In multiple sclerosis, individual lesion-type patterns on magnetic resonance imaging might be valuable for predicting clinical outcome and monitoring treatment effects. Neuropathological and imaging studies consistently show that cortical lesions contribute to disease progression. The presence of chronic active white matter lesions harbouring a paramagnetic rim on susceptibility-weighted magnetic resonance imaging has also been associated with an aggressive form of multiple sclerosis. It is, however, still uncertain how these two types of lesions relate to each other, or which one plays a greater role in disability progression. In this prospective, longitudinal study in 100 multiple sclerosis patients (74 relapsing-remitting, 26 secondary progressive), we used ultra-high field 7-T susceptibility imaging to characterize cortical and rim lesion presence and evolution. Clinical evaluations were obtained over a mean period of 3.2 years in 71 patients, 46 of which had a follow-up magnetic resonance imaging. At baseline, cortical and rim lesions were identified in 96% and 63% of patients, respectively. Rim lesion prevalence was similar across disease stages. Patients with rim lesions had higher cortical and overall white matter lesion load than subjects without rim lesions (P = 0.018-0.05). Altogether, cortical lesions increased by both count and volume (P = 0.004) over time, while rim lesions expanded their volume (P = 0.023) whilst lacking new rim lesions; rimless white matter lesions increased their count but decreased their volume (P = 0.016). We used a modern machine learning algorithm based on extreme gradient boosting techniques to assess the cumulative power as well as the individual importance of cortical and rim lesion types in predicting disease stage and disability progression, alongside with more traditional imaging markers. The most influential imaging features that discriminated between multiple sclerosis stages (area under the curve±standard deviation = 0.82 ± 0.08) included, as expected, the normalized white matter and thalamic volume, white matter lesion volume, but also leukocortical lesion volume. Subarachnoid cerebrospinal fluid and leukocortical lesion volumes, along with rim lesion volume were the most important predictors of Expanded Disability Status Scale progression (area under the curve±standard deviation = 0.69 ± 0.12). Taken together, these results indicate that while cortical lesions are extremely frequent in multiple sclerosis, rim lesion development occurs only in a subset of patients. Both, however, persist over time and relate to disease progression. Their combined assessment is needed to improve the ability of identifying multiple sclerosis patients at risk of progressing disease.

Background: Predicting the progression of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important for treatment selection and patient counseling. Structural MRI markers such as hippocampus or basal forebrain volumes might represent useful instruments for the prediction of cognitive decline. The primary objective was to determine the predictive value of hippocampus and basal forebrain volumes for global and domain specific cognitive decline in AD dementia during cholinergic treatment. Methods: We used MRI and cognitive data from 124 patients with the clinical diagnosis of AD dementia, derived from the ADNI-1 cohort, who were on standard of care cholinesterase inhibitor treatment during a follow-up period between 0.4 and 3.1 years. We used linear mixed effects models with cognitive function as outcome to assess the main effects as well as two-way interactions between baseline volumes and time controlling for age, sex, and total intracranial volume. This model accounts for individual variation in follow-up times. Results: Basal forebrain volume, but not hippocampus volume, was a significant predictor of rates of global cognitive decline. Larger volumes were associated with smaller rates of cognitive decline. Left hippocampus volume had a modest association with rates of episodic memory decline. Baseline performance in global cognition and memory was significantly associated with hippocampus and basal forebrain volumes; in addition, basal forebrain volume was associated with baseline performance in executive function. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that in AD dementia patients, basal forebrain volume may be a useful marker to predict subsequent cognitive decline during cholinergic treatment.