When our side does it, it's wrong, too

This made me quite angry earlier today:

Inaccurate sample ballots describing [Maryland] Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. and Senate candidate Michael S. Steele as Democrats were handed out to voters in at least four polling sites in Prince George's County this morning.

The ballots were distributed by people who said they arrived by buses this morning from Pennsylvania and Delaware.

Erik Markle, one of the people handing out literature for Ehrlich, who is seeking reelection, and Steele, the current lieutenant governor who is campaigning to replace retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D), said he was recruited at a homeless shelter in Philadelphia.

After a two-hour bus ride to Maryland, Markle said the workers were greeted early this morning by first lady Kendel Ehrlich, who thanked them as they were outfitted in T-shirts and hats with the logo for Ehrlich's reelection campaign. Nearly all of those recruited, Markle said, are poor and black. Workers traveled to Maryland in at least seven large buses.

That's just a sampling of the kind of shennanigans Republicans seem to be up to today (nothing on that scale seems to be coming in from Dems) in a sneaky, underhanded attempt to trick people into voting for them. If Republicans don't have enough faith in their own candidates--or in the name of their own party--to let them stand on their merits, then maybe they should consider what to change internally instead of playing this kind of dirty pool

Then I saw this:

Plenty of people are talking about the phone messages they received today from Fair Wisconsin, the group pushing for a no vote on the marriage amendment.

Many are hopping mad at what they consider to be misleading messages. The messages urge a vote of "no'' to protect family values and to protect the state against activist judges. That's the kind of language normally targeted at a conservative audience. [. . .]

This is what [one call recipient] recorded from his phone:

"Hi, this is Sue. Today is election day, and when you go to vote, I urge you to remember our children. I urge you to vote No on the constitutional amendment on gay marriage. Vote No to send a message that some things are too important to change. In Wisconsin, marriage is a man and a woman. Vote No to make sure activist judges don't get involved and determine what marriage might mean, like they have in other states. Vote No to protect our children, our families, and our way of life. Vote No on the gay marriage amendment. Authorized and paid for by Fair Wisconsin Committee, Michael Childress, Treasurer."

And I got upset again.

Look, we can debate (we have debated, and probably will continue to debate) about the extent to which judges and courts will get involved whichever way the amendment goes tonight. We can (have, will continue to) debate which way--yes or no--constitutes keeping the status quo.

But this script is wrong--not quite as wrong as bussing in homeless people to hand out phony and deceptive voter guides calling the Republicans' marquee candidates Democrats, but wrong nonetheless. Fair Wisconsin has a strong message of fairness that needed to be reinforced today. At the very most, a reminder that this amendment would prohibit the legislature from implementing civil unions, something a wide majority of the state is actually in favor of. I have a hard time believing this script really could have tested well enough that Mike Tate (hi Mike! I still like you as a person!) and the gang would risk leaving this kind of a sour taste in our collective mouth on election day.

[Update to be clear: Nothing in the call is a lie or illegal--unlike what Republicans did in Maryland, or Republican robo-callers nationwide. However, co-opting the language of the other side in an attempt to confuse people to vote for you is unambiguously wrong in my book. Hope that helps.]

Predictions. But Don't Hold Me to Them.

I've learned my lesson, so I'm going to throw in predictions for easy races. Grade inflation, you know. I'll start national and then go state:

• The Democrats will take the House, picking up 20-23 seats. That's lower than most estimates, but I'd rather be pessimistic and surprised by the results.
  
  
• Democrats will not take the Senate, though they will win four or five seats. No Dem incumbents will lose, except Joe Lieberman.
  
  
• Jim Doyle will be re-elected. Owen expects a Green victory, based on the "Incumbent Rule." I say, let's ask President Kerry what he thinks of the incumbent rule. And the margin won't be that close--something in 52-48 range. Eismann just won't be a factor.
  
  
• The Falk-Van Hollen race is too close to call, almost. (That's my hedge.) That said, I think Falk will win a squeaker--this may well be the last state-wide race to get called.
  
  
• Both statewide ballot measures will probably pass. I don't put it out of the realm of possibility that the amendment will fail--Fair Wisconsin has run an airtight campaign--but momentum in the "no" direction isn't enough. I wanted to see at least one poll with the thing going down before now.
  
  
• Republicans will keep the state Assembly. I know, I know, out on a limb there. But I feel confident.
  
  
• Democrats will take the state Senate. Reynolds and Zien definitely lose. Baby-daddy McReynolds is the most likely next loser.
  
  
• Herb Kohl will . . . wait for it . . . win. By at least 20%.
  
  
• The House races:
  1. Paul Ryan
     
  2. Tammy Baldwin
     
  3. Ron Kind
     
  4. Gwen Moore
     
  5. Jim Sensenbrenner (though with a much smaller margin than in 2004)
     
  6. Tom Petri
     
  7. Dave Obey
     
  8. Steve Kagen (by five or six points)
  
  
• Despite my ringing endorsement for Don Holt, David Clarke will be re-elected.
  
  
• John Chisholm will win the Milwaukee County DA's race.
  
  
• All the various Iraq war bring-'em-home referrenda will pass.

No matter what really happens--big Dem wins or big Dem losses--I agree with Scott:

I further predict that whatever happens, the right half of the blogosphere will instantly proclaim it a victory for their side. Yes. Because someone you never heard of said on CNN three months ago that Democrats could take the senate, the fact that it didn’t happen will be touted as proof-positive that the American people have rejected the left’s flawed agenda, while giving a mandate to the Republican party to move further to the right. [Ed. See Ann Coulter, laying that groundwork.] It will also be said that we played dirty. So dirty, in fact, that the only explanation for why we didn’t win every election by a landslide is that voters utterly spurned our bankrupt ideology in favor of GOP ideals.

Add to it claims of vote fraud (crack-heads making up names for ACORN is not a winning vote-fraud strategy, by the way) and perhaps even a lawsuit by Mark Green to challenge the legality of his loss. It will get uglier before it gets better. That is a prediction you can take to the bank.

No Wonder I Feel so . . . Average

by folkbum

Chris Bowers at MyDD today points us to a study by CNN that tried, crazy as this sounds, to determine how close any given state was to the average of all states nationwide. Guess who's least abnormal?

Wisconsin!

From the CNN story:

The Badger State comes closer than any other to state-by-state averages on 12 key measures, according to a new analysis by CNN Polling Director Keating Holland that takes a fresh look at U.S. Census data.

"For years, politicians who put the presidential calendar together have wrestled with the question of which states really are the most typical or more representative of the country," Holland said. "Here is one way to determine that."

Holland identified 12 key statistics--four that measure race and ethnicity, four that look at income and education, and four that describe the typical neighborhood in each state--and added up how far each was from the figures for the average state on each measure. Holland said he chose these 12 different categories because "they have a strong impact on the political landscape in every state." [. . ]

So, what makes Wisconsin so special--or, to put it another way, what makes Wisconsin so average? It is about as close to the average state as you can get on most of the 12 measures included in this study.

For example, let's take the number of college graduates who live in each state. Wyoming is dead center among all 50 states, with 30.22% of its population holding a college degree. In Wisconsin, the number is 30.24%.

Or take housing values. On a state-by-state basis the median housing value, in North Carolina, is just over $111,600. The median housing value in Wisconsin is roughly $111,500. The Badger State is also fairly close to the state-by-state average on population growth, home ownership, population density, and the number of blacks and Hispanics who live there. The number of whites and blue-collar workers who live in Wisconsin is much further away from the average state's figures on those measures, but not enough to keep the Badger State from claiming the top spot.

Bowers wonders, upon looking at the full rankings, how they are mathematically possible:

The scale for the study was 0.0 to 50.0, with 50.0 being the most average. However, thirty-one states composing roughly 60% of the national population came in with scores below 25.0, which I suppose would be the "half-average" score. Overall, the median score for the study was around 20, a full 20% below "half average." Also, eight states were more "non-average" than Wisconsin was "average." My question is, how exactly does it work out that over half of the nation is not representative of the nation as a whole?

That is a good question, but perhaps not an unsurprising one coming from a resident of the very non-average state of Pennsylvania, which ranked 19th.

My question is, what do you think Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce will think of this? They love surveys that rank states for stuff.

Deadline Today

• Give through ActBlue
• Don't forget $30 by the 30th--which blew past its goal this week

Three Days

That is, three days until the end-of-quarter filing deadline for candidates. You may not think, in the grand scheme of things, that giving right now--as opposed to next wek, or at the end of next month or whenever--is important, but it is, for two reasons. The first is the money makes money. Every dollar raised early in a campaign is a dollar that can be used early to raise name recognition, recruit new volunteers, and, indeed, solicit bigger fish for contributions. The second reason is the press; when a candidate comes in with a very big number, especially if it's higher than expected, there can be a lot of buzz around that candidate, and that can generate good results and even national attention in some cases.

So, here you go:
• My ActBlue page, with a whole lot of state, local, and federal Democratic candidates that I feel deserve your dough
• ActBlue's list of all the Democratic candidates for the House
• A special ActBlue page where you can be a sponsor of a Feingold event for Bryan Kennedy
• Fair Wisconsin's $30 by the 30th still needs you, as well--they seem to be about $3500 short of their goal

Also, don't forget that you have just another day or two to vote for Bryan Kennedy in Mark Warner's Mapchangers competition. Click that link (or the ad to your right) and vote for Bryan in the West division. If Bryan makes the top ten, Warner's PAC will kick in some cash, some publicity, and, if Bryan makes the top five, he'll also fly out here for some personal appearances.

$30 by 30

There's a June 30 fundraising deadline (technically, a reporting deadline), and you'll be hearing more from me about that as the time approaches. But I wanted to draw your attention to one campaign in particular: Fair Wisconsin's $30 by the 30th campaign. Fair Wisconsin is leading the effort to defeat the amendment that would constitutionally ban gay marriage, civil unions, or any other similar arrangement. This is important work, people, and even those of you on the right side of the Cheddarsphere who oppose the amendment can step up to help.

Fair Wisconsin has a modest $30,000 goal for this effort, which means just 1,000 of you need to chip in the measly $30. You can click through the link above, or go straight to the secure contribution page.

In NO! News--Big Victory for Fair Wisconsin

Among other big fights this fall--for Jim Doyle, against Sensenbrenner, and for the 8th CD--there is the fight against the amendment that bans gay marriage, civil unions, and any substantially similar arrangement.

Fair Wisconsin, the people who bring you the NO on the Amendment blog, have secured a big victory, one you won't hear about in the media, I'm sure (see update below). They announced today that they now have 72 county coordinators in the fight against the amendment:

“With six months until Election Day, we have assembled a massive grassroots outreach program with lead volunteers on the ground in every single Wisconsin county,” said Fair Wisconsin Campaign Manager Mike Tate. “These volunteers live in every corner of Wisconsin and come from all different walks of life. They are highly motivated and passionate about defeating the ban and keeping discrimination out of our constitution.”

The county coordinators will serve as leaders willing to be contacts for other volunteers in their area. They will also help to provide a local perspective on why more and more voters oppose the civil unions and marriage ban.

We need to recognize that the pro-discrimination folks will have massive mobilization as well. Fair Wisconsin's achievement here is huge and gives the good side of the force significant boots-on-the-ground capability.

Please contact Fair Wisconsin if you are interested in volunteering or donating to help the cause.

(Update: The media have covered it, kind of. Susan Lampert Smith mentions it in a bad column today, and the Wisconsin Radio Network did an item.)

The Hate Amendment, coming soon

I do hope all of you are following the news from the Action Wisconsin team and their No on the Amendment! blog. The Assembly seems poised to vote on the amendment to write the ban on gay marriage into the state Constitution next Tuesday (this would be a good time to call your Assemblyperson).

They also have had a number of interesting articles up profiling real people, and a new series profiling the real scary people, including Channel 30 fixture (Makes Me) Ralph Ovadal and the Wisconsin Marriage Defenders.