Illustrative LBO Analysis Model
Illustrative LBO Analysis Model
x   Transaction Assumptions
    ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
CIRC On
x   PF Income Statement
    ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
    Fiscal Year Ending December 31,                           2015A        2016A        2017E           2018E          2019E
    Revenue                                                         $327      $342           $359            $381          $407
       % Growth                                                               4.6%           5.0%            6.0%          7.0%
    Memo:
    Revenue Growth (%)                                                4.6%       5.0%       6.0%       7.0%
    COGS (% of Sales)                                     40.0%      40.0%      40.0%      40.0%      40.0%
    EBITDA Margin (%)                                     26.0%      26.3%      26.3%      26.3%      26.3%
    D&A (% of Sales)                                       4.6%       5.0%       5.0%       5.0%       5.0%
    CapEx (% of Sales)                                     5.2%       5.0%       5.0%       5.0%       5.0%
x   PF Working Capital
    ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E
    Memo:
    Sales                                                  $327       $342       $359       $381       $407
    COGS                                                    131        137        144        152        163
                               Days
    Key Assumptions             360
    Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)                                      94.7       94.7       94.7       94.7
    Days Inventory Held (DIH)                                        118.4      118.4      118.4      118.4
    Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)                                   115.8      115.8      115.8      115.8
    Cash Conversion Cycle                                             97.4       97.4       97.4       97.4
    Calculated NWC
    Net Accounts Receivable                                            $90        $95       $100       $107
    Inventory                                                           45         47         50         54
    Other Current Assets                                                 7          7          8          8
    Current Assets                                                    $142       $149       $158       $169
x   PF Balance Sheet
    ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
    Fiscal Year Ending December 31,                     2016A      PF 2016     2017E      2018E      2019E
    Assets
    Cash                                                     $5          $5         $5         $5         $5
    Net Accounts Receivable                                  90          90         95        100        107
    Inventory                                                45          45         47         50         54
    Other Current Assets                                      7           7          7          8          8
    Total Current Assets                                   $147        $147       $154       $163       $174
    Net PP&E                                                 78          78         78         78         78
    Goodwill                                                 20         670        670        670        670
    Other Noncurrent Assets                                   6          17         15         14         12
    Total Assets                                           $251        $912       $918       $925       $935
    Fiscal Year Ending December 31,                     2015A      2016A       2017E      2018E      2019E
    Cash from Operating Activities
    Net Income                                                                     $27        $29        $33
    ( + ) D&A                                                                       18         19         20
    ( + ) Noncash Interest Expense                                                  10         11         12
    ( + / - ) Change in NWC                                                         (3)        (4)        (5)
    Cash from Operating Activities                                                 $52        $56        $61
    ( - ) CapEx                                             (17)        (17)       (18)       (19)       (20)
    Levered Free Cash Flow                                                         $34        $37        $40
    Memo:
    Average Cash Balance                                                    $5           $5           $5
    Cash Interest Income                       0.250%                        0            0            0
x   PF Debt Schedule
    ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
    Memo:
    Undrawn Revolver Commitment                $100         $100       $100         $100         $100
    Mandatory Amortization
    Revolver                                                              --           --           --
    Term Loan B                                                          (3)          (3)          (3)
    Senior Notes                                                          --           --           --
    Subordinated Notes                                                    --           --           --
    Total                                                               ($3)         ($3)         ($3)
    Optional Prepayment
    Revolver                                                              --           --           --
    Term Loan B                                                         (31)         (34)         (38)
    Senior Notes                                                          --           --           --
    Subordinated Notes                                                    --           --           --
    Total                                                              ($31)        ($34)        ($38)
x   PF Interest Expense
    ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
    Debt Balance
    Undrawn Revolver                                                   $100          $100         $100
    Revolver                                                              --            --           --
    Term Loan B                                                         258           222          184
    Senior Notes                                                        225           225          225
    Subordinated Notes                                                  104           114          124
    Interest Expense
    Undrawn Revolver                                                     $0            $0           $0
    Revolver                                                              --            --           --
    Term Loan B                                                           9             9            8
    Senior Notes                                                         16            16           16
    Subordinated Notes                                                    9            10           11
    Total                                                               $34           $35          $35
    Outstanding Debt
    Senior Secured Debt                                     $275       $241       $204       $164
    Senior Debt                                              500        466        429        389
    Total Debt                                               600        575        548        518
    Line Items
    Adj. EBITDA                                              $90        $95       $100       $107
    Cash Interest Expense                                     25         25         25         24
    CapEx                                                     17         18         19         20
    Leverage
    Senior Secured Debt / Adj. EBITDA                        3.1x       2.5x       2.0x       1.5x
    Senior Debt / Adj. EBITDA                                5.6        4.9        4.3        3.6
    Total Debt / Adj. EBITDA                                 6.7        6.1        5.5        4.8
    Interest Coverage
    Adj. EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense                      3.6x       3.8x       4.0x       4.4x
    Adj. EBITDA - CapEx / Cash Interest Expense              2.9        3.1        3.2        3.6
x   Illustrative Returns
    ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified)
    Enterprise Value
    (Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA)
MoIC                                     Investment
(Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA)      $236
IRR
(Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA)                Years:   1 yr         2 yr       3 yr
                                                      $           Leverage              Fees - $
                      Revolver                               --                                 $1
   $810               Term Loan B                          275      3.1x                         3
   (231)              Senior Secured Debt                 $275      3.1x
     91               Senior Notes                         225      2.5x                        5
   $670               Senior Debt                         $500      5.6x
                      Subordinated Notes                   100      1.1x                        3
                      Total                               $600      6.7x                      $11
        1
        1
     $5         $5         $5         $5         $5
    114        119        124        129        134
     57         60         62         65         67
      9          9         10         10         10
   $184       $193       $201       $209       $217
     78         78         78         78         78
    670        670        670        670        670
     11         10          8          7          7
   $943       $951       $957       $964       $971
     $5         $5         $5         $5         $5
     34         38         42         47         51
     (5)        (5)        (5)        (5)        (5)
    $34        $38        $42        $47        $51
    ($3)         ($3)         ($3)         ($3)         ($3)
    (31)         (35)         (40)         (44)         (48)
        $5           $5           $5           $5           $5
        $5           $5           $5           $5           $5
        $5           $5           $5           $5           $5
         0            0            0            0            0
      --           --           --           --           --
    130           92           49            3            --
    225          225          225          225          177
    129          129          129          129          129
   $484         $446         $403         $357         $306
  80.7%        74.3%        67.2%        59.5%        50.9%
     --           --           --           --           --
   1.0%         1.0%         1.0%         1.0%         1.0%
     --           --           --           --           --
     --           --           --           --           --
      --           --           --           --           --
     (3)          (3)          (3)          (3)          (3)
      --           --           --           --           --
      --           --           --           --           --
    ($3)         ($3)         ($3)         ($3)         ($3)
      --           --           --           --           --
    (31)         (35)         (40)         (44)          (0)
      --           --           --           --         (48)
      --           --           --           --           --
   ($31)        ($35)        ($40)        ($44)        ($48)
2020E         2021E         2022E         2023E         2024E
     $0            $0            $0            $0            $0
      --            --            --            --            --
      8             6             4             2             0
     16            16            16            16            14
     11            11            11            11            11
    $35           $33           $31           $29           $25
         --            --            --            --            --
         --            --            --            --            --
         --            --            --            --            --
        $0            $0             --            --            --
         1             1             1             0             --
         1             1             1             1             1
         0             0             0             0             0
        $1            $1            $1            $1            $1
         --            --            --            --            --
         1             1             1             1             1
        $1            $1            $1            $1            $1
2020E      2021E      2022E      2023E      2024E
4 yr 5 yr 6 yr 7 yr 8 yr
                            $119
                          $1,193
                            (441)
                            $752