Advance Monthly Sales For Retail and Food Services, February 2022
Advance Monthly Sales For Retail and Food Services, February 2022
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, FEBRUARY 2022
Release Number: CB22-41
Intention to Revise: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2020 Annual
Retail Trade Survey and the Service Annual Survey. Revised not adjusted estimates and corresponding
adjusted estimates are scheduled for release on April 25, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
March 16, 2022 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following advance estimates of U.S. retail and
food services sales for February 2022:
EXPLANATORY NOTES
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services
sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,500 retail and food
services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of
over three million retail and food services firms.
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide
an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the
United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,500
employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Advance sales estimates are
computed using a link relative estimator. For each detailed industry, we compute a ratio of current-to-
previous month weighted sales using data from units for which we have obtained usable responses for
both the current and previous month. For each detailed industry, the advance total sales estimates for the
current month is computed by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous
month (derived from the larger MRTS) at the appropriate industry level. Total estimates for broader
industries are computed as the sum of the detailed industry estimates. The link relative estimate is used
because imputation is not performed for most nonrespondents in MARTS. For a limited number of
nonresponding companies that have influential effects on the estimates, sales may be estimated based on
historical performance of that company. The monthly estimates are benchmarked to the annual survey
estimates from the Annual Retail Trade Survey once available. The estimates are adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be
found on the Census Bureau website at: <www.census.gov/retail>.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error
and nonsampling error.
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a
complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error
occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors
and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling
variation.
Data Inquiries                                                                                      Media Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch                                     Public Information Office
301-763-2713                                                                                          301-763-3030
eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov                                                             pio@census.gov
The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent
confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated
standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.753 x 0.9 percent or ±1.6 percent,
and the 90 percent confidence interval is –0.4 percent to +2.8 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one
does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is
different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in
the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated
coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.753 x CV x (the
estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report
incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from
the estimates.
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey
estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of
retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response,
coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs
quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Weather Information
For information on the impact of weather events on the compilation of this report, please see the
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on our website at:
<www.census.gov/retail/marts_weather_faqs.html>
RESOURCES
The Rest of the Consumer Spending Story
Retail and services together represent what’s commonly referred to as consumer spending. Quarterly
Services Survey (QSS) revenue comprises roughly 2/3 of the personal consumption expenditures
component of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The fourth quarter 2021 Quarterly Services Report was released on March 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM. Learn
about historical revenue trends for certain industries going back 15 years and other data, such as in-
patient days and discharges for hospitals, by visiting <https://www.census.gov/services/index.html>
Data Inquiries                                                                                          Media Inquiries
Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch                                         Public Information Office
301-763-2713                                                                                              301-763-3030
eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov                                                                 pio@census.gov
API
The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new
users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever
before. <www.census.gov/developers/>
(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
   (S)   Estimate does not meet publication standards because of high sampling variability (coefficient of variation is greater than 30%), poor response quality                            
          (total quantity response rate is less than 50%), or other concerns about the estimate's quality.
   (1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see <https://www.census.gov/naics/>.
   (2)   Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment 
          uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X‐13ARIMA‐SEATS program.  The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
          adjusted estimates shown in this table.  Year‐to‐date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated.  Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
          on the Internet at <http://www.census.gov/retail>.
   (3)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.   
          All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
   (4)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),   
          clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book  (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).
   Source:   U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, March 16, 2022. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability.  Additional information on 
               confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at
               <www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>.
Table 2.  Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,  Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 and administrative records.)
                                                                                                                       Percent Change1
                                                                                                                                                                  Dec. 2021
                                                                            Feb. 2022 Advance                       Jan. 2022 Preliminary                         through
      NAICS                        Kind of Business                                from ‐‐                                   from ‐‐                         Feb. 2022 from ‐‐
      code                                                                                                                                              Sep. 2021        Dec. 2020
                                                                       Jan. 2022             Feb. 2021           Dec. 2021             Jan. 2021         through          through
                                                                          (p)                   (r)                 (r)                   (r)           Nov. 2021        Feb. 2021
                   Retail & food services, 
                     total ………………………………..…………..……                          0.3                 17.6                 4.9                  14.0              1.7                16.0
                     Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) …..               0.2                 17.7                 4.4                  14.3              1.0                16.8
                     Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………                ‐0.2                16.1                 5.5                  12.5              1.4                14.3
                     Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts &                     
                        gasoline stations) ……………………….………                   ‐0.4
                                                                                               15.8                 5.2                  12.3              0.6                14.7
                        Retail ………………………..………..…………..                      0.0
                                                                                               15.9                 5.7                  12.6              1.9                14.1
441                Motor vehicle & parts dealers ………………                    0.8                 17.2                 6.9                  12.9              4.4                13.2
4411, 4412                Auto & other motor veh. dealers …                0.9
                                                                                               17.0                 7.3                  12.5              4.3                12.7
442                Furniture & home furn. stores ………………                    ‐1.0
                                                                                                7.4                 7.5                   2.8              ‐1.9               6.3
443                Electronics & appliance stores …….………                   ‐0.6
                                                                                                2.6                 2.1                  ‐2.9              ‐9.6               3.2
444                Building material & garden eq. &                          
                     supplies dealers…………………………………                         0.9
                                                                                               14.8                 2.7                  9.2               6.0                12.2    
445                Food & beverage stores…………………………                        ‐0.5                 7.9                 1.0                   7.9              1.0                8.2
4451                      Grocery stores …………………….………….                    ‐0.8
                                                                                                8.4                 0.9                   8.6              1.0                8.7
446                Health & personal care stores ………………                    ‐1.8
                                                                                                8.9                 0.2                   8.8              1.1                9.1
447                Gasoline stations ……………………..…………                         5.3
                                                                                               36.4                 ‐1.7                 34.2              4.2                37.9
448                Clothing & clothing accessories  
                     stores ……………………….……………………..…                          1.1
                                                                                               30.6                 1.4                  21.4              ‐1.6               26.1
451                Sporting goods, hobby, musical                            
                     instrument, & book stores …………………                     1.7
                                                                                               11.7                 ‐1.3                  2.8              ‐5.1               9.8
452                General merchandise stores…………………                       ‐0.2                12.8                 4.5                   6.3              ‐1.2               10.3
4521                      Department stores ……………………….                      1.6
                                                                                               22.8                 9.8                  11.9              ‐3.5               18.7
453                Miscellaneous store retailers ……….………                    1.9
                                                                                               25.4                 2.1                  19.1              2.7                20.4
454                Nonstore retailers …………………….…………                        ‐3.7
                                                                                               13.8                 20.6                 14.4              1.7                13.0
722                Food services & drinking places …………..                  2.5                 33.0                 ‐1.0                 26.6              0.2                33.8
(p)  Preliminary estimate         (r)   Revised estimate                                                      
(1)  Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided  in Table 1 of this report.
Source:  U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, March 16, 2022. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability.  
            Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at  
            <www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>.
Table 3.   Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability and Revision to Advance Estimates Feb. 2022
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey and Monthly Retail Trade Survey)
                                                                                                         Median standard error                                  Revision for month‐
                                                                           Median                             Percent change                                    to‐month change
   NAICS Code                       Kind of Business                       CV               Previous Mo.         Previous Qtr.        Current Mo.                            Median
                                                                         Current Mo.             to                   to                to same              Average         absolute
                                                                             (%)            Current Mo.          Current Qtr.         Mo. Last Yr.           revision        revision
                      Retail & food services, 
                        total ………………..…………………………………                           0.8                  0.3                 0.2                 0.5                  0.2             0.4
                        Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ………               0.9                  0.2                 0.2                 0.4                  0.1             0.3
                        Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………                0.8                  0.3                 0.2                 0.5                  0.1             0.4
                        Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts &                    
                           gasoline stations) ………………………………                    0.9                  0.3                 0.2                 0.5                  0.1             0.3
                        Retail, total …..……………………………………                       0.7                  0.2                 0.2                 0.4                  0.1             0.6
441                   Motor vehicle & parts dealers ………………                    1.5                  0.8                 0.5                 1.3                  0.3             0.6
4411, 4412                Auto & other motor veh. dealers …………                1.6                  0.9                 0.5                 1.4                  0.3             0.8
442                   Furniture & home furn. stores………………                     2.9                  1.0                 0.7                 1.6                  0.3             1.4
443                   Electronics & appliance stores ………………                   1.8                  0.6                 0.4                 1.0                 ‐0.3             1.2
444                   Building material & garden eq. &                          
                        supplies dealers……………………………………                        2.4                  0.6                 0.6                 1.3                  0.2             0.3
445                   Food & beverage stores…………………………                        0.6                  0.2                 0.2                 0.6                  0.0             0.2
4451                         Grocery stores ……………………………….                     0.7                  0.1                 0.2                 0.6                  0.0             0.3
446                   Health & personal care stores ………………                    3.7                  0.7                 0.4                 1.8                  0.3             0.9
447                   Gasoline stations …………………………………                         1.1                  0.4                 0.4                 1.0                  0.4             0.5
448                   Clothing & clothing accessories                           
                        stores …………………………………………………                            2.1                  0.8                 0.7                 2.3                  1.0             0.8
451                   Sporting goods, hobby, musical                            
                        instrument, & book stores ………………..…                   2.7                  0.7                 0.9                 1.6                  0.1             0.8
452                   General merchandise stores…………………                       1.1                  0.1                 0.1                 0.2                  0.3             0.2
4521                         Department stores ……………………………                    0.0                  0.0                 0.0                 0.0                  0.2             0.2
453                   Miscellaneous store retailers ………………                    4.8                  2.6                 1.6                 4.8                  0.2             1.1
454                   Nonstore retailers …………………………………                        1.5                  0.4                 0.3                 0.9                 ‐0.3             1.4
722                   Food services & drinking places ……………                   3.7                  1.1                 0.8                 2.6                  0.3             0.3
(1)  Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading day variation.  Medians are based
       on estimates for the most recent 12 months. 
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance‐to‐preliminary and preliminary‐to‐final estimates of month‐to‐month change for the
      same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample.  The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most
      recent 12 months.
Source:  U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, March 16, 2022. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, 
          nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at <www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>.