BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF TEXTILES
Assignment
On
Fashion Forecasting and Diversity of fashion cycle.
Course Title: Special Apparel Production.
Course code:AE 411
Submitted To : Submitted By :
Upama Nasrin Haq Promit Sarkar
Lecturer ID:2016-1-4-042
Dept. of Apparel L:4, T:2
Engineering
Bangladesh University
of Textiles (BUTEX)
Date of submission: 15 / 12 / 2019
Fashion forecasting:
Fashion forecasting means focusing on upcoming trends such as
prediction of the colors, fabrics, textures, materials, prints, graphics,
beauty, accessories, footwear, street style, and other styles that will be
presented on the runway and in the stores for the upcoming seasons. The
concept applies to not one, but all levels of the fashion industry
including haute couture, ready-to-wear, mass market, and street wear.
The Fashion Forecasting Process:
a) Trend forecasting businesses
b) Consumer research
c) Colour Forecasting
d) Textile Development
e) The Range of shows
f) Sales Forecasting
g) Cultural Indicators
h) Final Stage of fore casting
7 Steps in Developing a Forecast:
1. Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts.
2. Determine the causes of change in the past.
3. Determine the difference between past forecasts and actual
behaviors.
4. Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future.
5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques while paying attention to
issues of accuracy and reliability.
6. Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant
deviations from expectations.
7. Revise the forecast when necessary
Importance of Fashion forecasting:
1. Accurate forecasting makes it possible for the fashion industry
segments to prepare for and meet consumer demand with products that
will be accepted and purchased.
2. Keen worldwide competition increases the importance of accurate
trend
identification.
Two types of forecasting are:
Long term forecasting:
1.Long-term forecasting is the process of analyzing and
evaluating trends that can be identified by scanning a variety of
sources for information.
2. It is a fashion which lasts over two years.
3.When scanning the market and the consumers, fashion
forecasters must follow demographics of certain areas, both
urban
and suburban, as well as examine the impact on retail and its
consumers due to the economy, political system, environment,
and culture.
Short term forecasting:
Short-term forecasting focuses on current events both domestically
and internationally as well as pop culture in order to identify possible
trends that can be communicated to the customer through the seasonal
color palette, fabric, and silhouette stories.
It gives fashion a modern twist to a classic look that intrigues our
eyes.
Some important areas to follow when scanning the environment are:
current events, art, sports, science and technology.
Short-term forecasting can also be considered fad forecasting.
According to length, Fashion Cycle is diversified into:
• Flop Cycle- No acceptance
• Fad Cycle- Short acceptance
• Normal Cycle- Medium acceptance
• Classic Cycle- Continuing acceptance
Fad:
Temporary, passing fashion. Great appeal for a short amount of time.
Fads are the one hit wonders of the fashion world. They come and go as
quickly as a summer rain. A fad may be “huge” for one season, but often
lasts about a year. Fads tend to have a very limited appeal, and are first
adopted by the the JrHi-Uni age crowd. Fads often start with street style;
some fads are regional. There may be a fad for your city, or region of the
country. If the fad has a broader geographical sweep, you will find it in
the fast fashion outlets. If the fad survives and grows to be found more
broadly in retailers catering to a wider age demographic, it has matured
into a trend.
Trends:
Trends are the fads that have grown past the teenage/university student
age market. They have a much broader appeal, and have often been
adapted for an older demographic. (The first skinny jeans were a fad
only the very young and thin could wear, but retailers soon adapted the
cuts, and silhouettes. Originally, there were no “curvy skinny” jeans!)
Trends stay around for about 2-5 years. When the rest of the market
adopts the trend, it loses its cachet with the young and they move onto
the next fad/possible trend.
Classics:
Classics are pieces that have stood the test of time, they neither come
nor go, but are found year after year. Classics form the basis of many
wardrobes; many people think of them as boring, but classics can be a
great foundation on which to build. Classics vary over decades; the blue
blazer of the 1980’s will not fit anything like the blue blazer of 2017, but
it is still recognizable as a blue blazer. Dress trousers are an easy item in
which to see the shift in silhouette. Take a peek on the racks at
Goodwill, and you will see a “classic” black dress trouser of multiple
silhouettes.
Time decides the fate of all fads, some even endure long enough to
Fashion cycle length
Number of
Adopters
Normal Classic
FAD
Time
become classics… Jeans, Statement Necklaces, and Breton Shirts are
just a few.
