Beef

World beef production is expected to increase about capita beef consumption may also rise in Central and
1.4 percent per year through 2007. China is expected Eastern Europe. However, growth will vary from
to lead the world in growth in beef demand, and country to country and will depend on the degree and
domestic production will likely expand to meet speed with which countries have liberalized their
demand. Increased incomes and initially low invento- economies. In Russia, only gradual increases in beef
ries in the FSU and Brazil will stimulate production. demand are expected because of the availability of
U.S. beef production is still recovering from the relatively cheaper pork and poultry. Per capita
impacts of the poor grain crop in 1995/96. As a result consumption in the United States is expected to
of herd liquidation and the relative length of the increase slightly in the early 2000s as a result of the
biological cycle, U.S. beef production will decline cattle cycle, but then decline as relative prices favor
through 2000 before increasing at a moderate rate consumption of other meats. As a result of continuing
through the end of the forecast period. Production in concerns over BSE, demand for beef in the EU is
the EU is expected to decline gradually through the expected to be limited.
forecast period as beef consumption falls and stocks
remain high. Increasing import demand in areas like the Pacific
Rim, and in countries such as Russia where production
Global per capita consumption of beef is projected to has been adjusting to market forces, will mean growth
increase gradually as meat demand rises in response to opportunities for exporters. The major exporters will
income growth. Although the current economic crisis continue to increase production for export, while
in Asia could force some household budget realloca- domestic production in the major importing countries
tion away from beef consumption in the short term, is projected to stagnate, mainly because of the rela-
growth is expected to return to its trend over the fore- tively lower cost of imported beef.
cast horizon. However, in some important Pacific Rim
markets, such as Japan, there may be limited potential Much of the growth in beef and veal import demand is
to further expand beef’s role in the diet. Other Asian projected in the Pacific Rim countries where, over the
markets, such as China and the Philippines, may have projection period, increasing incomes and lower trade
more potential for increasing per capita beef demand. barriers will raise consumption beyond that which can
be satisfied by their production base. While economic
In Latin America, significant gains in per capita problems associated with the Asian currency crisis
consumption are expected for Mexico and Brazil. Per may slow Asian imports in the near term, significant

Figure 29 Figure 30
Beef: Historical and projected real prices Beef: Historical and projected price ratios
1990 dollars/ton Ratio
5,000 3.0

2.5
4,000 Beef
(New York) Beef/broiler
2.0

3,000 1.5

1.0
2,000 Beef/pork
0.5

1,000 0.0
1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 1960 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05

Economic Research Service/USDA International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 ❁ 151

152 ❁ International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767

Table 26--Beef trade projections

Crop year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1994-97 avg. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1,000 tons
Exporters
United States 731 826 851 897 932 847 1,012 1,036 1,073 1,112 1,144 1,180 1,217 1,254
Argentina 376 520 470 430 450 449 462 483 521 538 560 572 597 623
Australia 1,168 1,092 1,016 1,095 1,075 1,089 1,148 1,154 1,167 1,177 1,179 1,192 1,196 1,203
Brazil 383 291 277 240 240 286 234 234 240 252 262 275 285 296
Canada 220 219 286 360 380 293 382 384 386 390 396 399 399 396
Central/East Europe 1/ 99 105 92 86 91 95 80 78 79 85 100 112 125 139
Poland 14 17 27 25 25 22 26 19 15 15 15 15 15 15
China 74 95 79 60 50 72 105 107 108 110 112 114 115 117
European Union-15 2/ 1,096 923 913 876 880 938 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817
Former Soviet Union 3/ 441 239 240 109 93 224 328 330 350 366 375 389 397 404
Russia 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Ukraine 168 191 200 76 70 141 178 180 185 191 200 204 207 209
New Zealand 466 504 515 500 480 493 493 501 508 511 513 512 511 510
Total 5,054 4,814 4,739 4,653 4,671 4,786 5,061 5,124 5,249 5,358 5,458 5,562 5,659 5,759
Importers
United States 1,075 954 940 1,082 1,349 1,080 1,105 1,107 1,106 1,104 1,099 1,094 1,085 1,077
Canada 286 256 237 235 240 251 204 200 196 192 188 184 181 177
China 3 3 3 5 7 4 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10
European Union-15 2/ 426 374 354 335 344 367 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350
Former Soviet Union 3/ 542 614 515 534 542 549 708 753 811 851 853 881 911 941
Russia 541 612 480 500 510 529 531 558 591 613 615 625 639 649
Japan 842 927 899 872 914 891 986 1,011 1,038 1,064 1,084 1,108 1,125 1,140
Mexico 90 42 100 138 172 108 208 220 232 242 251 262 278 295
South Korea 165 194 191 225 255 206 304 306 336 366 396 425 455 485
Total 3,429 3,364 3,239 3,426 3,823 3,456 3,871 3,953 4,076 4,176 4,229 4,313 4,395 4,475
1/ Includes the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, and Other Central and Eastern Europe (Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, and the former Yugoslavia). 2/ Excludes EU-15 intratrade.
3/ Includes Russia, Ukraine, and the other republics of the Former Soviet Union; includes FSU intratrade.
Economic Research Service/USDA
Figure 31 Pacific Rim countries. The current financial problems
Major beef trade flows are assumed to exert a short-term drag on beef
imports, but, over the longer-term, increasing incomes
and lower trade barriers will stimulate consumption of
imported beef. Increases in imports are also expected
in Mexico and Russia, where income growth later in
the period is expected to increase demand for beef
more rapidly than the production sector can respond.
Imports of beef for these markets will be further
encouraged by their proximity to the United States and
Central and Eastern Europe, where abundant supplies
of low-priced imported product are expected.
However, as domestic production catches up with
Foot and mouth disease endemic demand later in the period, import growth is expected
Foot and mouth disease free
All products
to slow.
Cooked and in airtight containers only

United States. U.S. beef imports are expected to be

stimulated by herd reductions resulting from the
growth is expected in the longer term. Larger imports drought of 1995/96. High grain prices forced down the
are expected by Mexico and Russia, where income price of feeder cattle and encouraged a liquidation of
growth is expected to increase beef demand more the cow herd. As a result, processing beef will be in
rapidly than domestic production can respond. The short supply as cows are retained for herd rebuilding.
proximity of Mexico and Russia to sources of rela- Imports will increase through much of the forecast
tively low-priced imported product from the United period but will begin declining after 2005. Australia
States and Central and Eastern Europe is likely to and Canada are expected to have ample supplies of
stimulate increased trade. processing-grade beef to supply the United States, but,
given its proximity to the United States, Canada is
Growth in global beef exports is projected to slow as expected to supply an increasing share of U.S.
subsidized exports by the EU are reduced under imports. Imports from New Zealand will likely decline
Uruguay Round commitments. The EU, however, is slightly as production in that country falls. Imports
the only major exporter projected to show a decline in from Australia and New Zealand both will remain
beef exports, as the United States, Australia, and below the TRQ levels established under the WTO.
Argentina are all projected to continue to increase Although Argentina and Uruguay can ship uncooked
export volumes through 2007. Australia and the United product to the United States, imports from those coun-
States will likely vie for the role of leading exporter of tries will be subject to TRQs.
beef and veal. U.S. exports are expected to expand,
although weakness in Pacific Rim imports may keep Japan. Japan’s imports are expected to increase as
export growth more moderate in the near term than demand increases and domestic production declines
previously projected. U.S. exports to Mexico will slightly. Japan is committed to reducing its beef tariffs
continue to expand. With the potential to expand into in accordance with the Uruguay Round Agreement,
markets formerly restricted by disease regulations, which will raise imports, but it is expected that the rate
Argentina is projected to gradually expand exports and of per capita consumption growth will slow in the later
become the fourth largest exporter of beef. part of the forecast period. Therefore, imports are
Concurrently, cutbacks in subsidized EU exports and a projected to increase from 63 to 69 percent of
reduction in beef production in New Zealand will limit consumption. Despite a general decline in Japan’s
the expansion of these countries in the growing world meat production, government support for calf
beef market. producers will result in beef production declines of
less than 1 percent across the forecast horizon.
Highlights for Major Importers Australia and the United States are projected to remain
Over the length of the baseline, much of the growth in far-and-away the dominant suppliers, but Canada is
beef and veal imports is expected to come from the likely to increase its presence.

Economic Research Service/USDA International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 ❁ 153

Former Soviet Union. In the FSU, economic restruc- reach about 24 kgs by 2007. Mexican cattle invento-
turing of the livestock sector has led to a sharp decline ries fell dramatically in 1995 from a combination of a
in beef production. In response to the loss of produc- severe drought and the economic crisis. In the short
tion subsidies, worsening terms of trade for producers, term, the need to rebuild herds will limit production
and declines in consumer incomes, beef production growth and result in rapid growth in imports; as
has fallen 65 percent since the late 1980s. As govern- production expands beyond 2000, however, the rate of
ment support for consumption was eliminated, per growth in imports is expected to decline.
capita consumption declined to levels more in keeping
with countries at a similar economic level. It is Taiwan. Taiwan is expected to become a significant
expected that beef production will hit bottom in 1998 importer of beef during the baseline. Per capita beef
and increase during the remainder of the baseline. consumption is expected to increase 5 percent per year
In the medium term, imports will decline, but, as in response to income growth. Taiwan’s consumption
incomes increase later in the period, imports are needs are almost entirely filled by imports. With little
expected to rise. restriction on beef imports, growth in demand will
translate into import growth of 6 percent per year.
European Union. Beef in the EU is still being affected
by the severe market distortions resulting from the Highlights for Major Exporters
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks Australia and the United States will likely vie for the
and the potential linkage to Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease role of leading exporter of beef and veal by the end of
(see box, page 156). Although consumption has recov- the forecast period. Concurrently, cutbacks in subsi-
ered somewhat from its 1996 lows, the EU remains dized EU exports and a reduction in beef production in
burdened by high stock levels. It is highly unlikely New Zealand will limit the participation of these coun-
that EU governments will allow imports to increase tries in the growing world beef market. With increased
beyond their WTO commitments. production and the potential to expand into the
growing Pacific Rim markets, Argentina is poised to
Canada. Canada’s cattle inventory is currently expand exports and become the fourth largest exporter
declining as it enters its liquidation phase. Beef of beef.
production is expected to rise over the next several
years. Concurrently, per capita consumption is Australia. Australia has moved into first place in beef
expected to remain fairly constant, and imports to exports over the EU, but will come under increasing
decline. The United States is the dominant supplier to pressure from the United States for that role. With the
the Canadian market. return of better weather after several years of drought,
herds are being rebuilt, but beef production is expected
South Korea. Although suffering from economic to increase at a very modest pace. The processing-
turmoil in the near term, South Korea remains obli- grade beef markets of North America are expected to
gated to import increasing amounts of beef under its play a gradually smaller role relative to the Pacific
WTO commitments. Beyond the current crisis, per Rim. However, feed grain sufficiency will remain a
capita consumption is projected to increase through the problem in Australia and, as long as feed supplies are
baseline and imports will likely rise more rapidly constrained, Australia’s expansion into the higher end
toward the end of the period. Korea must end its quota of the fed-beef market against the United States and
and markup systems by 2001; thereafter trade will be Canada will be limited.
regulated only by a tariff that is subject to reduction.
Better quality grain-fed beef will dominate imports, a European Union. The level of beef stocks is expected
situation expected to benefit the United States. to remain a serious problem for EU policy throughout
Although continuation of some government support the baseline period. The crisis in consumer confidence
for livestock producers is expected, it is uncertain as a result of the BSE scare is expected to discourage
what levels of support the government will be able to increases in consumption. Concurrently, beef exports
sustain following the crisis. are projected to fall to meet Uruguay Round subsi-
dized export limits. Without lower support prices, it is
Mexico. Mexico’s beef imports are expected to unlikely that production will fall sufficiently, or that
continue to expand as the economy expands. Demand the large beef surpluses could be marketed without
for beef is expected to return to pre-crisis levels and

154 ❁ International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 Economic Research Service/USDA

subsidy. The baseline assumes that the EU implements Argentina. Beef production is expected to grow
price and other reforms that will align beef production slowly, as declines in cattle pasture will be offset by
with levels consistent with meeting domestic more intensive management of the remaining areas.
consumption and the Uruguay Round export limits, Animal weights are expected to increase and, coupled
while not allowing stocks to exceed historical highs. with a steady decline in per capita consumption, more
beef should be available for export. U.S. acceptance of
The pace of CAP reforms in the EU is a significant uncooked meat from Argentina, while limiting
uncertainty in the forecasts. The extent of any declines Argentina’s exports to 20,000 tons, could open the
in CAP support to reduce production will have a major door for development of a presence in the Pacific Rim.
impact on feed use, prices, and trade. Failure to reduce
production or market stocks could lead to a significant Canada. Canadian exports are projected to remain
financial burden for member countries. strong throughout the period. The United States will
remain Canada’s major beef export market, but fed-
United States. U.S. exports are expected to increase, beef exports into other countries should increase fairly
with the main growth markets being Japan, South rapidly. Elimination of the Western Canada Grain
Korea, and Mexico. Exports to Canada may be limited Transportation Act is expected to encourage increased
by the development of a feeding industry in western feeding of livestock in western Canada. Coupled with
Canada and aggressive marketing by western Canadian modern plants in Canada, fed beef could be exported
packers in traditional U.S. makets in eastern Canada. to the United States and markets in the Pacific Rim.
Exports are projected to rise from 8 to 11 percent of
U.S. production. Central and Eastern Europe. Some growth in CEE
beef exports and production is projected. With
New Zealand. New Zealand’s beef production is improved feeding practices, slaughter weights and
expected to decline marginally as low beef prices and output are expected to increase. Per capita beef
weakening dairy prices encourage producers to look consumption has declined from the 1990 peak due to a
for more profitable alternatives. Although total U.S. drop in incomes, changes in relative prices, and the
beef imports are expected to increase, the U.S. share of end of subsidies. But as income growth returns, per
New Zealand’s exports is expected to decline as New capita consumption is expected to rise. This is
Zealand continues encouraging sales to other buyers in expected to limit the growth of exports in a number of
order to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market. countries, most notably Poland.

Brazil. In Brazil, beef production will expand to meet As in the FSU, the future pace of reform in the CEE
growing domestic demand. Per capita consumption is countries is uncertain and could affect the outlook for
expected to increase about 1-2 percent per year, and production and trade of beef. It is unclear to what
increases in beef production are expected to keep pace extent governments will maintain support to livestock
with the growth in consumption. Thus imports are producers, how fast production will recover, or how
forecast to increase slightly in the near term but to quickly these countries will look to expand exports.
decline toward the end of the period. Due to tariff Trade developments with the EU and Russia will also
reductions under MERCOSUR, Argentina will likely have a strong impact.
be the major supplier to Brazil.

Economic Research Service/USDA International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 ❁ 155

 Impact of the BSE Crisis on the EU Projections

The crisis in the EU over bovine spongiform production. The EU Commission has identified the
encephalopathy (BSE, or “mad cow” disease) is beef sector as the top priority for policy reform,
projected to have a lingering impact on the EU beef with a proposed 30-percent reduction in the beef
sector, with rippling effects throughout European price under discussion. Another factor that will
agricultural markets. Beef consumption in the EU discourage beef production is the ever-declining
dropped 12 percent in 1996, the initial year of the price of beef during the projection period. Despite
crisis, and recovered slightly in 1997, but is projected lower beef prices relative to pork and poultry, the
to continue to decline in the longer term. projection is based on the assumption that
Consumption has been steadily declining since the consumers will continue to harbor health concerns
late 1980’s, and BSE will accelerate this trend. The until BSE is eradicated and the European beef
projections assume that BSE’s dampening effect will supply is again deemed safe. Even in such a
last another 4-5 years and that beef consumption will scenario, it is unclear whether beef consumption
return to trend around 2002. would fully recover to pre-BSE levels.

A major problem faced by the EU is that production Declining beef consumption throughout the EU will
cannot be adjusted quickly enough to address the be offset by gains in pork and especially poultry
market imbalance, resulting in a substantial stock consumption, which is forecast to rise 15 percent
buildup over the next few years. The UK’s 6-year over the next decade. It is assumed that some
cattle eradication program will account for about a 3- consumers will reduce or eliminate meat consump-
percent annual production decline. But this alone will tion altogether, rather than substitute other meats.
not be enough to bring production in line with Therefore, where previous baselines plotted a gradual
consumption. Production will exceed consumption by increase in total meat consumption, this year’s results
as much as .5 million tons, and WTO limits on subsi- project virtually no change in overall meat consump-
dized exports and the ban on British beef exports will tion during the projection period.
inhibit the EU’s ability to export this surplus on
world markets. This imbalance results in large inter- The increased demand for pork and poultry will stim-
vention stocks in the near term, until beef production ulate domestic production of these grain-intensive
more closely reflects the shrunken demand. meats, driving up demand for feed grains. Demand
for corn gluten feed, a major feed input for beef
The projections are based on the assumption that the cattle, will be dampened, mirroring the decline in
EU will adopt additional policies to reduce beef beef consumption.

156 ❁ International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 Economic Research Service/USDA

Table 27--Beef Supply and Use Projections
Slaughter Yield Production Imports Exports Consumption Ending
Total Per cap stocks
1,000 hd Tons/hd --- 1,000 tons --- Kgs. 1,000 tons

United States
1994 35,691 313.64 11,194 1,075 731 11,528 44.2 252
1995 37,294 310.64 11,585 954 826 11,726 44.6 239
1996 38,399 301.52 11,578 940 851 11,731 44.2 171
1997 37,591 306.08 11,506 1,119 870 11,745 43.8 181
1998 36,255 311.60 11,297 1,216 950 11,585 42.9 159
1994-98 ave. 37,046 308.59 11,432 1,061 846 11,663 42.8 200
2000 34,480 307.60 10,606 1,105 1,012 10,697 38.9 187
2001 34,787 311.47 10,835 1,107 1,036 10,900 39.3 193
2002 34,997 318.31 11,140 1,106 1,073 11,162 39.9 205
2003 34,879 323.17 11,272 1,104 1,112 11,253 39.9 216
2004 34,540 327.10 11,298 1,099 1,144 11,253 39.6 216
2005 34,363 331.34 11,386 1,094 1,180 11,300 39.5 216
2006 34,337 334.62 11,490 1,085 1,217 11,358 39.4 216
2007 34,270 337.55 11,568 1,077 1,254 11,391 39.2 216

Argentina
1994 12,400 209.68 2,600 3 376 2,230 65.8 21
1995 12,300 211.38 2,600 6 520 2,080 60.7 27
1996 12,500 206.40 2,580 9 470 2,120 61.1 26
1997 12,200 209.02 2,550 8 430 2,130 60.8 24
1998 11,700 211.97 2,480 10 450 2,050 57.9 14
1994-98 ave. 12,220 209.66 2,562 7 449 2,122 59.2 22
2000 11,768 213.72 2,515 0 462 2,053 56.7 22
2001 11,947 214.53 2,563 0 483 2,079 56.8 23
2002 12,300 215.45 2,650 0 521 2,128 57.6 24
2003 12,380 216.32 2,678 0 538 2,140 57.3 24
2004 12,349 217.10 2,681 0 560 2,121 56.2 24
2005 12,262 217.99 2,673 0 572 2,101 55.1 24
2006 12,344 218.89 2,702 0 597 2,105 54.7 24
2007 12,533 219.74 2,754 0 623 2,130 54.8 24

Australia
1994 8,332 219.52 1,829 6 1,168 669 37.4 42
1995 7,917 216.88 1,717 5 1,092 650 36.0 22
1996 7,767 210.89 1,638 7 1,016 624 34.2 27
1997 7,961 216.05 1,720 5 1,095 621 33.7 36
1998 7,900 212.66 1,680 5 1,075 625 33.6 21
1994-98 ave. 7,975 215.26 1,717 6 1,089 638 34.0 30
2000 8,155 219.99 1,794 0 1,148 646 34.1 43
2001 8,083 223.43 1,806 0 1,154 652 34.1 43
2002 8,030 227.40 1,826 0 1,167 658 34.2 44
2003 8,053 228.73 1,842 0 1,177 665 34.2 44
2004 8,102 228.22 1,849 0 1,179 670 34.2 44
2005 8,133 229.68 1,868 0 1,192 676 34.2 45
2006 8,156 230.14 1,877 0 1,196 681 34.2 45
2007 8,175 231.07 1,889 0 1,203 686 34.3 46

Brazil
1994 28,088 204.00 5,730 88 383 5,415 34.1 50
1995 29,803 204.01 6,080 124 291 5,903 36.7 60
1996 31,144 197.47 6,150 144 277 6,057 37.2 20
1997 29,514 204.99 6,050 160 240 5,980 36.4 10
1998 29,184 206.28 6,020 180 240 5,970 35.9 0
1994-98 ave. 29,547 203.27 6,006 139 286 5,865 34.9 28
2000 29,094 208.36 6,062 188 234 6,015 35.5 0
2001 29,595 209.39 6,197 190 234 6,153 36.0 0
2002 29,892 210.42 6,290 190 240 6,240 36.2 0
2003 30,327 211.49 6,414 188 252 6,350 36.5 0
2004 30,855 212.54 6,558 187 262 6,483 36.9 0
2005 31,430 213.62 6,714 185 275 6,624 37.4 0
2006 32,063 214.67 6,883 184 285 6,782 38.0 0
2007 32,715 215.74 7,058 183 296 6,945 38.6 0
Continued---

Economic Research Service/USDA International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 ❁ 157

Table 27--Beef Supply and Use Projections
Slaughter Yield Production Imports Exports Consumption Ending
Total Per cap stocks
1,000 hd Tons/hd --- 1,000 tons --- Kgs. 1,000 tons

Canada
1994 3,083 292.90 903 286 220 962 34.1 31
1995 3,148 294.79 928 256 219 971 34.1 25
1996 3,505 284.74 998 237 286 951 33.0 23
1997 3,685 283.85 1,046 235 360 923 31.7 21
1998 3,725 282.68 1,053 240 380 909 30.9 25
1994-98 ave. 3,429 287.41 986 251 293 943 31.7 25
2000 -- -- 1,093 204 382 914 30.5 25
2001 -- -- 1,099 200 384 915 30.2 25
2002 -- -- 1,102 196 386 912 29.9 26
2003 -- -- 1,113 192 390 915 29.7 26
2004 -- -- 1,124 188 396 916 29.5 26
2005 -- -- 1,133 184 399 918 29.3 26
2006 -- -- 1,141 181 399 923 29.2 26
2007 -- -- 1,150 177 396 931 29.3 26

Central & Eastern Europe

1994 7,230 206.50 1,493 69 99 1,522 12.6 103
1995 6,441 220.62 1,421 71 105 1,415 11.8 87
1996 6,830 207.17 1,415 57 92 1,398 11.6 81
1997 6,646 213.21 1,417 74 86 1,408 11.7 90
1998 6,418 215.64 1,384 81 91 1,385 11.5 91
1994-98 ave. 6,713 212.42 1,426 70 95 1,426 11.9 90
2000 3,289 439.33 1,445 48 80 1,412 11.7 99
2001 3,484 423.15 1,474 51 78 1,444 12.0 102
2002 3,625 412.43 1,495 53 79 1,467 12.1 105
2003 3,744 406.72 1,523 59 85 1,495 12.3 107
2004 3,857 402.41 1,552 61 100 1,512 12.4 108
2005 3,957 398.45 1,577 68 112 1,532 12.6 109
2006 4,083 393.36 1,606 75 125 1,555 12.7 111
2007 4,231 387.37 1,639 84 139 1,582 12.9 112

China
1994 24,479 133.58 3,270 3 74 3,199 2.7 0
1995 30,497 136.21 4,154 3 95 4,062 3.4 0
1996 37,015 133.62 4,946 3 79 4,870 4.0 0
1997 40,000 135.00 5,400 5 60 5,345 4.4 0
1998 43,000 134.88 5,800 7 50 5,757 4.7 0
1994-98 ave. 34,998 134.69 4,714 4 72 4,647 3.7 0
2000 38,478 150.71 5,799 6 105 5,700 4.5 0
2001 38,881 156.27 6,076 6 107 5,975 4.7 0
2002 39,214 162.06 6,355 7 108 6,254 4.9 0
2003 39,471 168.05 6,633 7 110 6,530 5.1 0
2004 39,646 174.27 6,909 8 112 6,805 5.3 0
2005 39,754 180.71 7,184 9 114 7,079 5.5 0
2006 39,803 187.40 7,459 10 115 7,354 5.6 0
2007 39,794 194.33 7,733 10 117 7,626 5.8 0

EU-15
1994 28,706 273.71 7,857 426 1,096 7,603 20.5 521
1995 28,162 279.10 7,860 374 923 7,431 19.9 396
1996 27,991 280.05 7,839 354 913 6,888 18.4 788
1997 27,519 276.61 7,612 335 876 6,855 18.3 1,004
1998 27,258 273.94 7,467 344 880 6,855 18.2 1,080
1994-98 ave. 27,927 276.68 7,727 367 938 7,126 18.8 758
2000 -- -- 6,617 350 817 6,228 16.4 1,282
2001 -- -- 6,417 350 817 6,060 15.9 1,172
2002 -- -- 6,372 350 817 5,950 15.6 1,127
2003 -- -- 6,322 350 817 5,916 15.5 1,066
2004 -- -- 6,339 350 817 5,923 15.4 1,015
2005 -- -- 6,355 350 817 5,938 15.4 965
2006 -- -- 6,349 350 817 5,932 15.4 915
2007 -- -- 6,377 350 817 5,935 15.4 890
Continued---

158 ❁ International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 Economic Research Service/USDA

Table 27--Beef Supply and Use Projections
Slaughter Yield Production Imports Exports Consumption Ending
Total Per cap stocks
1,000 hd Tons/hd --- 1,000 tons --- Kgs. 1,000 tons

Former Soviet Union

1994 34,567 165.74 5,729 542 441 5,842 20.0 521
1995 28,779 155.25 4,468 614 239 4,934 16.9 430
1996 25,421 167.11 4,248 515 240 4,501 15.4 429
1997 22,678 160.90 3,649 534 109 4,103 14.0 382
1998 20,110 165.89 3,336 542 93 3,800 13.0 367
1994-98 ave. 26,311 162.90 4,286 549 224 4,636 15.8 426
2000 -- -- 5,057 708 328 5,438 18.4 377
2001 -- -- 5,105 753 330 5,528 18.7 377
2002 -- -- 5,147 811 350 5,608 18.9 377
2003 -- -- 5,239 851 366 5,724 19.2 377
2004 -- -- 5,355 853 375 5,833 19.5 377
2005 -- -- 5,459 881 389 5,951 19.8 377
2006 -- -- 5,563 911 397 6,077 20.1 377
2007 -- -- 5,682 941 404 6,219 20.5 377

Japan
1994 1,537 391.67 602 842 0 1,446 11.6 118
1995 1,506 399.07 601 927 0 1,518 12.1 128
1996 1,389 399.57 555 899 0 1,438 11.5 144
1997 1,345 399.26 537 872 0 1,430 11.4 123
1998 1,320 399.24 527 914 0 1,440 11.4 124
1994-98 ave. 1,419 397.63 564 891 0 1,454 11.5 127
2000 1,314 398.33 523 986 0 1,507 11.9 130
2001 1,332 398.42 531 1,011 0 1,539 12.1 133
2002 1,329 399.25 531 1,038 0 1,566 12.3 135
2003 1,322 400.15 529 1,064 0 1,591 12.5 137
2004 1,317 400.84 528 1,084 0 1,610 12.6 139
2005 1,312 401.75 527 1,108 0 1,633 12.8 141
2006 1,305 402.76 526 1,125 0 1,649 12.9 142
2007 1,297 403.78 524 1,140 0 1,663 13.0 143

Mexico
1994 8,310 217.81 1,810 90 1 1,899 20.6 0
1995 8,550 216.37 1,850 42 2 1,890 20.1 0
1996 8,180 220.05 1,800 100 2 1,898 19.8 0
1997 8,220 218.98 1,800 138 3 1,935 19.8 0
1998 8,000 222.50 1,780 172 3 1,949 19.6 0
1994-98 ave. 8,252 219.10 1,808 108 2 1,914 18.9 0
2000 8,568 222.81 1,909 208 5 2,113 20.5 0
2001 8,905 224.37 1,998 220 6 2,212 21.1 0
2002 9,244 225.77 2,087 232 6 2,313 21.7 0
2003 9,501 227.24 2,159 242 7 2,394 22.1 0
2004 9,755 228.70 2,231 251 7 2,475 22.5 0
2005 9,998 230.25 2,302 262 7 2,557 22.9 0
2006 10,219 231.73 2,368 278 7 2,639 23.3 0
2007 10,418 233.25 2,430 295 7 2,718 23.6 0

New Zealand
1994 2,945 192.19 566 3 466 98 28.3 61
1995 3,104 202.96 630 2 504 100 28.5 89
1996 3,858 163.56 631 3 515 128 36.1 80
1997 3,630 168.04 610 2 500 121 33.7 71
1998 3,600 167.50 603 2 480 118 32.5 78
1994-98 ave. 3,427 177.39 608 2 493 113 30.9 76
2000 3,660 164.97 604 0 493 111 30.0 68
2001 3,749 163.83 614 0 501 113 30.3 68
2002 3,833 162.85 624 0 508 116 30.8 68
2003 3,876 162.31 629 0 511 118 31.1 68
2004 3,884 162.87 633 0 513 120 31.2 68
2005 3,887 162.95 633 0 512 121 31.4 68
2006 3,890 163.03 634 0 511 123 31.6 68
2007 3,889 163.28 635 0 510 125 31.8 68
Continued---

Economic Research Service/USDA International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 ❁ 159

Table 27--Beef Supply and Use Projections
Slaughter Yield Production Imports Exports Consumption Ending
Total Per cap stocks
1,000 hd Tons/hd --- 1,000 tons --- Kgs. 1,000 tons

Poland
1994 3,249 124.65 405 18 14 409 10.6 10
1995 2,687 148.86 400 8 17 393 10.2 8
1996 2,950 130.85 386 23 27 385 10.0 5
1997 2,750 136.36 375 23 25 372 9.6 6
1998 2,650 135.85 360 20 25 355 9.2 6
1994-98 ave. 2,857 134.82 385 18 22 383 9.8 7
2000 -- -- 389 13 26 376 9.6 6
2001 -- -- 379 13 19 373 9.5 6
2002 -- -- 368 13 15 366 9.3 6
2003 -- -- 366 16 15 367 9.3 6
2004 -- -- 366 17 15 368 9.3 6
2005 -- -- 364 20 15 369 9.3 6
2006 -- -- 362 25 15 372 9.3 6
2007 -- -- 362 30 15 377 9.4 6

Russia
1994 19,771 163.88 3,240 541 4 3,791 25.6 389
1995 17,292 158.11 2,734 612 5 3,402 22.9 328
1996 14,715 175.33 2,580 480 5 3,055 20.6 305
1997 13,015 176.72 2,300 500 5 2,795 18.9 287
1998 10,915 183.23 2,000 510 5 2,505 16.9 287
1994-98 ave. 15,142 169.78 2,571 529 5 3,110 21.0 319
2000 -- -- 2,467 531 5 2,994 20.2 287
2001 -- -- 2,499 558 5 3,052 20.6 287
2002 -- -- 2,500 591 5 3,086 20.8 287
2003 -- -- 2,538 613 5 3,146 21.2 287
2004 -- -- 2,593 615 5 3,203 21.5 287
2005 -- -- 2,643 625 5 3,263 21.9 287
2006 -- -- 2,695 639 5 3,329 22.3 287
2007 -- -- 2,759 649 5 3,403 22.8 287

South Korea
1994 778 257.07 200 165 0 372 8.3 15
1995 780 274.36 214 194 0 416 9.2 7
1996 850 277.65 236 191 0 429 9.4 5
1997 983 274.67 270 225 0 450 9.8 50
1998 986 278.90 275 255 0 500 10.8 80
1994-98 ave. 875 273.02 239 206 0 433 9.2 31
2000 1,014 277.71 282 304 0 557 11.8 81
2001 1,009 278.30 281 306 0 590 12.3 77
2002 1,002 278.74 279 336 0 619 12.8 74
2003 994 279.68 278 366 0 648 13.3 70
2004 985 280.91 277 396 0 677 13.8 66
2005 975 282.05 275 425 0 704 14.2 62
2006 965 282.90 273 455 0 732 14.7 58
2007 953 284.16 271 485 0 759 15.1 55

Ukraine
1994 8,841 161.41 1,427 0 168 1,256 24.5 100
1995 8,258 143.62 1,186 0 191 1,020 20.0 75
1996 7,959 149.01 1,186 33 200 994 19.5 100
1997 7,300 124.66 910 32 76 871 17.2 95
1998 6,900 130.43 900 30 70 875 17.3 80
1994-98 ave. 7,852 142.88 1,122 19 141 1,003 19.9 90
2000 -- -- 971 0 178 792 15.7 90
2001 -- -- 988 0 180 808 16.1 90
2002 -- -- 1,016 0 185 831 16.5 90
2003 -- -- 1,039 0 191 848 16.9 90
2004 -- -- 1,065 0 200 865 17.2 90
2005 -- -- 1,090 0 204 886 17.7 90
2006 -- -- 1,111 0 207 904 18.0 90
2007 -- -- 1,132 0 209 923 18.4 90

160 ❁ International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007/AER-767 Economic Research Service/USDA