Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 361 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 216.9
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 78,343

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 6.5% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 30.7% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 30.2% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.7 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 23.8%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 10.5
Latest P/E (x) 11.7
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 362 362 362 362 723 723 723 656 1,311 1,967
Reserves 11,767 12,725 13,696 14,552 15,911 18,736 21,744 26,667 28,881 32,642
Borrowings 21,171 22,195 18,960 22,994 23,839 20,322 13,098 15,857 23,159 23,351
Other Liabilities 14,694 19,035 23,911 28,604 27,332 33,561 35,349 32,879 40,111 44,112
Total 47,994 54,317 56,929 66,512 67,805 73,341 70,915 76,060 93,463 102,071

Net Block 11,966 13,669 15,999 16,612 16,690 19,040 20,315 23,207 31,437 42,978
Capital Work in Progress 2,037 2,518 972 1,119 2,420 3,065 7,666 12,664 11,623 4,408
Investments 18,078 13,501 12,037 10,917 12,103 11,847 12,391 12,811 14,601 15,821
Other Assets 15,912 24,628 27,920 37,863 36,592 39,390 30,543 27,377 35,802 38,865
Total 47,994 54,317 56,929 66,512 67,805 73,341 70,915 76,060 93,463 102,071

Working Capital 1,218 5,593 4,009 9,259 9,260 5,829 -4,807 -5,503 -4,310 -5,247
Debtors 1,426 2,663 2,533 6,378 4,025 4,080 2,561 2,189 4,758 5,153
Inventory 6,824 12,029 15,375 15,948 16,690 19,071 14,458 13,793 19,798 20,874
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 4 8 6 11 6 6 4 4 9 8
Inventory Turnover 20 10 10 13 14 14 16 14 10 11
Fixed Asset Turnover 11.2 8.9 9.5 12.8 14.4 13.7 11.7 8.1 6.4 5.5
Debt/Equity 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7
Return on Equity 6% 12% 11% 9% 16% 21% 23% 26% 27% 23%
Return on Capital Employed 10% 10% 11% 10% 14% 18% 22% 25% 22% 21%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 134,063 121,765 151,639 211,973 240,116 260,075 238,087 188,405 202,211 236,313 288,397
% Growth YOY -9% 25% 40% 13% 8% -8% -21% 7% 17%
Expenses 130,840 119,170 147,899 208,042 233,830 251,932 229,772 177,259 191,345 224,564 277,643
Material Cost (% of Sales) 91% 94% 93% 93% 93% 92% 89% 86% 90% 88% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1%
Operating Profit 3,223 2,595 3,740 3,931 6,286 8,143 8,315 11,146 10,866 11,749 10,754
Operating Profit Margin 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 6% 5% 5% 4%
Other Income 1,022 2,023 1,427 1,638 1,501 1,412 2,200 1,655 2,564 2,931 2,886
Other Income as % of Sales 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0%
Depreciation 1,076 1,242 1,655 1,885 1,926 2,247 2,516 1,845 1,891 2,648 3,016
Interest 2,166 1,011 1,117 1,800 1,825 1,359 583 565 496 833 1,186
Interest Coverage(Times) 1 3 3 2 3 5 14 19 23 14 9
Profit before tax (PBT) 1,003 2,365 2,395 1,884 4,036 5,949 7,416 10,391 11,043 11,198 9,438
% Growth YOY 136% 1% -21% 114% 47% 25% 40% 6% 1%
PBT Margin 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 6% 5% 5% 3%
Tax 267 827 848 573 1,393 1,888 2,331 3,335 3,003 3,279 2,758
Net profit 736 1,538 1,547 1,311 2,643 4,061 5,085 7,056 8,039 7,919 6,681
% Growth YOY 109% 1% -15% 102% 54% 25% 39% 14% -1%
Net Profit Margin 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 4% 3% 2%
EPS 3.9 8.1 8.2 6.9 12.2 18.7 23.4 32.5 37.1 36.5 30.8
% Growth YOY 109% 1% -15% 76% 54% 25% 39% 14% -1%
Price to earning 16.3 10.4 12.4 16.4 10.7 8.1 11.3 9.6 12.7 11.1 11.7
Price 63 84 102 114 131 151 265 311 469 407 361
Dividend Payout 34.4% 32.9% 32.7% 30.3% 30.1% 30.3% 32.0% 28.8% 53.0% 52.2%
Market Cap 11,985 15,922 19,239 21,502 28,325 32,716 57,465 67,507 101,716 88,299
Retained Earnings 483 1,031 1,041 914 1,848 2,832 3,458 5,024 3,778 3,789
Buffett's $1 Test 3.2

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 6.5% 6.5% -0.3% -0.2%
PBT Growth 30.7% 24.7% 22.6% 14.7%
PBT Margin 2.8% 3.4% 4.2% 5.2%
Price to Earning 11.9 11.4 10.5 11.1

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over past
3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to 10
years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 6,212 -1,515 3,082 926 5,480 8,404 18,18310,179 7,897 8,975 67,824
% Growth YoY -124% -303% -70% 492% 53% 116% -44% -22% 14%
Cash from Investing Activity -9,909 1,538 1,751 -891 -2,387 -4,286 -7,909-7,975 ### -4,750 -44,947
Cash from Financing Activity -2,285 652 -1,817 -4,713 -1,743 -6,244 -9,121-1,840 567 -4,204 -30,749
Net Cash Flow -5,982 675 3,015 -4,678 1,350 -2,126 1,153 364 -1,666 21 -7,872
CFO/Sales 5% -1% 2% 0% 2% 3% 8% 5% 4% 4%
CFO/Net Profit 844% -99% 199% 71% 207% 207% 358% 144% 98% 113%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 5,897 -1,727 2,718 361 4,873 7,467 17,027 8,541 6,659 8,151 59,968
Average FCF (3 Years) 7,784
FCF Growth YoY -129% -257% -87% 1251% 53% 128% -50% -22% 22%
FCF/Sales 4% -1% 2% 0% 2% 3% 7% 5% 3% 3%
FCF/Net Profit 801% -112% 176% 28% 184% 184% 335% 121% 83% 103%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth -9.2% 24.5% 39.8% 13.3% 8.3% -8.5% -20.9% 7.3%
PBT Growth 135.8% 1.3% -21.3% 114.2% 47.4% 24.7% 40.1% 6.3%
Net Profit Growth 108.9% 0.6% -15.2% 101.6% 53.7% 25.2% 38.8% 13.9%
Dividend Growth 100.0% 0.0% -21.4% 100.0% 54.5% 32.4% 24.9% 109.7%
Operating Cash Flow Growth -124.4% ### -70.0% 491.9% 53.3% 116.4% -44.0% -22.4%
Free Cash Flow Growth -129.3% ### -86.7% ### 53.2% 128.0% -49.8% -22.0%

Operating Margin 2.4% 2.1% 2.5% 1.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 5.9% 5.4%
PBT Margin 0.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 3.1% 5.5% 5.5%
Net Margin 0.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.6% 2.1% 3.7% 4.0%

Debtor Days 3.9 8.0 6.1 11.0 6.1 5.7 3.9 4.2 8.6
Inventory Turnover 19.6 10.1 9.9 13.3 14.4 13.6 16.5 13.7 10.2
Fixed Asset Turnover 11.2 8.9 9.5 12.8 14.4 13.7 11.7 8.1 6.4
Debt/Equity 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.8
Debt/Assets 44.1% 40.9% 33.3% 34.6% 35.2% 27.7% 18.5% 20.8% 24.8%
Interest Coverage (Times) 1.5 3.3 3.1 2.0 3.2 5.4 13.7 19.4 23.3
Return on Equity 6.1% 11.7% 11.0% 8.8% 15.9% 20.9% 22.6% 25.8% 26.6%
Return on Capital Employed 9.5% 9.6% 10.6% 9.7% 14.5% 18.4% 22.5% 25.4% 21.6%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 5,897 -1,727 2,718 361 4,873 7,467 ### 8,541 6,659
Mar/18
16.9%
1.4%
-1.5%
-3.1%
13.6%
22.4%

5.0%
4.7%
3.4%

8.0
11.3
5.5
0.7
22.9%
14.4
22.9%
20.8%
8,151
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
 7% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
30%
Check for a rising trend and
6% 25% Numbers > 20% long term a
5% has zero/marginal debt. Com
20%
4%
15%
3%
2% 10%
1% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Compare with a close competitor
5%
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

300,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
160%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
140% Compare grow
250,000
120%
200,000 100%
80%
150,000 60%
40%
100,000
20%
50,000 0%
-20% Jan/10 Jan/12
- -40%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

12,000 Profit Over Time Operating and

20,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
10,000 which are rising over tim
15,000
8,000
10,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
2,000 -
Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
- -5,000
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 6% 5%
PBT Margin 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 6% 5%
Net Margin 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 4%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 6% 12% 11% 9% 16% 21% 23% 26% 27%
ROCE 10% 10% 11% 10% 14% 18% 22% 25% 22%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth -9% 25% 40% 13% 8% -8% -21% 7% 17%
PBT Growth 136% 1% -21% 114% 47% 25% 40% 6% 1%
Net Profit Growth 109% 1% -15% 102% 54% 25% 39% 14% -1%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 134,063 121,765 151,639 211,973 240,116 260,075 238,087 188,405 202,211
PBT 1,003 2,365 2,395 1,884 4,036 5,949 7,416 10,391 11,043
Net Profit 736 1,538 1,547 1,311 2,643 4,061 5,085 7,056 8,039

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 6,212 -1,515 3,082 926 5,480 8,404 18,183 10,179 7,897
Free Cash Flow 5,897 -1,727 2,718 361 4,873 7,467 17,027 8,541 6,659
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
% Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0
0
0
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

 Mar/18
5%
5%
3%

Mar/18
23%
21%

Mar/18
236,313
11,198
7,919

Mar/18
8,975
8,151
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 91% 94% 93% 93% 93% 92% 89% 86% 90% 88%
Change in Inventory -1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% -2% 0% 3% 0%
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3%
Employee Cost 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Selling and Admin Cost 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1%
Other Expenses 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Operating Profit 5% -4% 0% 1% 1% 2% 7% 7% 0% 5%
Other Income 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Interest 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 6% 5% 5%
Tax 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Net Profit 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 4% 3%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Reserves 25% 23% 24% 22% 23% 26% 31% 35% 31% 32%
Borrowings 44% 41% 33% 35% 35% 28% 18% 21% 25% 23%
Other Liabilities 31% 35% 42% 43% 40% 46% 50% 43% 43% 43%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 25% 25% 28% 25% 25% 26% 29% 31% 34% 42%
Capital Work in Progress 4% 5% 2% 2% 4% 4% 11% 17% 12% 4%
Investments 38% 25% 21% 16% 18% 16% 17% 17% 16% 15%
Other Assets 33% 45% 49% 57% 54% 54% 43% 36% 38% 38%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 3% 5% 4% 10% 6% 6% 4% 3% 5% 5%
Inventory 14% 22% 27% 24% 25% 26% 20% 18% 21% 20%
Cash & Bank 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATIO

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 8,951 7,992 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 10,294 8,206 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 11,838 8,426 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 13,022 8,275 4 FY21
5 FY22 14,324 8,128 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 15,756 7,983 Sales 0% 6 FY23
7 FY24 16,544 7,484 PBT 23% 7 FY24
8 FY25 17,371 7,016 FCF 11% 8 FY25
9 FY26 18,240 6,577 9 FY26
10 FY27 19,152 6,166 10 FY27
10 191,517 61,663 10
Intrinsic Value 143,745 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 78,343 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -45% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
 Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

HARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
9,340 8,340 Year 4-6 15%
11,208 8,935 Year 7-10 10%
13,450 9,573 Discount Rate 12%
15,467 9,830
17,788 10,093
20,456 10,364
22,501 10,178
24,751 9,997
27,227 9,818
29,949 9,643
449,239 144,643
Intrinsic Value 247,242
Current Mkt. Cap. 78,343
Premium/(Discount) to IV -68%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name EUM CORPORATION LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 6,432.1 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 12.3 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 212,539 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 78,343 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
EUM CORPORATION LTD
Mar/18

6,432.1
8.5
24.5

370,406
78,343

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 7,784 ###

78,343
Years 1-5 6-10 226%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) 17,522

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 8,951 15% 7,992
2 10,294 15% 8,206
3 11,838 15% 8,426
4 13,613 15% 8,652
5 15,655 15% 8,883
6 17,534 12% 8,883
7 19,638 12% 8,883
8 21,995 12% 8,883
9 24,634 12% 8,883
10 27,590 12% 8,883

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 28,142
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 86,576
Terminal Value 90,610
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 78,343

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
ORATION LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 736 1,538 1,547 1,311 2,643 4,061 5,085
Net Profit Margin 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Return on Equity 6% 12% 11% 9% 16% 21% 23%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 24,596
Current P/E (x) 9.9
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 491,925
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 158,387
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 78,343

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
N LTD
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
7,056 8,039 7,919 30% 25%
4% 4% 3%
26% 27% 23%
 Intrinsic Value Range
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho ### ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham ### ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF ### understand this business?
Expected Return ###
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 78,343 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YOY 19% 13% 14% 25% 36% 31%
Expenses ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Operating Profit 1,381 3,316 2,212 1,233 3,533 3,207 3,722 3,875 2,419 737
Other Income 1,022 551 662 649 795 709 833 548 538 967
Depreciation 452 484 524 589 641 677 741 739 757 778
Interest 102 135 148 179 235 200 219 302 328 337
Profit before tax 1,849 3,249 2,203 1,114 3,453 3,038 3,594 3,382 1,873 590
PBT Margin 4% 6% 4% 2% 6% 5% 6% 5% 3% 1%
% Growth YOY 87% -6% 63% 204% -46% -81%
Tax 544 977 362 369 1,095 894 920 1,089 654 94
Net profit 1,305 2,272 1,842 745 2,357 2,144 2,674 2,293 1,219 495
% Growth YOY 81% -6% 45% 208% -48% -77%
OPM 3% 6% 4% 2% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3% 1%
COMPANY NAME BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 216.93
Face Value 10
Current Price 361.15
Market Capitalization 78342.56

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 134062.94 121764.71 151639.45 211972.97 240115.75 260074.99
Raw Material Cost 121804.74 115001.66 140835.5 197722.12 223309.09 240095.3
Change in Inventory -1565.39 3772.45 2056.05 601.6 1471.79 2030.3
Power and Fuel 67.17 237.12 475.89 716.08 904.92 1196.89
Other Mfr. Exp 775.26 838.11 870.31 1002.49 1151.38 1408.99
Employee Cost 1883.57 2139.63 2763.63 2261.07 2768.87 2896.35
Selling and admin 2767.2 3025.23 4006.83 4788.27 5402.27 6156.54
Other Expenses 1976.57 1700.83 1003.18 2153.58 1764.94 2208.11
Other Income 1021.57 2023.24 1427.16 1637.67 1500.96 1411.77
Depreciation 1075.53 1242.32 1655.4 1884.87 1926.1 2246.82
Interest 2166.37 1010.95 1117.03 1799.59 1825.24 1359.08
Profit before tax 1002.71 2364.55 2394.89 1884.17 4035.69 5948.98
Tax 266.81 826.93 848.21 572.9 1392.79 1888.1
Net profit 735.9 1537.62 1546.68 1311.27 2642.9 4060.88
Dividend Amount 253.08 506.16 506.16 397.69 795.39 1229.24

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 44692.72 53542.7 57036.48 57133.85 53330.9 60623.04
Expenses 43311.35 50226.23 54824.21 55900.76 49797.61 57416.3
Other Income 1022.34 551.05 662.39 648.53 794.7 708.61
Depreciation 452.38 483.61 523.84 589.2 640.6 677.43
Interest 102.41 134.85 147.51 178.86 234.81 199.91
Profit before tax 1848.92 3249.06 2203.31 1113.56 3452.58 3038.01
Tax 543.74 977.12 361.63 369 1095.18 894.27
Net profit 1305.18 2271.94 1841.68 744.56 2357.4 2143.74
Operating Profit 1381.37 3316.47 2212.27 1233.09 3533.29 3206.74

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 361.54 361.54 361.54 361.54 723.08 723.08
Reserves 11766.57 12725.17 13696.08 14552.32 15910.94 18735.68
Borrowings 21171.41 22195.2 18960.32 22993.69 23839.04 20321.56
Other Liabilities 14694.12 19034.63 23910.67 28603.96 27332.04 33560.87
Total 47993.64 54316.54 56928.61 66511.51 67805.1 73341.19
Net Block 11965.79 13669.35 15999.33 16612.38 16690.41 19039.51
Capital Work in Progress 2037.48 2517.75 972.39 1119.06 2419.74 3065.1
Investments 18078.38 13501.33 12037.06 10917.42 12103 11846.89
Other Assets 15911.99 24628.11 27919.83 37862.65 36591.95 39389.69
Total 47993.64 54316.54 56928.61 66511.51 67805.1 73341.19
Receivables 1425.67 2662.68 2532.65 6378.34 4025.13 4080.16
Inventory 6823.92 12028.86 15375.08 15948.06 16690.37 19071.13
Cash & Bank 441.55 342.36 379.03 978.85 2328.86 203.76
No. of Equity Shares 361542124 361542124 361542124 361542124 723084200 723084200
New Bonus Shares 84542100
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 6212.34 -1515.15 3081.87 925.84 5480.45 8404.11
Cash from Investing Activity -9908.75 1538.43 1750.5 -890.54 -2387.16 -4285.89
Cash from Financing Activity -2285.32 652.09 -1817 -4713.14 -1743.25 -6243.73
Net Cash Flow -5981.73 675.37 3015.37 -4677.84 1350.04 -2125.51

PRICE: 63.338889 84.143333 101.67316 113.6335 130.577 150.81474

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 189.23 189.23 189.23 189.23 216.93 216.93
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

238086.9 188404.64 202210.57 236313.1
211476.1 161835.44 181930.8 206930.18
-4513.32 -834.31 5577.61 -320.6
1736.12 1562.32 1309.36 1749.5
1881.77 6469.47 6786.42 7539.83
2085.6 2757.81 3429.46 3430.98
6707.56 1851.02 1906.95 2619.9
1371.76 1948.76 1559.6 1973.45
2199.96 1655.29 2564.39 2931.08
2516.02 1844.6 1891.32 2648.48
583.1 565.16 495.87 833.25
7415.51 10391.04 11042.79 11198.01
2331 3334.68 3003.49 3278.67
5084.51 7056.36 8039.3 7919.34
1626.93 2032.42 4261.56 4130.45

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

65239.31 71696.73 72291.82 79168.84
61517.75 67821.5 69872.38 78431.48
832.93 548.03 538.01 967.19
741.25 739.16 757.1 778.14
219.38 301.84 327.64 336.9
3593.86 3382.26 1872.71 589.51
920.22 1089 654 94.37
2673.64 2293.26 1218.71 495.14
3721.56 3875.23 2419.44 737.36

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 723.08 655.62 1311.25 1966.88
21744.4 26667.34 28881.32 32641.86
13097.6 15857.49 23159.21 23350.67
35349.42 32879.15 40111.28 44111.85
70914.5 76059.6 93463.06 102071.26
20315.06 23207.3 31437.31 42977.89
7665.68 12664.31 11622.52 4407.54
12391.14 12811.46 14601.45 15820.58
30542.62 27376.53 35801.78 38865.25
70914.5 76059.6 93463.06 102071.26
2561.14 2188.95 4758.18 5152.6
14457.85 13792.86 19798.01 20873.75
1360.2 2067.35 64.69 88.07
723084200 723084248 1446168496 2169252744
723084248 723084248
10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

18183.34 10179.21 7896.93 8974.67
-7909.12 -7975.48 -10129.68 -4749.52
-9121.19 -1839.92 566.56 -4203.77
1153.03 363.81 -1666.19 21.38

264.9065 311.197368 468.898947 407.05

216.93 216.93 216.93 216.93

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