Transportation Planning and
Modelling
MUHAMMAD ZUDHY IRAWAN
zudhyirawan.staff.ugm.ac.id
Transportation Planning and
Modelling
INTRODUCTION – 1ST MEETING
References
• Willumsen and Ortuzar Transport Modeling
• N. Oppenheim Urban Travel Demand
Modeling: From Individual Choices to General
Equilibrium
• Y. Sheffi Urban Transportation Networks:
Equilibrium Analysis With Mathematical
Programming Methods
Course Expectations
• Homework
• Quizzes
• Projects
• Visual basic for applications (VBA)
• TFTP
• ZIN
Comprehensive Transportation
Planning Dimensions
• Economic
• Social
• Environmental
Systematic Evaluation for
Sustainability
• Can we always count on data being there?
• If we don’t have data then what can be
done?
Indicators
T Goal
Objectives of Travel Demand
Model
• Reduction in or modification of travel
behavior
• Reduction of environmental damages
• Increased land use efficiency
• Enhanced travel safety
Why Use Travel Demand Models
• A relationship between transport system
and indicators
– Access
TRAVEL
– Purpose Land use
DEMAND
Travel behavior MODEL
– Frequency
– Use
T System performance
Economic, Social, and
Environmental Dimensions
• Where do they come in to this process?
TRAVEL
DEMAND
MODEL
Evaluate
System performance Indicators progress to
goal
Other data
…through performance indicators
• For example:
– Commute speed
– Land use mix
Residential Employment
– Transport diversity
– Transport equity ResidentialEmployment
Service
Service
Example
• Model output = travel times between all points
• Indicator: Commute speed
• Indicator: Land use mix
• Indicator: Transport diversity
• Indicator: Equity
Transport Planning and
Modelling
• Transport modelling is not transport
planning
• It can only support planning, and in a few
cases it may have the most important role
in the process.
• In truth, planning and implementation have
the power to change the world and
transport modelling can only assist in this
if adopted as an effective aid to decision
making.
• A model is a simplified representation of a
part of the real world–the system of
interest–which focuses on certain
elements considered important from a
particular point of view
Aggregate and Disaggregate
Modelling
• Aggregate models were used almost
without exception in transportation
studies up to the late 1970s. they
became familiar, demanded relatively
few skills on the part of the analyst.
• However, aggregate models have been
severely (and sometimes justifiably)
criticised for their inflexibility, inaccuracy
and cost.
• Disaggregate models, which became
increasingly popular during the 1980s,
offer substantial advantages over the
traditional methods while remaining
practical in many application studies.
• However, one important problem in
practice is that they demand from the
analyst quite a high level of statistical and
econometric skills for their use (in
particular for the interpretation of results)
Cross-section and Time Series
• Cross section : several variable at the
same point in time
• Time series : several variable over a
period of time
Revealed and Stated
Preferences
• Up to the mid-1980s it was almost
axiomatic that modelling transport demand
should be based on information about
observed choices and decisions, i.e.
revealed-preference data.
• Within this approach, project evaluation
requires expressing policies in terms of
changes in attributes which ‘map onto’
those considered to influence current
behavior
• Stated-preference/intentions
techniques, borrowed from the field of
market research, offering a way of
experimenting with transport-related
choices
• Stated-preference techniques base
demand estimates on an analysis of the
response to hypothetical choices; these,
of course, can cover a wider range of
attributes and conditions than the real
system.
Model Calibration, Validation
and Use
Introduction to Travel Demand
Modeling
• What is a travel demand model
• Assignment: Discuss your knowledge
– Input data
– Trip generation
Land use TRAVEL
– Trip distribution DEMAND
– Mode choice Travel behavior MODEL
– Traffic/trip assignment
T System performance
Four Step Travel Demand Model
(FSTDM)
Demographic Step 1: Trip
Data Generation
Transportation Step 2: Trip
Network Distribution
Step 3: Mode
Choice
Step 4: Trip/ Traffic
Assignment
Trip Generation Questions
• How much do people use the transport
system?
• Why do people use the transport system?
• Where can different types of activities be
satisfied?
Trip Distribution Questions
• Given a location, where do people go to
satisfy demand for an activity type?
Mode choice Questions
• How do people use the transport system?
– What modes do they choose?
– How do they react to varying transport service
quality?
Trip / Traffic Assignment Questions
• How do people use the transport system?
– Given a mode, which route do they choose?
– Do they satisfy multiple activities in one tour?
– Which parts of the transport system do they
use?
– How do they react to varying transport
service quality?
Demographic Data
• Autos per household
• Income level
• Household size
Network Data
• Highway network
• Transit network
• Graph
Representing a Network
