Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonde
deadly weapon if you wish t
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 792 Remember! Focus on decisio
Face Value (Rs) 5.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 3.4
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 2,664

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 15.0% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've de
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 52.5% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 53.9% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.3 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 13.3%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 15.7
Latest P/E (x) 26.4
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be a
deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Equity Share Capital 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 17 17 17
Reserves 68 92 111 129 151 310 336 375 447 541
Borrowings 101 128 119 119 106 100 131 183 51 78
Other Liabilities 26 38 63 60 54 80 102 98 94 110
Total 201 264 298 314 316 495 577 673 609 746

Net Block 33 125 131 125 136 211 212 245 236 236
Capital Work in Progress 20 2 0 0 1 15 40 1 2 12
Investments 0 0 - - - 2 2 - 6 10
Other Assets 148 136 167 189 179 267 323 428 365 487
Total 201 264 298 314 316 495 577 673 609 746

Working Capital 122 98 104 128 125 187 222 330 271 377
Debtors 30 38 64 79 78 104 135 161 152 189
Inventory 44 75 79 83 73 114 133 203 162 228
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 54 64 75 81 82 84 97 78 73 97
Inventory Turnover 5 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 3
Fixed Asset Turnover 6.2 1.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.0
Debt/Equity 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1
Return on Equity 3% 25% 17% 14% 15% 8% 9% 13% 19% 18%
Return on Capital Employed 3% 16% 17% 15% 17% 11% 12% 15% 22% 22%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Trailing
Sales 202 217 309 355 351 456 506 753 759 709 709
% Growth YOY 7% 43% 15% -1% 30% 11% 49% 1% -7%
Expenses 191 186 264 312 301 397 439 637 632 553 554
Material Cost (% of Sales) 70% 68% 68% 68% 62% 64% 65% 69% 64% 58% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 8% 10% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 0% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 0% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 0%
Operating Profit 11 31 45 43 50 58 66 116 128 156 155
Operating Profit Margin 6% 14% 15% 12% 14% 13% 13% 15% 17% 22% 22%
Other Income -3 8 3 3 3 1 4 -9 7 2 2
Other Income as % of Sales -1.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% -1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3%
Depreciation 3 3 8 9 9 14 15 18 19 17 17
Interest 2 1 10 11 9 5 7 13 12 2 2
Interest Coverage(Times) 2 28 4 4 5 9 8 7 10 58 58
Profit before tax (PBT) 3 35 31 27 34 40 48 76 104 137 137
% Growth YOY 1025% -10% -14% 26% 19% 20% 57% 36% 33%
PBT Margin 2% 16% 10% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 14% 19% 19%
Tax 1 11 11 8 11 15 18 26 17 35 36
Net profit 2 24 20 19 23 26 30 50 87 102 101
% Growth YOY 1029% -16% -4% 18% 13% 18% 64% 74% 18%
Net Profit Margin 1% 11% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 11% 14% 14%
EPS 1.0 11.6 9.8 9.3 11.0 12.4 9.0 14.8 25.7 30.4 30.0
% Growth YOY 1029% -16% -4% 18% 13% -27% 64% 74% 18%
Price to earning 25.8 3.3 5.1 6.7 9.8 14.6 24.1 15.3 5.3 19.3 26.4
Price 27 39 50 62 108 182 217 227 135 587 792
Dividend Payout 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.0% 5.5% 6.8% 9.7% 8.2%
Market Cap 55 80 103 128 223 374 730 765 456 1,977
Retained Earnings 2 24 19 18 22 25 29 47 78 94
Buffett's $1 Test 5.4

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 15.0% 12.6% 15.1% 11.9%
PBT Growth 52.5% 23.6% 32.3% 41.7%
PBT Margin 10.6% 11.3% 12.3% 14.4%
Price to Earning 12.9 13.6 15.7 13.3

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 14 -14 31 17 42 39 9 -24 185 19 319
% Growth YoY -198% -325% -45% 143% -6% -76% -353% -871% -90%
Cash from Investing Activity -14 -67 -6 -6 -16 -17 -26 -12 -16 -32 -213
Cash from Financing Activity 50 30 -24 -12 -26 -24 19 38 -160 16 -93
Net Cash Flow 50 -52 2 -0 -0 -2 2 1 9 2 13
CFO/Sales 7% -6% 10% 5% 12% 9% 2% -3% 24% 3%
CFO/Net Profit 672% -58% 156% 90% 184% 154% 31% -48% 213% 18%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -301 -226 -333 -548 -565 -898 -1,147 -1,662 -1,053 -806 -7,537
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,174
FCF Growth YoY -25% 48% 65% 3% 59% 28% 45% -37% -24%
FCF/Sales -149% -104% -108% -154% -161% -197% -227% -221% -139% -114%
FCF/Net Profit ### -942% -1655% -2844% -2491% -3505% -3780% -3332% -1214% -786%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Sales Growth 7.2% 42.7% 14.8% -1.2% 29.8% 11.0% 48.8% 0.9%
PBT Growth 1024.9% -10.1% -13.8% 25.9% 18.9% 19.8% 57.1% 36.4%
Net Profit Growth 1029.2% -16.0% -4.2% 17.8% 12.9% 18.4% 64.5% 73.9%
Dividend Growth #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -25.2% 0.0% 0.0% 118.2% 100.6% 149.9%
Operating Cash Flow Growth -197.8% ### -44.9% 142.6% -5.8% -76.0% ### ###
Free Cash Flow Growth -25.0% 47.6% 64.6% 3.2% 58.8% 27.7% 45.0% -36.6%

Operating Margin 5.5% 14.4% 14.6% 12.1% 14.2% 12.8% 13.1% 15.4% 16.8%
PBT Margin 1.5% 16.0% 10.1% 7.6% 9.7% 8.9% 9.6% 10.1% 13.6%
Net Margin 1.0% 11.0% 6.5% 5.4% 6.5% 5.6% 6.0% 6.6% 11.4%

Debtor Days 53.7 63.8 75.0 80.8 81.6 83.6 97.2 78.1 73.2
Inventory Turnover 4.5 2.9 3.9 4.3 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 4.7
Fixed Asset Turnover 6.2 1.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.2
Debt/Equity 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1
Debt/Assets 50.4% 48.7% 39.9% 38.1% 33.6% 20.1% 22.6% 27.2% 8.3%
Interest Coverage (Times) 2.3 28.4 4.3 3.5 4.6 9.4 8.0 6.9 9.7
Return on Equity 2.9% 24.6% 17.3% 14.4% 14.6% 8.1% 8.8% 12.7% 18.7%
Return on Capital Employed 3.2% 16.0% 17.3% 14.8% 16.6% 10.9% 11.6% 15.4% 22.4%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -301 -226 -333 -548 -565 -898 -1,147 -1,662 -1,053
Mar/21
-6.7%
32.8%
18.1%
0.0%
-89.9%
-23.5%

21.9%
19.4%
14.5%

97.4
3.1
3.0
0.1
10.4%
58.3
18.4%
22.0%
-806
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
25% Profit Margin 30%
Capital Allo
Check for a rising trend a
20% 25% Numbers > 20% long term
has zero/marginal debt. C
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20 Jan/12 Jan/14

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin RO

800
Revenue 1200% Revenue and P
Check for a rising trend. Check for a r
700 1000% Compare gro
600
800%
500
600%
400
300 400%
200 200%
100 0%
- Jan/13 Jan/15
-200%
Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20
Revenue Gro
Net Profit Gr

160 Profit Over Time Operating an

500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numb
140 which are rising over ti
120 -
100 Jan/12 Jan/14
-500
80
60 -1,000
40 -1,500
20
- -2,000
Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Operating Margin 6% 14% 15% 12% 14% 13% 13% 15% 17%
PBT Margin 2% 16% 10% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 14%
Net Margin 1% 11% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 11%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
ROE 3% 25% 17% 14% 15% 8% 9% 13% 19%
ROCE 3% 16% 17% 15% 17% 11% 12% 15% 22%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Revenue Growth 7% 43% 15% -1% 30% 11% 49% 1% -7%
PBT Growth 1025% -10% -14% 26% 19% 20% 57% 36% 33%
Net Profit Growth 1029% -16% -4% 18% 13% 18% 64% 74% 18%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Revenue 202 217 309 355 351 456 506 753 759
PBT 3 35 31 27 34 40 48 76 104
Net Profit 2 24 20 19 23 26 30 50 87

Cash Flows
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Operating Cash Flow 14 -14 31 17 42 39 9 -24 185
Free Cash Flow -301 -226 -333 -548 -565 -898 -1,147 -1,662 -1,053
 Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year

Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/21

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.

Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20

0
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/21
22%
19%
14%

Mar/21
18%
22%

Mar/21
709
137
102

Mar/21
19
-806
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 70% 68% 68% 68% 62% 64% 65% 69% 64% 58%
Change in Inventory -5% 6% 4% 1% -2% -1% 1% 3% 1% 3%
Power and Fuel 8% 10% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 0%
Employee Cost 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6%
Selling and Admin Cost 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 0%
Other Expenses 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 17%
Operating Profit 16% 3% 7% 10% 19% 14% 12% 9% 14% 16%
Other Income -1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% -1% 1% 0%
Depreciation 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2%
Interest 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0%
Profit Before Tax 2% 16% 10% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 14% 19%
Tax 0% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 5%
Net Profit 1% 11% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 11% 14%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 3% 2%
Reserves 34% 35% 37% 41% 48% 63% 58% 56% 73% 73%
Borrowings 50% 49% 40% 38% 34% 20% 23% 27% 8% 10%
Other Liabilities 13% 14% 21% 19% 17% 16% 18% 15% 15% 15%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 16% 47% 44% 40% 43% 43% 37% 36% 39% 32%
Capital Work in Progress 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 7% 0% 0% 2%
Investments 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Other Assets 74% 52% 56% 60% 57% 54% 56% 64% 60% 65%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 15% 14% 21% 25% 25% 21% 23% 24% 25% 25%
Inventory 22% 28% 27% 27% 23% 23% 23% 30% 27% 31%
Cash & Bank 28% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,350) (1,205) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,552) (1,237) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,785) (1,271) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,963) (1,248) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (2,160) (1,226) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,376) (1,204) Sales 15% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,495) (1,128) PBT 32% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,619) (1,058) FCF 7% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,750) (992) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,888) (930) 10 FY27
10 -28,878 (9,298) 10
Intrinsic Value (14,967) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,664 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -118% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,408) (1,257) Year 4-6 15%
(1,690) (1,347) Year 7-10 10%
(2,028) (1,444) Discount Rate 12%
(2,332) (1,482)
(2,682) (1,522)
(3,084) (1,563)
(3,393) (1,535)
(3,732) (1,507)
(4,105) (1,480)
(4,516) (1,454)
(67,740) (21,810)
Intrinsic Value (30,574)
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,664
Premium/(Discount) to IV -109%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name IENTAL AROMATICS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/21 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 59.0 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 17.6 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 2,577 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 2,664 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
IENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Mar/21

59.0
8.5
35.2

4,653
2,664

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,174) (26,717)

2,664
Years 1-5 6-10 -1003%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,751)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (1,350) 15% (1,205)
2 (1,552) 15% (1,237)
3 (1,785) 15% (1,271)
4 (2,053) 15% (1,305)
5 (2,361) 15% (1,339)
6 (2,644) 12% (1,339)
7 (2,961) 12% (1,339)
8 (3,317) 12% (1,339)
9 (3,715) 12% (1,339)
10 (4,160) 12% (1,339)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (4,243)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (13,055)
Terminal Value (13,663)
Total PV of Cash Flows (26,717)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,664

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
S LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Particulars Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 2 24 20 19 23 26 30
Net Profit Margin 1% 11% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6%
Return on Equity 3% 25% 17% 14% 15% 8% 9%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 318
Current P/E (x) 26.0
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 6,363
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 2,049
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,664

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
50 87 102 54% 35%
7% 11% 14%
13% 19% 18%
 Intrinsic Value Range
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho -14,967 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham 2,577 4,653 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF -26,717 understand this business?
Expected Return 2,049
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 2,664 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21
Sales 205 201 212 204 175 170 113 184 191 221
% Growth YOY -15% -16% -47% -10% 9% 30%
Expenses 181 170 175 177 147 134 95 135 137 188
Operating Profit 24 31 36 27 28 36 18 49 54 34
Other Income 0 -9 0 2 2 4 1 0 0 1
Depreciation 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Interest 1 3 3 4 2 4 1 0 0 1
Profit before tax 19 14 29 20 23 31 14 45 50 30
PBT Margin 9% 7% 14% 10% 13% 18% 12% 24% 26% 13%
% Growth YOY 26% 121% -53% 122% 113% -4%
Tax 1 11 10 -6 5 17 3 11 13 8
Net profit 17 3 19 26 18 14 10 33 36 21
% Growth YOY 5% 397% -46% 27% 103% 50%
OPM 12% 16% 17% 13% 16% 21% 16% 27% 28% 15%
COMPANY NAME ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 3.37
Face Value 5
Current Price 791.55
Market Capitalization 2663.85

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 202.24 216.82 309.33 355.06 350.92 455.56
Raw Material Cost 142.27 148.49 211.60 242.95 216.35 293.12
Change in Inventory -10.64 12.43 12.50 3.18 -8.37 -3.77
Power and Fuel 16.45 21.49 26.53 29.58 28.4 27.36
Other Mfr. Exp 4.74 6.26 12.96 16.01 17.31 21.32
Employee Cost 9.69 10.39 12.71 14.42 15.52 23.06
Selling and admin 4.86 6.23 8.21 9.9 11.19 21.61
Other Expenses 2.43 5.13 4.66 2.38 4.11 7.21
Other Income -2.87 7.91 3.28 3.34 3.13 1.25
Depreciation 2.75 3.14 7.68 8.78 9.42 14.22
Interest 2.45 1.27 9.5 10.62 9.46 4.81
Profit before tax 3.09 34.76 31.26 26.94 33.92 40.33
Tax 0.97 10.82 11.15 7.68 11.23 14.72
Net profit 2.12 23.94 20.11 19.26 22.69 25.61
Dividend Amount 1.03 0.77 0.77 0.77

Quarters
Report Date Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
Sales 205.49 201 211.72 204.16 175.44 169.69
Expenses 181.43 169.71 175.45 177.09 147.43 133.57
Other Income 0.08 -9.08 0.07 1.54 1.72 3.69
Depreciation 4.32 5.08 4.52 4.67 4.7 5.13
Interest 1.32 3.07 2.85 3.85 1.70 3.56
Profit before tax 18.5 14.06 28.97 20.09 23.33 31.12
Tax 1.45 11.19 10.42 -6.03 5.42 16.79
Net profit 17.05 2.88 18.55 26.12 17.91 14.32
Operating Profit 24.06 31.29 36.27 27.07 28.01 36.12

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13
Reserves 68.16 92.1 111 128.78 150.54 310.29
Borrowings 101.24 128.34 118.90 119.49 106.33 99.69
Other Liabilities 26.37 38.04 62.93 60.48 54.13 80.07
Total 200.9 263.61 297.96 313.88 316.13 495.18
Net Block 32.67 124.99 131.12 125.16 136.26 211.36
Capital Work in Progress 20.09 2.32 0.02 0.16 0.67 15.05
Investments 0.08 0.08 2
Other Assets 148.06 136.22 166.82 188.56 179.2 266.77
Total 200.9 263.61 297.96 313.88 316.13 495.18
Receivables 29.73 37.9 63.6 78.6 78.49 104.28
Inventory 44.45 74.65 79.19 83.18 73.27 114.45
Cash & Bank 55.43 1.61 3.32 3.01 2.87 1.32
No. of Equity Shares 5133674 5133674 5133674 5133674 5133674 5133674
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Cash from Operating Activity 14.25 -13.93 31.29 17.25 41.84 39.42
Cash from Investing Activity -13.99 -67.48 -5.65 -5.9 -16.28 -16.87
Cash from Financing Activity 49.82 29.9 -23.95 -11.75 -25.75 -24.18
Net Cash Flow 50.08 -51.51 1.69 -0.39 -0.2 -1.63

PRICE: 26.52 38.9 50.1 62.3 108.33 181.55

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

505.7 752.55 759.43 708.84
330.44 521.76 485.97 414.52
3.31 24.54 9.03 19.92
28.01 34.21 35.73
23.64 28.59 31.75
25.76 30.86 35.94 39.38
27.8 37.33 41.42
7.05 8.35 10.1 119.31
3.65 -9.41 6.92 1.76
14.76 17.71 19.02 17.46
6.88 12.97 11.95 2.40
48.32 75.9 103.5 137.45
17.99 26.02 16.75 35.02
30.33 49.88 86.75 102.43
1.68 3.37 8.42 8.42

Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21

113.26 183.83 190.68 221.38
94.93 134.67 136.86 187.86
0.57 0.33 0.27 1.31
4.62 4.62 4.23 3.99
0.77 0.32 0.26 1.05
13.51 44.55 49.6 29.79
3.46 11.38 13.25 8.38
10.04 33.16 36.36 21.41
18.33 49.16 53.82 33.52

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

8.41 16.83 16.83 16.83
 336.2 375.16 446.98 540.63
130.67 183.41 50.76 77.86
101.69 97.78 94.31 110.28
576.97 673.18 608.88 745.6
211.66 244.81 236.18 236.47
39.92 0.8 1.74 12.49
2 6 9.6
323.39 427.57 364.96 487.04
576.97 673.18 608.88 745.6
134.65 161.04 152.35 189.13
132.76 202.66 162.34 227.59
3.62 4.88 14.87 17.11
8413420 33653576 33653576

10 5 5 5

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

9.48 -23.95 184.56 18.56
-26.23 -12.41 -15.63 -32.08
19 37.63 -159.5 15.61
2.25 1.27 9.43 2.09

217.39 226.95 135.3 586.5

3.36 3.37 3.37 3.37

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