GIEWS Country Brief
Ukraine
Reference Date: 13-July-2023
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Planting of 2023 spring crops completed, amid
number of war-induced challenges
Total cereal production in 2023 forecast over
30 percent below five-year average level
Export volumes remain below pre-war levels
About 17.6 million people in need of humanitarian
assistance
Planting of 2023 spring crops completed, amid
number of war-induced challenges
Planting of the 2023 winter crops was completed by
mid-November. About 4.1 million hectares were planted with
winter wheat in areas under government control. In 2021, before
the start of the war, about 6.1 million hectares were planted with
winter wheat in the whole country.
The 2023 spring crops, mostly maize and sunflower, were
planted by late June and area planted in areas under government
control is estimated slightly above 5.6 million hectares, 5 percent
below the previous year. The 2023 maize crop, the economically
most significant grain, was planted on about 4 million hectares,
compared to 4.2 million hectares planted in 2022. Some land was
switched from cereals to more profitable oilseeds.
Weather conditions have been generally conducive to crop
development. However, unlike in 2022, when farmers still had
financial reserves or purchased inputs before the start of the war,
2023 agricultural activities have been hampered by generally low
liquidity of farmers. Although no major shortages of inputs are
reported, low domestic output prices are constraining the
capacity of many farmers to purchase adequate quantities of
inputs. In mid-September 2022, weighted average domestic
prices of major export-oriented crops were about 60 percent
lower than before the start of the war. General economic
uncertainty has also constrained credit availability, especially for
farmers with smaller holdings. Outbound population movements
and military duty also continue to limit the availability of labour.
Although progress has been made on demining areas without
active fighting, remnants of the war in many cases continue to
hamper access to fields.
Although immediate losses of crop production due to flooding
caused by the Kakhovka Dam destruction on 6 June 2023 have
been relatively limited, the destroyed infrastructure carries
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long-term consequences for the region, especially for the
irrigated agricultural production, including the 2023 spring crops
recently planted.
Total cereal production in 2023 forecast over
30 percent below average
The harvest of the 2023 winter cereal crops, mostly wheat, is
onging and will be concluded by August. As a result of a smaller
planted area, the 2023 wheat harvest in areas under government
control is estimated at 18.5 million tonnes, about 8 percent below
the already war-affected 2022 output.
FAO forecasts 2023 cereal harvest, including winter and spring
crops, at 47.8 million tonnes, about 12 percent below the 2023
output.
Export volumes remain below pre-war levels
Cereal exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June)
reached 49 million tonnes, including 29.5 million tonnes of maize,
16.8 million tonnes of wheat and 2.7 million tonnes of barley. Out
of this amount, 16.8 million tonnes of maize, 8.9 million tonnes of
whear and 1.3 million tonnes of barley were exported from
designated Ukrainian Black Sea ports under the Black Sea Grain
Initiative (BSGI). The latest extension of the BSGI is set to expire
on 17 July 2023 and, despite continuing consultations and
negotiations, prospects of additional renewal remain unclear. The
expiration of the BSGI coincides with the peak of the wheat
harvest in the country. Wheat is usually exported from September
onwards, freeing storage for the maize crop. If the BSGI is not
extended and the export pace via alternative channels (rail, road
and river) is not adequate, the storage capacity for the 2023
maize crop could become an issue.
The state carrier estimates the capacity of cross-border rail
transportation at 1.5 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds per
month, based on the availability of the train cars and not
considering logistical challenges of border crossing. In the month
of November 2022 alone, slightly over 1 million tonnes of grains
and oilseeds crossed the western borders, a record level. In the
first quarter of 2023 (latest figures available), about 900 000
tonnes of grains and oilseeds were exported via the western
border. In June 2023, the European Council approved an
extension of the duty free import regime for Ukrainian products
for one year. However, the import ban of Ukrainian wheat, maize,
rapeseed and sunflower seeds by five member states (Poland,
Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria) was extended until
15 September 2023, although transit of agricultural products
across these countries remains allowed.
Similarly, the volume of exports via three Ukrainian Danube ports
increased gradually from about 55 000 tonnes per month in
January 2022 to 1.5 million tonnes in August 2022, reaching a
record level of 3 million tonnes in May 2023.However, given
prevailing bottlenecks in the railroad transport towards the river
ports, replicating this record level might not be immediately
attainable.
About 17.6 million people in need of
humanitarian assistance
Despite decreased cereal production, food availability at the
national level is reported to be adequate, but access remains a
major challenge. The country has already experienced elevated
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levels of food price inflation in the past, due to the economic
impact of the conflict in eastern areas. Since the peak in
October 2022, the domestic food price inflation has decreased,
but it remains significantly elevated. According to the State
Statistics Service of Ukraine, food prices in May 2023 remained
over 20 percent above their level of May 2022. In addition, rising
energy costs, amidst high unemployment rates and limited
livelihood opportunities, are reducing households’ purchasing
power and driving more people into poverty.
The country continues to be a significant supplier of food
commodities at the global level. However, according to the 2023
Humanitarian Needs Overview, about 17.6 million people are
estimated to need multisectoral humanitarian assistance in 2023,
including over 11 million people in need of food security and
livelihood interventions. As of late May 2023, slightly over
5 million people were estimated to be displaced in the country
(International Organization for Migration [IOM]), while the
presence of about 6 million Ukrainian refugees was recorded in
European countries as of mid-June 2023 (United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR]).
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this
information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the
part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of
its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/.
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/.
The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural
markets and the risks associated with the war in Ukraine. July 2023
https://www.fao.org/3/cc6797en/cc6797en.pdf.
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