Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Warning! Excel can be a wonde
deadly weapon if you wish t
Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1,136 Remember! Focus on decision
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 102.3
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 116,203

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 6.1% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've des
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -18.5% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) -194.8% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.2 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can co
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 12.1%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) -9.7
Latest P/E (x) -313.9
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be a
deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Equity Share Capital 34 34 34 68 102 102 102 102 102 102
Reserves 4,277 4,233 5,268 6,190 7,165 7,796 9,337 11,454 13,692 12,496
Borrowings 2,717 2,891 4,001 3,508 3,382 3,575 1,864 1,704 1,130 3,222
Other Liabilities 2,097 2,521 3,637 4,098 3,445 3,407 2,941 2,822 2,513 2,571
Total 9,125 9,679 12,940 13,864 14,094 14,880 14,244 16,082 17,437 18,392

Net Block 5,551 5,931 8,083 8,315 8,670 9,231 8,905 9,219 9,934 10,440
Capital Work in Progress 225 44 97 84 52 57 57 116 45 83
Investments 186 190 934 997 516 672 679 1,015 3,029 3,504
Other Assets 3,164 3,514 3,826 4,468 4,855 4,920 4,602 5,731 4,429 4,365
Total 9,125 9,679 12,940 13,864 14,094 14,880 14,244 16,082 17,437 18,392

Working Capital 1,067 994 189 370 1,411 1,513 1,662 2,909 1,916 1,794
Debtors 805 1,118 1,029 1,246 1,293 1,157 1,005 1,116 1,245 1,535
Inventory 1,072 1,307 1,413 1,578 1,559 1,703 1,716 2,130 1,537 1,271
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 35 48 41 46 46 43 33 33 34 40
Inventory Turnover 8 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 9 11
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4
Debt/Equity 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3
Return on Equity 23% 19% 25% 26% 32% 19% 18% 15% 12% -4%
Return on Capital Employed 19% 18% 20% 23% 22% 17% 20% 17% 16% 3%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Trailing
Sales 8,273 8,424 9,268 9,847 10,314 9,911 11,029 12,277 13,316 14,096 14,043
% Growth YOY 2% 10% 6% 5% -4% 11% 11% 8% 6%
Expenses 6,894 6,767 7,361 7,763 8,183 7,757 8,629 9,867 10,873 11,139 10,963
Material Cost (% of Sales) 46% 47% 46% 43% 43% 45% 45% 50% 49% 45% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 9% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 22% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 16% 15% 16% 19%
Operating Profit 1,379 1,657 1,907 2,084 2,132 2,154 2,399 2,409 2,443 2,957 3,081
Operating Profit Margin 17% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 20% 18% 21% 22%
Other Income 73 -262 76 283 362 32 23 78 114 -2,209 -2,112
Other Income as % of Sales 0.9% -3.1% 0.8% 2.9% 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% -15.7% -15.0%
Depreciation 91 101 142 156 170 197 204 210 236 241 203
Interest 112 128 154 173 238 228 138 122 188 310 316
Interest Coverage(Times) 12 10 12 13 10 9 16 19 12 2 2
Profit before tax (PBT) 1,249 1,167 1,687 2,039 2,085 1,760 2,080 2,155 2,133 198 450
% Growth YOY -7% 45% 21% 2% -16% 18% 4% -1% -91%
PBT Margin 15% 14% 18% 21% 20% 18% 19% 18% 16% 1% 3%
Tax 272 336 379 405 -256 264 360 372 430 759 820
Net profit 976 831 1,308 1,634 2,342 1,497 1,721 1,783 1,702 -561 -370
% Growth YOY -15% 57% 25% 43% -36% 15% 4% -5% -133%
Net Profit Margin 12% 10% 14% 17% 23% 15% 16% 15% 13% -4% -3%
EPS 9.6 8.1 12.8 16.0 22.9 14.6 16.8 17.4 16.6 -5.5 -3.6
% Growth YOY -15% 57% 25% 43% -36% 15% 4% -5% -133%
Price to earning 36.3 56.6 43.5 45.6 29.9 35.6 43.4 42.9 58.2 -228.4 -
Price 347 460 557 729 686 521 730 747 968 1,252 1,136
Dividend Payout 20.6% 23.7% 39.2% 41.7% 43.7% 54.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Market Cap 35,442 47,021 56,929 74,514 70,123 53,246 74,607 76,419 99,013 ###
Retained Earnings 775 634 796 953 1,319 679 1,721 1,783 1,702 -561
Buffett's $1 Test 9.4

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 6.1% 6.2% 6.4% 8.5%
PBT Growth -18.5% -26.4% -37.5% -54.3%
PBT Margin 16.0% 16.1% 14.3% 11.7%
Price to Earning 16.4 3.9 -9.7 -42.5
Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 1,027 847 1,860 1,723 1,729 1,588 2,030 1,451 2,151 2,070 16,475
% Growth YoY -17% 120% -7% 0% -8% 28% -29% 48% -4%
Cash from Investing Activity -1,236 -622 -2,243 -336 274 -552 -292 -844 -1,754 -3,435 -11,041
Cash from Financing Activity -12 -202 665 -1,384 -2,039 -1,295 -1,816 -380 -794 1,406 -5,852
Net Cash Flow -221 23 282 3 -36 -259 -79 227 -398 41 -417
CFO/Sales 12% 10% 20% 18% 17% 16% 18% 12% 16% 15%
CFO/Net Profit 105% 102% 142% 105% 74% 106% 118% 81% 126% -369%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 712 636 1,496 1,158 1,122 651 874 -187 913 1,246 8,620
Average FCF (3 Years) 657
FCF Growth YoY -11% 135% -23% -3% -42% 34% -121% -587% 37%
FCF/Sales 9% 8% 16% 12% 11% 7% 8% -2% 7% 9%
FCF/Net Profit 78% 77% 115% 71% 48% 44% 51% -11% 54% -222%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Sales Growth 1.8% 10.0% 6.3% 4.7% -3.9% 11.3% 11.3% 8.5%
PBT Growth -6.6% 44.6% 20.8% 2.3% -15.6% 18.2% 3.6% -1.0%
Net Profit Growth -14.9% 57.5% 24.9% 43.3% -36.1% 15.0% 3.6% -4.5%
Dividend Growth 4.6% 160.9% 33.4% 50.0% -20.0% ### #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Operating Cash Flow Growth -17.5% 119.5% -7.4% 0.3% -8.1% 27.8% -28.5% 48.3%
Free Cash Flow Growth -10.7% 135.3% -22.6% -3.2% -42.0% 34.2% ### ###

Operating Margin 16.7% 19.7% 20.6% 21.2% 20.7% 21.7% 21.8% 19.6% 18.3%
PBT Margin 15.1% 13.8% 18.2% 20.7% 20.2% 17.8% 18.9% 17.6% 16.0%
Net Margin 11.8% 9.9% 14.1% 16.6% 22.7% 15.1% 15.6% 14.5% 12.8%

Debtor Days 35.5 48.4 40.5 46.2 45.8 42.6 33.2 33.2 34.1
Inventory Turnover 7.7 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.6 5.8 6.4 5.8 8.7
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3
Debt/Equity 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Debt/Assets 29.8% 29.9% 30.9% 25.3% 24.0% 24.0% 13.1% 10.6% 6.5%
Interest Coverage (Times) 12.1 10.1 11.9 12.8 9.8 8.7 16.1 18.6 12.3
Return on Equity 22.7% 19.5% 24.7% 26.1% 32.2% 18.9% 18.2% 15.4% 12.3%
Return on Capital Employed 19.4% 18.1% 19.8% 22.7% 21.8% 17.3% 19.6% 17.2% 15.6%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 712 636 1,496 1,158 1,122 651 874 -187 913
Mar/24
5.9%
-90.7%
###
#DIV/0!
-3.8%
36.5%

21.0%
1.4%
-4.0%

39.8
11.1
1.4
0.3
17.5%
1.6
-4.4%
3.2%
1,246
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
 25% Profit Margin 40% Capital Allo
Check for a rising trend
20%
30% Numbers > 20% long te
15% company has zero/marg
10% 20% competitor
5% 10%
0%
-5% Check for a rising trend and/or 0%
-15 -16
consistency. -17
Compare-18 with-19 a close
-2
0
-2
1
-2
2
-2
3
-2
4
5
n n
-10%Ja competitor n n n n n n n n -10% -1 -16 -17 -18
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

16,000 Revenue 100% Revenue and P

Check for a rising trend. Check for a
14,000 Compare gr
12,000 50% tor.

10,000 0%
8,000
16 17 18 19
6,000 -50% n- n- n- n-
Ja Ja Ja Ja
4,000
-100%
2,000
- -150%
-15 -16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 Revenue Grow
n n n n n n n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Net Profit Gro

3,000 Profit Over Time Operating an

2,500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive nu
2,000 and which are rising o
2,000 time.
1,500
1,000 1,000
500
-
-
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
-1,000 n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- -500 -15 -16 -17 -18
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja J

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash F

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Operating Margin 17% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 20% 18%
PBT Margin 15% 14% 18% 21% 20% 18% 19% 18% 16%
Net Margin 12% 10% 14% 17% 23% 15% 16% 15% 13%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
ROE 23% 19% 25% 26% 32% 19% 18% 15% 12%
ROCE 19% 18% 20% 23% 22% 17% 20% 17% 16%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24
Revenue Growth 2% 10% 6% 5% -4% 11% 11% 8% 6%
PBT Growth -7% 45% 21% 2% -16% 18% 4% -1% -91%
Net Profit Growth -15% 57% 25% 43% -36% 15% 4% -5% -133%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Revenue 8,273 8,424 9,268 9,847 10,314 9,911 11,029 12,277 13,316
PBT 1,249 1,167 1,687 2,039 2,085 1,760 2,080 2,155 2,133
Net Profit 976 831 1,308 1,634 2,342 1,497 1,721 1,783 1,702

Cash Flows
Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Operating Cash Flow 1,027 847 1,860 1,723 1,729 1,588 2,030 1,451 2,151
Free Cash Flow 712 636 1,496 1,158 1,122 651 874 -187 913
 Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the
company has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close Note: Please ignore the dates
competitor on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year

-15 -16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24
an Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competi-
tor.

-16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24

an Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n
Ja
n

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free

0 Check Cash Flow
for positive numbers
0 and which are rising over
time.
0
0
0

0 -15 -16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24
n n n n n n n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/24
21%
1%
-4%

Mar/24
-4%
3%

Mar/24
14,096
198
-561

Mar/24
2,070
1,246
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 46% 47% 46% 43% 43% 45% 45% 50% 49% 45%
Change in Inventory 0% 1% 1% -1% -1% 2% 0% 1% -2% 0%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Employee Cost 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 9%
Selling and Admin Cost 22% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 16% 15% 16% 19%
Other Expenses 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Operating Profit 18% 17% 18% 22% 24% 18% 21% 19% 22% 21%
Other Income 1% -3% 1% 3% 4% 0% 0% 1% 1% -16%
Depreciation 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Interest 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Profit Before Tax 15% 14% 18% 21% 20% 18% 19% 18% 16% 1%
Tax 3% 4% 4% 4% -2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5%
Net Profit 11% 10% 14% 17% 23% 15% 16% 15% 13% -4%
Dividend Amount 2% 2% 6% 7% 10% 8% 0% 0% 0% 11%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 47% 44% 41% 45% 51% 52% 66% 71% 79% 68%
Borrowings 30% 30% 31% 25% 24% 24% 13% 11% 6% 18%
Other Liabilities 23% 26% 28% 30% 24% 23% 21% 18% 14% 14%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 61% 61% 62% 60% 62% 62% 63% 57% 57% 57%
Capital Work in Progress 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Investments 2% 2% 7% 7% 4% 5% 5% 6% 17% 19%
Other Assets 35% 36% 30% 32% 34% 33% 32% 36% 25% 24%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 9% 12% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8%
Inventory 12% 14% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 13% 9% 7%
Cash & Bank 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 2% 3%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCT

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 756 675 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 869 693 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 999 711 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 1,099 699 4 FY21
5 FY22 1,209 686 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 1,330 674 Sales 6% 6 FY23
7 FY24 1,396 632 PBT -38% 7 FY24
8 FY25 1,466 592 FCF 2% 8 FY25
9 FY26 1,540 555 9 FY26
10 FY27 1,617 520 10 FY27
10 16,166 5,205 10
Intrinsic Value 17,470 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 116,203 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 565% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
788 704 Year 4-6 15%
946 754 Year 7-10 10%
1,135 808 Discount Rate 12%
1,306 830
1,501 852
1,727 875
1,899 859
2,089 844
2,298 829
2,528 814
37,920 12,209
Intrinsic Value 26,206
Current Mkt. Cap. 116,203
Premium/(Discount) to IV 343%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name SUMER PRODUCTS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/24 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,228.5 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (87.6) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) (204,714) Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 116,203 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
SUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Mar/24

1,228.5
8.5
(175.1)

(419,870)
116,203

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 657 14,956

###
Years 1-5 6-10 13%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (2,606)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 756 15% 675
2 869 15% 693
3 999 15% 711
4 1,149 15% 730
5 1,321 15% 750
6 1,480 12% 750
7 1,658 12% 750
8 1,857 12% 750
9 2,079 12% 750
10 2,329 12% 750

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 2,375
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 7,308
Terminal Value 7,648
Total PV of Cash Flows 14,956
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
UCTS LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Particulars Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 907 828 1,304 1,634 2,342 1,497 1,721
Net Profit Margin 11% 10% 14% 17% 23% 15% 16%
Return on Equity 23% 19% 25% 26% 32% 19% 18%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) (1,741)
Current P/E (x) (207.3)
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) (34,820)
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) (11,211)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 116,203

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
LTD
Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,783 1,702 -561 -195% -175%
15% 13% -4%
15% 12% -4%
 Intrinsic Value Range
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho 17,470 26,206 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham ### ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
understand this business?
DCF 14,956
Expected Return -11,211 Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 116,203 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
Explanation: Considering the above the-envelope".
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
if the current market cap is within this IV decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ve answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24
Sales 3,125 3,392 3,599 3,200 3,449 3,602 3,660 3,386 3,332 3,666
% Growth YOY 10% 6% 2% 6% -3% 2%
Expenses 2,604 2,850 2,872 2,559 2,806 2,898 2,819 2,630 2,607 2,907
Operating Profit 521 542 727 641 643 704 841 756 724 760
Other Income 26 17 36 36 -13 53 63 -2,312 57 80
Depreciation 57 53 57 69 76 61 54 50 49 50
Interest 35 48 40 53 74 77 67 78 88 83
Profit before tax 454 458 665 556 480 619 783 -1,684 644 707
PBT Margin 15% 13% 18% 17% 14% 17% 21% -50% 19% 19%
% Growth YOY 6% 35% 18% -403% 34% 14%
Tax 109 99 119 103 161 187 202 209 193 215
Net profit 345 359 546 452 319 433 581 -1,893 451 491
% Growth YOY -8% 21% 6% -519% 41% 14%
OPM 17% 16% 20% 20% 19% 20% 23% 22% 22% 21%
COMPANY NAME GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 102.30
Face Value 1
Current Price 1135.95
Market Capitalization 116203.42

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Sales 8273.15 8423.88 9267.91 9847.43 10314.34 9910.8
Raw Material Cost 3,806.48 3,959.14 4,265.85 4,218.36 4,399.79 4,434.83
Change in Inventory -35.04 91.90 133.33 -56.00 -154.54 173.15
Power and Fuel 109.92 109.99 89.02 101.11 119.29 118.29
Other Mfr. Exp 223.97 236.23 302.85 318.75 329.8 378.69
Employee Cost 776.95 944.13 988.46 1057.41 1068.41 1018.82
Selling and admin 1818.85 1464.98 1649.39 1775.76 1888.86 1770.13
Other Expenses 122.99 143.93 198.96 235.64 222.08 209.44
Other Income 73.01 -262.04 76.18 283.28 361.95 32.06
Depreciation 90.78 100.63 141.57 155.68 169.98 197.28
Interest 112.46 128.04 154.19 173.12 238.21 228.13
Profit before tax 1248.72 1166.67 1687.13 2038.88 2085.33 1760.4
Tax 272.29 336.05 379.16 404.7 -256.2 263.82
Net profit 907.12 827.61 1304.08 1634.18 2341.53 1496.58
Dividend Amount 187.22 195.79 510.9 681.3 1022.2 817.84

Quarters
Report Date Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23
Sales 3124.97 3391.92 3598.92 3200.16 3448.91 3601.95
Expenses 2604.17 2849.81 2872.28 2559.29 2806.07 2897.78
Other Income 25.69 17.2 35.71 35.74 -12.67 53.39
Depreciation 57.06 53.32 57.32 68.59 76.29 60.88
Interest 35.06 48.25 39.92 52.51 74.00 77.31
Profit before tax 454.37 457.74 665.11 555.51 479.88 619.37
Tax 109.25 98.88 118.77 103.37 161.06 186.6
Net profit 345.12 358.86 546.34 452.14 318.82 432.77
Operating Profit 520.8 542.11 726.64 640.87 642.84 704.17

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Equity Share Capital 34.04 34.05 34.06 68.13 102.22 102.23
Reserves 4276.65 4232.91 5267.89 6190.18 7164.7 7796.13
Borrowings 2,717.15 2,891.12 4,000.93 3,507.57 3,382.05 3,574.97
Other Liabilities 2097.18 2520.66 3637.37 4097.89 3444.58 3406.95
Total 9125.02 9678.74 12940.25 13863.77 14093.55 14880.28
Net Block 5550.95 5931.41 8082.89 8315 8670.26 9231.4
Capital Work in Progress 224.61 43.66 97.43 83.88 52.06 57.04
Investments 185.69 189.50 933.54 997.28 515.98 671.98
Other Assets 3163.77 3514.17 3826.39 4467.61 4855.25 4919.86
Total 9125.02 9678.74 12940.25 13863.77 14093.55 14880.28
Receivables 804.58 1118.01 1028.74 1245.5 1292.9 1157.25
Inventory 1,071.71 1,306.98 1,412.50 1,577.72 1,558.59 1,703.12
Cash & Bank 894.22 753.79 912.66 960.21 894.72 770.16
No. of Equity Shares 340446901 340533823 340600816 681329518 1.022E+09 1.022E+09
New Bonus Shares ### ###
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Cash from Operating Activity 1026.73 847.37 1860.22 1723.35 1728.85 1588.11
Cash from Investing Activity -1235.86 -621.59 -2243.25 -336.37 274.07 -552.12
Cash from Financing Activity -12.04 -202.47 664.65 -1384.01 -2038.73 -1295.33
Net Cash Flow -221.17 23.31 281.62 2.97 -35.81 -259.34

PRICE: 346.99 460.27 557.14 729.1 686 520.85

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 102.14 102.16 102.18 102.20 102.22 102.23
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

11028.62 12276.5 13315.97 14096.11
4,971.77 6,136.63 6,489.85 6,333.43
42.35 61.54 -212.94 13.13
106.23 133.49 154.63 150.85
397.25 430.3 438.91 420.43
1123.34 1104.14 1111.48 1249.34
1808.73 1836.49 2144.44 2639.66
264.39 287.81 320.52 358.21
22.6 78.27 114.3 -2208.56
203.85 209.93 236.29 240.96
137.65 122.26 188.48 309.57
2080.36 2155.26 2132.73 198.23
359.54 371.87 430.27 758.78
1720.82 1783.39 1702.46 -560.55
1534.2

Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24

3659.64 3385.61 3331.58 3666.33
2818.92 2629.89 2607.15 2906.69
63.19 -2311.81 56.81 80.21
53.88 49.91 49.46 50.1
66.59 78.47 87.75 83.09
783.44 -1684.47 644.03 706.66
202.38 208.74 193.34 215.35
581.06 -1893.21 450.69 491.31
840.72 755.72 724.43 759.64

Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

102.25 102.26 102.27 102.28
9336.65 11453.67 13691.96 12496.29
1,863.97 1,704.34 1,129.58 3,222.20
 2940.92 2821.85 2513.45 2571.31
14243.79 16082.12 17437.26 18392.08
8904.77 9219.3 9933.66 10440.24
57.43 116.44 45.42 83.36
679.1 1015.43 3028.98 3503.67
4602.49 5730.95 4429.2 4364.81
14243.79 16082.12 17437.26 18392.08
1004.5 1116.32 1245.28 1535.37
1,716.25 2,129.85 1,537.15 1,270.92
672.21 1107.77 390.72 546.94
1.022E+09 1022581079 1022695318 1022820329

1 1 1 1

Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

2029.63 1450.57 2150.65 2069.95
-292.15 -844.32 -1754.46 -3435.01
-1816.22 -379.52 -794.31 1406.34
-78.74 226.73 -398.12 41.28

729.65 747.3 968.15 1251.8

102.25 102.26 102.27 102.28

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