals, and statistical power have been decried for decades, yet remain rampant. A key problem is that there are no interpretations of these concepts that are at once simple, intuitive, correct, and foolproof. Instead, correct use and interpretation of these statistics requires an attention to detail which seems to tax the patience of working scientists. This high cognitive demand has led to an epidemic of shortcut definitions and interpretations that are simply wrong, sometimes disastrously so-and yet these misinterpretations dominate much of the scientific literature. In light of this problem, we provide definitions and a discussion of basic statistics that are more general and critical than typically found in traditional introductory expositions. Our goal is to provide a resource for instructors, researchers, and consumers of statistics whose knowledge of statistical theory and technique may be limited but who wish to avoid and spot misinterpretations. We emphasize how violation of often unstated analysis protocols (such as selecting analyses for presentation based on the P values they produce) can lead to small P values even if the declared test hypothesis is correct, and can lead to large P values even if that hypothesis is incorrect. We then provide an explanatory list of 25 misinterpretations of P values, confidence intervals, and power. We conclude with guidelines for improving statistical interpretation and reporting.

Background

A causal link between outdoor air pollution and childhood leukemia has been proposed, but some older studies suffer from methodological drawbacks. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic reviews have summarized the most recently published evidence and no analyses have examined the dose-response relation.

Objective

We investigated the extent to which outdoor air pollution, especially as resulting from traffic-related contaminants, affects the risk of childhood leukemia.

Methods

We searched all case-control and cohort studies that have investigated the risk of childhood leukemia in relation to exposure either to motorized traffic and related contaminants, based on various traffic-related metrics (number of vehicles in the closest roads, road density, and distance from major roads), or to measured or modeled levels of air contaminants such as benzene, nitrogen dioxide, 1,3-butadiene, and particulate matter. We carried out a meta-analysis of all eligible studies, including nine studies published since the last systematic review and, when possible, we fit a dose-response curve using a restricted cubic spline regression model.

Results

We found 29 studies eligible to be included in our review. In the dose-response analysis, we found little association between disease risk and traffic indicators near the child's residence for most of the exposure range, with an indication of a possible excess risk only at the highest levels. In contrast, benzene exposure was positively and approximately linearly associated with risk of childhood leukemia, particularly for acute myeloid leukemia, among children under 6 y of age, and when exposure assessment at the time of diagnosis was used. Exposure to nitrogen dioxide showed little association with leukemia risk except at the highest levels.

Discussion

Overall, the epidemiologic literature appears to support an association between benzene and childhood leukemia risk, with no indication of any threshold effect. A role for other measured and unmeasured pollutants from motorized traffic is also possible. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4381.

Benzene, a recognized occupational leukemogen in adults, has been hypothesized to also increase the risk of childhood leukemia. We carried out a population-based case-control study in a northern Italy community involving 83 cases with acute childhood leukemia diagnosed in the years 1998-2009 and 332 matched controls. We assessed residential exposure to benzene and to particulate matter ≤10 μm (PM10) from motorized traffic using geocoded residences and detailed emission and dispersion modeling. Exposure to benzene, and to a lesser extent to PM10, appeared to be independently associated with an excess leukemia risk. When we stratified the study population by age and by leukemia subtype, the relative risk associated with benzene exposure was higher among children aged less than 5 years, and despite small numbers this relation appeared to be considerably stronger for acute myeloid leukemia than for acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Overall, these findings suggest that exposure to low levels of benzene released from motorized traffic may increase the risk of childhood leukemia, and suggest a possible independent effect of PM10, although unmeasured confounding due to other pollutants cannot be ruled out.