USDA
USDA
14.0
12.0
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
Colombia is the third-largest coffee producer in the world behind Brazil and Vietnam combined Arabica
and Robusta output and is the second-largest Arabica producer after Brazil. In the last 2 decades,
Colombia coffee growers experienced two sharp annual declines, coinciding with extreme weather
events. In 2024/25, Brazil Arabica production is forecast to rise, but is below recent highs as recovery
continues. Reduced output from these top suppliers has contributed to world ending stocks trending
lower over the last decade on rising consumption.
Colombia’s first reduction started during the 2008/09 harvest when heavy rains increased humidity and
encouraged coffee rust, which led to a high rate of undeveloped coffee cherries dropping to the ground.
This created an ideal environment for the coffee cherry borer insect to proliferate, and the combined
impact of rust and insect infestation caused output to drop 3.9 million bags to 8.7 million. This marked
the lowest production since 1972/73. In response, the industry embarked on an aggressive tree
renovation program to replace trees with rust-resistant varieties. The program had the near-term effect
of lowering output until these trees reached maturity; production continued to slip until bottoming at
7.7 million bags in 2011/12. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FEDECAFE)
estimates that nearly 85 percent of coffee area is now planted with rust-resistant varieties compared to
just 35 percent in 2007/08. The renovation program reduced the average age of coffee trees from about
15 to 7 years and increased yields by nearly 30 percent. By 2013/14, output recovered to 12.1 million
bags.
The second output drop occurred during the 2021/22 harvest when excessive rains and cloud cover
disrupted the flowering process. This caused production to fall 1.6 million bags to 11.8 million, the
lowest level in nearly a decade. Yields continued to decrease in 2022/23 because growers limited
fertilizer use due to near record prices for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash following Russia’s invasion of
120 30
100 25
80 20
60 15
40 10
20 5
- -
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
Vietnam production is forecast nearly unchanged at 29.0 million bags, with over 95 percent of total
output remaining as Robusta. The rainy season was slightly delayed and above average temperatures
were recorded in many areas, adversely affecting yields. Similar conditions lowered yields and output
the previous 2 harvests. Bean exports are forecast to drop nearly 500,000 bags to 24.4 million due to
reduced total supply and rising domestic consumption.
Reduced groundwater and forest cover pose long term challenges as many coffee growers in Vietnam
rely on wells for irrigation and forest cover helps slow evaporation. In response, the provincial
Colombia Arabica production is forecast up 200,000 bags to 12.4 million on slightly higher yields, though
yields are expected below recent highs due to increased rates of coffee cherry borer insect infestations.
Bean exports, mostly to the United States and European Union, are forecast up 200,000 bags to 10.8
million on higher supplies.
Central America and Mexico production is forecast 300,000 bags higher to 16.6 million, with Arabica
accounting for 95 percent of output. Nicaragua is expected nearly 300,000 bags higher to 2.7 million,
while Mexico is expected to gain just 30,000 bags to 3.9 million. Production is expected flat in Costa
Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama. Bean exports for the region are forecast up
500,000 bags to 13.4 million, fueled by slightly higher supplies and an expected drawdown of stocks.
Indonesia combined Arabica and Robusta Indonesia Robusta Production Forecast to Rebound
12
harvest is forecast to rebound nearly 2.8
million bags to 10.9 million. Robusta output is 10
expected to recover 2.7 million bags to 9.5
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
European Union imports are forecast up 2.0 million bags to 47.5 million due to higher shipments from
Brazil and Indonesia. Top suppliers in calendar year 2023 included Brazil (36 percent), Vietnam (25
percent), Uganda (8 percent), and Honduras (7 percent). Ending stocks are expected to rise 2.1 million
bags to 11.6 million.
The United States imports the second-largest amount of coffee beans and is forecast to gain 900,000
bags to 24.5 million on rising consumption. Top suppliers in calendar year 2023 included Brazil (27
percent), Colombia (19 percent), Vietnam (11 percent), and Guatemala (6 percent). Ending stocks are
forecast unchanged at 5.7 million bags.
World production is lowered 2.2 million bags from the December 2023 estimate to 169.2 million.
• Central America and Mexico are reduced 2.5 million bags to 16.4 million due to higher-than-
anticipated incidents of coffee cherry borer insect infestations as well as coffee rust.
• Indonesia is revised down 1.6 million bags to 8.2 million as drought conditions in Southern
Sumatra lowered Robusta yields.
• Vietnam is raised 1.6 million bags to 29.1 million as farmers improved yields through higher -
than-expected irrigation to mitigate the effects of drought and high temperatures.
• Colombia is up 700,000 bags to 12.2 million as coffee cherry borer insect infestations were not
as severe as anticipated.
World ending stocks are reduced 2.6 million bags to 23.9 million.
• Brazil is lowered 1.7 million bags to 2.9 million on higher shipments.
• Indonesia is reduced 800,000 bags to 500,000 on lower output.
The Coffee: World Markets and Trade circular is based on reports from FAS Overseas Posts and on
available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at:
https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx.
PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: https://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.
Additional Resources
Please refer to the USDA-FAS Coffee website at: https://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/coffee for
additional data and analysis.
Jun
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples. Coffee
marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October. To access a complete dataset for each country, please visit:
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx
Jun
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples. Coffee
marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October. Roasted coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the
net weight of roasted coffee by 1.19. Soluble coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of soluble
coffee by 2.6. For each non-producing country, the trade balance between imports and exports is used in order to avoid double-counting
for these figures.
Jun
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples. Coffee
marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October. Roasted coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the
net weight of roasted coffee by 1.19. Soluble coffee was converted to green bean equivalent by multiplying the net weight of soluble
coffee by 2.6. For each non-producing country, the trade balance between imports and exports is used in order to avoid double-counting
for these figures.
Jun
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples. Coffee
marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.