Warzone: Atlanta - Final Lists - Blood Angels 2.0 and Field Analysis

A few weeks ago I shared my planned list for Warzone: Atlanta in a couple weeks. With lists due last week I am locked in with my list, as is the rest of the field.

Mathhammer - Taking Variance Into Account

A couple months ago I listened to an episode of The Best General that blew my mind and made me question how I managed my pregame and in-game expectations. Specifically, it was Episode 14, where Adam spoke with Eric Lofgren of Variance Hammer; Eric brought up that there is an inherent issue with looking purely at averages when evaluating units in Warhammer because averages rely on the law of large numbers, which overlooks the variance in our actual, on the table results.

Don't Break 8th! An Appeal to the Community

So, the New Warhammer 40,000 has only been officially out for a few days, and already there is a lot of discussion on what needs to be "fixed." It shouldn't be surprising, I suppose, but it leads me to writing this, and I hope you'll hear me out:

Leave the rules alone and play it as it lies for now.

LVO Day 1 Top Player Breakdown

After day one of LVO was in the books, I decided to take a look at the remaining undefeated players from this massive field. After the first three rounds, there were 39 players with a 3-0 record. For ease of data entry, I'm only looking at this segment of the field (for now at least). Note, this does not include 2-0-1 players who are undefeated but will have a tough road to make the cut for Day 3.

NOVA Recap Part 2 - 40k GT Stats

For this part of my NOVA recap, I wanted to dive back into my stat analysis role from Torrent of Fire and break down the results. Field of Fire took a crack at the stats from the event, and I'll probably be retracing some of that ground but looking to dig a little deeper. Part of this is massaging the data a bit to get slightly more accurate results. For example, Chaos Space Marines as listed did very well, but we need to differentiate between any Chaos Space Marine primary lists and those that were actually Renegades primary.

LVO by the Numbers

So, with LVO over and done with, I wanted to take a quick look at how the various armies fared, who made day three, and overall outcomes and impressions from the event as a distant bystander. First, the armies. This analysis has actually been done elsewhere - some people beat me to the punch, but I've included some nice pretty charts, so I'll talk about it anyway.

LVO Update - Top 8

So the event is over (Championship tomorrow) and the top 8 is set. See below:

LVO Updates

Just a quick update as day 2 of the LVO is underway. The current standings and results can be found at this tracking system, however, it only shows the current round. With the help of Chip from Torrent of Fire, I've been gathering the round by round data and compiling it to maintain a leaderboard. Unfortunately I don't have factions, so can't keep everyone in the loop there, but if you want to check it out, simply go here for my working Google Spreadsheet with standings and round by round results, as well as the current pairings.

LVO Predictions

Starting tomorrow is the third annual Las Vegas Open, which includes the biggest 40k Singles event in the world, with over 300 players registered. This high profile event has become the cornerstone of the ITC and serves as the final event in the year long ITC Season, where a winner will be crowned and receive a cash prize; last year's winner, Paul McKelvey, received a check for $2,000 for winning the 2014 ITC season.

In honor of the largest 40k event in the world, I'm going to make an almost entirely unsupported and likely biased stab at predicting the winners and armies that have the best shot at winning this absolutely massive event. The odds are definitely against me; last year, Sean Nayden won with the highly surprising Lictorshame Tyranids list. I won't be predicting a repeat of Tyranids at the top.

Top 10 Strongest Units in 40k

A while back I put together a survey and posted it up. I quite simply asked, what are the strongest units in 40k? This survey was intentionally left extremely vague, with the only description as below:

Trying to get some information on perceived power levels and which units are broadly considered best in the current state of 40k. Your answers do not need to be in any particular order, but pick your top 5 most powerful units (including single model units or characters) in the game. 

That was it. I got lots of comments about needing to qualify what I was looking for, but in the end I think I made the right decision by doing as little as possible to put any sort of lens or scope on the results. I got about 200 respondents, who contributed 772 units they considered the top units in the game. Thanks to everyone who responded.

Torrent of Fire Article:

My most recent Torrent of Fire article is up, and I look at the stats from this and last year's NOVA and evaluate my predictions for the top bracket.

The Imperium represented about as predicted, and did much better than I thought they would. Check out the full article.

Torrent of Fire Article: 6th Edition Codices in 7th

My newest Torrent of Fire Article is up. This time I took a look at the six remaining 6th Edition Codices and looked at how they've been faring in terms of popularity and win rates.

I found the results actually a bit surprising. Check out the full article and keep your eyes peeled for my NOVA predictions in the next week or so.

Torrent of Fire Article: 7th Edition - 1 Year In

My most recent Torrent of Fire article has been posted. This time, I take a look at the year plus of results for 7th edition and see who comes out on top.

The bit of analysis I found the most interesting was looking at the best and worst alliances to take. Check out the results here.

Torrent of Fire Article: Adepticon Army Breakdown

My most recent Torrent of Fire article is up and this time I'm looking at Adepticon army breakdowns. In particular I was checking on how the number of detachments influenced standings.

Also took a look at army performance by primary faction and saw some surprises, namely with Orks doing way better than they have been. Could it be people are finally unlocking the codex, or is it a result of the format? We shall see. Anyway, check out the article.

Torrent of Fire Article: LVO by the Numbers

Hey guys. My most recent Torrent of Fire article is up. This time I take a look at the numbers coming out of LVO. A good portion of the article looks at army composition, such as whether or not everyone really did take 3 Flyrants and 3 Mucolids as an ally.

Check out the full article and see how your favorite army was fielded, how many people used it, and how it did overall.

Torrent of Fire Article: Post NOVA Meta

My newest Torrent of Fire article is up and this time I took a quick look at the games in the last month since before NOVA. Thanks to NOVA, the number of games recorded in Torrent of Fire just about doubled. I also decided to compare popularity of armies between NOVA 2013 and 2014.

With the number of games, we now had enough 7th edition games to look at some quick matchup data. Check out the full article on Torrent of Fire.

Torrent of Fire Article: NOVA By the Numbers

My most recent article is up on Torrent of Fire. I took a look at the numbers from the NOVA Open GT and how they compare to 7th Edition data leading up to it.

I also took a look at how my predictions leading up to NOVA as far as the top bracket panned out. I'm fairly comfortable with the results. I had 11 of the 16 armies more or less correct. The surprise to me was no Space Marine primaries making the top bracket, though a Grey Knight list with Marine allies is close.

Anyway, check out the full article for more details and analysis.

ToF Article: 7th Edition Meta So Far

My newest article on Torrent of Fire is up for my fellow stats enthusiasts. I took a look at the first three months of data and what that could mean for the future of the Meta. Eldar are still holding their own, and Space Marines are extremely popular.

Check out the full article, and see if you agree with my bold predictions for the makeup of the top bracket at NOVA.

BAO Results and Meta Moving Forward

My most recent Torrent of Fire article is up. This time I took a look at the BAO results and what that could mean for the 7th Edition Tournament Meta going forward.

Using that data, I made some predictions about where the Meta is going and what we're likely to see coming out of NOVA, Feast of Blades, and other big upcoming tournaments. Check out the article and let me know what you think

7th Edition Matchup Shifts on Torrent of Fire

Just wanted to let you know my most recent article for Torrent of Fire is up. July has had less than half as many games as June, so I tried to look at June and July combined and how matchups now seem to be comparing to matchups through the end of 6th. 

I also looked at the overall change in Win Percentage for armies, and finally popularity. It seems like Eldar, Tau, and Daemons have seen less playtime than previously so far in 7th. Check out the full article. Hope you enjoy it.