Ecommerce Market Analysis

Walmart Opens New Stores: You’re Not Allowed In. They look like stores. They stock popular products. But you can’t go inside. Walmart is piloting “dark stores” in Dallas and Bentonville—brick-and-mortar locations that fulfill only online orders. No customers. No carts. Just pickers, packers, and speed. This isn’t omnichannel. It’s reverse omnichannel—physical space built to serve digital demand. It’s working: Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce is now profitable, with Q1 sales up 21%. Deliveries under 3 hours grew 91% year-over-year. They expect to reach 95% of U.S. households within that timeframe. What’s driving this? * Tech-powered logistics (drones, AI, automation) * Streamlined assortments and faster turns * Customers willing to pay for speed What does this mean for brands? If you’re not easy to pick, ship, and deliver, you’re in the wrong place at the wrong time. * Visual merchandising becomes data merchandising. * Packaging becomes performance. * Shelf appeal becomes search appeal. This tactical shift is both a challenge and a call to evolve. The store of the future may not need shoppers. But it absolutely needs suppliers who understand the choreography of fulfillment. Would love to hear how others are preparing for a world where brick-and-mortar goes dark. #RetailStrategy #Ecommerce #Logistics #Walmart #DarkStores #RetailInnovation #ConsumerBehavior #RetailTransformation #LastMile Bloomberg Retail Dive Amazon Kohl's

🎯 The scariest notification isn't from your ad account. It's the one that starts with "Department of Revenue." Most DTC operators are laser-focused on the metrics that matter: CAC, LTV, conversion rates, and monthly recurring revenue. But there's one metric they're completely blind to: tax exposure. Here's what I see happening constantly: → Brands are selling in states where they should be registered, but aren't → Most discover this through penalty notices, not proactive planning → Finance teams are burning hours monthly on reactive compliance → The "surprise" tax bills can be devastating The silent killer isn't your acquisition costs or inventory management. It's the tax liability building up in states you didn't even know you were obligated to track. Kintsugi fixes this before it becomes a crisis: → Pulls all your sales + payment + shipping data into one dashboard → Tracks nexus thresholds across all 50 states in real-time → Files automatically so you never miss a deadline → Reconciles everything so your team isn't scrambling at month-end This isn't just tax software built by accountants for accountants. It's compliance infrastructure built by operators who understand ecommerce velocity. While your competitors are getting blindsided by tax notices, you'll be scaling with clean compliance from day one. The difference between reactive and proactive compliance? Usually significant costs and a lot of sleepless nights. Get started with Kintsugi >> https://lnkd.in/g-VRHzbS

Brands are growing online through digital subchannels. You may not be investing in the proper set of sub-channels. As a result of our latest research on a strategic engagement with a global FMCG client we've been working with, we observed that there is a strong digital channel diversification strategy at play for the snacking category. 📍The remarkable 149.6% growth in Nestle's eCommerce share from 2018-2023 demonstrates that ambitious targets (25% by 2025) can be achieved through strategic investments in infrastructure, including eCommerce academies for employees and specialized platforms for key growth markets. 💡Leading CPGs are pursuing multi-faceted digital approaches simultaneously, with Mondelēz Internationalēz focusing on marketplace dominance across diverse regions, PepsiCo pioneering direct-to-consumer channels and Nestlé also implementing both internal and external eB2B platforms to create an ecosystem approach to digital commerce. However, trailing FMCGs should monitor digital commerce leaders for capability building and execution. Our research also indicated that there is a significant digital commerce performance gap among CPG giants as well. L'Oréal and Nestlé have established a significant competitive advantage with eCommerce sales contributions of 27% and 18.5%, respectively, demonstrating that category leadership is increasingly determined by digital capability maturity rather than legacy market position. Unilever's No.6 overall revenue rank but relatively modest 14% eCommerce sales contribution indicates Magnum's spinoff presents a strategic opportunity to build focused digital capabilities that could outperform the parent company's approach. eCommerce dominance is approaching a tipping point. The projected shift from 35% eCommerce retail share in 2022 to 41% by 2027 represents a critical inflection point where digital commerce is transitioning from an alternative channel to the primary growth driver for CPG brands, demanding corresponding shifts in organizational structure and investment prioritization. With eCommerce growing at more than double the rate of brick-and-mortar (9% vs. 4% CAGR), spinoff moves and timing (Look at Mondelez from Kraft Heinz 10 years ago, Kellanova and Magnum Ice Cream Company recently) is strategically optimal to create a digital-first operation that can capture disproportionate growth as the global retail landscape approaches near-parity between online and offline channels. 𝗧𝗼 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 ecommert® 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗷𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟯,𝟵𝟬𝟬+ 𝗖𝗣𝗚, 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘁® : 𝗖𝗣𝗚 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿. #strategy #CPG #FMCG #ecommerce #AI Procter & Gamble Henkel SC Johnson Reckitt The Clorox Company Colgate-Palmolive Church & Dwight Co., Inc. The Coca-Cola Company Danone Ferrero Mars Kellogg Company Beiersdorf

Google just broke the funnel. And redefined how eCommerce will work. At I/O, they launched what might be the most important shift in digital commerce since mobile: Agentic Checkout. Powered by AI. Built into Search. You search for “running shoes.” Google compares options, tracks prices, applies offers — and checks out for you. No product page. No cart. No website visit. The old flow: Search → Website → Cart → Checkout The new one: Search → AI → Instant Purchase This isn’t just better UX. It’s the collapse of the entire funnel. The implications? • Your brand is no longer judged by your homepage — it’s judged by the algorithm. • Loyalty happens before the assistant decides. • Your advantage isn’t the interface — it’s the narrative behind your product. • Content must be structured for machines — not just humans. • And retention must start the moment discovery happens — not post-purchase. You’re not just running a storefront. You’re building influence — at the AI layer between intent and action. Commerce doesn’t live in tabs anymore. It lives in conversations with machines. Are we ready? #AICommerce #GoogleIO #AgenticCheckout #FutureOfRetail #D2C #eCommerceStrategy #DigitalTransformation #IntentOverInterface

In retail, many chase the next big thing—a new style, a new way to reach consumers—triggering a frantic race to adopt. But most trends fade as fast as they appear. The real game-changers are curated habits that prove they can stand the test of time. I’ve championed social commerce as the future of retail for over a decade. In hindsight, that barely scratches the surface. It’s now a deeply ingrained consumer behavior. The imperative isn’t just to adopt it, but to evolve with it—constantly and intentionally. At HSN, social commerce was core to our strategy. We pioneered the blend of shopping and entertainment. That’s the essence: finding the sweet spot where entertainment, connection, and commerce converge. Soon after, platforms like Twitch began enabling users to both game and shop in real time, blending entertainment with commerce. Fanatics has successfully leaned into this model as well, immersing fans in live experiences while showcasing gear in action, often worn by their favorite athletes and community, turning fandom into a powerful trust signal. More recently, TikTok Shop collapsed the purchase funnel into a single scroll. It's no longer discover, then buy. Now, it’s see it, want it, buy it—seamlessly, in-platform. So, as we look ahead, how do I see this "social commerce habit" evolving? Here's what I expect: 🔹 Creator Integration is Non-Negotiable. For Gen Z, in particular, TikTok Shop has become a primary discovery engine. They trust their favorite creators to genuinely try products and offer honest feedback. The more brands lean into authentic partnerships with creators, the more trust they build in this integrated shopping experience. It’s about relationship-driven commerce. 🔹 Embrace a Zero-Click World. Speed and simplicity are paramount. Consumers need to be able to see, buy, and receive as fast as humanly possible. This means minimal clicks, minimal friction, and no moments for reconsideration. It's about instant gratification and removing all barriers between desire and ownership. 🔹 Elevate Live Shopping. This is a powerful return to the personal connection and real-time interaction that defined the best of traditional retail. Shoppable videos and live sessions transform social media into a personalized shopping aisle. Imagine experts demonstrating products, showing how they fit or can be styled, all in real-time, tailored to your interests. It brings humanity back to digital retail. 🔹 Unlock the Power of Virtual Try-Ons. A longstanding hurdle in e-commerce is "try before you buy." AI-enabled virtual try-on features solves that, making online shopping more immersive and convenient. This translates directly into higher conversion rates, deeper engagement, and customers spending more valuable time interacting with your brand digitally. It’s time to stop treating social commerce like a trend. This is commerce, full stop. It’s a fundamental consumer behavior that belongs at the center of every modern retail strategy.

Welcome to the Summer of Scarcity. New data from Flexport shows a staggering 60% drop in ocean freight bookings from China over the last three weeks. That’s not just a supply chain blip—it’s a clear signal of growing uncertainty at the intersection of trade, tariffs, and demand. Call it what you will—tariff fatigue, inventory overhang, strategic paralysis—but the reality is that brands are hitting pause. As one exec put it: “Why pay 145% in duties when I’m still sitting on inventory?” And they’re not wrong. The looming threat of increased tariffs, particularly in the U.S., is freezing forward momentum. Brands are hedging bets, burning through what they have, and hoping policy will ease before Q4 hits. But here's the problem: waiting is not a strategy. Now more than ever, ecommerce and retail brands need: 1. Hyperlocal visibility into supply and shelf readiness 2. Scenario-based planning that balances duty impact with demand volatility 3. Targeted media spend that focuses on high margin, in-stock products The brands that come out on top in this environment won’t be the ones who waited. They’ll be the ones who saw the freight cliff coming and got scrappy—leaner, faster, and more operationally precise. Scarcity isn’t just about product. It’s about confidence. And in this market, confidence comes from clarity. #ecommerce #RetailMedia #DigitalShelf #CommerceIQ

Well, the day has arrived, and a seismic shift in global e-commerce just hit U.S. shoppers... Tariffs will now be applied to all e-commerce packages entering the U.S. Since 2016, when the de minimis threshold was raised to $800, ordering from abroad became easy and tariff-free - growing exponentially. Country of origin? Whatever. Expansion of de minimus played a major role in fueling the growth of direct-to-consumer off-shore e-commerce models. Shein and Temu may be the biggest examples - innovating their supply chain to exploit this even further - but everyone from European and North American brands to marketplace sellers on Amazon and Shopify DTC "brands" benefited by marketing goods to American consumers at sharp prices - with hundreds of 777's packed with nothing but cargo arriving in the U.S. everyday from China alone. That ended Friday. (*It ended in May for China-originating goods, but today ends for goods from everywhere.) 🚨 Now, every package shipped from overseas faces duties entering the U.S., adding 30–60% to prices for many goods. The impact? > International brands are halting U.S. sales or scrambling to move inventory U.S. stateside. > Carriers like FedEx & UPS must collect duties, often leaving U.S. consumers with surprise bills. > Consumers face higher costs, fewer choices, and frustration. The implications? Beyond the inflation and consumption implications (I will leave that to the economists), we are likely to see: Consolidation. Amazon, Walmart, and other large scale retailers and brands will benefit, while smaller brands and sellers leveraging de minimus loose. With their pricing power, supply chains, and U.S.-based logistics and fulfillment, the largest will capture even more share, able to shield customers from tariff shocks while raising prices. Marketplace models will take a hit, no longer fueled by cheap off shore goods. A renewed emphasis on "mid-market and above" in commerce and marketing tech. Smaller DTC brands and sellers will struggle, a key strategy eroded. As cross-border friction rises, more consumers will default to “safe, predictable” platforms that guarantee fast delivery and clear pricing without any nasty surprises. SMBs will be at a massive disadvantage, again. This will have implications for platforms and commerce tech catering to SMBs - many of whom had de minimus related strategies at their core. Like many, I called for rethinking of de minimis back in early 2024 as a way to stem the erosion of American retail and "fast-fashion, knock-off" brand erosion. It was out of hand. But the implications of this wholesale approach, eliminating de minimis for goods entering the U.S. from everywhere are significant and may well weigh on the economy in a host of ways - impacting the consumer and SMBs most especially. 

Every ecommerce leader I know is running on the same hamster wheel: growth targets keep rising, but the rules of the game are being rewritten under their feet. When you place a leader and later sit down with them to swap insights, you’re reminded why the right talent shapes entire industries. I had a great conversation with Julian Exposito-Bader (ex-Amazon, TAG Heuer) about what’s really shaping the future of ecommerce, and he boiled it down to four pillars every executive should have on their radar: 1. Tariffs & Supply Chain Disruption Tariffs are no longer background noise. They’ve reshaped global commerce. Chinese manufacturers are redirecting from the US into Europe, flooding marketplaces with B-brands and copycats. Leaders who win will be the ones who diversify sourcing, master customs optimization, and use bonded warehouses strategically. 2. Sustainability as a Competitive Advantage It’s no longer acceptable to send a small product in three layers of plastic. Lastmile innovation (bike couriers, drones, reusable packaging) is moving from “PR play” to “bottom-line differentiator.” Zalando is pushing hard here. Consumers are watching, and they notice who’s lagging behind. 3. AI-Powered Commerce Revolution Gen Z isn’t Googling “best running shoes”, they’re asking ChatGPT or Alexa. LLMs are the new storefront. The question is: do brands have a strategy to influence those models? Add in 10-minute delivery in Southeast Asia (coming soon to Europe) and AI-driven fraud vs. fraud detection… the entire purchase journey is being re-engineered. 4. Channel Strategy & ROI Focus Social commerce is expensive and messy, but TikTok Shop is where the next generation buys. DTC remains the highest margin, but demands world-class storytelling. Amazon gives you traffic, but only if you’re willing to pour money into ads. And let’s not forget the “lipstick effect”, beauty keeps outperforming even when wallets tighten. The takeaway? Ecommerce leaders aren’t just choosing a channel anymore, they’re orchestrating these four forces simultaneously. For me, it was also a reminder of why the right hire matters: leaders like Julian don’t just react to market shifts, they anticipate and shape them. I’m curious, in your markets, which of these four pillars is hitting hardest right now? #ecommerce #fmcg #trending

Everything that brands have built their Amazon strategy on is changing with AI & creators. For years, e-commerce has been built around search: you go to Amazon or Google, type in a need, and find the best match. That’s been the core of online shopping. But here’s where things are changing: products are now finding YOU. My wife recently bought an EMF harmony device—not because she searched for it, but because she saw someone talk about it on Instagram. It’s a perfect example of social commerce in action, where the product finds the customer instead of the other way around. This is the future. AI will change how search works, making it more conversational. Instead of typing “60-inch TV,” imagine asking for “the top 3 60-inch OLED TVs under $1,000 with the best reviews,” and AI instantly providing a tailored comparison. On the other hand, creators are influencing buying decisions more than ever, with social platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube becoming shopping hubs. Gen Z often starts their product research on TikTok, moves to Amazon or a DTC website, and sometimes even buys directly from TikTok Shop. The journey is social-first. This shift is also building trust. Instead of relying on anonymous reviews, you’re seeing creators—people you follow and trust—showing you the product in use, backed by real-life experiences. And as AI reshapes e-commerce, we’ll see search and shopping become smarter and more personalized.

A client came to us frustrated. They had thousands of website visitors per day, yet their sales were flat. No matter how much they spent on ads or SEO, the revenue just wasn’t growing. The problem? Traffic isn’t the goal - conversions are. After diving into their analytics, we found several hidden conversion killers: A complicated checkout process – Too many steps and unnecessary fields were causing visitors to abandon their carts. Lack of trust signals – Customer reviews missing on cart page, unclear shipping and return policies, and missing security badges made potential buyers hesitate. Slow site speeds – A few-second delay was enough to make mobile users bounce before even seeing a product page. Weak calls to action – Generic "Buy Now" buttons weren’t compelling enough to drive action. Instead of just driving more traffic, we optimized their Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) strategy: ✔ Simplified the checkout process - fewer clicks, faster transactions. ✔ Improved customer testimonials and trust badges for credibility. ✔ Improved page load speeds, cutting bounce rates by 30%. ✔ Revamped CTAs with urgency and clear value propositions. The result? A 28% increase in sales - without spending a dollar more on traffic. More visitors don’t mean more revenue. Better user experience and conversion-focused strategies do. Does your ecommerce site have a traffic problem - or a conversion problem? #EcommerceGrowth #CRO #DigitalMarketing #ConversionOptimization #WebsiteOptimization #AbsoluteWeb