Much research effort has been expended improving police lineup procedures used in collecting eyewitness identification evidence. Sequential presentation of lineup members, in contrast to simultaneous presentation, has been posited to increase witness accuracy, though analyses based in Signal Detection Theory (SDT) have challenged these claims. A possible way to clarify the effect of presentation format on witness accuracy is to develop SDT-based measurement models, which characterise decision performance in terms of psychologically-relevant parameters, particularly discrimin- ability and response bias. A model of the sequential lineup task was developed with a “first-above-criterion” decision rule, alongside a simultaneous model with a “maximum familiarity” decision rule. These models were fit to a corpus of data comparing simultaneous and sequential lineup performance. Results showed no difference in discriminability between the procedures and more conservative responding for the sequential lineup. Future work will examine criterion setting in the sequential lineup and model alternative decision rules.

Overprecision (overconfidence in interval estimation) is a biaswith clear implications for economic outcomes in industriesreliant on forecasting possible ranges for future prices andunknown states of nature - such as mineral and petroleumexploration. Prior research has shown the ranges peopleprovide are too narrow given the knowledge they have – thatis, they underestimate uncertainty and are overconfident intheir knowledge. The underlying causes of this bias are,however, still unclear and individual differences research hasshed little light on traits predictive of susceptibility. Takingthis as a starting point, this paper directly contrasts the NaïveSampling Model and Informativeness-Accuracy Tradeoffaccounts of overprecision – seeing which better predictsperformance in an interval estimation task. This was achievedby identifying traits associated with these theories – ShortTerm Memory and Need for Cognitive Closure, respectively.Analyses indicate that NFCC but not STM predicts intervalwidth and thus, potentially, impacts overprecision.