Live book · scored in public · open methodology
Most research hides its book and never keeps score. We publish the names we hold and the ones we're circling — each with the exact trigger that would prove it wrong — then resolve them in public, played-out or invalidated, and Brier-scored. Falsifiable, dated, nothing to sell.
The state of the research
Track record
142 resolved142resolved · Brier 0.25
58 played out · 84 invalidated — each vs its own published kill level.
What changed · 7d
15 new · 26 resolvedThe book · held + circling
27 held · 33 circlingHot · momentum
15 themes acceleratingCatalysts · this week
100 this weekThemes in motion
15 accelerating · 6 maturingSource: orbyd nightly pipeline — computed from US market close data, as of (Europe/Berlin).
Ranked · highest conviction first
LSTR
Landstar System, Inc.
Theme cluster led by RXO peer name. Stated win-probability p=0.62. A genuine freight-cycle upturn after a multi-year trucking recession: brokerage, LTL and truckload volumes and spot rates are re-accelerating, lifting asset-light and…
MRCY
Mercury Systems Inc
Defense-electronics turnaround re-rating inside an accelerating modernization tape: Q3 FY26 (2026-05-06) printed record bookings $348M (+73.7% YoY), 1.48 book-to-bill, record ~$1.6B backlog and +46% EBITDA, with FCF guided positive. But…
OKTA
Okta, Inc.
Identity-security re-rating entering a second, sell-side-led leg: a post-print upgrade wave (KeyBanc street-high $175 on 07-10, Scotiabank upgrade to $165 on 07-06) is still building six weeks after the 05-29 beat-and-raise, lifting the…
OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc.
Margin-recovery re-rate has carried the ACA pure-play leader to new highs, clearing the $30.38 prior 52-wk high on the +11% July 1 break with managed-care breadth (CNC/MOH/AGL) accelerating. But at $30.54 it trades ~28% above the $23.8…
RXO
RXO, Inc.
Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to…
SIMO
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
NAND-controller toll-booth on the steepest flash shortage in ~15 years: TrendForce H1 2026 contract +>100% cumulative, H2 still rising with no capacity adds. Q1 record +105% YoY, sell-side chasing to $400/$450. Fundamental leg…
Themes · accelerating
Micron-led memory rally, Nasdaq 100 tops 29k, BlackRock calls the chip rout overdone, NVDA/AMD $170B-TAM framing narrative re-accelerated off the mid-month selloff. Fresh money rotating back into memory/compute leaders.
Dossiers in this theme →Dell surges on Supermicro's strong order signal, Vertiv expanding liquid-cooling capacity in Italy plus whale flow. The physical AI-buildout layer keeps ripping alongside the neoclouds.
Dossiers in this theme →Event-driven names heating up: Helus completes Phase 3 MDD enrollment (topline pending), Monopar begins rolling FDA NDA (PT $125), GH Research pops, Inventiva initiated Overweight. Catalyst density rising.
Dossiers in this theme →The live book · held + circling
Not a logo wall published a quarter late — the names we hold right now, and the ones we're circling, each with its thesis and the trigger that would prove it wrong. Live and reasoned — each name dated, with the trigger that would prove it wrong.
Discovery views
Most recent journal entry
RISK-ON
Excerpt
RISK-ON, consecutive print #29 (n=29) on the public ledger and a one-day continuation of the 07-22 read. The vol side finally joined the equity block: VIX dropped into the calm band at 17.05, clearing the elevated zone it had been pinned to and restoring a genuine cushion rather than the thin one that band allowed. Breadth eased a touch to 57.8% (565/977)…
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Thesis, invalidation, catalyst — per ticker.
Open →The live book: held + circling. Names + research only.
Open →Which clusters are accelerating, maturing, saturated.
Open →Dated catalysts ahead — this week, next, later.
Open →Every regime call, dated and indexed.
Open →Every resolved thesis, graded against its own trigger.
Open →Where the flow is rotating, week by week.
Open →Five stages, archetype taxonomy, regime logic.
Open →Understand the system
News window
30d
per candidate, daily
Earnings transcripts
4Q
synthesised per name
Archetypes
8
behaviour profiles
Context
1M
side-by-side candidate review
What it is, why a public track record matters, and how to judge one.
Open → How it worksHow a name becomes a thesis, stage by stage.
Open → Theme radarThis week's mechanical momentum clusters — the candidate list, before any curation.
Open → Scored forecastsThe theme-bets, each with a stated probability — open bets and refusals, graded in public.
Open → Kill gatesThe pre-registered, tighten-only conditions that shut the strategy down.
Open → Anatomy of a dossierA live dossier dissected — each part mapped to its stage and model.
Open → RegimesThe macro-regime taxonomy and exactly what each regime gates.
Open → ArchetypesEight behaviour profiles, each a hard rule on how big a name can get.
Open → Why trust itThe honesty mechanisms: invalidation triggers, dated reads, nothing to sell.
Open → State of the bookLive coverage — names tracked, conviction mix, themes, current regime.
Open →Common questions
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Agent endpointsThemes we're tracking
Archetypes in rotation · behaviour profiles