Complete returned record
{
"attribution": [
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0194,
"pair_coevents_365d": 5,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "TZ",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0182,
"pair_coevents_365d": 18,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "RU",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0162,
"pair_coevents_365d": 10,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "VE",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0155,
"pair_coevents_365d": 2,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "OM",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0148,
"pair_coevents_365d": 4,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "CN",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0148,
"pair_coevents_365d": 17,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "PK",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0143,
"pair_coevents_365d": 10,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "MM",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0138,
"pair_coevents_365d": 14,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "AE",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0131,
"pair_coevents_365d": 9,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "CU",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0129,
"pair_coevents_365d": 15,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "AZ",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0128,
"pair_coevents_365d": 8,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "JO",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0127,
"pair_coevents_365d": 17,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "EG",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0122,
"pair_coevents_365d": 8,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "IR",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0104,
"pair_coevents_365d": 11,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "BY",
"trigger_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
}
],
"base_prior_3d": 0.0091,
"base_rate_daily": 0.00302,
"country": "GA",
"follower_events_30d": 0,
"generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:17:09.254315+00:00",
"honest_caveats": [
"Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).",
"24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.",
"A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).",
"Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.",
"Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently — this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.",
"Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.",
"With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."
],
"horizon_days": 3,
"n_active_triggers": 14,
"noisy_or": 0.1834,
"rank": 20,
"score": 0.1743,
"status": "on_watchlist",
"trigger_window_hours": 48,
"underlying_model": {
"name": "contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)",
"primary_horizon_auc_h7": 0.6696949571962517,
"sidecar": "/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/contagion_chain_v1.json"
}
}