Showing posts with label US military. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US military. Show all posts

Monday, July 20, 2026

Iran/US Talks: The Negotiator Who Expected the Room to Explode

A good piece from Bruce Fanger. I am sure I am not alone in often wondering what it has been like for Iranian government officials or negotiators sitting across the negotiating table from US representatives, in this case, two real estate speculators and committed Zionists, knowing that the US and Israel have a policy of assassinating those it engages in talks. This is so-called Western Values in full swing. Bribery, intimidation, coercion, and if that fails, assassination and destruction. 


As far as retreating. It is the US that has the responsibility to retereat from an unprovoked act of aggression that included mur*ering a head of state and numerous government officials.  Richard Mellor.


Abbas Araghchi

The Negotiator Who Expected the Room to Explode 

White Rose

July 20, 2026

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi used an interview with Mehr News Agency on July 19 to describe negotiations with the United States as something conducted under the shadow of assassination, war, and regime change. 

 

His account was not a diplomatic progress report. It was an explanation of why Washington’s usual combination of military threats, economic incentives, and personal pressure had failed to produce an Iranian surrender.

 

Araghchi recalled asking President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, whether he had ever attended a negotiating session while believing the entire meeting could be bombed at any moment. He asked whether Witkoff had ever spoken on the telephone while wondering whether he might be killed before the call ended, or contacted his family fearing it could be their final conversation.

 

“They just stared at me blankly,” Araghchi said, according to English-language reports of the interview.

 

His point was blunt. American negotiators were approaching Iran as though fear alone would eventually force compliance. Araghchi argued that threats lose much of their leverage when directed at officials who already believe they may be killed.

 

“We have experienced these things and we stood our ground,” he said. “You have to talk to us differently. You can’t threaten us, and you can’t bribe us.”

 

Araghchi claimed the United States had offered to build power plants and other infrastructure in exchange for Iranian concessions. He rejected those proposals as attempted bribery rather than ordinary diplomatic bargaining. That characterization is Araghchi’s and has not been independently substantiated by the American government.

 

The central dispute, according to Araghchi, concerned Washington’s demand that Iran accept zero uranium enrichment. He called that demand illegal and unreasonable and said Iran refused to concede it during negotiations. He then accused the United States and Israel of beginning the war after diplomacy failed to deliver the result they wanted.

 

 


 That is Iran’s account of the breakdown, not an uncontested history. American and Israeli officials have consistently presented Iranian enrichment and the broader nuclear program as security threats. Araghchi’s interview was intended to establish the opposite narrative: that negotiations were used to demand capitulation and that military force followed when capitulation was refused.

 

His most striking comparison concerned Venezuela.

 

“This isn’t Venezuela where you take one person and everyone else gets scared and backs down,” Araghchi said.

 

The remark referred to the January American operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to New York. Araghchi was arguing that Iran could not be decapitated in the same manner. Removing one leader, even the most senior leader, would not necessarily cause the Iranian state, military establishment, or clerical system to collapse.

 

That claim is closely connected to another part of Araghchi’s account: Iran had prepared succession and continuity plans before the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iranian officials reportedly had predetermined procedures for replacing senior figures and continuing government operations if the leadership was attacked.

 

Araghchi therefore described two American and Israeli miscalculations. The first was the belief that Iran would accept zero enrichment when confronted with escalating pressure. The second was the belief that a short military campaign and the removal of senior leaders would fracture the state and turn the population against the government.

 

According to Araghchi, neither occurred. He claimed Iran resisted during the earlier twelve-day conflict and that Israel had been unprepared for a prolonged confrontation. He further claimed that the Iranian public did not abandon the state in the manner anticipated by its enemies.

 

Those statements must be treated as claims from a government official during wartime. Iran tightly controls domestic media, suppresses opposition, and has powerful reasons to exaggerate national unity. A population’s refusal to welcome foreign bombardment is also not the same thing as support for the Islamic Republic. Governments frequently confuse the two.

 

Still, the interview reveals something important about the negotiations. Washington appears to have treated fear, isolation, economic reward, and leadership removal as parts of the same pressure campaign. Araghchi’s response was that Iran had already priced death into the negotiation.

 

That does not make Iran invulnerable. It makes coercive diplomacy less predictable.

 

The American assumption seems to have been that sufficient pressure would eventually produce a frightened official prepared to sign whatever was placed before him. Araghchi described the Iranian side as believing that signing under threat would not necessarily save them anyway.

 

Once negotiations reach that condition, infrastructure offers sound like inducements, military warnings sound like confirmation, and compromise begins to resemble preparation for surrender.

 

Araghchi’s interview did not offer a route out of the war. It offered a warning about why the existing route had failed. The United States approached Iran expecting intimidation to create flexibility. Iran interpreted intimidation as proof that Washington wanted submission rather than agreement.

 

Both sides may believe they have demonstrated resolve. What they have actually demonstrated is that neither has yet found a way to retreat without calling it defeat. 

Friday, July 17, 2026

Speculations Over Ground Campaign into Iran Again Heat Up as US Moves to "Isolate" Coastal Zone

Speculations Over Ground Campaign into Iran Again Heat Up as US Moves to "Isolate" Coastal Zone


Simplicius July 18. 

Trump continues plying his neocon ‘forever war’ against Iran, with no plan or end in sight. Now the latest reports indicate his intention to escalate the strikes onto Iranian civil infrastructure like power plants and beyond in the coming weeks.

The more troubling reports claim that Trump continues to plan for some kind of ground assault. The caveat is that it would likely be for the islands, and not with US troops—or at least, not with US troops leading the charge. 

Trump himself intimated this, hinting that other Gulf nations should supply the ground troops. Listen to 0:25 below: 

“We have other people that would do a ground campaign for us.”

In fact, in the above interview clip Trump reveals several quite telling things.

First, note what he says about not hitting the oil terminals on Kharg island. He says they represent a major chunk of the world economy, which proves what we’ve been saying for months now—that Trump is in some ways trapped because, despite all his bluster, he would be shooting himself in the foot by destroying Iranian oil infrastructure, as it would tank his own economy, as well as the world’s.

But the more strategically revealing tidbit was his statement that: “If we degrade them far enough and deep enough back, I would [take Kharg island].”

Here he clearly admits two things: 

  1. The US currently does not have the capability to take Kharg island because it is too dangerous. Iranian capabilities are still present which would wreak havoc and casualties on US troops. 

  2. Trump’s plan appears to be to bombard the coastal region for a long time in order to degrade Iran’s strike capabilities such that they are pushed back “deep enough” so as to allow a safe enough corridor for troops to somehow land on Kharg island. 

Trump’s “ideal” holy grail is obviously to seize Iran’s oil facilities on Kharg island and thus steal the oil—which would be a true coup de grace for Trump. But the likelihood of this being successful is very small

WSJ confirms that such plans continue to populate the deluded minds of US leadership:

From the above WSJ piece:

Attempting to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export hub, would harm the country’s oil industry but it also would put American forces directly in harm’s way. Troops would be easy targets for Iranian missiles and drones, U.S. officials and analysts say.

Retired Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie said the U.S. should still consider a Kharg Island operation. “That’s something we should think about doing because possession of Iranian soil would be a significant factor in future negotiations with Iran,” he said Sunday on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”

Another WSJ piece posits an even more extreme scenario to capture all Iranian territory proper along the coast itself, rather than just the islands: 

Land invasion

At the extreme, Trump has the option of a large and costly ground operation to seize the territory around the waterway, whose rocky shores present unique challenges. That would require thousands of troops in an operation that would likely take months.

Iran has been preparing for a possible invasion since before the war. The paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has 190,000 troops, along with the country’s regular army, and specializes in fights against better-armed foes.

A ground operation on Iran’s coastline would leave U.S. troops extremely vulnerable to attacks from the country’s rear, said David Des Roches, a former Persian Gulf-focused U.S. defense official.

And some believe the US is now setting the stage and ‘shaping the battlefield’ for that very possibility: 

As the above states, yesterday the US actually hit several key bridges connecting the coastal Bandar Abbas region to its neighboring western regions of Larestan and Shiraz:

Iranian Fars News confirmed: 

Recall that the Israeli plan was to send Kurdish forces across the Iraqi border into Iran, and recently the US instigated a kind of anti-Iranian coup in Iraq, with speculation being that it was in preparation to set the stage for a ground assault into Iran by first weakening Iranian proxies in Iraq. 

Trump may be naively hoping that other Gulf countries step up to the plate and offer such ground support, which is unlikely to happen. 

Trump is being fed misinformation on Iran from his Mossad-tainted stovepipes. As an example, just take a look at the exchange below, where Trump demonstrates a complete lack of knowledge—or even care, for that matter—as to how much combat power the Iranians have left: 

So: “Nobody knows” how many missiles Iran has, not even Trump or the US. But don’t worry, Iran “will be defeated very soon”, the swaggering POTUS nonchalantly remarks:

As for Hormuz, CENTCOM continues pretending it is fully “open” as even neutral maritime carriers laugh in the US’s face: 

Read the exchange below as reported by WSJ for a belly laugh: 

Trump, on the other hand, seems to think “oil is flowing like never before”, as per another unhinged rant: 

Some pundits are now proposing that Iran could be “overplaying” its Hormuz hand because Gulf countries are slowly moving toward redirecting oil via inland pipelines, to the point where Hormuz would theoretically no longer retain leverage for Iran.

The problem with this thesis is that it misunderstands the core dynamic of the entire war. Hormuz has presented a convenient focal point for the US administration, partly because after losing the wider war against Iran, Trump thinks liberating Hormuz can be used as a quick off-ramp and getaway damage control plan to save face. 

In reality, Hormuz has nothing to do with US’s inability to defeat Iran, overthrow its leadership, and turn the country into a fractured client state and banana republic in one. 

Hormuz had nothing to do with US’s inability to defend its bases from Iranian attacks which damaged or destroyed a large swath of US’s most critical regional assets. If you removed Hormuz from the equation, it would not change the fact that US’s aimless bombing campaign is incapable of crippling the Iranian state to the needed point of no return. 

In short: Iran has successfully defended itself from an all-out attack by Israel-US via its own innate military means that have little to do with, nor rely on, Hormuz. 

Sure, the strait adds a kind of pressure timer on the US, as economic life lines slowly seep away and oil prices creep up. But even if you took that away, there still remain other important ‘timers’, not least of which are dwindling US’s weapons stocks, waning domestic political capital, etc. 

That’s without even getting into the fact that Iran can strike the newly proposed pipelines and infrastructure, which kind of obviates the whole thing to begin with. 

Latest satellite images show Iran’s newest strikes have again wiped out major sections of US and allied bases. 

Here in Jordan’s King Faisal Air Base: 

They continue to claim no casualties while large amounts of medevac-capable C-17s were again witnessed departing the region after the Iranian blows. 

Iran launches massive strikes against key US and allied facilities

▪️Satellite images show the results of strikes by the IRGC on an American maritime surveillance radar station on the Salam rocks, as well as on an air defense radar in the Ghanam area of Oman.
▪️Iran also announced strikes on three buildings in the Zaid military complex in the capital of the UAE, and on the King Faisal base in Jordan.

The MQ-9 Reaper fleet likewise continued getting massacred as another one was shot down by Iranian forces: 

Another American MQ-9A Reaper reconnaissance and strike UAV shot down by Iranian air defenses has been found in the mountains of Dehloran County, in the southern part of Ilam Province bordering Iraq.

The IRGC had previously reported that one of its air defense systems had shot down an MQ-9A somewhere near Andimeshk, in the north of Khuzestan Province. This must be the same drone, since Andimeshk and Dehloran counties directly border each other.

As of this time, the US has again been massively airlifting assets from Europe to the Mideast, including more fighter jets, which can only mean further rounds of strikes: 

Based on the recent activity of the U.S. air transport fleet in the region, it appears that the Americans are once again amassing resources for strikes against Iran. The air bridge is operating at nearly the same intensity as it was before the start of Operation "Epic Fury."

Prominent Iranian academic Seyed Marandi claims that Trump is definitely planning for a land invasion of some kind, which he has been allegedly planning with Gulf allies:

It all rests on whether Trump believes Iranian deterrence has been “pushed back far enough” inland, as he hinted at the very opening. Should his advisors inform him the area is safe and secure, he could make an attempt of some sort, but by all appearances it would take a long time of further bombing and degrading of Iranian assets to even approach such a point. 

Iran on the other hand continues to threaten the closure of Bab Al-Mandab as a final lever of escalation should the US proceed to bombing Iranian power plants and other key civilian infrastructure assets. 

As a parting video demonstrating US’s powerlessness in thwarting Iran in Hormuz, here is Rubio’s voice cracking as he histrionically goes full “Karen” while threatening to call the UN’s “HR” department on Iran:

What is the purpose of the UN? he asks, if the body refuses to act on Iran’s dominion over Hormuz. 

Well, let’s see, Marco: Hormuz was fully open before you began an unprovoked war of aggression on Iran. Now your own sitting president is not only both blowing up ships in the strait—just as Iran is doing—but, in mirror fashion, is even planning to begin charging tolls on transiting nations. 

Which violator should the UN prosecute? 


Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Monday, July 13, 2026

Opinion: YOU CAN BOMB A STRAIT SHUT. YOU CANNOT BOMB A STRAIT OPEN

YOU CAN BOMB A STRAIT SHUT. YOU CANNOT BOMB A STRAIT OPEN.

 



 

Lim Tean is the Secretary General of the People’s Alliance For Reform Singapore

Facts For Working People publishes this article for our readers interests and is not affiliated with the Alliance for Reform. Lim Tean on Substack FFWP Admin


***********


by Lim Tean 

 

Trump is being catastrophically advised by men who have never worked a single day in the commercial world. I spent more than three decades in shipping law. Let me tell you what his advisers cannot.

 

The Americans are bombing Iran again — coastal radars, air defences, minelaying capabilities — and telling the world they are doing it to “keep the Strait of Hormuz open.”

 

This is not merely wrong. It is legally and commercially illiterate. Let me explain why, on four grounds.

 

FIRST — THE MOU ITSELF, WHICH AMERICA IS DELIBERATELY FLOUTING.

Read Article 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum, which Trump himself signed. It provides that IRAN will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels. That IRAN will carry out the demining. That IRAN, in dialogue with Oman and the other littoral states, will define the future administration and maritime services of the Strait — “in line with the sovereign rights of the coastal states.”

 

Every operational obligation in Article 5 rests on Iran. Under this Article, it is Iran that decides how vessels traverse the Strait. And read that last phrase again: the sovereign rights of the COASTAL STATES. Iran is a coastal state of Hormuz. Oman is a coastal state of Hormuz. The United States is NOT. Washington signed a document that gives it no role whatsoever in the administration of the Strait — and Iran and Oman have already reached agreement on regulating traffic under Article 5, including the designated route past Qeshm Island.

 

So what has America done? It has unilaterally sponsored a rival “southern corridor” to bypass the Iranian routing altogether — a deliberate flouting of the very mechanism Article 5 establishes, and a direct repudiation of the document Trump’s own signature sits on. Iran’s Foreign Minister has formally accused Washington of violating the Memorandum. He is right.

 

And now watch the sleight of hand. CENTCOM and a chorus of Western governments have fallen back on the old refrain: Hormuz is “an international waterway,” they say, and Iran has no right to control it. Let me say this plainly: that argument is a RED HERRING. It is dead. Trump killed it with his own pen on 17 June.

 

You cannot sign an agreement committing the administration of the Strait to the coastal states — and then run back to the “international waterway” argument when the administration doesn’t go your way. Ask yourselves this: if Hormuz were simply an open international waterway requiring no administration by anyone, why does Article 5 exist at all? Why did America NEGOTIATE a clause defining who administers the Strait? You do not bargain over the administration of a waterway you claim nobody may administer. The moment Trump signed Article 5, the United States accepted that the Strait’s future would be settled by its coastal states — Iran and Oman — and signed itself out of the room. Whatever the “international waterway” argument may be worth in a law school seminar, it is no longer available to the United States. Washington is estopped by its own signature. Every diplomat and general now reciting this line is trying to confuse the world — and hoping you never read the document their President signed.

 

And it gets worse. The Americans are simultaneously bombing Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, and Iran’s coastal radars and mine-clearing capabilities — the very assets Iran requires to PERFORM Article 5. Every commercial lawyer knows this doctrine: you cannot demand performance of a contract while destroying the other party’s means of performing it. That is prevention of performance. The Americans are not enforcing the MOU. They are breaching it twice over — circumventing its mechanism and destroying its performance — and then blaming Iran for the consequences.

 

And what do America’s lackeys in the region and beyond say to all this? Nothing. They cheer. Not one of these client states has uttered a word about the plain terms of an agreement their patron signed barely a month ago. Meanwhile Israel, which always opposed the Memorandum, is straining at the leash — its Defence Minister openly declaring the army ready to resume bombing Iran “with even greater force,” while Iranian media report projectiles striking near Bushehr. The vultures are circling the corpse of a deal America itself killed.

 

SECOND — THE INSURANCE REALITY.

As I have been explaining for days now, wars at sea are not decided by admirals. They are decided by underwriters in London. War risk premiums, Joint War Committee listed areas, P&I cover — these are the invisible hands that open and close the world’s waterways. Every American strike sends premiums higher. No American strike has ever brought a premium down. The bombs are shutting the Strait more firmly with each sortie.

 

THIRD — THE SAFE PORT DOCTRINE.

Here is what Trump’s advisers plainly do not know. Under every charterparty, the charterer owes the shipowner a duty to nominate a SAFE port. The classic test, laid down in the case of The Eastern City nearly seventy years ago, is whether the vessel can reach the port, use it, and leave it without being exposed to dangers that good navigation and seamanship cannot avoid.

 

The House of Lords, then Britain’s highest judicial body, applied this to war in The Evia (No. 2) — Basrah, rendered unsafe by the outbreak of the Iran–Iraq war. I lived with these cases my entire professional life.

 

Today, with missiles and drones flying across the Gulf, EVERY port in the Persian Gulf is arguably an unsafe port. No charterer can lawfully order a vessel there. Every shipowner can refuse under the war risk clauses — CONWARTIME, VOYWAR — written into virtually every charterparty on earth. The lawyers will keep the Gulf closed long after the bombing stops.

 

FOURTH — THE MASTER’S OVERRIDING AUTHORITY.

And there is one final authority the Pentagon cannot bomb, sanction or overrule: the Master of the vessel.

 

Since time immemorial, the law of the sea has vested in the Master absolute discretion over the safety of his ship and his crew. If the Master judges a port unsafe, he may refuse to sail there — and NOBODY can compel him. Not the charterer. Not even the owners of the vessel. This ancient principle is now codified in SOLAS itself: neither owner nor charterer may prevent or restrict the Master from any decision necessary, in his professional judgement, for the safety of life at sea.

 

Think about what this means. Even if Washington declares the Strait “open,” even if owners are tempted by sky-high freight rates, thousands of individual ship Masters — men responsible for their crews’ lives — will simply say NO. And the law of every maritime nation on earth stands behind them.

 

THE VERDICT.

A strait is not reopened by CENTCOM. It is reopened by the Joint War Committee, the P&I clubs, the charterers’ lawyers, and the Masters on the bridge. None of them answer to Donald Trump.

 

And mark this prediction: if America continues down this road, the contagion will spread. The Red Sea will follow. Yanbu — Saudi Arabia’s great oil port — will itself come to be regarded as an unsafe port. Then the crisis will no longer be about one strait, but about the entire maritime architecture of the Middle East.

 

You can bomb a strait shut. You cannot bomb a strait open. Someone should tell the President before his advisers shut down world trade.