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GW 6 Deadline

Top Performer

Groß

Brighton

47 Points

GW Status

Highest: 126

Avg: 48

MVPs2026-09-13

FPL Gameweek 5 Power Rankings: The Value Picks Printing Points

# FPL Gameweek 5 Power Rankings: The Value Picks Printing Points The season’s value market is heating up, and several budget-friendly players are producing returns that rival — and sometimes outperform — far more expensive options. With **Gameweek 5** in focus, these are the standout performers according to points, form, expected goal involvement, ICT Index and transfer momentum. ## The Value King: Maxim De Cuyper Brighton’s **Maxim De Cuyper** tops the value conversation. His **32 points** have arrived at a modest **£4.8m**, giving him the highest points-per-pound return among the leading names in this data set. His underlying numbers are equally encouraging: - **1.97 xGI** — including **1.53 expected goals** - **21.1 ICT Index** - **8.0 form** and **8.0 points per game** - **22.5% selected by** - **75,972 transfers in** De Cuyper combines strong output with attacking indicators and widespread FPL interest. For managers searching for a budget player with both form and statistical support, he is the benchmark heading into Gameweek 5. ## Power Rankings: Best Value Players | Rank | Player | Team | Price | Points | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points/£m | |---:|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 1 | **Maxim De Cuyper** | Brighton | £4.8m | 32 | 8.0 | 1.97 | 21.1 | **6.67** | | 2 | **Semi Ajayi** | Hull City | £4.2m | 26 | 6.5 | 0.65 | 10.7 | **6.19** | | 3 | **John Egan** | Hull City | £4.1m | 25 | 6.2 | 0.04 | 8.6 | **6.10** | | 4 | **Nobel Mendy** | Hull City | £4.1m | 25 | 6.2 | 0.32 | 15.1 | **6.10** | | 5 | **Konstantinos Tzolakis** | Hull City | £4.6m | 28 | 7.0 | 0.00 | 7.3 | **6.09** | | 6 | **Ryan Giles** | Hull City | £4.0m | 24 | 6.0 | 0.37 | 10.5 | **6.00** | | 7 | **Pascal Groß** | Brighton | £5.6m | 33 | 8.2 | 2.27 | 22.2 | **5.89** | | 8 | **Joško Gvardiol** | Man City | £5.6m | 33 | 8.2 | 0.33 | 17.1 | **5.89** | | 9 | **Leif Davis** | Ipswich Town | £4.0m | 23 | 5.8 | 1.61 | 18.8 | **5.75** | | 10 | **Mohamed Belloumi** | Hull City | £5.0m | 27 | 6.8 | 0.49 | 11.1 | **5.40** | *Points/£m is calculated using the listed total points and current cost. It is a simple value comparison, not a projection.* ## The Premium Value Standouts ### Pascal Groß: The Complete Statistical Package Groß is the highest-scoring player in the data set with **33 points**, level with Gvardiol, but his underlying numbers give him a distinct attacking edge. His **2.27 xGI** leads the entire group, while his **22.2 ICT Index** is also the highest listed. At **£5.6m**, Groß is more expensive than the budget defenders in this ranking, but his combination of **8.2 form**, **0.61 expected assists** and **1.66 expected goals** makes him one of the most compelling all-round value options. ### Joško Gvardiol: Points Without the Attacking Numbers Gvardiol also sits on **33 points** and matches Groß with **8.2 form**. His **17.1 ICT Index** is healthy, although his **0.33 xGI** is significantly lower than Groß’s. That contrast makes Gvardiol the more points-driven pick, while Groß offers the stronger statistical case for continued attacking involvement. ### Kevin Schade: Explosive Momentum at £6.0m Brentford’s Kevin Schade has delivered **30 points**, **7.5 form** and **1.28 xGI** at £6.0m. His **98,195 transfers in** underline the market’s growing confidence, while his six bonus points add further evidence of an impressive start. Schade is not the cheapest player on the list, but his output is strong enough to remain firmly in the Gameweek 5 conversation. ## Hull City’s Value Surge Hull City dominate the rankings, with six players included among the season’s leading value performers. The group features a spread of profiles: - **Semi Ajayi:** 26 points, 6.5 form and 82,512 transfers in - **John Egan:** 25 points at just £4.1m - **Konstantinos Tzolakis:** 28 points and 7.0 form - **Ryan Giles:** 24 points at £4.0m, with 0.37 xGI - **Mohamed Belloumi:** 27 points and 104,529 transfers in - **Nobel Mendy:** 25 points and a 15.1 ICT Index, but listed as **doubtful** Belloumi has attracted the most transfers in among all players listed, while Ajayi has also recorded significant market support. Mendy’s status is the key warning flag: his numbers are attractive, but he is marked **d** in the supplied data and has recorded 37,325 transfers out. ## Best Under-the-Radar Options ### Leif Davis Davis offers one of the strongest attacking profiles among the lower-priced players. At **£4.0m**, he has posted **23 points**, while his **1.61 xGI** ranks behind only Groß and De Cuyper in this comparison. His **18.8 ICT Index** also stands out, particularly alongside his modest 5.7% selection. That combination makes him a notable differential for managers willing to move beyond the most popular names. ### Jayden Bogle Bogle has produced **22 points** at £4.5m, supported by **0.93 xGI** and an **11.2 ICT Index**. His listed points per game of **7.3** is higher than his overall form figure of 5.5, making him an intriguing statistical outlier in the data. With only **2.1% selected by**, Bogle offers another low-ownership option for Gameweek 5 planning. ### Vitaly Janelt Janelt’s **24.0 ICT Index** is the second-highest in the entire group, behind only Groß. His underlying numbers include **0.90 xGI**, split between **0.50 expected goals** and **0.40 expected assists**. The returns have not matched his ICT profile yet — 25 points and 6.2 form — but his statistical involvement makes him one to monitor. ## Transfer Momentum to Watch | Player | Transfers In | Transfers Out | Net Transfers | |---|---:|---:|---:| | **Mohamed Belloumi** | 104,529 | 4,501 | **+100,028** | | **Kevin Schade** | 98,195 | 7,408 | **+90,787** | | **Joško Gvardiol** | 79,496 | 10,802 | **+68,694** | | **Semi Ajayi** | 82,512 | 16,408 | **+66,104** | | **Maxim De Cuyper** | 75,972 | 26,437 | **+49,535** | | **Pascal Groß** | 74,955 | 25,096 | **+49,859** | Belloumi leads the transfer race by net movement, while Schade, Gvardiol, Ajayi, De Cuyper and Groß are also seeing strong buying pressure. The market is clearly rewarding players combining points with affordable price tags. ## Gameweek 5 Watchlist For managers building a Gameweek 5 shortlist, the data points towards three distinct strategies: - **Best overall value:** Maxim De Cuyper - **Best attacking numbers:** Pascal Groß - **Best points-led option:** Joško Gvardiol - **Best budget momentum:** Semi Ajayi - **Best differential profile:** Leif Davis - **Best low-ownership watch:** Jayden Bogle - **Status check required:** Nobel Mendy, who is listed as doubtful ## Conclusion The value market is no longer just about finding the cheapest active player. The leading names are offering a blend of points, form, underlying statistics and transfer momentum. **Maxim De Cuyper** is the standout value leader, while **Groß and Gvardiol** provide premium-level production at manageable prices. Hull City’s cluster of performers gives managers plenty of budget routes, and **Davis, Bogle and Janelt** offer compelling differential data. With Gameweek 5 approaching, the message is clear: the season’s best value players are already delivering — and the smartest FPL squads will be watching both the points and the numbers underneath them.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 5
FPL Admin
Differentials2026-09-13

Gameweek 5 Differential Watch: 10 Low-Owned Gems Ready to Climb the Ranks

# Gameweek 5 Differential Watch: 10 Low-Owned Gems Ready to Climb the Ranks If you are looking to gain ground in **Gameweek 5**, differentials can provide the edge that template picks often cannot. The players below are all owned by fewer than 5% of FPL managers, yet several are producing outstanding form, strong underlying numbers and significant transfer interest. ## The standout ultra-differentials ### Kevin Schade — Brentford - **Price:** £6.0m - **Ownership:** 4.7% - **Form:** 7.5 - **Points:** 30 - **xGI:** 1.28 - **ICT Index:** 20.1 Schade is the highest-scoring player in this group and also leads the list for form. With **30 points from the available data**, a 7.5 form rating and nearly 100,000 transfers in, he is rapidly becoming one of the most popular low-owned options. His attacking numbers are encouraging, making him an appealing Gameweek 5 punt for managers chasing rank gains. ### Marcus Tavernier — Bournemouth - **Price:** £6.0m - **Ownership:** 4.4% - **Form:** 7.2 - **Points:** 29 - **xGI:** 2.51 - **ICT Index:** 27.6 Tavernier offers perhaps the strongest statistical profile in the entire selection. His **2.51 xGI** is comfortably the best, while his 27.6 ICT Index also tops the table. Add 29 points, a 7.2 form rating and eight bonus points, and there is a compelling case for considering him as a high-upside differential. ### Mohamed Belloumi — Hull City - **Price:** £5.0m - **Ownership:** 2.1% - **Form:** 6.8 - **Points:** 27 - **xGI:** 0.49 - **ICT Index:** 11.1 Belloumi has attracted the most transfers in among the listed players, with **104,529 managers bringing him in**. His 27 points and 6.8 form rating are excellent for a player owned by just 2.1%. His underlying attacking numbers are more modest than Tavernier’s or Schade’s, but his recent output makes him an intriguing budget differential. ## Best options by underlying numbers | Player | Team | Price | Ownership | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Marcus Tavernier | Bournemouth | £6.0m | 4.4% | 7.2 | 2.51 | 27.6 | 29 | | Kevin Schade | Brentford | £6.0m | 4.7% | 7.5 | 1.28 | 20.1 | 30 | | Josh King | Fulham | £5.5m | 1.3% | 5.5 | 1.59 | 23.9 | 22 | | Keane Lewis-Potter | Brentford | £5.5m | 2.0% | 4.8 | 1.84 | 22.9 | 19 | | Vitaly Janelt | Brentford | £5.0m | 2.4% | 6.2 | 0.90 | 24.0 | 25 | | Mohamed Belloumi | Hull City | £5.0m | 2.1% | 6.8 | 0.49 | 11.1 | 27 | | Luka Vušković | Brighton | £5.0m | 3.2% | 6.0 | 0.53 | 16.3 | 24 | | Ryan Giles | Hull City | £4.0m | 2.1% | 6.0 | 0.37 | 10.5 | 24 | | Vitalii Mykolenko | Everton | £4.5m | 2.5% | 5.5 | 0.14 | 8.2 | 22 | | Lewis Dunk | Brighton | £4.5m | 1.4% | 5.5 | 0.12 | 7.4 | 22 | ## Budget-friendly rank boosters ### Ryan Giles — Hull City At just **£4.0m**, Giles is the cheapest player in the selection. His 24 points and 6.0 form rating make him an appealing squad enabler, particularly for managers trying to release funds elsewhere. His xGI is limited at 0.37, so his appeal is primarily as a budget differential rather than a major attacking punt. ### Vitalii Mykolenko — Everton Mykolenko has returned 22 points with only 2.5% ownership. His 5.5 form rating and recent transfer balance—49,200 in compared with 2,769 out—suggest growing interest. His attacking numbers are modest, with an xGI of 0.14, but his low £4.5m price adds flexibility. ### Lewis Dunk — Brighton Dunk is owned by just 1.4% of managers and has scored 22 points. At £4.5m, he offers a low-cost route into a player currently averaging 5.5 for form. His xGI of 0.12 indicates that his appeal is not primarily attacking, but his ownership makes him a genuine rank-differentiating option. ## The overlooked attacking picks ### Josh King — Fulham Josh King combines a low 1.3% ownership with some of the strongest attacking data in the group. His **1.59 xGI** ranks second behind Tavernier, while his 1.16 expected goals and 0.43 expected assists point to a balanced threat. With 22 points and a 5.5 form rating, he is one of the most attractive ultra-differentials for managers willing to look beyond the most obvious names. ### Keane Lewis-Potter — Brentford Lewis-Potter’s form rating of 4.8 is lower than most players on this list, but his underlying numbers deserve attention. His **1.84 xGI** is second-highest overall, and his 22.9 ICT Index suggests meaningful involvement. At £5.5m and 2.0% ownership, he represents a potentially explosive differential whose current output has not fully matched his underlying potential. ### Vitaly Janelt — Brentford Janelt has produced 25 points at just 2.4% ownership. His 6.2 form rating, 24.0 ICT Index and 0.90 xGI provide a solid all-round profile for a £5.0m asset. He may not offer the same ceiling as Tavernier or Schade, but his combination of price, form and underlying involvement makes him an appealing alternative. ## Who should Gameweek 5 managers prioritise? For the strongest blend of form and attacking data, **Marcus Tavernier** stands out. His xGI, ICT Index and bonus-point total are all excellent, while his ownership remains below 5%. **Kevin Schade** is the form pick, leading the group with a 7.5 rating and 30 points. Meanwhile, **Josh King** is arguably the most overlooked option, combining just 1.3% ownership with a 1.59 xGI. Managers seeking a budget enabler could consider **Ryan Giles**, while those chasing a higher-risk, higher-reward move may prefer **Keane Lewis-Potter**, whose 1.84 xGI is significantly stronger than his recent form suggests. ## Final verdict Gameweek 5 offers several routes away from the template. **Schade and Tavernier** lead the conversation on recent returns, **King and Lewis-Potter** offer impressive underlying attacking numbers, and **Giles, Mykolenko and Dunk** provide cheaper ways to gain a small ownership advantage. Differentials always carry more uncertainty, but the best picks are those supported by both output and underlying data. On that basis, **Tavernier is the standout all-round rank chaser**, while Schade remains the safest form-based punt among these low-owned gems.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 5
FPL Admin
Scout Report2026-09-13

Fulham’s Green-Light Run: The Standout Fixture Swing from Gameweek 5

## Scout Report: Hunting the Easiest Fixtures With Gameweek 5 approaching, the fixture ticker points to one clear team for managers prioritising an extended run of favourable matches: **Fulham**. Using a strict definition of a **Green fixture as an FDR rating of 2**, Fulham are the only team with **three or more Green fixtures across Gameweeks 5–8**. Their schedule improves sharply after Gameweek 5, creating a compelling fixture-led route into the next three rounds. ## What Counts as Green? - **Green:** Difficulty rating **2** - **Neutral:** Difficulty rating **3** - **Difficult:** Difficulty rating **4** - **Very difficult:** Difficulty rating **5** This approach focuses on the clearest easy fixtures rather than treating every rating of 3 as a strong target. ## The Main Target: Fulham | Gameweek | Fixture | Difficulty | Verdict | |---|---|---:|---| | GW5 | **Fulham vs Man Utd** | 4 | Difficult | | GW6 | **Ipswich Town vs Fulham** | 2 | **Green** | | GW7 | **Fulham vs Hull City** | 2 | **Green** | | GW8 | **Coventry City vs Fulham** | 2 | **Green** | Fulham’s GW5 meeting with Man Utd is the obvious short-term obstacle, but the fixture picture changes immediately afterwards. From GW6 through GW8, they face **three consecutive Green fixtures** against Ipswich Town, Hull City and Coventry City. That sequence offers a clear planning opportunity: - **GW5:** Exercise caution with Fulham assets if seeking an immediate fixture play. - **GW6–GW8:** The schedule becomes one of the strongest in the fixture set. - **Three straight Green fixtures:** A useful window for holding or introducing Fulham players. ## Green Fixture Comparison | Team | Green fixtures (GW5–GW8) | Green fixture run | |---|---:|---| | **Fulham** | **3** | **GW6, GW7, GW8** | | Everton | 2 | GW5, GW6 | | Newcastle | 2 | GW5, GW6 | | Nott'm Forest | 2 | GW5, GW8 | | Man City | 2 | GW5, GW7 | | Sunderland | 2 | GW6, GW8 | | Coventry City | 2 | GW6, GW8 | Fulham are the only side to reach the report’s target of **three or more Green fixtures**. Several teams record two, but none match the sustained run of three consecutive favourable fixtures. ## Teams to Monitor ### Everton and Newcastle: Early Green Fixtures Both Everton and Newcastle have Green fixtures in **GW5 and GW6**, offering an appealing short-term run. However, their schedules become less attractive afterwards: - **Everton:** Chelsea in GW7, followed by Arsenal in GW8. - **Newcastle:** Aston Villa in GW7, followed by Crystal Palace in GW8. These teams may suit managers seeking a two-week fixture swing, but they do not provide Fulham’s longer run of favourable matches. ### Man City: Strong Fixtures, Interrupted Run Man City face Sunderland at home in GW5 and Ipswich Town at home in GW7, both rated 2. However, the trip to Liverpool in GW6 and the home match against Aston Villa in GW8 break up the sequence. ### Sunderland and Coventry City: Two Green Fixtures Each Sunderland have Green fixtures against Brighton in GW6 and Leeds in GW8, while Coventry City rate Green against Newcastle in GW6 and Fulham in GW8. Both offer isolated opportunities, but neither produces three consecutive easy fixtures. ## Scout Verdict **Fulham are the standout fixture target from Gameweek 5 onwards.** The GW5 meeting with Man Utd is difficult, but the run from GW6 to GW8 is exceptionally clean: three consecutive fixtures rated 2. For managers planning beyond a single gameweek, Fulham provide the clearest fixture-led strategy in this data set. The key decision is whether to wait until after GW5 or commit early, accepting one difficult fixture in exchange for access to the subsequent Green run. ## Conclusion The search for teams with at least three Green fixtures produces one clear answer: **Fulham**. Their schedule turns favourable in GW6 and remains Green through GW8, making them the best fixture-run target across the next four gameweeks. Everton, Newcastle, Man City, Sunderland, Nott'm Forest and Coventry City offer shorter two-match windows, but Fulham are the only team with a sustained three-game Green sequence.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 5
FPL Admin
Optimal Squad2026-09-12

The Perfect GW5 XI: A 312-Point Data-Driven FPL Squad

# The Perfect GW5 XI: A 312-Point Data-Driven FPL Squad Gameweek 5 calls for a blend of explosive attackers, high-form midfielders and defenders who can deliver at both ends of the pitch. Using only the supplied statistics—and limiting the squad to a maximum of three players from any one club—this is the strongest available **Optimal 11**. ## Formation: 3-4-3 | Position | Player | Team | Price | Form | Points | xGI | ICT Index | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | GK | David Raya Martín | Arsenal | £6.0m | 7.2 | 29 | 0.01 | 4.7 | | DEF | James Tarkowski | Everton | £6.0m | 7.2 | 29 | 0.20 | 13.6 | | DEF | Riccardo Calafiori | Arsenal | £5.8m | 7.0 | 28 | 1.19 | 11.8 | | DEF | Semi Ajayi | Hull City | £4.2m | 6.5 | 26 | 0.65 | 10.7 | | MID | Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | £9.5m | 7.5 | 30 | 3.49 | 30.3 | | MID | Kevin Schade | Brentford | £6.0m | 7.5 | 30 | 1.27 | 20.1 | | MID | Marcus Tavernier | Bournemouth | £6.0m | 7.2 | 29 | 2.49 | 27.6 | | MID | Cody Gakpo | Liverpool | £7.2m | 7.2 | 29 | 1.66 | 27.7 | | FWD | João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | Chelsea | £7.7m | 8.2 | 33 | 2.37 | 26.9 | | FWD | Erling Haaland | Man City | £15.5m | 6.0 | 24 | 2.96 | 30.4 | | FWD | Alexander Isak | Liverpool | £9.1m | 6.2 | 25 | 2.85 | 29.1 | **Total cost:** £105.0m **Total points from the supplied data:** **312** **Formation:** **3-4-3** ## Goalkeeper: David Raya Martín Raya narrowly beats Konstantinos Tzolakis as the goalkeeper pick, leading the position with **29 points** and a **7.2 form rating**. His £6.0m price is higher than Tzolakis’ £4.6m, but Raya provides the strongest overall points and form combination among the available goalkeepers. ## Defence: Maximum output from three defenders ### James Tarkowski — Everton Tarkowski is the standout defender in the data, matching Raya’s 29 points and 7.2 form. His **13.6 ICT Index** is also the highest among the listed defenders, while his 0.20 xGI suggests some attacking potential alongside his defensive appeal. ### Riccardo Calafiori — Arsenal Calafiori combines elite ownership with excellent underlying numbers. His **1.19 xGI** is one of the strongest defensive figures available, supported by 0.60 expected goals and 0.59 expected assists. He has returned 28 points at a reasonable £5.8m price. ### Semi Ajayi — Hull City Ajayi completes the back three after producing 26 points at just £4.2m. His **0.65 expected goals** leads the listed defenders, making him an appealing budget option with genuine attacking upside. ## Midfield: Four high-form, high-involvement picks ### Bukayo Saka — Arsenal Saka leads all listed midfielders for points alongside Schade, with 30, and owns the highest midfield xGI at **3.49**. His **30.3 ICT Index** confirms his significant involvement, while his 7.5 form makes him an obvious premium midfield selection. ### Kevin Schade — Brentford Schade is one of the week’s clearest value picks. He has 30 points, a 7.5 form rating and costs only £6.0m. His 1.27 xGI and six bonus points underline the strength of his recent output. ### Marcus Tavernier — Bournemouth Tavernier offers an excellent statistical balance: 29 points, 7.2 form, a **2.49 xGI** and a 27.6 ICT Index. His eight bonus points are the highest total among the selected XI, further strengthening his case. ### Cody Gakpo — Liverpool Gakpo makes the team with 29 points and a 7.2 form rating. His **1.22 expected assists** is the best among the listed midfielders, giving him a strong creative profile to complement his attacking threat. ### Midfield comparison | Player | Points | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Price | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Bukayo Saka | 30 | 7.5 | 3.49 | 30.3 | £9.5m | | Kevin Schade | 30 | 7.5 | 1.27 | 20.1 | £6.0m | | Marcus Tavernier | 29 | 7.2 | 2.49 | 27.6 | £6.0m | | Cody Gakpo | 29 | 7.2 | 1.66 | 27.7 | £7.2m | ## Attack: The highest-scoring forward trio ### João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus — Chelsea João Pedro is the leading forward and the highest-scoring player in the entire dataset, with **33 points** and an outstanding **8.2 form rating**. His 2.17 expected goals and seven bonus points make him the natural captaincy candidate based on the available data. ### Erling Haaland — Manchester City Haaland’s 24 points are lower than several forwards in the list, but his underlying numbers remain exceptional. He leads all listed forwards for xGI at **2.96**, including 2.46 expected goals, and has an 8.0 points-per-game figure. ### Alexander Isak — Liverpool Isak completes the attack with 25 points and a 2.85 xGI. His 2.79 expected goals rank just behind Haaland, giving Liverpool two representatives in the XI while keeping the squad within the three-player club limit. ## Captain and vice-captain - **Captain: João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus** — the highest points total, best form rating and seven bonus points among the available forwards. - **Vice-captain: Erling Haaland** — the strongest forward for xGI and points per game in the dataset. ## Club-limit check - **Arsenal:** Raya, Calafiori, Saka — 3 players - **Liverpool:** Gakpo, Isak — 2 players - **Everton:** Tarkowski — 1 player - **Hull City:** Ajayi — 1 player - **Brentford:** Schade — 1 player - **Bournemouth:** Tavernier — 1 player - **Chelsea:** João Pedro — 1 player - **Manchester City:** Haaland — 1 player The squad satisfies the maximum-three-player rule for every club. ## Conclusion This GW5 Optimal 11 prioritises the strongest combination of points, form and underlying attacking involvement. João Pedro leads the line after topping the overall scoring charts, while Haaland, Saka, Tavernier and Isak provide the highest xGI profiles in their respective positions. With **312 combined points from the supplied data**, this 3-4-3 offers a powerful balance of reliability, value and explosive potential.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 5
FPL Admin
Transfers2026-09-12

FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Market: Rogers Leads the Charge as Injury Exits Gather Pace

## Gameweek 5 Transfer Market Report The Gameweek 5 market is being driven by a blend of strong recent returns, impressive underlying numbers and a few clear availability concerns. **Morgan Rogers is the headline transfer target**, while several popular exits look justified by either poor form or a doubtful status. However, not every rising name has the data to support the hype. ## The biggest transfer-in trends | Player | Transfers In | Price | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Ownership | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Morgan Rogers | 85,742 | £7.6m | 6.8 | 2.55 | 28.7 | 35.0% | | Mohamed Belloumi | 45,754 | £5.0m | 6.8 | 0.56 | 11.1 | 1.5% | | João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | 34,324 | £7.7m | 8.2 | 2.37 | 26.9 | 73.9% | | Kevin Schade | 33,817 | £6.0m | 7.5 | 1.27 | 20.1 | 4.0% | | Martin Ødegaard | 31,210 | £6.7m | 6.8 | 2.26 | 27.1 | 18.5% | | Semi Ajayi | 27,430 | £4.2m | 6.5 | 0.65 | 10.7 | 12.8% | | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 23,728 | £4.5m | 2.8 | 0.01 | 2.8 | 16.9% | | Riccardo Calafiori | 22,487 | £5.8m | 7.0 | 1.19 | 11.8 | 49.3% | ### Rogers is the clear standout **Morgan Rogers has attracted 85,742 transfers in**, comfortably the largest figure in the supplied data. The move is supported by a strong statistical profile: 27 points, 6.8 form, a 2.55 xGI and a 28.7 ICT Index. His 35.0% ownership is significant without making him universally owned, suggesting the market still sees room for further growth. Rogers also has the strongest xGI among the incoming players listed, narrowly ahead of João Pedro and Ødegaard. This makes his popularity look more evidence-based than purely reactionary. ### João Pedro offers form and points, but little ownership protection João Pedro has the best form of any incoming player at **8.2**, alongside 33 points and seven bonus points. His 2.37 xGI is also excellent. The main question is not his recent output, but whether managers are simply trying to catch up with a player already owned by 73.9% of teams. This is a high-performing transfer rather than a differential move. Managers buying him are backing continued returns, not gaining a major ownership advantage. ### Ødegaard is backed by strong underlying numbers Martin Ødegaard’s 27 points and 6.8 form are complemented by a 2.26 xGI and a 27.1 ICT Index. His expected assists of 1.25 are the highest among the incoming players, while his £6.7m price sits below the cost of both Rogers and João Pedro. The 31,210 transfers in appear relatively logical. His numbers suggest more than a short-term points chase, although his 18.5% ownership means he is not an ultra-differential selection. ### Schade and Belloumi: promising, but with different levels of evidence Kevin Schade has delivered 30 points and 7.5 form at £6.0m, with 1.27 xGI and a 20.1 ICT Index. His 4.0% ownership gives him genuine differential appeal. The underlying numbers are not as strong as those of Rogers, João Pedro or Ødegaard, but the combination of form, price and low ownership makes the move understandable. Mohamed Belloumi is the more speculative purchase. He has 27 points and 6.8 form at just £5.0m, but his xGI of 0.56 and ICT Index of 11.1 are considerably lower than the leading transfer targets. With only 1.5% ownership, he is clearly being bought as a budget differential. The trend could pay off, but the available data offers less statistical support. ### The questionable incoming moves **Ezri Konsa Ngoyo is the biggest red flag among the transfer-in list.** His 11 points and 2.8 form are weak, while his xGI is only 0.01 and his ICT Index is 2.8. The transfer activity may be driven by price or defensive expectations, but the supplied attacking data provides almost no evidence of upside. Semi Ajayi and Riccardo Calafiori have stronger recent numbers. Ajayi has 26 points and 6.5 form at £4.2m, though his xGI of 0.65 is modest. Calafiori’s 28 points, 7.0 form and 1.19 xGI look more convincing, but his 49.3% ownership means the move is more about joining a popular trend than finding a hidden gem. ## The biggest transfer-out trends | Player | Transfers Out | Price | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Status | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|:---:| | Dominik Szoboszlai | 44,773 | £7.0m | 4.5 | 2.09 | 25.5 | Available | | Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues | 24,180 | £7.9m | 1.2 | 2.54 | 13.8 | Available | | Cody Gakpo | 21,122 | £7.2m | 7.2 | 1.66 | 27.7 | Available | | Pedro Porro Sauceda | 19,336 | £5.5m | 2.0 | 0.52 | 9.3 | Doubtful | | Mamadou Sangaré | 19,067 | £5.7m | 5.5 | 1.06 | 14.1 | Available | | Luke Shaw | 18,720 | £4.4m | 1.8 | 0.53 | 18.4 | Doubtful | | Alexander Isak | 17,546 | £9.1m | 6.2 | 2.85 | 29.1 | Available | | Christos Tzolis | 17,067 | £6.4m | 3.5 | 0.65 | 18.8 | Available | ### The injury-led exits look sensible Pedro Porro and Luke Shaw are both marked **doubtful**, and they have recorded 19,336 and 18,720 transfers out respectively. Their recent form is also poor: 2.0 for Porro and 1.8 for Shaw. These exits appear to have a clear data-based explanation, combining availability concerns with limited recent output. ### Thiago is losing managers despite strong xGI Igor Thiago has the weakest form in the entire transfer-out group at 1.2, with only five points. Yet his 2.54 xGI is one of the highest figures in the list, behind only Isak’s 2.85 and ahead of Szoboszlai’s 2.09. This is an important warning against judging solely by recent points. Selling Thiago may be understandable for managers prioritising current returns, but the underlying numbers suggest the move could be a knee-jerk if there is no other reason to leave him. ### Isak and Gakpo are the most debatable sales Alexander Isak has the best xGI among all players in the data at 2.85, a 29.1 ICT Index, 25 points and 6.2 form. Despite this, 17,546 managers have transferred him out. Based on the supplied numbers alone, Isak looks like one of the clearest potential overreactions in the market. Cody Gakpo’s exit trend is similarly debatable. He has 29 points, 7.2 form and the second-highest ICT Index among the listed outgoing players at 27.7. His xGI of 1.66 is lower than several alternatives, but his recent output does not strongly support a mass sale. ### Szoboszlai’s sales are more understandable, but not risk-free Dominik Szoboszlai is the most transferred-out player in the data, with 44,773 exits. His form of 4.5 is underwhelming, although his 2.09 xGI and 25.5 ICT Index show that he still carries meaningful attacking involvement. The trend is understandable when compared with incoming options such as Rogers and Ødegaard, who both have better form and stronger recent points profiles. Still, selling Szoboszlai is not a move entirely free of risk because his underlying numbers remain competitive. ## Smart moves or knee-jerks? ### Transfers that look smart - **Morgan Rogers in:** Excellent xGI, strong ICT Index, good form and substantial recent output. - **Martin Ødegaard in:** Strong expected-assist numbers, solid xGI and a reasonable £6.7m price. - **João Pedro in:** The best form and highest points total among the incoming players, supported by a 2.37 xGI. - **Pedro Porro and Luke Shaw out:** Both are doubtful and have poor recent form. - **Cody Gakpo out only with a clear plan:** His sale is understandable only if funds are needed for a stronger statistical upgrade. ### Transfers that look more like knee-jerks - **Ezri Konsa in:** Low form, minimal xGI and a very low ICT Index make the move difficult to justify from the supplied data. - **Mohamed Belloumi in:** A tempting £5.0m differential, but his underlying numbers are modest. - **Igor Thiago out:** Poor recent returns are being chased despite a strong 2.54 xGI. - **Alexander Isak out:** His 2.85 xGI and 29.1 ICT Index make the scale of the sales difficult to support statistically. ## Conclusion The Gameweek 5 market has one especially clear signal: **Morgan Rogers is being bought for reasons that the data supports**. João Pedro and Ødegaard also have strong cases, while Schade offers an intriguing low-ownership alternative. The outgoing market is more mixed. Doubtful defenders are logical sales, but the departures of Isak, Gakpo and Thiago deserve caution because their underlying numbers remain useful. The best approach is to separate genuine form and availability information from simple points-chasing. In this market, not every popular move is a smart one—and not every player losing transfers should be discarded.

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GWGameweek 5
FPL Admin
Rising Stars2026-02-27

GW28 Rising Stars: The Non-Template Picks with Elite Form (and the Numbers to Back It)

## Introduction Gameweek 28 is where FPL seasons swing: the template tightens, differentials dry up, and the best way to climb is to spot **high-form players before they become obvious**. Below are 10 “Rising Stars” — players delivering right now with **low-to-mid ownership**, backed by underlying data like **xGI** and **ICT Index**. We’ll focus on **why they’re succeeding**, what the numbers suggest, and whether they look **sustainable long-term**. --- ## The GW28 Rising Stars Snapshot A quick comparison of the key attacking indicators (xGI), overall involvement (ICT), and current form. | Player | Team | Price | Ownership | Form | Points | xGI | ICT Index | Bonus | PPG | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Nico O'Reilly** | Man City | 5.0 | 9.1% | **8.2** | 117 | 4.61 | 108.0 | 6 | 4.5 | | **James Hill** | Bournemouth | 4.1 | 6.1% | **7.2** | 65 | 1.05 | 46.1 | 2 | 3.6 | | **Dango Ouattara** | Brentford | 5.9 | 2.3% | 5.8 | 89 | **7.30** | 94.5 | 10 | 4.2 | | **Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha** | Bournemouth | 5.6 | 2.4% | 5.5 | 22 | 1.61 | 26.5 | 2 | **5.5** | | **Ibrahima Konaté** | Liverpool | 5.4 | 4.0% | 6.8 | 108 | 1.92 | 83.1 | 8 | 4.2 | | **Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez** | Fulham | 6.1 | 2.4% | 5.8 | 94 | **10.40** | **133.4** | 7 | 3.6 | | **Viktor Gyökeres** | Arsenal | 8.8 | 12.2% | **7.0** | 91 | 9.89 | 113.9 | 11 | 3.5 | | **Benjamin Sesko** | Man Utd | 7.2 | 4.1% | 5.8 | 79 | 6.47 | 103.8 | **15** | 3.6 | | **Diogo Dalot Teixeira** | Man Utd | 4.5 | 4.9% | 5.5 | 93 | 3.41 | 93.4 | 9 | 3.7 | | **Alex Scott** | Bournemouth | 5.0 | **1.2%** | 6.0 | 95 | 3.89 | 88.6 | 6 | 3.5 | **What jumps out for GW28:** - **Elite xGI leaders:** Raúl (10.40), Gyökeres (9.89), Ouattara (7.30), Sesko (6.47) - **Best form:** O’Reilly (8.2), Hill (7.2), Gyökeres (7.0), Konaté (6.8) - **True differentials by ownership:** Alex Scott (1.2%), Ouattara (2.3%), Raúl (2.4%), Rayan (2.4%) --- ## The Headliners (High Ceiling, Still Not Template) ### **Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez (Fulham) — The xGI Monster Nobody Owns** Raúl is the standout “how is this not template?” name in this list. **Why he’s succeeding (data-led):** - **xGI: 10.40** (best of all Rising Stars) - **ICT Index: 133.4** (best of all Rising Stars) - Despite only **2.4% ownership**, he’s producing the kind of underlying output you normally associate with premium forwards. **Sustainability check:** - The combination of **elite xGI + elite ICT** is exactly what you want for long-term viability. - The only caution from this dataset: his **PPG is 3.6**, which suggests returns may have been a bit streaky relative to the underlying numbers. **GW28 takeaway:** If you want a forward differential with the strongest statistical case, **Raúl is the headline pick**. --- ### **Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) — The Near-Template Differential** At **12.2% ownership**, Gyökeres is the closest to “mainstream” here — but he’s not fully template, and the numbers are premium. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Form: 7.0** (top tier) - **xGI: 9.89** (second only to Raúl) - **ICT: 113.9** (strong all-round involvement) - **Bonus: 11** indicates he’s not just scoring — he’s influencing games. **Sustainability check:** - Strong xGI + strong form is a classic “keep buying until the price/ownership catches up” profile. - His **PPG (3.5)** is modest for the underlying output, so there’s room for either improvement (good) or continued underperformance (risk). **GW28 takeaway:** A high-upside forward who can still function as a differential in many mini-leagues. --- ### **Dango Ouattara (Brentford) — The Low-Owned xGI Bet** Ouattara is the kind of pick that wins you a gameweek when it hits. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **xGI: 7.30** is elite for a **2.3% owned** player - **ICT: 94.5** supports that he’s involved in dangerous moments - **Bonus: 10** suggests his returns often come with extra points. **Sustainability check:** - The underlying output is strong enough to justify continued investment. - His **form (5.8)** is good rather than explosive — so he’s more “steady differential” than “must-buy now.” **GW28 takeaway:** If you’re chasing rank, Ouattara is a **high-upside, low-ownership** play with real statistical backing. --- ## Mid-Price Movers (Great Form, Still Under the Radar) ### **Nico O'Reilly (Man City) — Form King at a Bargain Price** O’Reilly is the best “value + form” blend in the entire list. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Form: 8.2** (best of all Rising Stars) - **Price: 5.0** makes him easy to fit - **xGI: 4.61** and **ICT: 108.0** show genuine involvement, not just random points - Massive market momentum: **509,018 transfers in** **Sustainability check:** - The underlying numbers are strong enough to support continued returns. - The big warning sign is structural rather than statistical: once a player is pulling **that many transfers in**, they can stop being a “Rising Star” and start becoming a **bandwagon** — meaning you may lose differential value quickly. **GW28 takeaway:** If you want the in-form mid-price pick before he becomes unavoidable, **GW28 is the window**. --- ### **Alex Scott (Bournemouth) — The 1.2% Owned Enabler with Real Output** Scott is the purest differential in the dataset. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Ownership: 1.2%** (lowest here) - **Form: 6.0** is strong - **xGI: 3.89** and **ICT: 88.6** suggest he’s not just getting lucky **Sustainability check:** - The xGI is solid for a 5.0-priced player. - His **PPG (3.5)** is fine, but not explosive — think “quietly good” rather than “captainable.” **GW28 takeaway:** A smart pick if you need a **differential midfielder** without spending big. --- ## Defensive & Bonus Angles (Points Without Needing Goals) ### **Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool) — Form + Bonus from a Low-Owned Defender** Konaté offers a different route to points: defensive returns plus bonus. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Form: 6.8** (elite for a defender) - **Points: 108** with only **4.0% ownership** - **Bonus: 8** indicates he’s often among the top performers when Liverpool do well - **xGI: 1.92** adds a small attacking layer **Sustainability check:** - Defenders with strong form and bonus potential can be sustainable, especially when they don’t rely on attacking returns. - His profile is less “explosive” than the forwards, but more stable. **GW28 takeaway:** A strong non-template defensive pick if you want **steady points and bonus potential**. --- ### **Diogo Dalot Teixeira (Man Utd) — Attacking Defender Profile** Dalot’s appeal is that his underlying numbers look more like a midfielder’s than a defender’s. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **xGI: 3.41** is excellent for a 4.5 defender - **Expected assists: 2.04** is the standout component - **ICT: 93.4** supports consistent involvement - **Bonus: 9** adds upside when returns land **Sustainability check:** - Assist-driven defenders can be sustainable if involvement stays high. - His **form (5.5)** is solid, suggesting he’s not just riding one big haul. **GW28 takeaway:** A strong pick if you want a defender with **attacking routes + bonus** at a budget-friendly price. --- ## The Bournemouth Cluster (Cheap, In-Form, But Know What You’re Buying) Bournemouth feature heavily here: **Hill, Rayan, Scott**. That can be a gift (value concentration) or a trap (overexposure). The key is understanding each profile. ### **James Hill (Bournemouth) — Budget Form with Modest Underlyings** - **Form: 7.2** is excellent - **Price: 4.1** is pure squad value - But **xGI: 1.05** and **ICT: 46.1** are relatively low **Sustainability check:** - This looks more like a **points run** than a guaranteed long-term attacking/bonus profile. ### **Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha (Bournemouth) — High PPG, Small Sample Warning** - **PPG: 5.5** is the best in the list - But only **22 points** total suggests limited data volume - **xGI: 1.61** and **ICT: 26.5** are low **Sustainability check:** - The PPG is eye-catching, but the underlying indicators suggest caution: this could cool quickly. --- ## Bonus Magnet Watch (Sneaky Edge in Tight Gameweeks) When margins are thin, bonus can separate good picks from great ones. **Top bonus earners in this Rising Stars group:** - **Benjamin Sesko (15)** - **Viktor Gyökeres (11)** - **Dango Ouattara (10)** - **Diogo Dalot (9)** ### **Benjamin Sesko (Man Utd) — Bonus-Driven Forward Upside** Sesko’s profile is built for hauls when he hits. - **xGI: 6.47** and **ICT: 103.8** are strong - **Bonus: 15** is the best in the dataset - **Ownership: 4.1%** keeps him firmly non-template **Sustainability check:** - Strong xGI + elite bonus suggests his returns aren’t purely random. - Form (5.8) is solid, not scorching — but the bonus profile is a real differentiator. --- ## GW28 Recommendations (By FPL Need) - **Best overall differential (stats-first):** **Raúl Jiménez** (xGI 10.40, ICT 133.4, 2.4% owned) - **Best in-form value pick:** **Nico O’Reilly** (Form 8.2, £5.0) - **Best “near-template but still leverage” forward:** **Gyökeres** (xGI 9.89, Form 7.0) - **Best high-upside low-owned attacker:** **Ouattara** (xGI 7.30, 2.3% owned) - **Best attacking defender value:** **Dalot** (xGI 3.41, xA 2.04, £4.5) - **Best steady defensive option:** **Konaté** (Form 6.8, 108 points, 4.0% owned) - **Deep differential midfielder:** **Alex Scott** (1.2% owned, xGI 3.89) --- ## Conclusion GW28 is a perfect time to pivot from safe picks into **Rising Stars** — players with **real form and underlying numbers** who haven’t yet become automatic selections. If you want the most data-backed bets, **Raúl** and **Gyökeres** lead the xGI race, **O’Reilly** is the form standout at a bargain price, and **Ouattara/Sesko** offer genuine differential upside with strong supporting metrics. The edge now is simple: **buy the performance before it becomes consensus** — and let GW28 be the week you move first.

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GWGameweek 28
FPL Admin