Population Size

and Growth
 7

Population Size and Growth

World Population
Approaches 6 Billion From the ICPD Program of Action:
as Nations Seek “The growth of the world population is at an all-time high in absolute
Population-Development numbers, with current increments approaching 90 million persons
Balance annually ...

The 1994 International Conference on “While it had taken 123 years for world population to increase from
Population and Development (ICPD) 1 billion to 2 billion, succeeding increments of 1 billion took 33 years,
in Cairo focused the world’s attention 14 years and 13 years. The transition from the fifth to the sixth billion,
on the challenge facing all nations as currently under way, is expected to take only 11 years and to be com-
they seek to integrate population and
pleted by 1998.” (section 6.1)
development policies and programs.

For the past 25 years, the gap

between birth rates and death rates Figure 1.
worldwide — the world’s rate of natu- World Population and Average Annual Population (left scale)
ral increase — has been continually, Rates of Growth, by Development Less Developed
More Developed
albeit slowly, shrinking. Reaching an Category: 1950 to 2020
Growth rate (right scale)
historical peak of about 2.2 percent
per year from 1962 to 1964, global Billions Percent
8 3.2
population growth fell to about 1.5
percent during the first half of the
present decade and is expected to
7 2.8
drop below 1 percent per annum
Less Developed
during the first quarter of the next
century (figure 1 and table A-2). This 6 2.4
slowing of the pace of world popula-
tion increase should facilitate the World
achievement of many of the objec- 5 2.0
tives set out in the Cairo Program
of Action.
4 1.6
However, while the rate of world pop- More Developed
ulation increase continues to fall, the
3 1.2
numbers of men, women and children
are expected to continue to grow well
into the next century. According to 2 0.8
the latest projections of the Bureau of
the Census, world population will
increase from its present level of 1 0.4
about 5.8 billion persons to almost
6.1 billion by the year 2000. These
projections, summarized in table A-1, 0 0.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
indicate that world population will grow
by an additional 1.5 billion persons
during the first two decades of the Note: Rates of growth are average rates for 5-year periods, 1950-55 through 2015-2020.
Source: Table A-1 and U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base.
next century, reaching a level of
7.6 billion persons by the year 2020.
 8

Average Annual Increase in World Population

(Millions)
Years World Less Developed Countries More Developed Countries

1985-1990 85.4 79.3 6.1

1990-1996 81.8 77.0 4.8
1996-2000 79.8 75.4 4.4
2000-2005 77.8 73.3 4.5
2005-2020 74.6 72.1 2.5

Note: Data for this table and all subsequent text tables are from U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base, unless otherwise indicated.

Developing Regions expected to increase only modestly, to Future Population Increases

Generate Nearly All of 1.25 billion, by the year 2020. Will Be Concentrated in Asia,
Population Growth but Sub-Saharan Africa’s
In 1996, 95 out of every 100 persons Share Is Growing
Most of world population growth takes added to world population live in less
place in the developing countries of developed countries. The pace of population growth varies
Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The from region to region, determined in
combined population of less devel- part by current regional population
oped countries grew from 1.7 billion Declining population growth rates in totals and in part by differentials in
persons in 1950 to 4.6 billion in 1996. both groups of countries reflect declin- regional growth rates. Asia continues
This figure is expected to reach 6.4 ing annual increments in population to dominate other world regions in
billion by the year 2020. In contrast, size. The decreases are less pro- terms of the absolute number of per-
the combined population of the more nounced in the developing countries, sons added each year, because its
developed countries of the world in- however, because moderately declin- 1996 population, even without China,
creased from 800 million persons in ing rates are applied to still rapidly is much larger than that of any other
1950 to 1.17 billion in 1996 and is growing base populations. region (figure 2). Other Asia will

Figure 2.
Population of World Regions: 1970, 1996, and 2020 1970
1996
2020
Billions
3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa Near East and China (Mainland Other Asia Latin America and Eastern Europe Rest of the World
North Africa and Taiwan) the Caribbean and the New
Independent States

Source: Table A-1 and U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base.
 9

contribute 132 million persons to Among world regions, the largest The share represented by more de-
world population increase between proportionate increases in share of veloped countries has declined from
now and the year 2000; China, anoth- world population will continue to be 27 percent of the world total in 1970
er 44 million persons. The rest of the in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is to 20 percent in 1996. If present
developing world will, together, add expected to grow from fewer than trends continue, more developed
another 126 million persons during 600 million persons in 1996 to just countries will comprise only 16 per-
the next 4 years, and more developed over 1 billion in the year 2020. cent of world population 25 years
countries will contribute about 18 Between 1996 and 2020, China from now.
million persons. and the rest of Asia will remain
the two largest regions, although
China’s share will fall.

Share of World Population

(Percent)
Region 1970 1996 2020
Less Developed Countries 72.9 79.7 83.6
More Developed Countries 27.1 20.3 16.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 7.8 10.3 13.5
Near East and North Africa 3.9 5.1 6.4
China (Mainland and Taiwan) 22.5 21.3 18.9
Other Asia 29.7 33.2 35.0
Latin America and the Caribbean 7.7 8.5 8.5
Eastern Europe and New Independent States 9.5 7.2 5.8
Rest of the World 18.9 14.5 12.0

Note: Other Asia excludes China and Japan. Rest of the World includes Western Europe, North America, Japan, and Oceania.
 10

Africa’s Growth Rates Will Growth rates for Latin America and The average growth rate for all Asia
Remain Highest Among the Caribbean were the highest turned downward next, peaking during
World Regions for the among the different regions in the the 1960’s before declining to a level
1950’s and 1960’s but were also the of about 1.5 percent in the early
Next 25 Years
first to decline to their present regional 1990’s.
level of around 1.5 percent per an-
Declines in population growth rates Growth rates for Sub-Saharan Africa
num. During the late 1960’s and early
are projected for 5 of 6 major world and for the Near East and North
1970’s, rates for Africa, Other Asia,
regions during the remainder of the Africa continued to rise throughout the
and Latin America were clustered
1990’s, and for all major regions from 1960’s and 1970’s, largely because
relatively closely together, around
the turn of the century onward. How- birth rates remained relatively high in
2.5 percent per year, but this histori-
ever, future trends, like past trends, many countries in these regions while
cal juxtaposition was temporary. Birth
vary markedly from region to region death rates declined. Sub-Saharan
rates, and population growth rates, for
(figure 3). Sub-Saharan Africa has Africa’s history of population growth
Latin America and the Caribbean fell
emerged as the region with the high- during the 1980’s differs from that of
steadily throughout the decades of the
est projected population growth rates North Africa and the Near East, how-
1960’s, 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s, and re-
during the coming 25-year period. ever, not only in the fact that birth
main lower, on average, than those of
Growth rates, just over 2.5 percent rates, and hence growth rates, have
other developing regions.
per annum since the mid-80’s, are
expected to remain above 2 percent
through 2020 in spite of rising mortal- Figure 3.
ity in some countries due to the HIV/ Average Annual Rates of Population Growth
of World Regions: 1950 to 2020
AIDS epidemic.
Percent
The developing regions of Sub- 3.5
Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Near East and
Caribbean, the Near East and North Latin America and
North Africa
Africa, and Asia (excluding China and 3.0
the Caribbean
Japan) show post-World War II trends Sub-Saharan Africa
in population growth consistent with
2.5
the demographic transition from high
birth and death rates to relatively low
vital rates. In each of these major 2.0
regions, growth rates first rose as Other Asia
mortality fell in response to initiatives
in public health, infectious disease 1.5
control, and the introduction of new
drugs. After a lag varying in length
China
from region to region, crude birth 1.0
rates began to fall in response to
delayed marriage, changing family Rest of the World
0.5
size preferences and greater availabil-
ity of family planning services in many Eastern Europe and the New Independent States
countries.
0.0
1950-55 1960-65 1970-75 1980-85 1990-95 2000-05 2010-15

Note: Rates of growth are average rates for 5-year periods, 1950-55 through 2015-20.
China includes Mainland China and Taiwan.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base.
 11

been higher than other regions since the evolving regional distribution of during the late 1960’s. Finally, de-
the mid-1980’s, but also by an inter- world population during the last de- clines in growth during the 1970’s and
ruption in mortality decline in a num- cade of this century and the first two since 1987 reflect enforcement of
ber of countries beginning in the early decades of the next. Twenty-two of government policies encouraging
1980’s. Crude death rates remained every 100 persons alive in 1950 lived higher age at first marriage and strict
relatively unchanged in 1 in 5 Sub- in Western Europe, North America, limits on childbearing.
Saharan African countries during the Japan, or Oceania. By 1996 this
mid- to late 1980’s, and mortality is fraction has fallen to 14 in 100; by the Growth rates in Eastern Europe and
actually rising, rather than falling, in year 2020 only 12 in 100 persons will the New Independent States have
some Sub-Saharan African countries be living in these areas. declined rapidly in the post-war peri-
affected by HIV/AIDS. This reduces od, finishing with a precipitous drop in
population growth in these countries The trends in growth in two regions the late 1980’s and early 1990’s (fig-
and acts as a brake on natural in- shown in figure 3 — China and the ure 3). This is partly the result of
crease at the regional level through region comprising Eastern Europe pronounced declines in fertility from
the early part of the next century. and the New Independent States — levels already below replacement
Population growth rates are expected are distinctly different from all the coupled with rising mortality in the
to fall in both regions, at least through others. China’s trend is a product of recent past in the majority of countries
the year 2020, as a result of ongoing the country’s unique post-war history in this region. The trends in fertility
and projected declines in birth rates of social change, population-food and mortality observed in the early
and the evolving trends in mortality in supply balance, and official restrictions 1990’s reflect the social uncertainties
these regions. on marriage and childbearing. The and related economic hardships of the
relatively low growth rate during the period. In addition, the age structures
Population growth in the Rest of the early 1950’s reflects the relatively high of Russia and her neighbors currently
World has also slowed since 1950, mortality prevalent in China in the feature a trough in the size of cohorts
but the decline has been from initial immediate post-war period. The dip in the reproductive ages, which also
levels markedly lower than those of in growth during the late 1950’s and suppresses the numbers of births and
Asia, Africa, and Latin America to a the rise in growth during the early makes present growth rates unusually
composite regional value well below 1960’s show the impact of, and recov- low. Fertility is expected to recover
1 percent per annum today. ery from, the “Great Leap Forward” from its current levels, however, and
famine of 1958-61. Continued decline larger reproductive age cohorts will
The continuing disparity in growth in death rates during the Cultural replace today’s smaller cohorts, lead-
rates between Africa, Asia, and Latin Revolution and, more importantly, ing to some resurgence in population
America on the one hand, and Eu- resumed childbearing following the growth rates in this region during the
rope, North America, Japan, and famine years account for China’s peak next decade (U.S. Bureau of the Cen-
Oceania on the other, accounts for growth rate of 2.7 percent per annum sus 1996a).
 12

Between Now and the Figure 4.

Year 2000, World Population Population Added From 1996 to 2000
Will Increase by Over Total added: 319 million

300 Million Persons Rest of Asia (22.6%)

72.1 million
In spite of the fact that population Remaining World (2.3%)
7.4 million
growth is slowing in every world re- Eastern Europe and the New
gion, the number of people living in Independent States (0.8%)
2.4 million
the world continues to increase, and
United States (3.2%)
will do so as long as the world’s 10.1 million
growth rate is greater than zero.
During the next 4 years, 319 mil-
lion persons will be added to world
population. As figure 4 shows,
61 million persons, or 19 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa (20.2%)
64.5 million
this increase will occur in India; about
14 percent, in China; and 20 percent
in Sub-Saharan Africa. More devel-
oped countries, including the United
States, will account for only 6 percent Near East and
North Africa (9.1%)
of world population increase from 29.0 million
midyear 1996 to midyear 2000.
Latin America and
the Caribbean (8.9%)
28.6 million
Fifty-one Percent of World
China (13.8%)
Population Lives in 44.2 million
Six Countries... India (19.1%)
60.8 million
Of the 5.8 billion people alive in 1996,
Note: Percentages are of population added from 1996 to 2000. China includes
almost 3 billion live in China, India, Mainland China and Taiwan.
the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Source: Table A-4.
and Russia (figure 5). The other
2.8 billion live in one of the remaining
221 countries. The United States,
with just over 266 million people, ac-
counts for less than 5 percent of
world population.
 13

Figure 5.
Distribution of World Population: 1996 and 2020

1996
28.2% in 206 countries each
having less than 1% of total
world population
France
United Kingdom
Thailand
Turkey
Egypt
Iran
Vietnam
Philippines
Russia 2.6% Germany
Brazil 2.8% Mexico

Indonesia 3.6% Nigeria

Bangladesh
United States 4.6%
Japan

India 16.5% Pakistan

20.4% in 14 countries each

having more than 1% of
China 21.3% total world population

51.4% in 6 largest countries

2020
30.5% in 207 countries each
having less than 1% of total
world population

Turkey
Germany
Zaire
Egypt
Brazil 2.6%
Vietnam
Pakistan 2.6% Ethiopia
Nigeria 2.7% Iran
Philippines
Indonesia 3.6%
Japan
Mexico
United States 4.3%
Russia

Bangladesh
India 17.0%
17.9% in 12 countries each
having more than 1% of
total world population
China 18.9%
51.7% in 7 largest countries

Note: China includes Mainland China and Taiwan. Percentages do not add to 100 because of rounding.
Source: Table A-4.
 14

...but Shares and Ranks Will During the coming 25 years, country Figure 6 shows trends in growth rates
Change in the Next 25 Years rankings among the most populous and population size for countries that
nations will change as high-fertility, will play a dominant role in world or
high-growth countries overtake pres- regional population change during the
By the year 2020, the shares of total
ently larger, but more slowly growing coming quarter century. In addition, it
world population living in the countries illustrates the effects of temporary
having the largest populations will nations. Perhaps the most dramatic
changes in national policy or natural
shift. For example, during the next 25 example of this is Nigeria, which is
disaster that sometimes interrupt
years more people will be added to expected to bypass Bangladesh, demographic trends. China’s unique
India’s population than to China’s — Japan, Pakistan, Russia, and Brazil post-World War II demographic history
about 337 million and 207 million, in size by the year 2020 (figure 5). has already been mentioned. Another
respectively. If present trends contin- Other notable shifts include Pakistan example: The 1983 deportation of
ue, India’s population will approach and Bangladesh. By 2020, Pakistan illegal aliens from Nigeria is responsi-
China’s by year 2020 and will surpass will have a larger population than ble for the sharp discontinuity in
China’s by the year 2040. Brazil or Russia, and Bangladesh’s growth rates for this country evident
population will exceed that of Russia. in figure 6.

Figure 6.
Population and Average Annual Rate of Growth, for Most
Populous Countries: 1950 to 2020 Population (left scale)
Growth rate (right scale)
China (Mainland and Taiwan) United States
Millions Percent Millions Percent
1600 3.2 1600 3.2
1400 2.8 1400 2.8
1200 2.4 1200 2.4
1000 2.0 1000 2.0
800 1.6 800 1.6
600 1.2 600 1.2
400 0.8 400 0.8
200 0.4 200 0.4
0 0
0.0 0 0.0
0
–200 –0.4 –200 –0.4
1950 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20 1950 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20

India Indonesia
Millions Percent Millions Percent
1600 3.2 1600 3.2
1400 2.8 1400 2.8
1200 2.4 1200 2.4
1000 2.0 1000 2.0
800 1.6 800 1.6
600 1.2 600 1.2
400 0.8 400 0.8
200 0.4 200 0.4
0 0.0
0 0 0.0
0
–200 –0.4 –200 –0.4
1950 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20 1950 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20
 15

Figure 6.
Population and Average Annual Rate of Growth, for Most
Populous Countries: 1950 to 2020—Continued Population (left scale)
Growth rate (right scale)
Brazil Russia
Millions Percent Millions Percent
1600 3.2 1600 3.2
1400 2.8 1400 2.8
1200 2.4 1200 2.4
1000 2.0 1000 2.0
800 1.6 800 1.6
600 1.2 600 1.2
400 0.8 400 0.8
200 0.4 200 0.4
0 0
0.0 0 0
0.0
–200 –0.4 –200 –0.4
1950 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20 1950 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20

Nigeria
Millions Percent
1600 3.2
1400 2.8
1200 2.4
1000 2.0
800 1.6
600 1.2
400 0.8
200 0.4
0 0.0
0
–200 –0.4
1950 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20

Note: Rates of growth are average rates for 5-year periods, 1950-55 through 2015-2020.
Source: Table A-4 and U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base.