Anatomy of

a Trend
A WGSN Mindset white paper

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 wgsn.com

Anatomy of
a Trend
Trends are all around us. We see them in what we eat, where we live By Carla Buzasi
and how we connect with each other. And whether we’re aware of it or Global Chief Content Officer,
WGSN and WGSN Mindset
not, they dictate the products we want and the services we crave.
With
Smart phones. Co-working spaces. Green juice. We know the trends Lisa White, Head of The Vision, WGSN
that define our daily lives. Yet what we often fail to notice is the Kim Mannino, Senior Consultant, WGSN
interconnections. Co-working spaces emerged to fill the new needs of Emily Spiegel, Head of Content Marketing, WGSN
a “creative class”, while holding a green juice became a status item in
a world where wellness carries more social cachet than wealth.

Mega trends last for years, or decades. By identifying trends before

they reach critical mass, companies can tap into unlimited potential
growth. To do so, they must connect the dots between influences
to identify macro trends, filter them into their own brand DNA, and
innovate at the right time for their customer.

Succeeding at forecasting can quite simply make or break the largest

companies of our time. Look at the classic example of Amazon. In
less than two decades, Amazon grew from a small start-up trying to
convince consumers to trust the internet, to one of the world’s largest
companies. From their roots in e-commerce to the launch of the
Kindle, and their current investment in artificial intelligence, they have
boldly invested in trends, even when a short-term view suggested
they were putting their company at risk.

So how do you forecast a trend? It’s part art, part science, part math
and part magic. Over the past 18 years, we at WGSN have honed a
process to discern macro trends and adapt them for our clients. In this
white paper, we will explore how WGSN forecasts trends and look at
two of the largest movements of our time – Artisan and Wellness – to
illustrate what signals businesses should be looking towards to stay on
the right side of movements.

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Building the
Anatomy
How do we predict trends? At WGSN, we combine We look at diverse sources of inspiration to identify trends.
intuition, experience and hard data to separate From geopolitics to local subcultures, avant-garde artists to
micro trends from macro trends and make concrete Instagram influencers, bio-technology to demographic shifts.
recommendations for our clients.
We also have eyes and ears to the ground everywhere.
“A micro trend starts with your early influencers and Each year, our team of 250 forecasters visit over 137 trade
moves to mass adoption within one to two years,” says shows covering topics from material innovations to beauty
Kim Mannino, a senior trend consultant for WGSN. ”These packaging and pet wellness. We shoot the most avant-
trends are important for fashion companies, but tend to be garde styles and stores in 95 countries, and connect the
smaller scale realisations of the desires underlying macro styles to major themes discussed in conferences from
trends,” she adds. Dubai to Sao Paulo. We also read over 800 blogs daily and
visit festivals all around the world each year.
A macro trend, by contrast, spans at least five years and
impacts a variety of industries from technology to finance. From there, we discern the macro trends from local
Examples of macro trends include the maker movement patterns. Our global team works across 14 offices,
and the wellness boom, explored later in this paper. including London, New York, Los Angeles, Hong Kong,
Shanghai, Sao Paulo, Melbourne and Cape Town. Twice a
Macro trends operate on a continuum and evolve from year, our team of experts comes together and shares its
season to season, year to year. Each year, WGSN publishes local observations: what’s happening in their geographical
two forecasts that explore these macro trends, which we region as well as in their industry of expertise. “When
call “The Vision”. we see the same topics being explored by a subculture
in Nigeria as an artist in Sante Fe, we have a pretty good
As Lisa White, Head of The Vision, explains: “We don’t signal that we’re looking at a macro trend, rather than a
create trends. They are all around us. I always say that fad,” says Lisa White.
the past and future are present – you just need to pick
up the signals and analyse them. One of the things we To be sure, however, we validate our instincts using
do is separate isolated patterns from underlying cultural quantitative data. We dive into WGSN’s archive of retail
movements. data, brand perception metrics, and historical archive.
Once confirmed, we combine our research and data into a
“Each season, we look at these cultural movements and story, a macro trend, to inform our clients.
press pause. We see how they’ve evolved in the past six
months and how they’re likely to move in the years ahead. We’ll now look at two of the macro trends we’ve explored
In doing so, we equip our clients with the entire context of in our Vision trends over the past five years – the artisan
consumer behaviour, allowing them to proactively change and the wellness movements.
before their consumer knows what they want, rather than
react to their demands,” she adds.

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The Anatomy
in Practice:
Artisan
From embroidered denim jackets to hand-woven baskets, slow food
to modern allotments – artisan looks, products and experiences
dominate today’s marketplace. The trend is epitomised by a revived
interest in craftsmanship, the elevation of everyday objects and the
importance of gathering communities “IRL” (in real life).

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 Context
Of the many forces behind the transition,
three key influences in the early 2010s
helped shape the artisan movement:

— Mass manufacturing backlash. As the general public

gained greater visibility into the working conditions and
environmental consequences of fast fashion, triggered
by events such as the Rana Plaza building collapse in
Bangladesh, individuals searched for ways to reduce the
ecological and human impact of their consumption.

— The Great Financial Crisis. In the wake of the global

financial crisis of 2008, companies like Etsy helped millennial
crafters looking for alternative work turn their hobbies into
businesses. From its launch in 2005, Etsy had grown into a
billion-dollar business by 2013, enabling young millennials
the opportunity to become professional crafters on a global
scale1.

— Dying out of craft. As consumers began to value

craftsmanship as an antidote to the digital world, artisans
were quite literally disappearing. As one of hundreds of
examples, by 2010, Nottingham’s once bustling lace making
industry (which at its peak employed over 40,000 people)
had been reduced to a single factory2. Suddenly, there was
a renewed interest in young millennials to preserve the
knowledge and objects of the past and connect with other
like-minded individuals.

1
“Artisanal Capitalism: The Art and Craft of Business” January 4, 2014, The Economist
2
“Life in the Last Lace Factory” by This is Nottingham, January 11, 2010, Nottingham Post
 Products
While we first started to talk about artisan-
related micro trends in 2007, by 2014 the
movement had reached critical mass. In
that same year, we coalesced the various
fractions of the movement into an “artisan”
macro trend. Today, we see it in products
from apparel to technology, and even food
and beverage.
In the fashion world, two micro trends epitomise the artisan
movement: the brogue and embroidery. In 2014, WGSN predicted
that well-made and functional classics would become popular with
the mainstream consumer, of which the brogue played a starring role.
In 2014, we predicted embroidery, which references the culture of
custom repair, would emerge. Over the next two years, embroidered
items arriving at online retail increased in both the UK and the US by
69% and 78% respectively, according to data on WGSN Instock.

The move towards artisan can further be seen in the craft beer
movement and the shift towards more authentic experiences like
artisan gin and third wave coffee. Today, craft ale has become a
mainstay. According to the Brewers Association, the $22 billion craft
sector represents 22% of the $106 billion US beer market, up from
$8.8 billion just six years ago3.

At this year’s CES (Consumer Electronics Show), it was clear that the
artisan movement had infiltrated the tech space. Slick and minimalist
tech accessories gave way to a new, craft-inspired style reminiscent of
high-quality, handmade leather goods, offering nostalgic comfort in
the fast-paced forward-striving tech world.

3
“Brewing: Craft beer comes of age” by Scheherazade Daneshkhu and Lindsay Whipp,
October 26, 2016, The Financial Times
 Experiences
Against this backdrop, individual artisans worked hard to make sure
craft wasn’t entirely replaced by code. From Stitch ‘n Bitch, which offers
free knitting classes, to Makerversity, which offers affordable classes
and workshops, consumers took it upon themselves to ensure that arts
and crafts education continued to thrive around the world. While we
first reported on maker spaces in 2011, by 2015, 26% of cities in the US
boasted a maker space4.

This trend also impacted the restaurant industry, giving rise to

restaurants that emphasise sharing, communal eating and social
gatherings. Today, humbly styled restaurants with friendly service, local
produce and in-house events serve home-cooked, wholesome, natural
and uncomplicated food, with the likes of Concord Hill and Flinders
Lane in New York, Paté Paté in Copenhagen and Intro in Kuopio, Finland,
providing inspiration.

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4
“How the Maker Movement is Revitalizing Industries in American Cities” by Brooks Rainwater, March 8, 2016, Fast Company Tomorrow
What’s next Artisan:
As we look ahead to 2019, “making” is predicted
At a Glance
to eventually be adopted to solve critical
problems on a global scale. Early indications of Food and drink
this advancement include Bolivian cardiologist “Eat local”
Dr Franz Freudenthal, who developed the Nit- Slow food
Occlud – a handmade medical device that can Craft beer, artisanal gin
repair heart defects in children without the need and third wave coffee
for invasive surgery. The device was crafted in Pop-up restaurants
collaboration with knitters from the country’s Artisan cakes and cupcakes
Vegetarianism and veganism
indigenous Aymara community.
Apparel and footwear
Functional denim
Raw indigo fabric
Embroidery
Brogues
Raffia and woven leather

Interiors
House plants
Natural materials
Flax, linen, wood and leather
DIY

Packaging
Monochrome and
sepia-toned printing
Craft paper, card,
canvas and waxed paper
Calligraphy, hand-written
and off-kilter text
Woven ribbons
Engraving and
burnished branding

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 Artisan in Action
Etsy established

Emergence of upcycling

2008 The Great Financial Crisis

2010s
Demise of craft as a profession

DIY and craft maker ‘fad’ builds momentum

Mass manufacturing backlash

Rana Plaza disaster

WGSN 2014
WGSN predicts Artisan trend to reach
mass adoption by 2016

Trend in 2016-
Action 2017

What’s 2018 & Nit-Occlud: craft meets technology to

Next Beyond
solve the world’s most pressing problems

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 The Anatomy
in Practice:
Wellness
With green juice on every street corner and #fitspo
mnemonics dominating our feeds, it’s hard to believe that the
wellness movement is in its relative infancy. Yet, in the last few
years, the global wellness market has exploded to produce
what is today a $3.7tn industry5.

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5
The Global Wellness Institute, Press Room, Statistics & Facts, www.globalwellnessinstitute.org/press-room/statistics-and-facts Tomorrow
 Context
A number of underlying causes and influences
precipitated the market’s exponential growth:

— Crisis in global health systems. From concerns over the

obesity epidemic to urban gardens, governments have
become proactive in promoting healthy lifestyles. With global
interest in wellness changing the way we live, work and play,
we anticipated that brands had an opportunity to be part of
the dialogue, taking on a wellness initiative and showing the
fashionable and sexy side to being well.

— Millennial anti-hedonists. Long mocked for self-indulgence

and carefree lifestyles, in reality, when entering the workforce,
millennials rejected alcohol and drugs in favour of healthy
living, rewriting the rules about what makes a fulfilling social
life. According to a 2015 survey of millennials, around half
had changed their eating habits towards healthier foods,
compared to just 23% of those over age 556.

— Unrealistic ideals. Throughout the 2000s, women began

to reject marketing that perpetuated unrealistic body ideals.
Skeleton-thin role models fell out of fashion, eclipsed by
healthy bodies and lifestyles, while women began to respond
to portrayals that represented their ideal selves – not
unrealistic, unattainable Photoshopped images.

6
“Health Eating is Increasingly on Consumers’ agendas, with Millennials Leading the Way” Pricewaterhouse Coopers,
August 26, 2016, http://pwc.blogs.com/press_room/2016/08/healthy-eating-is-increasingly-on-consumers-agendas-with-
millennials-leading-the-way.html
 Products
It’s not hard to look for evidence of
wellness. But what’s interesting to look
at is the manifold ways wellness has
entered every industry.
From a fashion perspective, athletic looks began appearing on the
runway in collections including Céline’s A/W 2012 collection and Stella
McCartney’s S/S 2013 line which referenced her designs for Team
GB. Quickly, the idea of “athleisure” morphed into #alldayactive, with
activewear becoming an acceptable, even fashionable, way to dress.
Athletic-inspired looks, in fact, have registered record growth despite the
overall slowed growth of the apparel market – sports-inspired apparel
and footwear registered 10% and 6% growth in 2016 respectively,
compared to an overall 4% market growth7.

Wellness quickly became synonymous with wearables, with smart tech

helping complement a newly active lifestyle. The next wave in wearables
is set to take more of a holistic view of health and lifestyle, going beyond
step-tracking to help consumers feel happy, stimulated and at their best.

Perhaps the most extreme incarnation of wellness products is oriented

towards animals. The “natural” pet trend includes fitness plans and
products that replicate an animal’s natural environment, such as perches,
climbing towers and real cat trees. The trend also includes the rise of
non-synthetic and non-toxic materials for bedding, bowls and toys, which
are better for pet and planet.

7
“Sportswear Maintains Momentum” Sportswear International, Create
January 20, 2017, blog.euromonitor.com/2017/01/new-apparel-and-footwear-research-category-overview-sportswear-maintains-momentum.html Tomorrow
 Experiences
Wellness experiences are typified by
those that not only feel healthy, but create
environments to enjoy healthy behaviours
socially. Redemption, a non-alcoholic bar
in London, offers booze-free decadence,
as does Sober – a club night in Stockholm,
while yoga raves, meditation, SoulCycle
sessions and surfing are replacing the
conventional pub and club.
Still in its infancy, the wellness industry itself is consistently evolving to
include a more comprehensive understanding of wellness that includes
mental health. Products and services that help to lessen anxiety are
achieving popularity, with wearables and apps such as Spire and Pacifica
tackling stress with tech.

Wellness tourism has also taken off, with the influx of hotels featuring
rooms that have been holistically and technically designed for
optimum wellbeing and stress relief. Today, it is growing at a rate of
14%, compared to the overall industry’s 6% growth8. Swissôtel Zürich
and Wallpaper* magazine recently collaborated on the Vitality Room
concept. The minimalist room design includes built-in training modules
for gentle fitness, an air purification system, a mobile minibar stocked
with superfoods, and a circadian lighting control that helps to regulate
melatonin release from the brain. Meanwhile, big chains such as Hilton
have embraced the ideal, creating mini-gyms within standard rooms to
make exercise a fuss-free convenience.

8
“Global wellness tourism continues to grow” by Jeri Clausing, October 19, 2016, Travel Weekly,
www.travelweekly.com/Luxury-Travel/Insights/Global-wellness-tourism-continues-to-grow
 What’s next Wellness:
In the coming years, the wellness movement
At a Glance
will shift in two directions – all out reject, and
extreme adaptation. Interiors
Social media has made us more body-aware than ever, but as #fitspo and clean-
The Kondo effect
eating images fill our feeds, we’re starting to run lean on self-confidence, and Hygge
a backlash against seemingly unattainable lifestyles is emerging – an ironic full
circle considering the roots of the trend. Pinterest pins related to “anti-diet”
Clean living
jumped 42% in 2016 – a significant rise for the social community known for Circadian lighting
boards related to healthy meal prepping and exercise9.
Home spas
At the other extreme, science offers a way of optimising our wellness. Looking Immersive showers
deeper and analysing our bodies on a cellular and microbial level, this intense
optimisation is gaining momentum. DNAFit uses saliva swabs to create hyper-
personalised diets, while Habit delivers optimal food ingredients based on its Food
customers’ blood tests. Early research into microbial communities suggest Beauty drinks
they may hold the key to combatting depression, reducing anxiety and helping
with skin problems, while architects have started to look at bioactive design Natural energy products
strategies, incorporating bacteria into features to promote mental wellbeing and Turmeric benefits
reduce the risk of illness.
Free-from foods
Dairy alternatives
Juice cleanses
Raw food
Boxed food delivery

Lifestyles
Adult colouring books
Pet wellness
Beauty cafes
“Do Good” hotels
Wilderness wellness
Chroma yoga
Goat yoga

9
“The Anti-Diet is the Healthiest Diet You’ll Ever Be On” by Ashley Cooke, Pop Sugar Fitness, March 11, 2017
 Wellness in Action

2000s Body image ideals shift from

unrealistic to athletic

2008 The Global Financial Crisis triggers global

health systems crisis

WGSN starts talking about Athleisure

2010 Millennial Anti-Hedonist goes mainstream

2011 High fashion embraces the athletic look

WGSN 2012 WGSN predicts mass adoption of

wellness across industries

Athleisure becomes a mainstay

Trend in 2012-
Pet lifestyle trend emerges

Action
Wearables and mental health apps boom
2017 Wellness eclipses hedonism with the emergence
of sober clubbing, yoga raves and SoulCycle

Wellness-tourism emerges

What’s 2018 &

Anti-Wellness: consumers reject the wellness
movement with #anti-diet activities like beer
and pizza yoga

Next Beyond Optimisation: DNA customisation of wellness

regimes will go mainstream

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Conclusion
As seen through this white paper, regardless of what industry
you work in, leaders need to be closely observing the changing
behaviours, attitudes and beliefs of consumers. These changes are
revealed through trends. Trends are not fads. Fads come and go
fast and often don’t involve cultural shifts. Trends are slow-moving
shifts in cultural values. They reveal how we choose to live our
lives. They affect, but are not just about, the products we buy and
the experiences we seek. They are about how we choose to bring
meaning to our lives.

The examples of artisan and wellness reveal that leaders need to

look outside their core market to identify and capitalise on growth
opportunities. Macro trends like those outlined didn’t just change their
endemic markets, but created new categories and affected everything
from apparel to employment.

But identifying a trend is only the first step. The most important
question we ask at WGSN is: “Is this trend right for your brand, given
your DNA and target consumer?”

Timing is also an important factor to consider. Adopting a trend in

the right way at the right time is, in the best case scenario, an avenue
for growth. In the worst case scenario, it can cause the downfall of
your brand. Being first isn’t always necessarily being best, it largely
depends on your target market. If you’re targeting the early adopter,
being first is key. If mass market adoption is your goal, then riding the
crest of a trend could be right.

When embedding trend forecasting into business, innovation and

marketing, strategic planning is essential to not miss out on growth
and profit opportunities – and to avoid wasted investments in research
and development. Ultimately, it is the key to staying relevant and
shows how an entire industry can be transformed.

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About WGSN
Mindset
WGSN Mindset is the custom advisory
service from the world’s leading trend
authority. At WGSN Mindset, we work with
you to identify your next growth opportunity
by leveraging the combined expertise of our
trend team, our unrivalled insight on future
trends and our data warehouse.

Find out more about WGSN Mindset

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