MEDS-071

Introduction to
Indira Gandhi National Open University
Population Studies
School of Extension and Development Studies

BLOCK 1
Population Studies : An Overview 3
BLOCK 2
Population Dynamics 85

BLOCK 3
Fertility 147

BLOCK 4
Mortality and Morbidity 213
BLOCK 5
Migration 305
 MEDS-071
Introduction to
Indira Gandhi National Open University
Population Studies
School of Extension and Development Studies

Block

1
Population Studies: An Overview
UNIT 1
Scope of Population Studies 9
UNIT 2
Evolution of Population Studies 22

UNIT 3
Population Structure 34

UNIT 4
World Trend and Pattern of Population 53
UNIT 5
Population Trend and Pattern in India 69
PROGRAMME DESIGN COMMITTEE
Prof. V. K. Tiwari Prof. Nehal A. Farooquee, SOEDS, IGNOU,
NIHFW, MoHFW, GOI, New Delhi-67 New Delhi
Prof. Dipendra Nath Das Prof. P.V. K. Sasidhar, SOEDS, IGNOU,
CSRD, SSS, JNU, New Delhi-67 New Delhi
Dr. Bhaswati Das Dr. Grace Don Nemching, SOEDS, IGNOU,
CSRD, SSS, JNU, New Delhi-67 New Delhi
Dr. Harish Kumar Meena Dr. Pradeep Kumar, SOEDS, IGNOU, New Delhi
NCERT, New Delhi
Dr. Nisha Varghese, SOEDS, IGNOU, New Delhi
Prof. B. K. Pattanaik, SOEDS, IGNOU,
Dr. Sarda Prasad, SOEDS, IGNOU, New Delhi
New Delhi

COURSE PREPARATION COMMITTEE

Units Writers: Editing
Dr. Sarda Prasad (Unit 1), IGNOU, New Delhi Prof. B. K. Pattanaik, SOEDS, IGNOU,
Dr. Sarda Prasad (Unit 2), IGNOU, New Delhi New Delhi
(Content Editor)
Dr. Sarda Prasad (Unit 3), IGNOU, New Delhi
Prof. Parmod Kumar, SOH, IGNOU,
Dr. Bhaswati Das (Unit 4), JNU, New Delhi
New Delhi
Dr. Bhaswati Das (Unit 5), JNU, New Delhi (Language Editor)

Programme Coordinators : Dr. Sarda Prasad (sardaprasad@ignou.ac.in)

Dr. Grace Don Nemching (gdnemching@ignou.ac.in)

Course Coordinator : Dr. Sarda Prasad, E-mail: sardaprasad@ignou.ac.in

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Mr. Tilak Raj
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MPDD, IGNOU

November, 2023
 Indira Gandhi National Open University, 2023
ISBN : 978-93-5568-987-0
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Course Objectives/Discription
1-Introduction to Population Studies (MEDS-071)
Population studies are the concept and technique of population measurement and its
components. Without knowing of population trends and pattern of the nation,
development programme and policy could not be succeeded, and goals and targets of
Sustainable Development 2030 (SDGs) would not be achieved. Population studies
are a scientific study of the population and its characteristics of any geographic location.
At the end of this course, learners would able to -
- explain concept of population, history of population studies and its trend and
patterns of population and structure.
- describe the basic components of population change, population data,
demographic transition and marital status.
- measure fertility and discuss the fertility transition in Asia and India and factors
influencing fertility and issues and challenges of fertility.
- discuss mortality and morbidity are the main component of population change
and learners would be identified the main cause of death (mortality) and nature
of ailments or diseases patterns among the mass (Morbidity).
- explain causes and consequences of migration.
Course 1 Introduction to Population Studies
Block 1 Population Studies : An overview
Unit 1 Scope of Population Studies
Unit 2 Evolution of Population Studies
Unit 3 Population Structure
Unit 4 World Trend and Pattern of Population
Unit 5 Population trend and Pattern of India
Block 2 Population Dynamics
Unit 1 Introduction to Components of Population Dynamics
Unit 2 Sources of data
Unit 3 Demographic Transition
Unit 4 Marriage and Nuptiality
Block 3 Fertility
Unit 1 Basic measurement of fertility
Unit 2 Fertility transition in Asia and India
Unit 3 Factors affecting fertility
Unit 4 Fertility: Issues and challenges
Block 4 Mortality and Morbidity
Unit 1 Basic measurement of Mortality and Morbidity
Unit 2 Mortality pattern (maternal, Child and infant mortality rate)
Unit 3 International Classification of Diseases (ICD)
Unit 4 Communicable and Non Communicable Diseases
Unit 5 Epidemiological Transition
Block 5 Migration
Unit 1 Meaning and Concept of Migration
Unit 2 Estimation of Migration
Unit 3 Nature and Pattern of Migration
Unit 4 Internal Migration
Unit 5 Characteristics of Migrants
BLOCK 1 POPULATION STUDIES : AN
OVERVIEW
Population is the cause and consequence of development. Keep in mind of this
idea, in this block, we have to learnt about the dynamics of population, with special
reference to development initiatives and environmental impacts, scope of population
studies, historical perspective of population studies, population structure and
distribution, world trend and pattern of population. Thus, this Block consists of 5
specific units related to population studies.
Unit 1 Deals with the scope of population studies, population characteristics and
role of population studies in the development. It explains human population in empirical,
critical, systematic, statistical and mathematical way, enable to know the reproductive
change of population (Fertility and Mortality) and the socio-economic change of
the population (Migration) in a particular geographic area. Planned population growth
shows positive changes in the society while unplanned population growth affects
negatively not only physical resources and natural resources but human resources
too. These trio resources affects by the population growth and public health.
Unit 2 Is on the evolution of population studies and elaborates the importance of
population studies in the context of development issues and challenges. Population
Studies starts with the idea of Malthus on population and food security. Modern
thinker of scientific study of population is the John Graunt. There are many reasons
for population studies start in the academic world.
Unit 3 Delineats about the structure of population such as age and sex structure of
the population in different location in both rural and urban areas. Population structure
is the determinant of the economicatly active age-group of population along with
dependent population. This unit is important in the population studies as it deals
with many aspects of population and development.
Unit 4 Covers the trends and pattern of population at global level. Customarily
population trends are not uniform in all the countries. Different countries have different
trends and pattern of population. In this unit we can find population growth and
pattern in developed countries as well as in under developed or less developed
countries.
Unit 5 Deals with the population trend and pattern in India. In the previous unit
we have studied about the trends and patterns in all the selected countries, but in
this unit we have to learn about the trends of population in all the states and union
territories in India. Indian states exhibits different trends and patterns of population.
Population Studies:
An Overview

8
 Scope of Population
UNIT 1 SCOPE OF POPULATION STUDIES Studies

Structure
1.1 Introduction
1.2 What are Population and Population Studies?
1.3 Meaning of Population Studies
Why Population Studies?
Demography and Population Studies
1.4 Importance of Population Studies
1.5 Scope of Population Studies
(i) Population Studies and Demography
(ii) Population Studies and Statistics
(iii) Population Studies and Science
(iv) Micro and Macro Study of Population
(v) Population Studies and Economic Activity of the Population
(vi) Population Studies and Policy Data
(vii) Population Studies and Marital Status
(viii) Population Migration Studies
(ix) Population Studies and Sociology
(x) Population Studies and Anthropology
(xi) Population Studies and Legal Studies
(xii) Population Studies and Human Ecology
(xiii) Population Studies and Psychology
(xiv) Population Studies and Geography
(xv) Population Studies and Agriculture
(xvi) Population and Health Studies
1.6 Let Us Sum Up
1.7 References and Suggested Readings
1.8 Check Your Progress- Possible Answers
1.9 Important Terminology for Population Studies

1.1 INTRODUCTION
Demography is the scientific study of human population and its components. Social
Demography and public health are important components of any development activities
and development policy. Social demography focuses on the trends and pattern of
population change which directly affects development and economic growth of the
country. It is the study of human population and the empirical, critical, systematic,
statistical and mathematical way to know about the reproductive change of population
(Fertility and Mortality) and the socio-economic change of the population (Migration)
in a particular geographic area. Planned population growth positive have effect in
the society while unplanned population growth affects negatively not only physical
9
Population Studies: resources and natural resources but human resources too. These trio resources affects
An Overview
by the population growth and public health. All the policy makers and development
agents should know the demographic trends, population pattern, population
distribution and population structure of the society in ords to formulate effective
population and health policy. There are various causes of morbidity and ailments
which are either communicable or non-communicable ailments. It is important to
know the trends and pattern of diseases among different sects of the population of
the country.
There is a well known saying “Development is the best contraceptive”, which means
that development is affected by population growth and population growth is affects
development and vice versa. Population growth can be checked through various
family planning methods. Now ageing is a new demographic phenomenon in the
world which forced to introduce health care for elderly. This unit gives an overview
of population sdudies.
After reading this unit learner would be able to:
(i) Explain the population and its components
(ii) Discuss the population characteristics
(iii) Describe the scope of population studies and demography
(iv) Narrate the population trends and challenges

1.2 WHAT ARE POPULATION AND POPULATION

STUDIES?
Population is a group of human beings in terms of human population while population
studies means mass of living being at a particular location in particular time. According
to Meriam Dictionary “the total of individuals occupying an area or making up a
whole” is called population. According to Hans Raj “any statistical investigation is
concerned with one or more characteristics of a set of individuals or objects. This
group of objects may be animate or inanimate, existent or non-existent, real or
hypothetical, finite or infinite and is known as population or universe in a statistical
sense. Representative part of population is called sample in statistical studies of
population. Demography deals only human population studies scientifically.
Demography and population studies are not mutually exclusive in nature. Demography
deals statistical study of human population but not individual human, while population
studies deal all aspects of human population i.e., population size, composition and
distribution. Population study focuses on the three components of population- birth,
death and migration. These population components alter population at any place.
Population Size means total number of people living in a particular area during
definite period of time. Whether population is higher in one place as compared
to the other place, which area has more population, etc. are covered in the size
of population studies. Population size is important for policy makers, planners,
legislature, medical professionals, educationist, industry, social scientists and
important for government programme and development schemes. Thus, size of
population indicates the number of persons in the population.
10
Similarly, composition of population is also important for population policies and Scope of Population
Studies
programmes. Population composition deals with the age and sex of population.
Composition of population influences components of population dynamics such as
fertility, mortality and migration. Population composition can be determined by the
age –sex population pyramids. Thus composition of population deals with the structure
and characteristics of population.
Population distribution means characteristics of population in both rural and urban
residences. It deals how population is distributed within an area or country. This is
also an important component of population studies by indicating how population is
growing in a particular area and what is the nature of population. Thus, population
distribution is all about the arrangements of the population in different spaces and
residences (Rural or urban) in a specific definite time.
Check Your Progress 1
Note : a) Write your answer in about 50 words
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) Define population and list its components.
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1.3 MEANING OF POPULATION STUDIES

According to Thompson (1958) population studies is concerned with a few relevant
questions :
- What is the change of population size and how it has changed? What is
importance of these changes in terms of human welfare?
- What is the distribution of population in particular area or place of residences?
- What kind of population is living in a group, community and what are the
different characteristics of these group and community of population?
Thus, population study is all about the population size, distribution, composition
and their characteristics. For example population India in 2011 was 1210 million,
in 2001 it was 1027 million and in 1991 it was 864 million. It means during 2001
to 2011 India’s population size has increased by 183 million while during previous
decade (1991 to 2001) increased by 163 million. We can also know the population
change in both rural and urban areas by age and sex from the population studies.
Population of area is changing due to three components of population i.e., birth
(fertility), death (mortality) and migration (movement of the people from one location
to other). Population is cause and consequence of development which is determined
by population growth, socio-economic development and degradation of environment
or natural resources of the country. 11
Population Studies: Why Population Studies?
An Overview
It is a well known facts that universe is for human welfare and human welfare is
being influenced by the use of available natural resources, physical resources, human
resources and environment. Based on population growth and its characteristics, all
the resources are being utilized for the well-being of human resources. For example,
growth of population affects growth of agriculture, industry, educational institution,
energy, transportation, medical care institution, etc. Population studies show the path
of sectoral development. Therefore, population study is important for economical
aspects of population, political issues of government, planning and programmes related
issues and challenges, social phenomenon, administrative process, to know the
situation analysis gap in development and human welfare.
Demography and Population Studies
Demography and population studies are not mutually exclusive in nature of application
and both influences each other in the study of population. Various scholars have
defined demography as per their operational use in the study. Demos is Latin word
which means people and graphy means organizing for study. Thus demography is
the science of people. It is the mathematical and statistical study of the size, composition
and spatial distribution of human population and of the changes over time in these
aspects through the operations of the five processes such as fertility, mortality, marriage,
migration and social mobility. Although, it means a continuous descriptive and
comparative analysis of trends in each of these processes and in their net result, its
long run goal is to develop theories to explain the events that it charts and compares
(Bogue, 1969). Thus, demography deals with statistical model of population studies.
Population studies are the application of demographic techniques for the human welfare
aspects and development of population. A population study covers not only
demographic technique, but also all the aspects of development under the available
resources by using technology and human resources. Thus population studies deals
with the size, composition and distribution of population according the demographic
trends of particular area. Thus, we can say that demography is the part of population
studies. Population studies is method of scientific study of the factors related to
socio-economic, political, health, cultural, environmental, psychological, regional,
agriculture and industrial development, etc., for human welfare. Population studies
are the study of development issues and challenges and factors influencing development.
Demography is quantitative study of population, while population studies are the
qualitative study of the peoples.

1.4 IMPORTANCE OF POPULATION STUDIES

Population studies are complex exercise of administrative process and policy
dimensions as well as development issues. Without knowing population size, distribution,
composition, population characteristics and trends of demography, any development
programmes is like letting loose off the arrow in darkness (Prasad and Das, 2016).
The importance of population studies are as follows-
Economic Development – population studies determined by economic structure
and economic characteristics of the population. Population studies led the working
age population and their dependency on economic working age population. The
12
dependency ratio is the best indicator of population studies of economic development Scope of Population
Studies
aspects. Likewise industrial development and agriculture and non agriculture
occupation are also concerned of population studies. Population growth and economic
growth rate go together. Needs of business hubs such as shopping centres, banking
facilities, transportation, economic zone development, marketing centres, etc. are
related population structure.
Political affairs – Population studies are important for political affairs of the country
at national and international level. Firstly, we can find out the increasing rate of voters
and secondly, how immigration and emigration rate is influencing national important
in global politics.
Programme and Planning – Population studies is the base of development
programme and planning based on the rate of population growth, fertility rate, mortality
rate and migration rate. Population growth either by natural or by socio-economic
and political process forces programme planners to formulate effective plan to
implement sectoral development across the social group and at various places.
Agriculture and Food Security – Two thinkers of population and agriculture are
Malthus and Boserup, who have thought about the growth of agriculture and
population. Both thinkers contradicted to each other. Malthus said that growth of
agriculture is arithmetic, while population growth is geometric and after certain point
of time people will die because of shortage of food. While, Boserup was thinking
positively and said that population is assets of the country and if population increases,
it will lead to use technology and human resources to boost agriculture growth.
Social – Population studies is one of the sources of information regarding social
development and social infrastructure need for human population. Population study
is the source of information for fertility differential among the social groups. It is
also base of social security and social welfare schemes. Cinema halls and
Entertainment Parks are developed based on population trends of any area.
Infrastructure – population studies is the best source of data for infrastructure
development such as roads, water, housing, educational institution, power generation,
health care facilities and other facilities. Playground and recreation centre are need
of the hours based on population characteristics.
Law and governance – population studies also ensure the number of security
personnel required for maintaining law and order in the locality.
Cyber and Internet – population study that can provide help to projecting population
and their requirement of the cyber, telecommunication, internet facilities, mobile phones,
sim subscribers to link the world population in the present era. Computer technology
is helping to manage a large population in short duration and computer technology
need arises because of population growth.
Insurance and Health Insurance – Population studies are important tools for
insurance organization and insurance professionals. Insurance for different categories
can be determined by the study of characteristics of the population and demographic
dividend in the country.
Thus, importance of population studies cannot be separated from any developmental
process. Everything is for population and population is for everything available in
the earth.
13
Population Studies:
An Overview 1.5 SCOPE OF POPULATION STUDIES
Scope of population studies are wide and linked with all the disciplines. Basically,
population studies comprises the mathematical and statistical approaches for
quantitative studies of the human population. But, it is not exclusive for all the natural
and social sciences to study population across the region and duration. Population
study is multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary in nature which involves life science,
geography, economics, statistics, mathematics, health sciences, agricultural sciences,
politics, behavioural sciences, psychology, ecology, biology, etc. The scope of
population studies can be understood as below.
(i) Population Studies and Demography- Till now you have already studied
population studies and demography in brief. Demography and population
studies are not mutually exclusive and demography includes race,
nationality, language, marital status, place of birth, education status,
occupation, sources of income generation and inheritance, etc. It also
deals with impacts of population on environment, resources, eugenics,
migration, urbanization and its problems, human resource and distribution
of income and expenditure.
(ii) Population Studies and Statistics – Founding father of population studies
is John Graunt. Number is the best indicator of population studies.
Statistics is the heart of population studies and its components. Statistics
measures the growth and trends of population over the time and its rate
and ratio for particular geographic location. Statistics rates the population
change and speed of population change or population tempo. Thus,
statistics is the tool and technique of the population studies for population
projection and construction of life tables.
(iii) Population Studies and Science- Science connotes four steps
“systematic, controlled, empirical and critical investigation of hypothetical
propositions about the presumed relations among natural phenomena”
(Kerlinger, 1970). Similarly, population studies are all about the
systematic, controlled, empirical and critical study of the population
components and factors affecting all the components in demographic
events. All the demographic techniques are universal by acceptable. Jhingan
et. al., (2006) population studies is both positive and normative science
which deals what is and what ought to be respectively.
(iv) Micro and Macro Study of Population – Population study is both
micro and macro study of population. In micro study it measures growth
rate, distribution and redistribution of population within community in
an area (Bogue). In macro study, it has covers multidisciplinary and
interdisciplinary approaches.
(v) Population Studies and Economic Activity of the Population –
Population affects by income, education, occupation, labour force
participation, production of goods, services, industrial activities. These
are important economic variables for population studies. Population density
and capital intensive technology more popular in the world, and both
14
 are subject matters of population studies and economics. Labour supply Scope of Population
Studies
and demand is the matter of population studies and economic studies.
A German scholar stated that “I maintain that the timing and the form
of most of our German business cycles have been determined primarily
by waves in our labour supply. Among the most decisive in the economic
life of a country is its population, its people, their number and quantity.”
Another scholar has stated that “developed countries may face the
problem of declining investment opportunities as a result of cessation
of population growth and disappearing of new territories for settlement
and expansion.” Ian Bown is of the view that, “population growth, size
and distribution cannot be discussed rationally except in the context of
economic growth or change” (Hans Raj).
(vi) Population Studies and Policy Data- Population census is the best
source of data for policy purposes. Premi (2001) has stated that complete
and reliable data for population studies is population census of any country.
Census is the complete enumeration of head count in a particular area
for specific duration. Indian Census has been conducting since 1872
every ten years interval (Decadal). First census was de-facto after that
each census is conducting as de-jure. De-facto census means count
person wherever found in single night exercise, while, de-jure census
mean count person at their place of birth or place of legal and regular
residence. Census collected, compiled, tabulated and presented
information of population regarding general population, economic
information, socio-cultural information, migration information, fertility
information and household information in the name of A, B, C, D, F,
and H Tables respectively.
(vii) Population Studies and Marital Status- Population studies reveal the
status of nuptiality by age and residence. Marital status in population
studies covers currently married, widowhood, separated, unmarried and
divorcee. Marital status is important to know the natural population growth
rate and maternal and child health care facilities.
(viii) Population and Migration Studies- Population studies not only studies
natural population growth, but it also population growth through socio-
economic and political process. Thus, scope of population studies is
broader in terms of national and global population growth rate through
immigration and emigration process.
(ix) Population Studies and Sociology- Sociology and population studies
are treats population as social animal. Sociology deals with the action
and reaction of social process and social interaction in the society. Both
subjects are studying the social problems such birth, death, marriage,
divorce, social organization, social groups, social race, sex, social
discrimination, social norms, etc. Social stratification and social class
are the main idea of sociologists, while, for demogophen, population
characteristics in different strata of society and different class of society.
Here population studies are quantitative study, while sociology is qualitative
study of the population in the society (Hans Raj).
15
Population Studies: (x) Population Studies and Anthropology – Population studies is broader
An Overview
to study all the sects of society, while anthropology is concerned with
the study of few section of society. Both are studying the growth of
population and social behavior of breeding, assertive mating and breeding,
mutation and gene flow, eugenics, etc.
(xi) Population Studies and Legal Studies- Population problems can be
solved not only by socio-economic and political process but also by
using legal process. Most of the problems which is prevalent in the society
cannot be solved by the society, but legal professional can take care of
this by using law and order. For example, marital status under age, voter
rights, social rights, birth rights, domestic violence, gender discrimination,
social discrimination, political rights, Indian Medical Termination of
Pregnancy Act (1972), etc., are the legal matters of the population. Both
differs in terms of rigidity and flexibility, as legal is rigid by written law,
while population studies is the situational flexible studies.
(xii) Population Studies and Human Ecology – Population is the major
factors for environmental degradation and consumers of natural resources.
Population growth and quality of environment are inverse by related to
each other. For example, if population increases the utilization of natural
resources increases that affects environment through growth of industary
and transportation. Hutchinson and Deevy stated that “ecology is nothing
else but bio-demography”. It is well known facts that population and
food are closely related which affects ecology. Population density and
ecology are negatively related which is good and conducive for human
inhabitation. Ecologist concerned only environment and never bother about
the cultural and social institutions while population studies do that (Hans
Raj).
(xiii) Population Studies and Psychology- Both subjects are concerned with
human welfare and social behavior of the population. Family planning
and sex preference are subject matters of both population studies and
psychology. Use of contraception and family planning methods are subjects
of population studies while attitude and perception towards contraction
use and family planning methods are related to the psychology. Thus,
population studies concerned about the physical activity process in the
social system, while psychology concerned about the mental process
of the population in social system.
(xiv) Population Studies and Geography- Population studies is an inevitable
component of the human geography. Geography deals with physical
infrastructure for human welfare, while population studies deal with socio-
economic, biological, political process, etc for human welfare. Spatial
distribution of population can be understood from geography while size,
composition and distribution of the population can be understood from
population studies. According to Ackerman, “geographers have taken
the cultural features of the earth, analyzed them genetically and in their
space relations and established covariant relations of cultural features
with each other and with the physical and biotic environment. These
16
 distributional features are common both to population studies and Scope of Population
Studies
geography” (Hans Raj).
It has been observed that geographic forces and demographic forces
are closely related to each other and affects human welfare. Moreover,
social behavior, food habits, span of life, birth and death rates, approaches
to human problems, cultivation and division of labour are linked with
geographical and physical conditions. Urbanization, rural-urban population
and migration are subjects matters of both geography and population
studies. Geographers are interested on uncontrolled phenomenon of the
environmental process, while population experts are interested on
controlled variables of the society. For example, climate, natural resources,
rivers, forests, mountains, etc., are uncontrolled variables of the population
studies, while facts, figures, and data about the population are controlled
variables of the population studies. Geographers and demographers are
stated that in hot regions low capital formation and higher birth rate are
recorded as compared to other regions.
(xv) Population Studies and Agriculture- Population and agriculture are
intimately interconnected. Without knowing population trends agriculture
scientist cannot understand the demand and supply of food to feed the
mass. Earlier we have discussed ideas of Malthus and Boserup regarding
agriculture, food security and population growth. At present, agriculture
professionals have challenges for food and nutrition security owing to
changing demographic characteristics of the nation. In the era of
liberalization, privatization and globalization, population studies and
agriculture studies utmost important issues and challenges for sustainable
development and health.
(xiv) Population Studies and Health Studies – Morbidity rate and hospitality
rate is the interest of population studies and health studies. Due to climate
change, various kind of ailments are emerging year by year. Population
studies indicate requirement of the health facilities infrastructure
development at present and for future based on population growth.
Check Your Progress 2
Note : a) Write your answer in about 50 words
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) Briefly compare Demography and Population Studies.
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
2) What is scope of population studies with special reference to economic affairs?
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Population Studies:
An Overview 1.6 LET US SUM UP
The population studies is concerned with size or numbers, its structure and
characteristics, its distribution and the changes taking place over a period of time.
It is also implied in this description that the subject matter of population studies
includes the study of fertility, mortality, migration and social mobility that is the
components of change in the size, structure, characteristics and distribution of
population. Population structure implies the age and sex structure of the population
and population characteristics include such characteristics as marital status, literacy
and educational status, labour force status, etc. Population characteristics however
can and do change through social mobility that is through movements of individuals
from one status to another for example from single to married status and also through
fertility, mortality and migration (Asha and Tara).

1.7 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READINGS

Asha A. Bhende and Tara Kanitkar, 2010. Principles of Population Studies, Himalaya
Publishing House, Mumbai.
Donald J Bogue. 1969. Principles of Demography, John Wiley and sons, New York.
Hans Raj, 2003. Fundamentals of Demography. Surjeet Publications, Delhi.
Izabela Grabowska, et al. 2017. Migration, Diaspora and Citizenship, Palgrave
Macmillan, Springer, Landon.
K. Srinivasan, 2011. Training Manual on Demographic Techniques, UNFPA and
Census of India, Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Office of Registrar
General, India, Ministry of Home Affair, Government of India.
M.L. Jhingan, B.K. Bhatt and J.N. Desai, 2006.Demography, Vrinda Publication,
Delhi.
R.C. Chandna. 2004. Geography of Population: Concepts, Determinants and Pattterns.
Kalyani Publishers. New Delhi.
Sarda Prasad, 2021. Migration and Rural Development: Pre-covid scenario, Notion
Press, Chennai.
W.T.S. Gould, 2009. Migration and Development, Routledge, London
United Nations, 1970. Methods of Measuring Internal Migration, Manual VI,
Population Division, reference Centre, ST/SOA/series A/47.
http://ndl.ethernet.edu.et/bitstream/123456789/87327/1/Int.%20to%20Population
%20Studies-POPS%201011%20Main%20Body.pdf downloaded on August 04,
2022.

1.8 CHECK YOUR PROGRESS - POSSIBLE

ANSWERS
Check Your Progress 1

18 Q. Define population and list its components

 A. Population is a group of human beings in terms of human population while Scope of Population
Studies
population means mass of living being at a particular location in particular
time. According to Meriam Dictionary “the total number of individuals
occupying an area or making up a whole” is called population. There are
three components of population i.e., Birth (fertility), Death (Mortality) and
Migration (Movement of people).
Check Your Progress 2
Q1. Compare Demography and Population Studies in brief
A. Demography and population studies are not mutually exclusive. Demos is
Latin word which means people and graphy means structural organization
for study. Thus, demography is the science of people. It is the mathematical
and statistical study of the size, composition and spatial distribution of human
population. Population studies is a method of scientific study of the factors
related socio-economic, political, health, cultural, environmental,
psychological, regional, agriculture, technological use, industrial development,
etc., for human welfare. Population studies are the study of development
issues and challenges for the population and the study of factors influencing
development. Thus, we can say that demography is the part of population
studies.
Q2. What is scope of population studies with special reference of economic affairs?
A. Population studies determined by economic structure and economic
characteristics of the population. Population studies led the working age
population and their dependency on economic working age population.
Population affects by income, education, occupation, labour force
participation, production of goods, services, and industrial activities are
important economic variables for population studies.

1.9 IMPORTANT TERMINOLOGY OF POPULATION

STUDIES
Census- as the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic,
economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time or times to all person in a
country or delimited territory” (Hans Raj). In other words complete enumeration
of population or counting of each heads and their characteristics is census.
Census Techniques- there are two census techniques De facto method of census
and De jure methods. De facto census means enumeration of person wherever
found over night. That is why de facto is called census night, date system, or one
night enumeration system. De Jure is every person in an area is personally counted
and information obtained from him.
Proportion- it is a kind of particular ratio which express the size of one part of a
whole in relation to the size of another part of the same whole.
Rates- it expressed what has happened in terms of a certain unit of time.
Age structure of population – it is number of full years lived by an individual. In
other words, it is the age at last birthday that is generally used. The change in the
19
Population Studies: number of births first affects the child age group. Age structure is influence future
An Overview
demographic events as well.
Population momentum- rapid decline of fertility in the future, the number of births
might keep on increasing because of rise in the number of women in the reproductive
age in the future. This is simply because of there is an increasing number and proportion
of potential parents who will enter the child bearing ages, who are already born
and thus the population will continue to grow in size. This is called population
momentum.
Sex composition- it is simply sex ratio in the society. Sex ratio is number of male
divided by number of female multiply by 1000.
Child sex ratio = female children 0-6 year / male children 0-6 year * 1000
Death- permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after live birth
has taken place. Foetal death is not included in death. Foetal death is the complete
expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception, irrespective of
the duration of pregnancy; foetus does not breathe or show any other evidence of
life.
Fertility- the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she
experiences the current fertility pattern in her life time.
Marriage – legal union of persons of opposite sex either legal court or religious
practices.
Mean age at marriage – it is the average number of years at which a person is
married. In simple terms it is the sum of the ages of marriage of N persons who
are married in the same year to the number N.
Population Density- total number of persons living per square km area.
Infecundity- inability to produce a child
Migration – an event in which people go from one geographical area to another
geographical area to live permanently or for particular duration.
Migration rate – during a particular time period, how much percentage of population
has migrated.
Cohort – a group of persons having common classification or demographic experience
or demographic status of the same period.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – number of births per thousand populations per year
in a given area.
Crude Death Rate (CDR) – in a particular area, the number of persons dying
per thousand populations per year.
Urbanization – increasing of urban population owing to any cause i.e., by natural
or migration.
Urbanization rate (%) = urban population / total population *100
Age sex pyramid or population pyramid- age structure of population classified
by sex in the form of histogram.
20
Index of Ageing = population aged 60 + years / population aged 0-14 years *100 Scope of Population
Studies
Expectation of life at birth – number of years a new born child is expected to
live under current mortality conditions.
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)- number of infants dying under one year of age in
a year per 1000 live births of the same year.
Life Table – mathematical sample which shows the picture of condition regarding
death rate in a country and fulfils the basis of measuring the average expected life
of cohort at each age of life.
Exponential Population Growth- the population continues to change continuously
over time. To compute this rate we use formula: Pt = P0 er t
Pt=population 2011, P0= Population 2001, e= growth rate, t= time at the end of the
period
Dependency Ratio = it is the ratio of the population below the age of 15 years
and those aged 60 years and above per 100 of the population aged 15-59 years.
Work Participation Rate (WPR) = this is the proportion of all workers in a given
geographical area to total population of that area and is normally obtained as a
percentage, it is called crude work participation rate since the denominator includes
even children in 0-4 years age group who are not workers.
WPR= Workers / Population *100
Literacy rate = it is the proportion of literate persons in a given population at any
point of time. It is normally computed as a percentage.

21
Population Studies:
An Overview UNIT 2 EVOLUTION OF POPULATION
STUDIES
Structure
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Evolution of Population Studies
2.3 Thinkers of Population Studies
2.3.1 Jahn Graunt’s View on Population Studies
2.3.2 Malthus’s Idea on Population Growth and Development
2.3.3 Population Studies Ideas of Margaret Sanger and Annie Besant
2.3.2 Mahatma Gandhi
2.4 Movement on Population Studies
2.5 Let Us Sum Up
2.6 References and Suggested Readings
2.7 Check Your Progress- Possible Answers

2.1 INTRODUCTION
Population Studies starts with population problems either over population or under
population in the world in general and a specific country in particular. Determinants
of population problems are birth rate, death rate and migration rate of the population
and these are components of the population studies. We know that population is
the cause and consequences of development, which means development affected
by the population, and the development affects population. When a country feels
that the birth is higher or the mortality rate is higher or migration rate is higher and
what is the impact on development of the country based on the available resources,
economic growth and quality of people, etc is the base of population studies. Then
population scientist has think on the causes of population problems for the country
and problem of the country from the population and consequences of this population
studies have been evolve. Population studies are the complex ideas of development
linked with interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches of development which
affects both population and national resources for the development. After reading
this unit learner will be able to:
(i) Explain the origin of population studies
(ii) Discuss the role of population thinkers
(iii) Describe the population events chronological
(iv) Narrate the population and development based on the population thinkers

2.2 EVOLUTION OF POPULATION STUDIES

Development of any discipline has four stages- situation, objective, problem and
solution. It means what is the situation of population and its environment? What is
the objective of population and development? What are the problems in population?
22
and what are the solutions of these population problems? Search of problems starts Evolution of Population
Studies
from awareness level, and awareness creates interest on subjects and so on. Curiosity
and concern about the size and characteristics of the population have had a long
history. Gould (2009) has stated that population studies as a body of knowledge
and cohesive theory has also experienced changes in content, context and approach,
but over a longer period that development studies. That is why, we can say that
population and development is running together and both are interlinked or inter
dependent. Development of the population and development for the population is
the root of the population studies. After reviewing of the literature, we can find that
first thinker of population and development especially food security issues was
Malthus. He has got ideas from the French revolution of 1789, and writings of William
Godwin who argued that unequal distribution of power in society was the root cause
of poverty. Malthus argued that the poor were largely responsible for their own
poverty, and that population growth would in the long run generate even greater
poverty and inequality as the population would outstrip the resources on which they
could survive. That is why someone says that “Hey poor, you are poor, because
you are poor”.
In the mid 17th century, population studies emerged as discipline in England followed
by France, Germany and other European countries. USA contributed substantially
towards the development of this discipline.

2.3 THINKERS OF POPULATION STUDIES

According to available population or demographic literature, first population studies
thinker was Malthus, but scientific study of population and empirical study of population
had started prior to Malthus by John Graunt, an English harberdasher. John Graunt
is called founding father of research on Population studies or father of Demography.
There are many thinkers of population and development over period of time such
as Mahatma Gandhi, Margaret Senger, Annie Besent, etc. In Modern India, Radha
Kamal Mukherji is the big name in Population studies.
Graunt has published a pamphlet on natural and political observations made upon
the bills of mortality, in London (1662) which is the landmark in the history of
population studies. He has emphasized on quantitative analysis of mortality and only
incidentally that of fertility and migration. The bills of mortality from which Graunt
obtained the data for his analysis, were weekly current reports on burials and
christenings in a population of nearly half a million persons in London and its environs.
These reports were compiled and maintained regularly from 1603 onwards by Parish
clerks. Graunt assembled the data contained in these reports for the period 1604
to 1661 and prepared a report, which is today regarded as the first systematic and
objective study of population. It is said that in the maze of events recorded in the
bills of mortality, he sought and found order (Bhende and Kanitkar, 2010).

2.3.1 Jahn Graunt’s View on Population Studies

Graunt’s study is monumental in several respects. He considered many aspects in
the field of population studies, which are even today regarded as important. He
critically examined the data on mortality and fertility and pointed out their weaknesses,
biases and inadequacies. He is, therefore, deemed to be a pioneer, for he started
an important tradition of evaluating any population data for various biases and lacuna
23
Population Studies: and of devising adjustments in them to minimize the weaknesses and biases before
An Overview
using such data for research purposes. He made several observations based on
his basic data, which he presented in his work in great detail. Some of his inferences
are mentioned here, so that the reader can get some idea about his ingenious and
painstaking investigations. He discovered the biological phenomena of the excess
of male births over female births and measured sex ratios at birth in London and in
the surrounding rural community. He also observed that the number of deaths
exceeded that of births in London, whereas in the rural areas it was the other way
round. He estimated the ratio of deaths to births in London as nearly 12 to 11 in
contrast to that of 52 to 63 in the countryside. He estimated the size and growth
of the population of London in absolute numbers. Since deaths outnumbered births
in London for over half a century, he attributed the increase in the population of
London to migration and estimated the volume of migration. By using the ratio of
births to marriages, he tried to measure fertility. At several points, he tried to give
explanations for the regularities which he observed in his data. At all other times,
however, he avoided speculations which were not supported by empirical data.
The discipline of population studies is indeed indebted to John Graunt for laying
the foundation of a new science. At the same time, a grateful tribute must be paid
to those unknown parish clerks who initiated, compiled and maintained the “bills
of mortality.” Some of Graunt’s English contemporaries and successors share with
him the credit of founding population studies. Sir William Petty (1623-1687), an
English scholar and Graunt’s contemporary, was also his friend and collaborator.
He inspired and encouraged Graunt in his undertaking. Petty’s own Political Arithmetic
has considerably influenced the future development of population studies. He also
contributed a great deal to the enhancement of the social prestige of this new discipline
through the Royal Society. It was Petty who called this newly-founded discipline
“Political Arithmetic” and named himself as its godfather. Graunt and Petty together
even prepared a life table.
Another important contribution to the advancement of population studies was made
in London about thirty years after the publication of Graunt’s Observations by Edmund
Halley (1665-1742), an English astronomer, whose surname has been immortalized
by the comet named after him. In 1693, Halley constructed the first empirical life
table, based on the data of births and deaths. It was he who coined the term
“expectation of life.” Gregory King (1648-1712), another English Scholar, contributed
to the discipline by estimating the population of England and Wales. It is worth
noting that this is the only estimate of the population size of England and Wales
between the time of the Norman Conquest and the first census of England and Wales
held in 1801.
The works of Graunt, Petty and Halley Inspired further research in Germany, the
Netherlands, Sweden and other European countries. In 1761-62, Johann Peter
Sussmilch, a Lutheran a massive book on population, consisting of nearly 1,200
pages and clergyman, who lived during the reign of Frederick the Great, wrote
observations and concluded that generally there is an excess of applicability. Sussmilch
based his findings on a large number of French data, he tried to construct mortality
tables of universal an appendix of 68 Tables. By combining the Swedish, German
and women over men in the adult ages. He is considered to be the first value of
24 the findings increases along with the number of cases on person to emphasize the
“law of large numbers” implying that the which the findings are based on observing Evolution of Population
Studies
the frequencies and fertility, such as age at marriage, disruption of marriage by death,
more prone to remarry. He also studied the factors influencing prolonged nursing
of infants, effects of various diseases, etc. He also observed that deaths were most
frequent in the first few weeks of life and that the number of deaths declined to a
low level around the age of fifteen. With a great deal of effort, he tried to estimate
the population of the world in the third edition of his treatise, The Divine Order,
published in 1765. This was the first such attempt ever made. He also noted, like
Gregory King, that population grew in geometric progression. The observations of
Sussmilch were, however, interpreted mainly in a theological manner. He saw the
divine hand in the regular movements of the populations.
If we read the early thinkers in the field of population studies, hailing from different
social strata, were engaged in varied avocations and had different ideologies. Yet
these amateurs had one thing in common - their desire and enthusiasm to discover
the hitherto unknown relationships, especially in quantitative terms, in the vital processes
of life and death. They all shared respect for empirical observations. Most of the
research on population during the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries was carried
out in the field of mortality and rarely in the field of population dynamics. Such a
one-sided development was not unexpected, as the public was mainly concerned
with conquering, epidemics and diseases. Two social reform programmes concerning
mortality, life insurance and public health also made great demands on mortality
analysis. Insurance companies needed precise data on mortality and hence efforts
were acceptance by Government of the responsibility of protecting the concentrated
on mortality research. Another development was the acceptance by Government
of the responsibility of protecting the health of citizens by undertaking public health
programmes. Evaluation of such efforts in the field of public health called for data
on deaths and related issues.
Check Your Progress 1
Note : a) Write your answer in about 50 words
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) Explain Graunt’s contribution in Population Studies
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2.3.2 Malthus’s Idea on Population Growth and Development

Population thinkers in the eighteenth century observed the relationship between the
potentiality of population growth and available resources, and arrived at the conclusion
that the potentialities of human population growth might surpass the resources required
for its support. Benjamin Franklin published his observations in 1755. The Chinese
writer, Hung Liang-Chi, noted that an increase in the means of subsistence was
not in direct proportion to that of the population in the eighteenth century. These 25
Population Studies: observations, however, did not attract much attention. In 1798, the publication of
An Overview
the essay entitled, “An Essay on the Principles of Population as It Affects the Future
Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M.
Condorcet and other Writers” by Thomas R. Malthus (1766-1834), a young
clergyman, attracted a great deal of attention and gave rise to much controversy.
The main theme of this essay was that while man could increase his subsistence
only in arithmetical progression, his numbers tended to increase in geometrical
progression. Population growth was, therefore, to be regarded as the principal cause
of poverty. The theme of the theory of Malthus will be critically examined in the
chapter on Population Theories. At this point, however, it is enough to point out
that the “Principle of Population” is an important landmark in the history of population
studies (Bhende and Kanitkar, 2010).
Another writers in IGNOU e-Gyankosh have elaborated that Malthus’s famous
treatise ‘An Essay on the Principles of Population’ 1798, he stated that if human
population was allowed to increase in an uncontrolled way, then the number of people
would increase at a faster rate than the food supply. A point would come when
human population would reach the limit beyond which food sources will not be able
to support it. This would check the population growth caused by natural phenomena
like famine or disease. According to Malthus, human society is never at a perfect
stage. When there are constraints in food supply due to increase in population, man
works hard to provide enough for his family. This might lead to an increase in agricultural
production to provide for all, but at the same time man will be complacent when
all his needs are fulfilled. This would push the cycle of overpopulation and food
shortage, all over again. Being a clerk, Malthus validated his theory on moral grounds
that suffering was a way of making human beings realize the virtues of hard work
and moral behaviour. Such kind of suffering due to overpopulation and limited food
supply was inevitable. Malthus made two main assumptions: 1- Food is an essential
component for human existence and 2- Humans have the basic urge to multiply.
Malthus’ theory was based on the notion that the power of population to multiply
is much greater than the power of the earth to provide food for them. In his own
words “passion between the sexes is an inevitable phenomenon” hence, when
unchecked, population would grow at such a high
rate that it would outstrip food supply. According
to him, disease, food shortage and death due to
starvation, were nature’s way to control
population. He proposed that human beings adopt
measures like infanticide, abortion, delay in
marriage and celibacy to check population growth.
According to Malthus, the entire scenario of
population growth is a complex one. Excess https://www.youtube.com/
population meant greater supply of working labour watch?v=TBKYKxwxco8
force ready to work at the available wage rate (Scan for video on Malthus
and in this way they could support their families. theory)
This will lead to an increase in the overall demand
for food outstripping its supply. Thus, prices will increase and inflation will set in.
This inflationary pressure will affect the already distressed poor section of the society.
The poor will work more to improve their situation and will also consider reducing
the family size so that they have less mouth to feed. However, this will only last till
26 the population equals the food supply and the inflation ceases; after which, overall
standard of living will rise and so will the population explosion reaching the same Evolution of Population
Studies
point. Hence, he called it a vicious cycle. Malthus has proposed two main solutions
to the problem of population explosion- positive check and negative check or
preventive check.
Positive check results in increase in death rate. He described this as God’s way of
restoring the natural balance. It includes famines, hunger, epidemics, war and other
natural miseries which cause large-scale deaths. Although it helps in controlling the
population growth, it also causes widespread misery and pain. Hence, it is not regarded
as an ideal solution to population problem. If Malthus is alive, he definitely call Covid-
19 is positive check of population method. Whereas, Preventive or Negative check
method refers to human effort in reducing the birth rate. It is more practically and
logically applicable. Abortion, prostitution, postponement of marriage, birth control
and celibacy are few measures that were advised to be strictly followed in order
to help solve the problem.
Moral Restraint is regarded as a universally applicable solution keeping up with
the ideologies of virtue, economic gain and social improvement. According to this
principle, one should refrain from marriage till the time he is capable of supporting
a family with food, clothing and shelter. Until then he should follow strict celibacy.
In the words of Geoffrey Gilbert, “He (Malthus) went so far as to claim that moral
restraint on a wide scale was the best means indeed, the only means of easing the
poverty of the lower classes.”
Malthus’ theory had great influence on both Charles Darwin and Alfred Wallace,
who are the co-founders of the modern evolutionary theory. In his own words, Darwin
acknowledged, that he was already aware of the struggle for existence’ among different
species of plants and animals. However, it was only after he read Malthus’ work
that he realized that animals in their struggle to survive retained the favourable features
that would help them adjust to the environment, and lost those that were of no use
to them. Thus, the Theory of Natural Selection was born. By the end of the 19th
century, when living standards improved and birth rates dropped in the Western
countries, concerns of overpopulation became irrelevant. However, in under-
developed countries which have agrarian economies, Malthus’ theory often finds
credibility.
As we know that Malthus’s ideas was on the basis of present scenario and he never
thought about the technological innovation in food production and population control
measures. That is why, some critics like Karl Marx, argued that Malthus failed to
recognize the potential of human population to increase food supply. He failed to
comprehend man’s ability to use Science and Technology to increase food supply
to meet the needs of an increasing population.
Thinkers from the field of social sciences have criticized Malthus for his belief that
the human society could never be made perfect. Malthus opposed all political, social
and economic reforms which did not address at controlling birth rate. The methods
proposed by him for checking population growth were mostly impractical. Poor
Laws were popular in England as it provided relief to the people who qualified as
poor under the laws. Malthus was also against this and believed that the poor should
remain in the state of financial distress as such charity only provided short term
benefits. From his writings, some have interpreted Malthus as a stiff and pessimistic
individual. However, to some he was a pragmatic thinker, who brought in fresh ideas 27
Population Studies: to the issue of population growth. But, we cannot say that Malthus was pessimistic
An Overview
as he was not technical person (SLM of ACPSD by Diksha Dave).
2.3.3 Population Studies Ideas of Margaret Sanger and Annie Besant
Feminists have always been divided on the importance of birth control to women’s
liberation. Early feminists such as Annie Besant (1847–1933) in England, Emma
Goldman (1869–1940) and Margaret Sanger (1883–1966) in the United States
were pioneers in the birth control movement. However, most U.S. suffragists at
the start of the 20th century dissociated themselves from birth control, due to the
belief that its advocacy was too controversial and might hurt their principal goal of
gaining women the right to vote. In later year’s feminist activists in rich nations
supported access to contraceptives to allow women and couples to limit fertility,
with the view that this would improve women’s lives and status.
Margaret Sanger migrated to Britain and it was while she was in London she met
Marie Stopes. She later recalled: “She then explained to me that, owing to her previous
unfortunate marriage, she had no experience in
matters of neither contraception, nor any occasion A pessary is a prosthetic
to inform her of their use, could I tell her exactly device inserted into the
what methods were used? I replied that it would give vagina for structural and
me the greatest pleasure to bring to her home such pharmaceutical purposes.
devices as I had in my possession. Accordingly, we Source- A (2022)
met again the following week for dinner in her home,
and inspected and discussed the French pessary which she stated she then saw
for the first time. I gave her my own pamphlets, all of which contained contraceptive
information.”After hearing Sanger’s story Marie Stopes decided to start a birth-
control campaign in Britain. She knew, it would be dangerous as several people in
Britain, including Richard Carlile, Charles Bradlaugh and Annie Besant, had been
sent to prison for advocating birth-control.
At the March 1925 International Birth Control gathering in New York City, Dr. S.
Adolphus Knopf, a member of Margaret Sanger’s American Birth Control League
(ABCL) warned of the menace posed by the “black” and “yellow” peril. Margaret
Sanger spoke of sterilizing those she designated as “unfit”; a plan she said would
be the “salvation of American civilization”. She also spoke of those who were,
“irresponsible and reckless” among whom she included those “whose religious
scruples prevent their exercising control over their numbers”. From the beginning,
Sanger’s advocacy of ‘sex education’ reflected her interest in population control
and birth prevention among the “unfit”. The eugenic theme figured prominently in
the Birth Control Review, which Sanger founded in 1917. She published such articles
as “Some Moral Aspects of Eugenics” (June1920), “The Eugenic Conscience”
(February1921), “The Purpose of Eugenics” (December 1924), “Birth Control and
Positive Eugenics” (July1925), “Birth Control: The True Eugenics” (August 1928)
and many others. Sanger’s obsession with eugenics can be traced back to her own
family. One of 11 children, she wrote in the autobiographical book, ‘My Fight for
Birth Control’(1931), that “I associated poverty, toil, unemployment, drunkenness,
cruelty, quarrelling, fighting, debts and jails with large families.” Just as important
was the impression in her childhood of an inferior family status, exacerbated by
the iconoclastic, “free-thinking” views of her father, whose “anti-Catholic attitudes
did not make for his popularity” in a predominantly Irish community.
28
In the 6th International Neo-Malthusian and Birth Evolution of Population
Studies
Control Conference held in New York in 1925,
an Indian representative, Taraknath Das,
countered the “Yellow peril”, with evidence for
the “white peril”, and while endorsing the
dissemination of “birth control, emphasized that
“it has to be only a part of a programme that
aimed at poverty, poor health and ignorance, that
were the root cause of India’s population
problem”. He looked at birth control within a
broader health and social development The racist cartoon of The Yellow
perspective to afford greater freedom to women Terror in all His Glory (1899)
and greater opportunity for real education. A depicts an anti-colonial Qing
demographer, Louis Dublin warned against Dynasty Chinese man standing
over a fallen white woman, who
disregard of “the permanent interests of the state” represents the Western world.
by promoting birth control. He cautioned on the Source- https://en.wikipedia.
issue of contraceptive safety and reliability. The org/wiki/Yellow_Peril
issue of “control of fertility” remained unresolved:
“how to be controlled, by whom, and for what
purpose”.

2.3.4 Mahatma Gandhi

Mahatma Gandhi had assessed and felt the pulse of the masses as no other leader
or elitist had done. It is a pity that many Neo-Malthusian scholars and stand-alone
family planning activists accuse Gandhi ji of his negative attitude to population issue.
From there cords of Margaret Sanger’s encounter with him, it is very clear that
Gandhi had a clear vision that Indians should have smaller, but healthier families.
He had agreed that uncontrolled reproduction was a social problem. He was a strong
advocate for gender justice and women’s empowerment for enabling women to
take decisions on child bearing and to negotiate with their husbands to observe
abstinence. The birth control program initiated in Bombay and Madras did not spread
very rapidly because of Mahatma Gandhi’s strong moralop position to theuse of
artificial methods of birth control. Gandhi the most influential leader of congress
party and the Indian freedom movement, conceded that India’s population growth
had to be contained by reducing the number of children each couple had, but he
denounced artificial methods of birth control. He argued that sexual abstinence was
the only ethical means of birth control. He wrote periodically in his magazines, young
India and Navjivan (New Life): “The society that has already become enervated
through a variety of causes will become still further enervated by the adoption of
artificial methods. Those men, therefore, who are light-heartedly advocating artificial
methods cannot do better than study the subject afresh, state their injurious activity
and popularize brahmacharya (celibacy) both for married and un-married. This is
the only noble and straight method of birth control (Gandhi, 1925 cited in Prabhu,
1959:5)”
In spite of opposition put forward by Gandhi for the use of birth control methods,
the Women’s movement in India and the various voluntary organizations continued
to propagandize and support the use of artificial methods of family planning. The
All India Women’s conference, constituted to improve the status of women in society,
at their annual meeting in Trivandrum (Kerala) focused on birth control and invited 29
Population Studies: Martin and Sanger. A number of opposing views were expressed, but after a
An Overview
considerable debate, the conference adopted a resolution approving birth control
for health and welfare reasons. Martin and Sanger took this opportunity to meet
Gandhi and discuss with him the use of artificial methods for family planning despite
their efforts to convert him to their side, Gandhi stood firm and rejected the use of
artificial methods of family planning.

2.4 MOVEMENT ON POPULATION STUDIES

Population studies started with mainly two biological events – birth and death rates
and socio-economic and political process – migration or movement of people from
one geographic location to another. During the first two decades of the 20th century,
a steady stream of Indian intellectuals and civil servants visited England for higher
education or for training for posts in the Indian Civil Service. During their stay in
England, they were exposed to Malthusian theories and to the establishment of Neo-
Malthusian leagues in England and elsewhere in Europe. As a result, they became
aware of positive checks likely to operate on a population increasing beyond its
means of subsistence. In the Western World, India was routinely cited as an example
of a population likely to be subjected to such positive checks-wars, famines and
epidemics- because of the extreme poverty prevailing in the country and the prolific
breeding.
The Indians who visited England became keenly committed to the ideas of birth
control as means of regulating population growth and formed the Neo-Malthusian
League in Madras in July, 1929. Some prominent public personalities joined the
league in Madras. They published a propaganda journal of high merit; the Madras
Birth Control Bulletin (Himes, 1963, p,123). They had periodic discussion on
population problem and measures that could be taken to control fertility, including
the propagation of various artificial methods of family planning. Population control
has been a central concern of population scientists and activists throughout the 20th
century. In its negative and over-simplistic sense, it has remained a popular topic
of discussion among the elites such as academics, doctors, businessmen, political
leaders and bureaucrats. Even in the pre-independent India, from P.K. Wattal, B.T.
Ranadive and Radhakamal Mukherjee in 1930s (some demographers subscribe to
similar views even today), to the series of politicians taking steps to check the increase
in population to the bureaucrats, Megan and Leonard Rogers have, shaped the attitude
of authoritarianism of the higher and middle class in India on the population issue
over last 70 years. Radhakamal Mukherjee convened the first Indian Population
Conference in Lucknow in 1936. He also headed the sub-committee on population
of the “National Planning Committee” of the Indian National Congress in the 1930s.
Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi, and the visionary leader and first Prime
Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, opposed the inhuman, negative, anti-poor and anti-women
tendencies and narrow approaches to population control. It was evident when India
introduced the official family planning programme as a part of the 5-year development
plans from 1951.
The Post-World War II international movement for population control and family
planning had its ideological foundations. Demographers, birth control proponents
and other population activists shifted their attention from the poor and minorities
30 and started paying attention towards the poor and underdeveloped countries. In
the 1950s and 60s, U.S. Government was influenced by population activists to lead Evolution of Population
Studies
on the international plat form. The fear of the “population bomb” and “population
explosion” was too much similar to that of a nuclear war. Dooms dayers, like Paul
Ehrlich, cemented international fears of population explosion in India and China,
and the threat to security of U.S.A Neo-Malthusian twist was given to the issue by
arguing that backwardness, poverty, unemployment and all other hardships in poor
countries were only due to “over-population”, and hence, birth control must be the
priority.
The Neo-Malthusian view of economic development argued that over population
is a cause of poverty, rather than a result of poverty. This argument was based on
the assumption that poor and underdeveloped countries and particularly lower class
communities are responsible for their poverty. Their fertility, therefore, must be
controlled to ensure greater economic prosperity for the families of the poor, for
their nations, and for the world as a whole, since the large poor populations in the
third world are considered a drain on the world’s resources.
The Marxists considered the Neo-Malthusian view as “reactionary”. Other anti-
Neo-Malthusians and liberalists like E. Dupreel, the Belgian sociologist and Julian
Simon became the exponents of a safer and more rational view of population. Many
economists dismissed the ‘Club of Rome’ Report. Simon (1981) remarked “People
with a lot of education tend to lack respect for the capacity of people who are
poor and have had less education, to cope, and may therefore worry that they won’t
be able to handle their problems in their parts of the world”. One of the direct
outcomes and fallouts of the international and U.S. policy and strategy in the 1950s
and 60s in India was the system of “family planning targets” initiated in 1966. After
the slow phase-by-phase introduction of a “clinical (camp)” approach and an
“extension (educational)” plus Information, Education and Communication (IEC)
approach, an aggressive method-specific targeting and new invasive method for
women (like IUD) were taken up. The National Family Planning Programme was
incorporated within the MCH system, where MCH workers were given targets to
motivate a particular number of men and women to “accept” different kinds of
contraceptives month-by-month. A system of rewards and penalties, and competitions
was build-in for State Governments, Hospitals, Districts and MCH workers.
The evolution of population stabilization efforts in India by government goes back
to the onset of five year development plans in 1951-52. A national programme was
launched which emphasized ‘family planning’ to the extent necessary for reducing
birth rates to stabilize the population at a level consistent with the requirement of
national economy. A clinic-based approach with equal emphasis on natural method
like rhythm as on some contraceptives was taken cautiously, along with awareness
building and research on new contraceptives and their acceptability. A Family Planning
Research and Programme Committee was constituted, which in its first meeting at
Bombay in July 1953 took quite a comprehensive and broader view of the family
planning. To quote their report: “The committee emphasized that the family planning
programme should not be conceived of in the narrow sense of birth control or merely
of spacing of the birth of children. The purpose of Family Planning was to promote,
as far as possible, the growth of the family as a unit of society, in a manner designed
to facilitate the fulfillment of those conditions which were necessary for the welfare
of the unit from the social, economic and cultural points of view. The functions of a
Family Planning Centre would include education, marriage counseling, the spacing 31
Population Studies: of children, and advice on such other measures (including on infertility) as necessary
An Overview
to promote welfare of the families”.
Interest in Fertility: Research in the field of fertility was sporadic during most of
the nineteenth century. There were several reasons for this. In the first place, the
social motivation for the study of fertility was not strong. Birth rates were not as
high as in Asian countries and therefore did not cause any concern. Because of
agricultural development, the production of food supplies increased at a much higher
rate than population. Fertility differentials were not very conspicuous; there were
no fluctuations in the birth rate, nor were there any visible trends in its decline. It
was in France that fertility first started declining towards the end of the eighteenth
century a decline which continued even in the nineteenth century. The Chief Statistician
General of France commented in 1847 that he considered the moderate fertility of
French families as “the indicator of intellectual progress, order and foresight.” It
concern regarding the declining French fertility arose in France only after her defeat
by Prussia in 1870. Gradually, throughout Europe, interest was generated in the
problem of fertility decline and fertility differentials.
Check Your Progress 2
Note : a) Write your answer in about 50 words
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) Describe Birth Control mechanism in Indian perspective
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
2) Explain Indian demographer who has estimated population and its impact
...................................................................................................................
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2.5 LET US SUM UP

Population studies is a multi-disciplinary approach and many thinkers have explained
population dynamics and its impact on development. Population always cause and
consequences of development explained by various demographers in India and also
of the world. We have read in this unit and find out many ideas derived from literatures
over the time. Population Study evolution has started with birth and death rate and
it has taken many forms of birth control.

2.6 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READINGS

Bhende, A and Kanitkar, T (2010) Principles of Population Studies, Himalayan Pub,
Mumbai.
32
Chandna, RC (2004) Geography of Population, Kalyani Pub, New Delhi. Evolution of Population
Studies
Donald, J. Bogue (1969), Principles of Demography, John Wiley, New York, USA
IGNOU SLM form ACPSD, Block 1 Unit 2, downloaded from e-Gyankosh.
Srinivasan, K (UNFPA, 2011), Training Manual On Demographic techniques, Office
of Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India. Downloaded from https://
india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/TrainingManualonDemographics.
Techniques %28forwebsite%29.pdf on 12th October 2022.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Peril on 12th October 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBKYKxwxco8 video on Malthus theory)
on 12th Oct 2022
A (2022) https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pessary on 12th October 2022

2.7 CHECK YOUR PROGRESS - POSSIBLE

ANSWERS
Check Your Progress 1
Q1. Explain Graunt’s contribution in Population Studies
A. Graunt is known as father of demography, who has started measuring
mortality rate scientifically which has lead population studies. He critically
examined the data on mortality and fertility and pointed out their weaknesses,
biases and inadequacies. He is, therefore, deemed to be a pioneer, for he
started an important tradition of evaluating any population data for various
biases and lacuna and of devising adjustments in them to minimize the
weaknesses and biases before using such data for research purposes.
Check Your Progress 2
Q1. Describe Birth Control mechanism in Indian perspective
A. Many Indian population thinkers have ideas of birth control by natural
methods such as celibacy (Brahmacharya) but many conferences and
meetings have emphasized that artificial control of birth is need of hours
and females have right to limit birth control by any means. Contraceptive
methods such as condom and IUD have treated as artificial birth control
mechanism in India.
Q2. Explain Radhakamal Mukherjee as population scientist in India
A. Radhakamal Mukherjee convened the first Indian Population Conference
in Lucknow in 1936. He also headed the sub-committee on population of
the “National Planning Committee” of the Indian National Congress in the
1930s. Radhakamal Mukherjee in 1930s to the series of politicians taking
steps to check the increase in population to the bureaucrats, Megan and
Leonard Rogers have, shaped the attitude of authoritarianism of the higher
and middle class in India on the population issue over last 70 years.

33
Population Studies:
An Overview UNIT 3 POPULATION STRUCTURE
Structure
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Concept of Population Structure
3.3 Significance of Population Structure
3.4 Data for Population Structure
3.5 Changes in Age Structure
3.5.1 Age-sex Pyramid for Rural and Urban Areas
3.5.2 Median Age
3.5.3 Age Ratio
3.6 Dependency Ratio
3.7 Age Group Population Structure
3.7.1 Child population Aged 0-14 years
3.7.2 Child Population aged 0-6 years
3.7.3 Working Age Population
3.7.4 Ageing Population
3.7.5 Elderly and Households
3.7.6 Household Heads among the Elderly
3.7.7 Factors Affecting Age Composition
3.8 Sex Composition in Population Structure
3.8.1 Overall Sex Ratio
3.8.2 Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB)
3.8.3 Child Sex Ratio
3.8.4 Elderly Sex ratio
3.9 Let Us Sum Up
3.10 References and Suggested Readings
3.11 Check Your Progress- Possible Answers

3.1 INTRODUCTION
Population structure is important concept of population studies which deals with
age and sex composition of population across the region or geographic location.
Population structure is also known as age –sex population composition in the
demographic studies of the area. Age and sex composition is important determinants
of economic active population and labour force participation. It also helps to know
the demographic dividend of the country and helps in population policy formulation
over the time. Age–sex pyramid is the best tool to study the population structure
of any country. The other imported of population structure are the social structure
of population, religious composition and residential or spatial distribution of the
population. For example, population structure tells us that how many people are
belonging to particular social or religious groups, working and dependent population,
34 etc in both rural and urban dwellings.
After reading this unit learner will be able to: Population Structure

(i) Explain the concept and importance of age structure of population and
individual
(ii) Discuss age-sex pyramid of the nation
(iii) Describe demographic dividend and labour force
(iv) Differentiate the working age population and dependent population

3.2 CONCEPT OF POPULATION STRUCTURE

As we know that age and sex are two basic components of the characteristics of
population. Human being starts their life only with these two characteristics and
rest all are societal imposition. The age structure at any point of time, is an indication
of the dynamics played by the most important factors for demographic change i.e.
fertility and mortality. This structure allows us to understand the supply of manpower,
school going population and elderly in any population which further help us for man
power planning. Age-sex structure is constructed mostly by using population
distribution by five years age group for both the sexes. It is a bar diagram with age
group in the vertical axis and proportion of the population in the horizontal axis.
Vertical axis is place at the centre and bar diagram is constructed with the proportion
of male and female population. Male population is plotted in the left hand side and
female population is plotted in the right hand side. As the base population represented
by the children is mostly higher than the population at the older ages, the diagram
looks like a pyramid. It is called age-sex pyramid.
The importance to study age structure in any country arises with the occurrence of
demographic transition when the country experiences low fertility and low mortality.
The effect of these two factors (fertility and mortality) shapes the population depending
on the differences in pace of their decline. Transition from high fertility to low fertility
installs the supply of young in the population. Similarly, reduction in death and increase
in the span of life retains older population for long. Thus, shape of the age structure
provides an indication about the level of fertility and mortality. Any country where
people below 15 years old are large in proportion has a powerful built-in momentum
for population growth until and unless there is sharp rise in mortality. The total number
of births will be large even if the women bear only one or two children when these
large numbers of below 15 females enter into the reproductive age.
According to Srinivasan (UNFPA, 2011), age of individual and age of population
are different items in population structure. In terms of age of an individual, the number
of birth day completed by that time. So, an age given as 25 years, means that the
person is at present between 25 and 26 in terms of completed years of life. In
operational definition, this is called chronological age of an individual. Similarly, age
of population means the average age of its population distribution which indicates
the mean age of the population increase or decrease with time, unlike that of an
individual. In this unit, you will read the age and sex composition which are two
main components of population structure.

3.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF POPULATION STRUCTURE

Sex and age are the primary variables that are necessary for almost all classifications 35
Population Studies: related to population characteristics. Both age and sex define the limits of society’s
An Overview
reproductive potential (Premi, 2011). Population structure is most important tools
to know the birth, death and migration rate at particular point of time of the any
country. Population structure is changing in most of the developed countries such
as Japan which shows population structure elderly proportionately more than young
age population while India is younger age population countries. Population structure
tells us the birth rate at particular time and mortality rate also varying by age and
sex in the society. Population structures also important in commercial purposes,
technical and policy purposes which helps formulating population policies, health
policies, and other social welfare scheme. Age composition is important in population
structure to know the reproductive age especially female age, health facilities for
elderly, educational facilities for children, employment for working age population,
sports facilities, voters, etc. Similarly, sex composition in population structure also
play important role in health policies and health services. Sex is biological construct
while gender is social construct and both sex and gender is important in society.
The concept of gender and sex is LGBTQ (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender
and Queer) which is important for policy formulation in each group of gender. Each
group of gender has their demand and health problems. Sex ratio (SR) is another
composition of population sex structure which means females (F) per 1000 males
(M) in the population composition (SR= F/M*1000). Sex ratio by age is useful
measure to know the migration differentials, mortality differentials and sex ratio at
birth.
Check Your Progress 1
Note : a) Write your answer in about 50 words

b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) Explain briefly concept of age and sex composition of population
...................................................................................................................
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3.4 DATA FOR POPULATION STRUCTURE

Population Census of any country is important source of reliable data of age and
sex. It has found that due to digit preference the quality of data is affected. Figure
3.1 shows line graph that age heaping is higher at peaks of ages ending with digit 0
and 5. For example, last digit of age 10, 15, 20, 25….. 90, 95, 100+ peak is
highest as compared to the 12, 13, and so on. It happened because of reporting
of age during the survey. Most of the people reported their age by saying 10 or 15
years. Some of the respondent assumes that 5 and 10 are good or lucky number
and they preferred that digit. It affects quality of age data which affects population
policy. We can see in Aadhar card (UID), date of birth mostly mentioned as 01-
01-2001, which indicates that people have preferred date of birth by default. It is
mostly seen in aadhar of children. Now, this error is over because each birth is
happening in health centre and birth certificate issued by that centre.
36
 Figure 3.1: Single Year Population in India, 2011 Population Structure

Source of Data: Census of India (2011), C13 Table

Thus, errors in age data are by two ways- reporting by respondents and recording
by enumerator. It is called errors and biases during survey. It is occurring due to
misreporting by respondents owing to intended or unintended mindset. Some of
them are not stated their ages. In this condition enumerator should asked any events
happened before and after births and accordingly record their age. For example, if
any old person has not memorize their date of births and birth years then, enumerator
asked are you born before independence or after independence (1947).
Errors in age data can be measure by using various indices such as Whipple’s
Index, Myers’ Blended Index, digit preference quotients, Accuracy Index,
smoothening of age distributions, etc. Whipple’s index is used to measure the digit
preference in age ‘Zero (0)’ while Myers’ index used to measure the digit preference
in age ‘five(5)’. All these methods will be read in the other unit of this course.
Thus, census data on age are subject to several types of errors. Selective net
under enumeration of infants and young adults, rounding off ages to attractive
numbers and deliberate misstatement of age all influence the quality of age data
reported in the census.

3.5 CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE

India is the second largest populated countries with the proportion of young age
population. During the past 60 years or so, India’s population has grown steadily
without being affected by any large scale events like wars, pestilence, famine, or
international migration. Consequently, its age structure has not got any distortions.
It is noteworthy that India has a young age structure with almost one third (37%)
of the total population in 2011 being children below the age of 15 years, and only
6.8 per cent above the age of 60 years (Table 3.1). India, though experiencing
condition of youth bulge, the growth of elderly population is the highest among all
groups and 0 to14 age group has experienced negative growth rate in last two census
years (Table 3.1).
37
Population Studies: Table 3.1 Distribution of total population of India by age
An Overview
Age group Census 1991 Census 2001 Census 2011 % Changes % Changes
(1991-2001) (2001-2011)

Total Population 838.6 1028.6 1210 22.66 17.64

0-14 312.4 (37.2) 363.5 (35.34) 372.4 (30.78) 16.36 2.45

15-59 464.8 (55.42) 585.6 (56.9) 730.1 (60.34) 25.99 24.68

60+ 56.7 (6.76) 76.6 (7.45) 103.8 (8.58) 35.10 35.51

Index of ageing 18.15 21.07 27.87 16.11 32.27

Age not stated 4.7 (0.56) 2.7 (0.26) 4.5 (0.37) -42.55 66.67

Source: Compiled from Census of India of different years. Population in Million. Figures in the parenthesis
are proportions to Total

Index of ageing which is defined as the ratio of the population aged 60 years and
above per 100 of population aged 0-14 years. Index of ageing indicates the dependent
population trends and pattern over time. In the world, highest index of ageing has
reported by Japan followed by Germany and Sweden, where lowest index of ageing
has been recorded in Mexico and Zambia. In India, index of ageing has been recorded
18.15, 21.07 and 27.87 per cent in 1991, 2001 and 2011 respectively.
In case of India, the very common phenomena observed after independence is its
broad base characterized by high birth rate and tapering top characterized by low
expectation of life at birth. In each census shape of the pyramid continues to change
(Fig 3.2). With increase in longevity and decline in fertility the base started tapering
top started becoming broad. With shrinkage in young children, initially proportion
of population in working age group increases creating a structure with ‘youth bulge’.
The governments of these countries get the opportunity to use them in economically
productive way. The situation when they could be productively used is called
demographic dividend whereas the government that fails to reap the dividend may
suffer from youth unemployment and unrest.
Figure 3.2 Changing age structure of India, 1961-2011

38
 Population Structure

N.B. Age-sex structure is prepared using census data of different series.

Figure 3.3 Rural Urban difference in Age Structure

3.5.1 Age-sex Pyramid for Rural and Urban Areas

Though the major determinants of age-sex structure are fertility and mortality dynamics,
role of migration cannot be ignored. Role of migration can clearly be visible in urban
areas as a major stream of young male migration is from rural to urban areas, mostly
in search of jobs. Thus, sex ratio in urban areas mostly favours the males. However,
in case of India, the structure seems, majorly determined by fertility and mortality.
Urban areas of India experiencing rapid fertility decline along with increase in longevity.
Thus, a shrinking base is clearly visible between 2001 and 2011. However, 2011
has shown a pronounced youth bulge in India’s urban population which is contributed
also by migration. Rural areas on the other hand, though also changing, is still with
a wide base which is because of higher fertility (Fig. 3.3). They are contributing to
the major part of the population growth in today’s India.
All the age sex pyramid shows large base which indicates population has a very
high potential of future growth and may take 60-70 years if not more before it
becomes a stationary population. In framing the National Population Policy 2000,
the Government of India has fixed the target date for population stabilization (becoming
stationery) as the year 2045. It is doubtful if the country’s population would be
become stationary by then implying zero population growth rate. 39
Population Studies: Fig 3.4 World Trends in Median Age of Population, 1950-2015
An Overview

Source: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/

3.5.2 Median Age

The median age which is indicative towards the age structure by implying that 50
percent each of the population is above and below (figure 3.4). When demographic
transition is achieved, longevity increases and fertility decreases. Thus, median age
of the population increases. When society progresses from ‘youth bulge’ to ageing
median age increases. Higher the median age in a society lower will be the working
age population. Median age of the more developed region has reached to more
than 40 years whereas in the least developed regions it is only around 20 years.
Among the major countries, Germany and Japan have recorded median age more
than 46 years. India’s trend follows a similar pattern that of less developed region/
country without (except) China. India started experiencing a steady increase in median
age only after 1990s with decline in fertility and mortality. India’s median age is
around 26 years in 2015.

3.5.3 Age Ratio

According to Mandal et al (2007), “the reliability of data on the age composition
of five year age groups is usually of more concern to the analyst than the accuracy
of reporting of single years of age. It is possible to evaluate the data by age groups
on the basis of age ratios. Generally, one would expect the number of persons in
one age group to closely approach the mean of the number in each of the two adjacent
age groups. An age ratio compares these two numbers by dividing the reported
number of persons in the age group by the number expected on the basis of the
number of persons reported in each of the adjacent age groups.”
The age ratio per 100 females aged 25-29, for example is arrived at as follows-

40
We should also know that age ratio can be calculated for each age group (provided Population Structure
the intervals are equal) except in the case of youngest and the oldest age groups.
Generally age ratio should be studied for a series of age groups, preferably for the
entire span of age for which they can be calculated. A ratio under 100 implies that
either – members of the group were selectively under enumerated or – errors in
age reporting resulted in mis-classifying persons who belonged to the age group. A
ratio of more than 100 suggests the opposite of one or the other or both of these
conditions.
Check Your Progress 2
Note : a) Write your answer in about 50 words
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the
unit.
1) Describe population pyramid and its use in population policy
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................

3.6 DEPENDENCY RATIO

In order to understand age structure, knowledge about the concept of dependency
is essential. Dependency ratio is ratio of dependent population (<15 & >60 year)
on working age population. Working age population in case of India is defined as
population between 15-59 years of age, whereas for some other countries it is defined
as population of age 15-64. Dependency ratio is categorized as young age dependency
ratio (YADR), old age dependency ratio (OADR). Combining these two we get
total dependency ratio. We find out them as follows:

YADR =

OADR =

DR =

However, it is important to note that total dependency ratio sometimes is misleading

as it does not weigh the age structure.
Table 3.2 Dependency Ratio, India 1961-2011

Dependency 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

ratio

Young age DR 75.90 78.68 79.92 76.16 73.08 69.69

Old age DR 8.98 9.66 9.77 10.69 11.58 11.99

Total DR 84.88 88.34 89.69 86.85 84.65 81.68

Source: Calculated on the basis of Census of India of different series

41
Population Studies: In case of India, decline in young age dependency
An Overview
is clearly visible along with the increase in old
age dependency. Because of large working age
population, overall dependency is still moderate
in India (Table 3.2).
It is pertinent to mention here that the young age
dependency ratio is high in the fast growing
population and old age dependency ratio is very
Source:
low. Developed country have a large proportion https://www.youtube.com/watch?
of population aged 60 and above, hence they v=DCKWhHtlDFg&t=3s
have large OADR. Index of ageing brings out Dependency Ratio video: Scan QR
this point more clearly since it is more than 100 code for learn
in Japan, Germany, Sweden and UK and is just
100 in France and USA (1990s).

Figure 3.5: Dependency Ratio in India, 1950-2021

Figure 3.6: Dependency Ratio in World, 2021

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-of-working-age-population?
42 country=~NER
The developed nations consider aged persons as these who are above the age of Population Structure
65 years. In that case, the dependency ratio is defined as population (0-14+65years
and above) / population (15-64 years)* 100. In this definition the numerator becomes
somewhat smaller while the denominator increases correspondingly, resultant of this
both the dependency ratio and the index of ageing become smaller.
As we know that if working age population is lower proportionately to nonworking
population then tends to reduce savings and social advancement of a country as a
large proportion of scarce resources are diverted towards consumption. Also an
increasingly large number of persons continue to enter the working ages swelling
the ranks of the unemployed. Further, certain social and economic processes such
as family formation and home purchase, job seeking, retirement and savings, migration
and mobility are closely related to the age composition of a population. Although
the proportion of senior citizens in the country is small compared to most of the
developed and many developing countries their absolute size is greater than the total
population of most countries in the world.

3.7 AGE GROUPED POPULATION STRUCTURE

If we see the data structure of the population it is found that age structure of a
country’s population is normally presented in five-yearly age groups. As we know
that below 14 years population is not considered as working age population and
are called child labour not allowed in workforce participation in any country. Here
you can read age grouped population into child population 0-14 years, child population
aged 0-6 years, working age population, elderly and dependent population.

3.7.1 Child Population Aged 0-14 years

There is perceptible decline in the proportion of children below the age of 15 years.
The decline during the past 30 years due to a decline in birth rates. Table 3.3 clearly
shows that slightly more than 37 crore population (30.76%) were below 15 years
in which male and female are about 19 crore and 18 crore respectively in India
during 2011. Even though child labour is not allowed, but nearly 43 lakhs were
main worker in India, who belongs to age of 5-14 years in 2011. Nearly 10 lakhs
male main workers higher than their female counterpart during the same period.

3.7.2 Child Population Aged 0-6 years

Because of special tabulation of population aged 0-6 years, we consider here the
variation in it for the major states and Delhi, and all the states have reported that
this age group population has declined over the time (Premi, 2001). Considering
the major states, it is observed that the decline in the proportion of girls aged 0-6
years was quite substantial compared to that in respect of boys in Haryana, Punjab,
Delhi and Uttrakhand. This points to shortage of girls at birth therein as pointed
out earlier while considering sex ratio at birth.

3.7.3 Working Age Population

Generally, working age is considered at 15-59 years in India, while at international
level it is 15-64 years. Table 3.3 shows that in 2011 India has reported about 73
crores population were belong to working age which is slightly higher than 60
percentage of total population in India in 2011. Table 3.3 shows that young adults 43
Population Studies: (15-24 years) are about 19 percent (23 crores) and they are prospective job seeker
An Overview
in India. It also indicates that the childbearing age group has systematically increased
implying population momentum that can lead to more births even after decline in
birth rate.
Table 3.3: Population by grouped age and main worker in India, 2011

Age group years Population Main Worker

Persons Males Females Persons Males Females
0-4 112806778 58632074 54174704 - - -
5-9 126928126 66300466 60627660 1108808 630875 477933
10-14 132709212 69418835 63290377 3244439 2033172 1211267
15-19 120526449 63982396 56544053 17703310 12721891 4981419
20-24 111424222 57584693 53839529 38664170 28977411 9686759
25-29 101413965 51344208 50069757 48666298 36901575 11764723
30-34 88594951 44660674 43934277 47152411 35600323 11552088
35-39 85140684 42919381 42221303 47503671 35372529 12131142
40-49 134756439 69683500 65072939 77295643 58397073 18898570
50-59 88215309 45299278 42916031 47440004 36456219 10983785
60-69 64118690 31646075 32472615 23840363 18216604 5623759
70-79 28441345 14142102 14299243 6917739 5560331 1357408
80+ 11289005 5283695 6005310 1850952 1463786 387166
Age not stated 4489802 2372881 2116921 1177763 878187 299576
0-14, 5-14 372444116 194351375 178092741 4353247 2664047 1689200
15-59 730072019 375474130 354597889 324425507 244427021 79998486
60+ 103849040 51071872 52777168 32609054 25240721 7368333
15-24 231950671 121567089 110383582 56367480 41699302 14668178
Total 1210854977 623270258 587584719 362565571 273209976 89355595

Source: Census of India, 2011 (B1 Table)

3.7.4 Ageing Population

The proportions of children in the population decrease and those of old persons
increase is known as the aging of the population (Bhende and Kanitkar, 2010).
The senior citizens (aged 60 years and above) in India numbered 10.38 crores
in 2011. This population has been increasing over census because of increasing
life expectation and better health facilities. Female elderly population is more
than male elderly in India. Customorily female life expectancy is more than male
across the world. Although the proportion of senior citizens in the country is small
compared to most of the developed and many developing countries, their absolute
size is greater than the total population of most countries in the world (Premi,
2001).

3.7.5 Elderly and Households

In India society, elderly person are most respected in the household as well as in
44 neighborhood. Of the total households in the country three tenth had at least one
elderly person. Among them there was only one elderly person in 71 percent of Population Structure

the households. There are 3.1 million households that comprise only one elderly
person and none else. Three tenths of them had only one male person while seven
tenths had only one female person. Of the one person elderly households, 81 percent
are in rural areas and the rest in urban areas. The situation regarding the proportion
of male and female headed households is no different in rural and urban population.
These data bring out the problem of elderly females living alone in the country
(Premi 2001).

3.7.6 Household Heads among the Elderly

We have separate data for the elderly in 60-69, and so on group. At the national
level female headed households comprised 17.4 percent with a slightly higher
proportion in urban areas. Proportion of female headed households was somewhat
higher for 70-79 year age group but fell sharply for women aged 80 years and
over. Himachal Pradesh has reported higher female headed households followed
by Uttarakhand. In contrast, most of the northern and central Indian states have
low rates of female headship. These are the states starting from Jammu to Madhya
Pradesh. The reason may be due to patriarchal mindset in the northern states. In
Muslim community and in Jat and Rajput community where women are in low esteem
is one of the reasons of lower female headed households.

3.7.7 Factors Affecting Age Composition

As you have read above that age composition is influenced by the fertility, mortality,
and migration over the period of time. Other factors are wars, famine, pandemic,
etc. We have also seen in the population pyramid, India is characterized by broad
base pyramid which indicates high birth rate, if birth and death rates declined for
some point of time then age sex or population pyramid shows narrow base and
steep sides.

Thus age structures are influenced by birth, death and migration and these three
components of demographic studies are the determinants factors of age structure
of population. Now we have to read the sex composition of the population structure.

3.8 SEX COMPOSITION IN POPULATION

STRUCTURE
Sex ratio is the basic tool for the analysis for the composition of population. It is
well established that males out-number females at birth which means sex ratio at
birth is normally about 105.5. High birth rate is the best determinant of high sex
ratio (Mandal, et al, 2007). After understanding the age structure it is important
for us to know the sex ratio by major important age group. Sex ratio is analyzed
to understand the degree of balance between two sexes of the population i.e. males
and females. This ratio is normalized to refer to a standard unit of people, usually
100 persons but in India it is measured as female per 1000 of males. Though, in
general, the number of male and female should be more or less the same, but that
did not happen actually. At birth, sex ratio among human population in general is
105 males per 100 female babies. Gender differential in mortality is a universal
phenomenon. In the society without any gender based discrimination, chances of 45
Population Studies: death for the male neonatals and infants are more than the female babies which
An Overview
further balances the sex ratio in favour of the females. However, in some countries
differential treatment to female baby overwhelms the biological difference and female
deficit occurs in the population due to excess mortality. Sex ratio needs to be studied,
specially for India in four components like i) overall sex ratio (OSR) ii)sex ratio at
birth (SRB), iii) child sex ratio (CSR), iv) elderly sex ratio (ESR).
Table 3.4 Trends in Sex Ratio in India

Year Overall Sex Child Sex Elderly

Ratio Ratio (0-6 years) Sex Ratio

1961 941 976 992

1971 930 964 946

1981 934 962 964

1991 926 945 931

2001 933 927 1029

2011 943 918 1033

Source : Computed from Census of India from various years survey

3.8.1 Overall Sex Ratio

In most of the countries in the World where son preference is not entertained, over
all sex ratio favours the females. World sex ratio is 98 female per 100 male (source:
http://statisticstimes.com/population/
countries-by-sex-ratio.php). Numbers of
The use of pre-natal diagnostic
populated countries in Asia have sex ratio
techniques is restricted:
favouring males. That dominated the overall
world sex ratio in favour of the males. - for the purpose of detecting
genetic or metabolic disorders or
India, unlike other developed countries, chromosomal abnormalities or
remained female deficit for more than a certain congenital mal-formations
century. Here we have the sex ratio since or sex linked disorders;
1901 (Fig.2.4). In 1901 sex ratio in India -for the prevention of the misuse
was 972 and till the recent census of 2011, of such techniques for the purpose
sex ratio of India remained much lower of pre-natal sex determination
than the level recorded by 1901. More leading to female foeticide; and
alarmingly, after Independence, the sex - for matters connected there with
ratio was declining almost steadily till or incidental thereto.
1971. 1991 has recorded the lowest sex
ratio of 926. Since 1991, some improvement in the sex ratio is observed (Table
3.4). To understand the gender dynamics in the overall sex ratio, it is important
for us to analyse the child sex ratio and elderly sex ratio separately. This will
help us to understand the vulnerability of the section of the females to
discrimination.

46
 Figure 3.7 Trends in sex ratio, India Population Structure

3.8.2 Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB)

Sex ratio at births and deaths are traditionally considered as two important
measures to examine the quality of data in any population (James, et al,). Sex
ratio at birth is mostly standard ideal as 105 male per 100 female births. However,
due to higher infant mortality among the males in most of the society, number of
females increases in over all sex ratio. This pattern does not hold true in the society
like India where gender based discrimination is observed. The discrimination starts
before birth through the use of ultrasound technology (Sonography) which is most
commonly used for sex determination. Sex determination is a result of deep rooted
son preference in the society. Preconception and prenatal sex selection leads to
avoid the live of female fetus, resulting into extremely skewed sex ratio favouring
male babies at birth.
Understanding the scope of using technology to satisfy their preference for male
baby, Government of India took several legal initiatives. Misuse of Pre-natal diagnostic
techniques especially amniocentesis was banned in government hospitals and
government laboratories. However, that could not improve the fate of the female
fetus those were aborted before seeing the light of the earth. Health activists and
women’s group relentlessly tried for a more effective legislation and launched a
campaign in 1986 in Maharashtra. The campaign forced the Government of
Maharashtra to formulate an Act at the state level which is known as Maharashtra
Regulation of Pre-natal Diagnostic Techniques Act, 1988. However, campaign did
not stop there. As a result, Parliament enacted the Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques
(Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act on 20th September 1994 which is known
as PNDT Act. Over the time technology has been developed to the extent that sex
could be determined before conception of the child. The need for amendment arises
out of that to introduce the Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques
(PCPNDT) Act in 1996. Certain amendments in the Rules of 1996 are introduced
to ensure effective implementation of the Act. The amended Rules have come into
effect from 14th Feb.2003.

47
Population Studies: Sample Registration System (SRS) of India provides data on sex ratio at birth
An Overview
to monitor the improvement in SRB. SRB in India is plotted separately for rural
and urban. It is observed that there is a steady improvement in SRB over last
six years for both the rural and urban areas, but the improvement is more prominent
in urban areas than it is in rural areas (Fig. 2.5). However, there is no reason to
believe that son preference is higher among urban population than it is among
rural population. The reasons for lower sex ratio at birth in urban areas are two
folds: i) The diagnostic centres are more easily available in urban areas and ii)
urban people can afford the cost of diagnostic test. It is also said that in high
fertility regime, couples automatically give birth to desired number of sons. Thus
they do not try to select the fetus of preferred sex. Thus in rural areas it is a
combination of relatively high fertility than urban areas and lack of facility contributed
in higher SRB than it is in urban areas.
Figure 3.8 Trends in Sex Ratio Birth, India

Source: Based on SRS Statistical Report 2011, 2012 and 2013

The number of missing girls can be computed from the difference between
the actual SRB and the natural SRB. In other words, it is the difference
between the actual number of girls born and the number of girls who
would have been born if the SRB was 948.7 girls per 1000 boys. The
resultant gap represents the estimated number of girls missing due to sex
selection. http://countryoffice.unfpa.org/india/drive/MissingGirls Brochure_
LowResPDF.pdf
Source: Based on SRS Statistical Report 2013 and Census of India 2011

In spite of several attempt by the government of India, and improvement in SRB,

some of the states are terribly poor performing. Considering the generalized ratio
of 105 male per 100 female babies, SRB should be around 950 female per 1000
males. However, the states of Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Delhi,
Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana have recorded alarmingly low SRB. There
are only four major states in India which has sex ratio more than critical mark of
950 female per 1000 male. They are namely, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Karnataka
and Odisha.

48
 Figure 3.9 SRB and CSR in the Major States of India around 2011 Population Structure

3.8.3 Child Sex Ratio

As SRB reveals the status of sex selection prior to conception and birth, CSR reveals
after birth gender based discrimination. Adverse CSR to the female could be a result
of low SRB or could be because of excess female mortality over male in that particular
age group. It was only during 1991 when population at 7+ age group was published
by the Census of India to calculate literacy rate, scholars noticed that CSR has
gone below 950 which was considered as standard sex ratio at birth. It is important
to mention here that since Independence, CSR was showing a continuous decline
which has crossed the critical mark in 1991. Since then it is showing a continuous
decline. Major share of CSR is still very low sex ratio at birth (Figure 3.9).
It has already been noted that overall sex ratio in India has declined from the year
1901. But the decline in CSR during 1961 to 2011 is much faster than over all sex
ratio which has shown some improvements over the decades. An attempt is made
to graphically represent SRB and CSR for the major states of India. Though the

49
Population Studies: result are not strictly comparable as the CSR is from census data and SRB is from
An Overview
Sample Registration System data, it is evident that India has hard task ahead to
reach the target of 950 female per 1000 male baby. It is only in the state of Kerala
and Chhattisgarh which have maintained this sex ratio both at birth and among the
children.

3.8.4 Elderly Sex Ratio

As it has been already mentioned that India is experiencing a faster growth among
the elderly population, it is essential to understand the phenomena from a gender
perspective. This is important with the faster increase in longevity among the women
that it is among the men. Under equal treatment to both the gender, chances of
survival are more for the women than it is among the men. With the consistent
availability of health technology women continue to live longer making elderly sex
ratio inclined towards female.
One may ask that how gender discrimination is diminishing at older ages? Actually
two factors together work for this. Firstly, almost universal motherhood in India
and high maternal death situation put every woman in the risk of maternal death.
Their chances of survival automatically increase once they cross their reproductive
age. Similarly, in Indian society, with age they gain control over the household
resources and decision making. That reduces the discrimination between genders.
However, it goes to prove once again that men die early and women suffer.
Check Your Progress 3
Note : a) Write your answer in about 50 words
b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1) List out age groups of population and defined working and non working
population.
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
2) Define Sex Ratio and describe its importance.
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................

3.9 LET US SUM UP

In this unit, we have discussed about the age and sex composition of the population
structure which is important for all the teaching and research components of the
50 population studies. Age sex pyramid shows the trends and pattern of population
growth along with sex ratio at birth. Dependency ratio is another component of Population Structure
population structure in the country which also indicates the facilities for elderly, children
and working age population for care, education and employment respectively.

3.10 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READINGS

Chandna, RC (2004) Geography of Population, Kalyani Publishers, New Delhi
Das, Dipendra Nath and Murulidhar Vemuri. Gender differences among older persons:
A Study based on the 2001 Population Census of India in Das Bhaswati and Vimal
Khawas (eds). Gender Issues in Development-Concerns for the 21 st Century.
Rawat Publications. 2009.
Derek Llewellyn-Jones (1975) People Populating, Faber and Faber, 3 Queen Square,
London.
James, KS, Kavitha, N., George, A, Kulkarani, PM, Prasad, S., Sathyanarayana,
KM and Kumar S. (YNS), A preliminary assessment of the quality of civil registration
system in Kerala, Odisha and Rajasthan, ISEC, Bengalore, JNU, New Delhi, and
UNFPA, New Delhi.
Mandal, R.B., Uyanga, Joseph and Prasad, Hanuman (2007), Introductory Methods
in Population Analysis, Concept publishing Company, New Delhi.
Premi, M.K. (1991) India’s Population: Heading towards a billion, B.R. Publishing
Corporation.
Premi, M.K. (2001) Population of India: in the new millennium: Census 2001, National
Book Trust, India
Premi, M.K and Dipendra Nath Das (2011). Population of India 2011.R.R Publishing
Corporation
Srinivasan K. (UNPFA, 2011), Training Manual on Demographic Techniques,
Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India, New Delhi (ORGI). Downloaded
from https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/TrainingManualonDemographics
Techniques%28forwebsite%29.pdf on 31 July, 2022
http://www.cehat.org/pndt.html Retrieved on 31 July, 2022
http://rajswasthya.nic.in/PCPNDT%2005.12.08/Hand%20book%20
with%20Act%20&%20Rules %20(5)%20%20(1).pdf June, 30, 2022
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/ 13 September 2022
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-of-working-age-
population?country=~NER 15 September 2022

3.11 CHECK YOUR PROGRESS - POSSIBLE

ANSWERS
Check Your Progress 1
Q. Explain briefly concept of age and sex composition of population
A. age and sex composition is the barrow meter of the demographic data for
any country. Both age and sex compositions are the best determinants of 51
Population Studies: the population growth which is influencing by birth rate, death rate and
An Overview
migration. Age composition is affected by war, famine, pandemic over the
period of time. Sex composition is best indicator of fertility potential of
the country.
Check Your Progress 2
Q. Describe population pyramid and its use in population policy
A. It is graphical presentation of the age and sex structure of the population
of any country. Broad base of pyramid shows higher birth rate and sex
ratio at birth while narrow base is indicating low fertility and proportion of
elderly population in the country. Population pyramid is important to formulate
policy on the basis of age structure and health policy for sex structure.
Check Your Progress 3
Q1. List out age groups of population and defined working and non working
population
A. Basically four age groups have constructed based on the census data in
India. These are 0-6 years, 0-14 years, 15-59 years, 60 years and above.
These are groups called working and non working age population in
the country. Working age population is 15-59 in Indian perspective and
15-64 at international perspective while non working age population is below
15 years and 60+ years population. Non working age population called
dependent population on working age population which can be measure
in the form dependency ratio.
Q2. Define Sex Ratio and describe its importance
A. Sex ratio is defined as number of female per 1000 male population in India
while at global level is number of males per 100 female population. Sex
ratio is the best indicator of fertility and potentiality of population growth.
Sex ratio is used to formulate health policy for reproductive health and family
planning in the country.

52
 Population Structure
UNIT 4 WORLD TREND AND PATTERN OF
POPULATION
Structure
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Components of Population Growth
4.2.1 Data Source
4.3 Growth of Population of the World
4.3.1 Period of Population Growth
4.3.2 How we have become 8 billion?
4.4 Regional Variation in Population Growth
4.4.1 Rich vs. Poor Countries
4.4.2 Distribution of Population by Continents
4.5 Population Density
4.6 Implication of uneven population growth
4.7 Future Population Trends
4.8 Let Us Sum Up
4.9 References and Suggested Readings
4.10 Check Your Progress- Possible Answer

4.1 INTRODUCTION
Since the dawn of civilisation size of the population occupies centre stage of the
discussion on development. The population size is a matter of concern for socio-
economic development and military context. The ancient thinkers talked about a
balanced growth of population so that certain level of quality of life can be maintained.
The two great works of Plato namely The Republic (ca 370-380 BC) and the Laws
(cs 340 BC) has fixed the size of the citizens at 5040 for the city-state while keeping
Athens and Sparta in his mind.This number of citizens is perhaps equivalent to a
total population of 10 to 12 times that number when women, children and slaves
are considered. The ideal number was a concern for Aristotle, another great thinker.
He has opined that neither a small nor a very large number is desirable for a good
state. In a similar manner Chinese philosopher Confucius was indicative towards
optimum population size where he said that very thin population is not desirable
for agricultural growth and at the same time if there is technological stagnation in
agriculture high population growth will lead to reduced revenue collection. Indian
political philosopher Chanakya in his Arthashastra mentioned that ideal size of the
population in a village should be between 100 and 500 agricultural families for every
1-2 square mile area depending upon the agricultural and mining potential of the
region.Thus, the thinkers were extremely concerned about the size of the population
and its growth as it is highly related with security of the nation and good living of
its inhabitants.
Population growth remained a point of interest not only to the academicians, but
also to the policy makers. Every growth of population, both positive and negative 53
Population Studies: is a result of socio-economic processes and at the same time they are often reasons
An Overview
for that. The population growth along with its pace provides idea about the resource
requirement for good living and the pressure on planet earth. At contemporary time
population size and density is a concern for environment and development. An
unprecedented growth of population has created several problems namely, weakening
of resource base, exploiting the vulnerable ecosystem for sustenance, rising inequality.
While talking about distribution and growth of population, mostly overall pattern is
introduced as share of male and female in the population is more or less equal in
the world. The study of population is the study of human society and thus, areal
focus is important. Any study of population begins with its distribution and growth
history. We all have a curiosity to know the world population distribution and how
quickly or in what pace we have been grown in numbers in order to reach in today’s
size. The present distribution, density and growth of the population are extremely
uneven in the world and every geographical area have their own trajectory to reach
in today’s position.
After reading this unit learner will be able to:
(i) Explain patterns of Population Growth
(ii) Discuss Components of Population Growth.
(iii) Describe various trends of Population across the globe.
(iv) Narrate factors of population growth in the different countries.

4.2 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH

Globally, birth and death determine the population growth. Whenever there is decline
in mortality assuming fertility remains constant, the high population growth is inevitable.
Similarly, when fertility is extremely low, then decline in population growth rate is
observed. However, at local or smaller geographical regions, immigration and
emigration also plays important role in determining population size.

4.2.1 Data Source

Even when the scholars were
concerned about the implication of the The Paleolithic period (roughly 2.5 million
size of the population, counting years ago to 10,000 B.C.) is also known as
population was not regular until recently Old stone age. People were hunter-gatherers.
across the globe. However, there are The Neolithic period, or New Stone Age began
several estimates available for the global around 12000 years ago and experienced
population trend before the initiation of several revolutions namely domestication of
census in major part of the globe. plants and animals and change from hunter-
Population census of the countries is gatherer to settlement-based life style.
the major data source in current time The Bronze Age was lasting approximately
to study population trends. However, from 3300 BC to 1200 BC. As the name
United Nation publishes Global suggests that it is characterized by the use
Population Prospects on a regular basis of metal namely bronze, and early features of
to provide current trend and future urban civilization observed in this era.
projection of the population.

54
 World Trend and Pattern
4.3 GROWTH OF POPULATION OF THE WORLD of Population

It is estimated that world has reached to one billion somewhere around 1800. But
it took hundreds and thousands of years for the homo sapience to reach to one
billion. The earth has a million inhabitants in Paleolithic era, reached to 10 million
in Neolithic age and 100 million Bronze age. The earth was extremely sparsely
populated, as the figures suggest. The hunter-gatherer required large amount of forest
to collect food for them. Poor technology kept the earth’s carrying capacity low.
With little improvement in technology as observed from domestication of plants and
animals, the carrying capacity increased so the population size.

4.3.1 Period of Population Growth

Period of population growth can be discussed by dividing into four major stages
as follows:
1. Population prior to 10000 BC
2. Population between 10000 BC and 1650 AD
3. Population between 1650 and 1820
4. Population since 1820
1. Population prior to 10000 BC- Before discussing the modern rise of the
population, let us look at the population growth in the ancient years. The major
determinants of global population growth are birth and death dynamics. World
population prior to 10000 BC experienced both high birth and death rate. This
was the stage when human were hunter and gatherers and used to live in caves,
tree branches and under canopy cover.The first cultural revolution occurred in
this period when they learnt to lit fire. However, technology of food production
and shelter were still not known and as a result of that survival struggle was
extremely high. Estimated life expectancy was not more than 10 years. An
estimated area of only about 20 million of square miles of the earth was used
by the food gatherers and hunters.
The scholars are divided in their opinion on the reason for the rise in population
in eighteenth century. A group of scholars believe that it was improvement in
medical technology and decline in mortality rate whereas there are another set
of scholars who believe that there was little increase in fertility also happened.
2. Population between 10000 BC and
1650 AD:Neolithic period experienced The scholars are divided in their
opinion on the reason for the rise in
next cultural revolution when human learnt
population in eighteenth century. A
to domesticate plants and animals. The group of scholars believe that it was
obvious associated feature with improvement in medical technology
domestication of plant less movement for and decline in mortality rate whereas
food, leaning the technique of making there are another set of scholars who
shelters and thus developed the less believe that there was little increase
mobile living arrangements. That was the in fertility also happened.
initiation of village life. Domestication of
plants and animals has helped to improve food diversity and food security. Better
shelters protected humans from the vagaries of nature and thus longevity improved.
55
Population Studies: 3. Population between 1650 and 1820- This is a period of continuous improvement
An Overview
mostly in agriculture and animal husbandry. Mechanisation significantly affected
agriculture, trade and economy. Food diversity increased substantially through
local production and trade. Food security improved further and as a result mortality
declined further and life expectancy increased. Moreover during 18th Century
there was massive expansion of health infrastructure namely, hospitals and
dispensaries, changes in medical education, improvement in anatomy and surgery,
and introduction of inoculation against small pox. England took a lead role in
spreading medical education across its own countries and its colonies.
Homeopathy, another branch of medical treatment was also introduced during
this time. Despite several achievements population growth rate was around 0.3
percent per annum as there were several mortality peaks due to epidemic, famine
and wars. Though, there were definite sign of positive growth, it was yet
significantly low.
4. Population since 1820
This is assumed to be the last cultural revolution when industrial revolution took
place. Initiation of industrial revolution is traced back in the improvement of
agricultural technology. Food production and preservation technology improved
substantially. Along with that invention of steam engine, introduction of railway,
improvement of road transport and infrastructure has made food transport much
easier and thus food basket added more variety of food. Further, spread of
industries lead to massive rural to urban migration and lead to increased level
of congestion and lack of health and hygiene. Between 1900-1921 was the
era when few eruptions of fatal episodes of influenza and plague took heavy
toll. The year 1921 is termed as a year of great demographic divide in India
when the country experienced a great loss of population and negative growth
rate.
Picture 4.1: Depiction of high fatality from Cholera in Nineteenth century

https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo/cholera-disease.htm
56
However, the rich countries experienced a steady increase and higher growth rate World Trend and Pattern
of Population
in population during this period due to additional measures related to health and
hygiene were taken to contain the spread of contagious disease. However, the long-
lasting threat from smallpox, typhoid, yellow fever and scarlet fever quite dominantly
continued even in this century. Moreover, cholera emerged as an epidemic threat and
spread worldwide resulting in six pandemics in the nineteenth century (Picture 1).
Several innovations related to live saving treatment and medicine changed the course
of life. Development of microbiology and immunology has deep impact in public
health. The second stage of demographic transition was initiated though at a slower
pace in several European countries. But several developing countries were devoid
of any massive development and spread of medical technology. But they were
experiencing unprecedented international movements through the spread of
international trade by their colonial masters. This mobility helped spreading the
contagious diseases across globe. The highly fatal flu of 1918 engulfed several
countries. The picture 1 depicts how quarantine was practiced to contain the
contagious disease and how telephone use was encouraged to remain connected
(Picture 2).
Picture 4.2: An advertisement for using telephone while in quarantine in 1918

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine#/media/File:Bell_System_Flu_Quarantine.png
57
Population Studies: Between 1921 and 1950 was also eventful in the growth history of global
An Overview
population. During this tenure world experienced Second World War following
which several countries attained independence from the colonial power.
Meanwhile, the world experienced economic downturn between 1929 and 1939
which is historically been known as the Great Depression of 30s. So far that
was the longest economic depression which was marked with uncertainties. Several
young couples postponed their marriage and child birth during this uncertain
times. Followed by the Great Depression, there was baby boom and as the
name suggests there was a large supply of babies when people massively took
part in family building when economy revived. This was essentially a phenomenon
experienced by the western world.

Similarly, in late 40s India got Independence after a prolonged blood-shedding

independence war against the Britishers.There was largest number of forced political
migrants in human history happened due to partition of India. The uncertainties
that were looming over was over following that. The sovereignty was acquired by
a major part of the poor Asian, African and Latin American countries. The developing
countries started getting the benefit of life saving drugs and medical technology and
mortality declined. The developed countries took much longer time to control over
mortality but for developing countries it happened over much shorter duration of
time due to supply of life saving drugs and technology from the developed countries.
Thus, they experienced higher birth rate, declining mortality rate and high population
growth rate.

4.3.2 How We Have Become 8 Billion?

The growth, as it appears from the above was not even and smooth for the globe.
The estimated population of 1750 was only 750 million when the modern rise of
population started and only in 1830 global population reached to 1 billion mark.
Once the European countries started observing high population growth awareness
on large number of infant deaths drawn the attention of the scientists and policy
makers. Industrial revolution was marked by poor health condition of the labours
in the urban areas of England. As a result, several industrial towns initially observed
increased mortality which raised enormous health concerns, A large number of
hospitals were built in private initiative and public health initiatives were taken.
Health and hygiene in prison and mental asylums drawn special attention. Public
health and hygiene initiative resulted into decline in mortality with continued high
fertility. The population has grown in an unprecedented faster rate and reached
to 2 billion in 1930, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1975, 5 billion in 1987, 6 billion
in 1999, 7 billion in 2010, 8 billion in 2022. The globe is expected to growfurther
and population projection suggests that it may show a sign of decline after it reaches
10.4 million (Figure 1). Even after decline in fertility rate population continues to
grow because of its youthful age structure. The growth momentum is embedded
in the youthful age structure which is a result of past high fertility. Growth shows
a decline only when this young cohort passes their reproductive span. This is also
termed as population momentum.

58
 Figure 1. Modern rise of world population World Trend and Pattern
of Population

Source: Prepared by the author

As it is seen that it took several thousand years by the world population to reach
one (1) billion mark but after that the growth was quite fast. It took only 80 years
to add one more million, 100 years to one more million so on and so forth. The
time of doubling was shortening as to reach from 1 to 2 billion the world took 100
years and, to reach 4 billion mark it took only 45 years. However, doubling time
has shown a sign of increase as it took 47 years to reach 8 billion mark with a
slower pace of population growth (Table 4.1).
Table 4.1. Time taken to add each million

Year Population in Years taken to add

million a billion

1750 750

1830 1000 80

1930 2000 100

1960 3000 30

1975 4000 15

1987 5000 12

1999 6000 12

2010 7000 11

2022 8000 12

2037 9000 15

2058 10000 21

Source : i) McKeown Thomas. The Modern Rise of Population

ii) https://ourworldindata.org/
59
Population Studies:
An Overview 4.4 REGIONAL VARIATION IN POPULATION
GROWTH
There is wide range of variation in population growth and when seen historically, it
brings out some amazing facts to us. The following section deals with regional variation
in population distribution and growth.

4.4.1 Rich vs. Poor Countries

Bavel in his article has captured the extreme regional variation in population growth.
He has observed that in the year 1900, Belgium and the Philippines both had around
7 million people. But by the year 2000, the population of Belgium had become 10
million as against 76 million people for Philippines. The unequal pattern of growth
had remained a concern and a strong voice against the poor countries was echoed
from the rich countries. The pattern as depicted in the Table 4.2, shows how the
share of global population has shifted towards the poor countries.

Table 4.2. World population in rich and poor countries (1900-2010)

Population (million) Annual Growth Rate (%) % of Share

Year Rich Poor World Rich Poor World Rich Poor World

1900 563 1071 1634 34.5 65.5 100

1920 654 1203 1857 0.75 0.58 0.64 35.2 64.8 100

1930 727 1309 2036 1.06 0.84 0.92 35.7 64.3 100

1940 794 1473 2267 0.88 1.18 1.07 35.0 65 100

1950 811 1721 2532 0.21 1.56 1.11 32.0 68 100

1960 913 2125 3038 1.12 2.11 1.82 30.1 69.9 100

1970 1006 2690 3696 0.97 2.36 1.96 27.2 72.8 100

1980 1081 3372 4453 0.77 2.26 1.86 24.3 75.7 100

1990 1144 4162 5306 0.52 2.10 1.75 21.6 78.4 100

2000 1189 4934 6123 0.39 1.70 1.43 19.4 80.6 100

2010 1236 5660 6896 0.04 1.37 1.19 17.9 82.1 100

Source: Livi-Bacci, Massimo. A Concise History of World Population

Once, it is put in the graph the visual shows (Figure 4.2) the reversal of trend is
revealed more clearly. Currently 82 percent of the global population is from the
poor countries as against 18 percent from the rich. Over several decades the
population growth rate of the rich countries remained less than one percent. But
the growth rate of the poor countries still remained well above one percent which
indicates further future growth potential.

60
 Figure 4.2 Share in total global population by rich and poor group of countries World Trend and Pattern
of Population

Prepared by the author

Check your progress 1

Note : (a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
(b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1. Why population growth was faster after the industrial revolution?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
2. Why poor countries are growing faster than the rich countries?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................

4.4.2 Distribution of Population by Continents

There are seven continents (Figure 4.3) in the world and population distribution in
them is essential to know as they are extremely unequal in population size.
Figure 4.3. The continents

61
Population Studies: Almost 60 percent of the global population reside in Asia (4.6 billion in 2020). It
An Overview
is the largest continent in the earth. Two mostly populated countries namely, China
and India are part of this continent. Out of 4.6 billion, 2.8 billion i.e. around 61
percent of the Asian population and about 36 percent of global population is belonging
to these two countries. Only four countries namely, China, India, Pakistan and
Bangladeshcontain 45 percent of the global population. In 2020 Asia’s growth rate
was 0.83 percent per annum. Western Asia is the fastest growing area whereas
the Eastern Asia has lowest growth rate. Eastern most country Japan is experiencing
negative growth rate in recent times and this sub-region is projected to have negative
growth rate until the year 2050. The population growth rate 2.53 percent was the
peak in the continent reached in 1968. The major reason for current population
growth is declining fertility, low mortality with increasing longevity and emigration
from the major part of the continent.
Africa is the second largest continent in the earth. The continent of Africa has 58
recognized sovereign states and countries and territories. The estimated population
of Africa was 1.2 billion in 2016 and grown to 1.3 billion in 2020. The continent
contributes 17 percent of the global population. The population growth of the continent
is well above 2 percent per annum, though the growth rate has observed some
decline. However, the continental growth masks regional variation in the population
growth. According to UN, half of global population growth between 2022 till 2050
will be contributed by four African countries namely, Nigeria, Congo, Ethiopia and
Tanzania. Africa as a continent still has high fertility, declining mortality and emigration
those are shaping the population growth.
Figure 4.4. World Population Share, 2020

Prepared by the author

Third largest continent in terms of population size is Europe and it contributes around
10 percent of the global population. The available information on population counting
majorly captured the growth history of Europe only. Mid-fifties onwards Europe
has registered less than 1 percent growth rate. Alarmingly, in the year 2000 continent
as a whole experienced negative growth rate which it has revived further but still
considered to be very low. The continent also shows variation in their growth pattern
62 where southern and eastern European countries have shown negative population
growth during past several years. Europe is experiencing very low fertility and World Trend and Pattern
of Population
mortality rate and thus, longevity is high. The continent also receives immigrants.
Fourth in the row is North America that accounts for around 7.6 percent of the
global population. The continent has 41 countries and territories. Among them major
countries are USA, Mexico and Canada. However, USA and Mexico alone contain
more than 77 percent of the total population of the continent. Since the late 50s till
date the growth rate hovers around 1.5 to 0.5 percent per annum.The population
growth pattern of USA historically has spikes and dips as a major part of the trend
is contributed by immigration. Thus, recently released census data of 2022 observed
near zero growth followed by COVID19 pandemic when deaths were high
immigration was low. Moreover, economic depression followed by Ukarine-Russia
war has put a block for immigration.
Fifth and last major continent is South America that contributes 5.5 percent of global
population. This is a small continent with 14 countries only. Majority of the countries
are small in population size.In this little less than 50 percent of the population live in
Brazil. Entire 60s and 70s have observed much higher than 2 percent growth rate
per annum for the continent. However, there was a steady decline in growth rate during
80s and 90s and current growth rate is lower than 1 percent per annum. Major part
of the continent is tropical and western part is dominated by Andes mountain range,
eastern part has ridge which made the continent geographically less compatible.
The last in the series is Oceania as Antarctica has zero population living there. Oceania
has 23 countries but majority has very less population. Australia alone accounts
for 59 percent of the population of this continent whereas 91 percent of the population
is contributed by three countries namely, Australia, Papua New Guinea and New
Zealand. Australia is majorly experiencing low growth rate due to low birth and
death rate. The country encourages immigration as it is very low-density country.

4.5 POPULATION DENSITY

The population distribution is not only measured through the size indicator, but also
by using density indicator. Population density is measured as persons per unit of area.
The pattern of distribution is less known until and unless population density is considered
for discussion. The density map reveals somewhat different picture where other than
Asian countries, Europe appeared to be highly densely populated. Though China and
India occupy the first and second position in terms of total population size, population
density of these two countries is not the highest in the world. Among the most densely
populated area appears some of the small territories. Macao, Monaco, Singapore,
Hong Kong, and Gibraltar are the five most densely populated areas of the world.
Among the major countries Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the
world with a density of 1328 persons per square kilometre in 2022, though it ranks
eighth in terms of population size. This density is nearly three times higher than the
neighbouring country India. Interestingly, fifth densely populated country is Netherlands
(523 persons per km) that lies in Europe that is grappling with very low population
growth. The lowest density country is Greenland which has less than one person per
square kilometre. A major part of Africa, barring sub-Saharan part is highly dense.
Among the continents Oceania is least densely populated. Mongolia, Namibia, Australia,
and Iceland are among the lowest density countries which has less than 10 persons
per square kilometre in 2022 (Figure 5). 63
Population Studies: Figure 5. Global population density, 2015
An Overview

Source: https://www.fao.org

4.6 IMPLICATION OF UNEVEN POPULATION

GROWTH
Differential population growth has differential implication for the countries and the
continents. Natural growth of population which is the result of differences in birth and
death also modifies the age structure of the population. Some scholars argue that the
age structure is more important consideration for any country than its size of the
population. It shows that high birth rate implies for young age structure, thereby having
more young people than the older. Similarly, low death rate and higher longevity leads
to accumulation of older population than that of younger population. Median age is
an indicator of age structure of the population. Median value divides the entire distribution
into two equal parts, half above that value and half below that. Higher median value
indicates older age structure and lower median value indicates younger age structure.
Figure 6. Median age of the continents, 2022

64 Prepared by the author

Thus, major populated continents are majorly characterised as follows: World Trend and Pattern
of Population
 Young Asia and South America
 Younger Africa
 Older Europe and America
As the figure 6 shows Africa is much younger than rest of the world whereas Asia,
Oceania and South America are in relatively similar age distribution. The median
age is an effective indicator of understanding the process of ageing and balancing
working age population. The five most aged countries measured in terms of median
age are Japan (48.6 years), Germany (47.8 years), Italy (46.5 years), Greece (45.3
years), Slovenia (44.9 years). Referring to our section on components of population
growth it is worth mentioning here that the countries facing ageing problem often
lack sufficient labour force to run a competitive economy and thus opt for a lenient
immigration policy. On the other hand,the young countries have plenty of supply of
man power. They are the emigrating countries. Increased international movement
is taking care of natural growth imbalance between the countries.

4.7 FUTURE POPULATION TRENDS

The United Nations regularly
India’s population may have already overtaken
undertake the task of projecting China’s, estimates show
population. All the projections are
World News
based on certain assumptions and
thus may actually vary in reality. Updated on Jan 18, 2023 08:51 AM IST
However, they do provide some India Population: Although India’s population
insight about future action to be growth has slowed, World Population Review
taken. According to the recent most said that it expected the number to continue to
projections by the United Nations rise until at least 2050.
suggest that population will reach to Hindustan Times
8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in
2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.
An expected decline is estimated in the global population size only after that.
In 2019 the life expectancy was 72.8 years which is projected to reach at 77.2
years in 2050. This increasing longevity is the direct result of improvement in mortality.
Since the fertility in some regions of the globe is still remain high, the decline in
mortality results in population growth. Moreover, growth momentum plays important
role in global population growth in recent times. The projection of the UN observed
that two-thirds of the projected increase in global population till 2050 will be
contributed by population momentum. The projection further suggests that till 2050
half of the population increase of the globe will be contributed by eight countries
namely, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria,
Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. The World Population
Prospects referred that India will surpass China and will be the most populous country
of the world which probably has become true.
It is expected that countries of Sub-Saharan Africa will continue growing through
2100. But population of Europe, North America, Latin America, Caribbean and
major part of Asia will observe decline in population size much before 2100. The 65
Population Studies: populations of Australia and New Zealand, Northern Africa and Western Asia, and
An Overview
Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) are expected to experience slower,
but still positive, growth through the end of the century. Australia and New Zealand
is expected to have negative growth of population.
This extreme regional variation will result into increased international migration specially
among the young population. Associated to this will be increase in aged population
and increase in associated demand for care and security. Thus, global population
challenge surely going to shift.

4.8 LET US SUM UP

The population growth in the world and in the continents are extremely fascinating
and several simultaneous socio-economic developments are reflected in this population
growth history. The world took very long years to reach 1 billion mark. However,
after that the population growth is much faster and population will continue to grow
till 2100. The growth history was not same for all the continents neither for the
countries of that continents. Historically share of the rich countries in the global
population was higher, but over the years it is the poor countries that overtook the
growth and their share in growth increased substantially. The growth is the lowest
in Europe and highest in Africa.
The density of population, however, reveals different picture where Bangladesh is
the most densely populated country in the world. Though growth rate is low, yet
Europe is quite dense continent.
Currently, Africa is the youngest and Europe is the oldest whereas rest are in between.
Old age structure often is deficit in young labour force and thus encourages
immigration to fulfil the gap. The immigrants are supplied by the high population
growth countries. Africa as a continent is very young whereas, Europe is the oldest.
Thus, Africa has population growth potential.
The future projection shows Africa will continue to grow till 2100 whereas Asia,
Latin America has contained the growth rate. However, population will continue to
grow for sometimes even when low growth rate is achieved due to population
momentum.
Check your progress 2
Note : (a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
(b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1. Which one among total population and density of population, is a better indicator
for development?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
2. What are the implication for current population trend in the world?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
66
 World Trend and Pattern
4.9 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READINGS of Population

Jowett, Plato B. “Plato on Population and the State.” Population and Development
Review 12, no. 4 (1986): 781–98. https://doi.org/10.2307/1973435.
Livi-Bacci, Massimo. A Concise History of World Population. 2012. Wiley-Blackwell
Majumder, P.K. Fundamentals of Demography.2010. Rawat Publication.
McKeown Thomas. The Modern Rise of Population. 1979. Edward Arnold
(Publishers) Ltd. London.
Van Bavel J. The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and -projections
for the future. Facts Views Vis Obgyn. 2013;5(4):281-91. PMID: 24753956;
PMCID: PMC3987379.
World Population Prospects: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/
www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2022_wpp_key-messages.pdf
Retrieved on 21-11-2022
https://worldpopulationreview.com/continents/africa-populationRetrieved on 21-11-
2022
https://ourworldindata.org/Retrieved on 21-11-2022

4.10 CHECK YOUR PROGRESS - POSSIBLE

ANSWER
Check your progress 1
Q1. Why population growth was faster after the industrial revolution?
After industrial revolution, there was sudden increase in urban congestion and
poor health and hygiene condition. That has given rise to awareness on
improvement of health and hygiene. Health innovations and knowledge improved
enormously that helped declining mortality when fertility decline did not
commensurate with the same. Thus, it recorded high population growth.
Q2. Why poor countries are growing faster than the rich countries?
The mortality rate in poor countries improved at much faster rate than the rich
countries because of imported medical technology from the rich countries.
However, they did not get sufficient time to curb their fertility rate. So they
are currently growing at a faster rate than the rich countries.
Check your progress 2
Q1. Which one among total population and density of population, is a better indicator
for development?
For the large countries size of the population is also important. But population
density is a better indicator as it shows the population pressure on per unit
of geographical area. Bangladesh ranks eighth in population size but ranks
1 in terms of population density. However, for India and China, even the
size matters.
67
Population Studies: Q2. What are the implication for current population trend in the world?
An Overview
At present natural growth rate of Europe is the lowest and it has highest
proportion of elderly population. On the other hand Asia is growing fast and
its age structure is young. Africa is growing even faster rate. The requirement
of labour in low growth rate countries are met through immigration. Migration
has become important in this context.

68
 World Trend and Pattern
UNIT 5 POPULATION TREND AND PATTERN of Population

OF INDIA
Structure
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Population Trends
5.2.1 Data Sources
5.3 Growth of Population of India
5.4 Demographic Transition in India
5.5 Regional Variation in Population Growth
5.6 Regional Variation in Population Distribution
5.6.1 Population Size of the states and UTs
5.6.2 Population Age Structure
5.6.3 Population Density of the states and UTs
5.7 The National Population Policy (NPP) of 2000
5.8 Political Implications of Population Size
5.9 Let Us Sum Up
5.10 References and Suggested Readings
5.11 Check Your Progress- Possible Answers

5.1 INTRODUCTION
According to 2011 census, total population of India is around 1.21 billion, it comprises
17.64 percent of the world’s population. The population projection made by ORGI
observes that in 2021 India’s estimated population would be 1.36 billion. India
occupies only 2.4 percent of global land. India is the largest populated country in
the world followed by China. However, World Population Prospects 2022 suggests
that India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.
India was always a populous country and historically a substantial proportion of
global population live in India. Historical demographer Tim Dyson estimates that
the population of the Indus Valley Civilization was around four to six million people
and that was far greater than the populations of Mesopotamia, Egypt, and China
at that time. Discovery of Indus valley civilisation throws light on well-developed
urban system in the West and north western part of this land. Though evidences of
size of the population, life and livelihoods are available from the ancient text like
Ramayana, Mahabharata, Arthashastra by Kautilya, India lacked systematic data
collection until the introduction of modern census in 1872. The scholars relied upon
indirect evidences and estimations to find out the size of the population of the sub-
continent in the absence of a population count.
After reading to this unit, learners will be able to -
1. Describe Population distribution,
2. Explain Growth pattern of population
69
Population Studies: 3. Dictate the Regional variation therein
An Overview
4. Narrate the Political implications of population size

5.2 POPULATION TRENDS

Many population scholars have explained population trends as per their experience
and study outputs. Tim Dyson noted demographer, in his monumental task on history
of population in India, estimates that Indian population was four to six million about
4000 years ago, growing to 35 million, 187 million, and 389 million at the beginning
of the Christian era, 1800, and 1941 respectively. Table 5.1 and figure 5.1 depicts
the proportion of India’s population over global population. It shows that prior to
1800, the share of India’s population to the global population was fluctuating. The
global population started growing at a faster rate after 1800 and the proportion of
India’s population has shown a steady decline till 1930. India’s population growth
was quite faster since it has got Independence. Thus, 1950 onwards again the share
of India’s population started increasing and since 2000, it has been steadily sharing
little more than 17 percent of the global population.
Table 5.1. Trends in India and World population

Year World Population India’s India’s

(in million) Population proportion to
(in million) world population

0 200 100 50
1300 AD 400 50 12.5
1650 500 100 20
1750 700 190 27.1
1800 900 200 22.2
1820 1000 210 21
1850 1200 230 19.2
1900 1600 240 15
1930 2000 280 14
1950 2540 360 14.2
1960 3060 440 14.4
1970 3720 550 14.8
1980 4480 690 15.4
1990 5300 840 15.8
2000* 6143 1059 17.2
2010* 6956 1240 17.2
2020* 7794 1396 17.2
Source: Majumdar, P.K (2013). India’s demography: Changing demographic scenario in India,
World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revisionhttps://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/
70 india/population
 Figure 5.1. Share of India’s population to global population Population Trend and
Pattern of India

5.2.1 Data Sources

Major data source for understanding population growth and distribution pattern
in India is the population census. Population census was first conducted in 1872
when different parts of the country took part in population counting at different
point of time. This census is termed as non-synchronised census. However, since
1891 population census in India was a decennial activity till 2011. This provided
a rich and consistent data source about the population of India. Prior to 1872
population census, there was not much systematic efforts in data collection is
observed. Depending upon the requirement of the kingdom, some have estimated
the population, agricultural land etc essentially for revenue generation purpose.
However, the population census is interrupted in 2021 because of COVID 19
pandemic. COVID 19 is a highly infectious and fatal disease which has engulfed
almost all the countries in the world. Considering its fatality, 2021 population census
was put on hold. However, Office of the Registrar General of India (ORGI) who
is otherwise responsible for conducting population census has provided projected
population figure for the states and UTs of India which has been incorporated in
this study.

5.3 GROWTH OF POPULATION OF INDIA

According to Kingslay Davis, “India’s population remained almost stationary since
1800 at around 125 million for about 50 years. The period between 1871 and
1901 is stable population period when size of the population did not increase much.
The birth rate was almost same as death rate and both were high. This decade
had several famines. A little respite from famines was there in the next decade. Between
1901 and 1911, population increased by about 158 lakh. Dyson observes that there
were relatively little variation in the average level of fertility from decade to decade.
Women had slightly less than six live births each. The main reason of the addition
of 158 lakh during this decade is attributed to increase in population was due to
less number of large scale famines resulting into considerably lower death rate.
However, there were few local famines. The worst was the decade 1911-1921. In
the period of 1911-1921, due to occurrence of Plague in Bengal and Bombay 71
Population Studies: presidencies, Plague and Malaria in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab population again reduced
An Overview
by about 7 lakh. Influenza epidemic alone in 1918 caused 140 lakh deaths in the
country. Apart from that the small outbreaks of epidemics like cholera, malaria,
plague, and small-pox were also prevalent in the absence of medical and sanitation
facilities. Moreover, thousands of soldiers lost their lives during the First World War
(1914-1918) and shortage of food caused by severe droughts in the years of
1911,1913,1915,1918 and 1920. The year 1921 is known as the year of “Great
Divide” because it distinguishes the previous era of chequered population growth
to moderately increasing population growth.

The history of population growth in India since 1891 divides the country into three
natural parts, the point of division being 1921, 1951 and 1981 respectively (Premi
et. al 1983). During the period 1921-1931 population increased by about 276
lakh. The census of 1931 and 1941 recorded an increase of about 28 and 40
per million respectively. In 1951, total population was recorded to the extent of
361 million i.e. 42 million increase over 1941 year. During the thirty years between
1921 and 1951, the increase amounted to
109 million or an average 3.63 million a
Malthus was of opinion that population
year. The period between 1921 and 1951 growth excess to the means of
is known for fast growth of population. The sustenance only lead to vice and misery.
rate of population growth fluctuated The followers of Malthusian doctrine of
modern day are called neo-Malthusian.
between 1.0 and 1.35 per cent per annum.
Between 1901 and 1951, the population Neo Malthusians fear that a large
population growth could lead to a
increased by 12.3 crore, and between humanitarian and ecological crisis.
1951 and 2001, the population increased This increases misery. The belief has
by more than 5 times, or 66.6 crore. The often resulted in support for coercive
period between 1951 and 1981 is policies.
considered as the period of fastest growth
of population and each decade recorded higher growth rate than its previous decade.
Population increase was much faster than estimated as there were relatively better
food availability than the previous decades. There was also little disease outbreaks
and attention was paid for improved health care. There was no major uncertainties
and war, except some border issues with Pakistan and China. 1951 was the first
census after India achieved Independence. An enthusiast attention was paid to
nation building by introducing Five Year Plan outline for development. Increased
attention was paid towards economic development and wellbeing. However, it
was realised that the pace of development is not at par with the increase of
population. There was tremendous international pressure on India to contain its
population growth. During this period, in fact, the global south started observing
a high population growth rate. India being one of the largest in terms of population
size was influencing the global population trend. Thus, family planning programme,
which was adopted by the Government of India in 1950, tried different approaches
to reach to larger population at shortest period. The Neo-Malthusian doctrine
took a centre stage in population discourse. The then Congress government imposed
Internal Emergency on the ground of internal disturbances. Coercive sterilisation
was introduced as a technocratic solution to curb the population growth which
was thought to be pre-requisite for eradication of poverty. Million were forcibly
sterilised during June 1975 to March 1977. Following the Emergency, in 1977
72
there was Lok Sabha General Election where ruling Congress Government lost Population Trend and
Pattern of India
their majority. The newly elected government, to remove the fear of coercive
sterilisation from the mind of the people, put all the excess of family planning
programme implementation on hold. The growth momentum continued for some
more time before showing definite sign of decline in it. Till now the growth rate
is constantly declining. Due to COVID 19 pandemic the population census of
2021 was postponed. However, the Report of the technical group on population
projections provides the estimated projected population of India as 1.36 billion
as on 1st March 2021 (Table 5.2).
Table 5.2: Population Growth of India, 1901-2021

Year Population Absolute Percentage Decadal

change change growth rate

1901 $ 238396327 - - -

1911 252093390 13697063 5.75 0.56

1921 251321213 -772177 -0.31 -0.03

1931 $ 278977238 27656025 11 1.04

1941 $ 318660580 39683342 14.22 1.33

1951 @ 361088090 42420485 13.31 1.25

1961 @ 439234771 77682873 21.51 1.96

1971 548159652 108924881 24.8 2.2

1981 # 683329097 135169445 24.66 2.22

1991 + 846421039 163091942 23.87 2.11

2001 1028737436 182316397 21.54 1.95

2011 1210854977 182117541 17.7 1.63

2021 * 1361351000 150496023 12.43 1.36

Source: i) General Population Tables, Census of India, 2011.

*Population projections for India and states 2011 – 2036 (as on 1 March 2021)

$ The distribution of population of Puducherry by sex for 1901 (246,354), 1931 (258,628) and
1941 (285,011) is not available. The figures of India for these years are, therefore, exclusive
of these population figures so far as distribution by sex is concerned.

@ In working out ‘decadal variation’ and ‘percentage decadal variation’ for 1941-1951 & 1951-
1961 of Nagaland state, the population of Tuensang district for 1951 (7,025) and the population
of Tuensang (83,501) and Mon (50,774) districts for 1961 Census have not been taken into
account as the area was censused for the first time in 1951 and the same are not comparable.

# The 1981 Census could not be held owing to disturbed conditions prevailing in Assam.
Hence the population figures for 1981 of Assam have been worked out by ‘Interpolation’.

+ The 1991Census was not held in Jammu & Kashmir. Hence the population figures for 1991
of Jammu & Kashmir have been worked out by ‘Interpolation’.
73
Population Studies:
An Overview

Since 1901 population of India continuously increased except between 1911 and
1921. The year 1921 is known as the year of “Great Divide” because it shows
negative growth rate. There were various local famines occurred during 1901 to
1911 such as Plague in Bengal and Bombay presidencies, Plague and Malaria in
Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. It is already mentioned earlier that the decline in population
size during 1911 to 1921 happened because of influenza epidemic and death of
seven per cent of the total population of India. The year 1951 recorded high growth
rate than it was in previous three decades. Death rate has shown substantial decline
owing to improvement in health facility. This has resulted into high growth rate leading
to doubling of population by 1981. It is only 1981 onwards India’s growth rate
started declining steadily. Even when there is a steady decline in growth rate, the
population continues to grow for certain period which typically is a phenomenon
of population momentum.

5.4 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN INDIA

On the basis of the trend discussed above the phases of demographic transition
may be identified as follows:
Figure 5.3. Stages of Demographic Transition in India

74 Source : Hussain, 2020

 Phase I: Period of stagnant population (1901-1921) Population Trend and
Pattern of India
It has already been observed that this period was experiencing low or negative growth
due to poor health condition, First World War and famines. The importance of
development of public health was realised as British emperor was facing threat from
the European communities to control infectious diseases in their colonies.
 Phase II: Period of steady growth (1921-1951)
The result of the development of public health system, steady agricultural growth
and government intervention in improving the life of the people immediately produced
fruit for development. The subcontinent started observing slow but steady growth
of population. Even though the phase experienced Second World War, India’s war
for Independence and partition of the sub-continent, the growth rate never reached
negative after 1921.
 Phase III: Period of rapid population growth (1951-1981)
India started to take control over the development process with new zeal, after
getting independence. It was a period free from epidemic, famines and wars. The
peace was reflected in the decline in mortality at a much faster rate than fertility.
Moreover, this is the time when population issues have become decisive political
factor.
 Phase IV: Period of high population growth rate with a definite sign of slowing
down (1981-2011)
During this time period first time since independence, the growth rate started declining
and reached well below 2 percent per annum. The decline in growth rate was
uninterrupted till date.
Though the population growth pattern, to some extent, fits with the stages identified
in demographic transition model, the stages of development hardly coincides with
birth and death transition in India. The control over high mortality was achieved by
importing life saving medical technology. Even fertility control was also achieved
through different family planning initiatives. Thus, demographic transition was not
organically synchronised with the stages of development in India as it is seen for
the western European countries where the theory was tested.

5.5 REGIONAL VARIATION IN POPULATION

GROWTH
Though the country’s population growth can be divided into four phases, the growth
pattern and changes therein are never uniform across the states of India. Since
Independence, North Indian states have shown continuously higher growth rate
whereas growth rate was higher for the southern state during pre-independence
period. Kerala, for instance, experienced the highest growth rate among the southern
states both during 1951-61 and during 1961-71. However, since then Kerala’s
decadal growth rate has come down from 26.29 percent to 9.42 percent in 1991-
2001. Decadal growth rate for Tamil Nadu was as high as 22.30 percent during
1961-71 and the state took nearly forty years to bring down its decadal growth
rate to 11.19 percent in 1991-2001. There several states and UTs in India which
has shown lower population growth rate than the country’s average. Among the 75
Population Studies: states, Kerala and Goa has alarmingly low population growth rate in the latest census
An Overview
decade of 2001-2011. Among the major states Bihar, Chattisgarh, NCT of Delhi,
Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and Rajasthan still have more than 20 percent decadal
growth rate of population. The states namely, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Goa, Himachal
Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal has recorded
much lower than 20 percent decadal growth even during 1991-2001. Only
Chhattisgarh is an interesting case where decadal growth rate was less than 20 percent
during 1991-2001 but increased to more than 20 percent during 2001-2011.
A large number of states have shown more than 5 points decline in their decadal
growth rate between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011. Most prominent among them
are NCT of Delhi, Chandigarh, Goa, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan
(Table 5.3).

Table5.3: Percent of increment of population in different states of India. 1951-2011

Sates and UTs of India 1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011

Andaman and Nicobar 105.19 81.17 63.93 48.70 26.90 6.86

Islands

Andhra Pradesh 15.65 20.90 23.10 24.20 14.59 10.98

Arunachal Pradesh - 38.91 35.15 36.83 27.00 26.03

Assam 34.98 34.95 23.36 24.24 18.92 17.07

Bihar 19.79 20.91 24.16 23.38 28.62 25.40

Chandigarh 394.13 114.59 75.55 42.16 40.28 17.09

Chhattisgarh 22.77 27.12 20.39 25.73 18.27 22.61

Dadra and Nagar Haveli 39.56 27.96 39.78 33.57 59.22 55.88

Daman and Diu -24.56 70.85 26.07 28.62 55.73 53.76

NCT of Delhi 52.44 52.93 53.00 51.45 47.02 21.21

Goa 7.77 34.77 26.74 16.08 15.21 8.23

Gujarat 26.88 29.39 27.67 21.19 22.66 19.28

Haryana 33.79 32.22 28.75 27.41 28.43 19.90

Himachal Pradesh 17.87 23.04 23.71 20.79 17.54 12.94

Jammu and Kashmir 9.44 29.65 29.69 30.89 29.43 23.64

Jharkhand 19.69 22.58 23.79 24.03 23.36 22.42

Karnataka 21.57 24.22 26.75 21.12 17.51 15.60

Kerala 24.76 26.29 19.24 14.32 9.43 4.91

Lakshadweep 14.61 31.95 26.53 28.47 17.30 6.30

Madhya Pradesh 24.73 29.28 27.16 27.24 24.26 20.35

Maharashtra 23.60 27.45 24.54 25.73 22.73 15.99

76
 Population Trend and
Manipur 35.04 37.53 32.46 29.29 24.86 24.50 Pattern of India

Meghalaya 27.03 31.50 32.04 32.86 30.65 29.95

Mizoram 35.61 24.93 48.55 39.70 28.82 23.48

Nagaland 73.20 39.88 50.05 56.08 64.53 -0.58

Odisha 19.82 25.05 20.17 20.06 16.25 14.05

Puducherry 16.34 27.81 28.15 33.64 20.62 28.08

Punjab 21.56 21.70 23.89 20.81 20.10 13.89

Rajasthan 26.20 27.83 32.97 28.44 28.41 21.31

Sikkim 17.76 29.38 50.77 28.47 33.06 12.89

Tamil Nadu 11.85 22.30 17.50 15.39 11.72 15.61

Tripura 78.71 36.28 31.92 34.30 16.03 14.84

Uttar Pradesh 16.38 19.54 25.39 25.61 25.85 20.23

Uttarakhand 22.57 24.42 27.45 23.13 20.41 18.81

West Bengal 32.80 26.87 23.17 24.73 17.77 13.84

ALL INDIA 21.51 24.80 24.66 23.87 21.54 17.70

Source: Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs,
Government of India.
Check your progress 1
Note : (a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
(b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1. Why 1921 is called a ‘great divide’ in terms of India’s population growth?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
2. What are the major phases of population growth in India?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................

5.6 REGIONAL VARIATION IN POPULATION

DISTRIBUTION
Regional variation in the distribution of population in India will be discussed in terms
of total population size in the states and UTs and in terms of population density.
77
Population Studies: 5.6.1 Population Size of the states and UTs
An Overview

Table 5.4.
Projected population of states and UTs of India as on
1 March 2021

78
 Table 5.4. Share of the States and UTs to the total population in India Population Trend and
Pattern of India
SL. State 2021 1st March Percent of Population
No Projection India’s Total as Density per
per 2021 sq.km 2011
1 Uttar Pradesh 23,09,07,000 16.96 829
2 Bihar 12,30,83,000 9.04 1106
3 Maharashtra 12,44,37,000 9.14 365
4 West Bengal 9,81,25,000 7.21 1028
5 Madhya Pradesh 8,45,16,000 6.21 236
6 Rajasthan 7,92,81,000 5.82 200
7 Tamil Nadu 7,64,02,000 5.61 555
8 Karnataka 6,68,45,000 4.91 319
9 Gujarat 6,97,88,000 5.13 308
10 Andhra Pradesh 5,27,87,000 3.88 308
11 Odisha 4,40,43,000 3.24 270
12 Telangana 3,77,25,000 2.77 NA
13 Jharkhand 3,84,71,000 2.83 414
14 Kerala 3,54,89,000 2.61 860
15 Assam 3,50,43,000 2.57 398
16 Punjab 3,03,39,000 2.23 551
17 Chhattisgarh 2,94,93,000 2.17 189
18 Haryana 2,94,83,000 2.17 573
NCT Delhi 2,05,71,000 1.51 11320
UT1 Jammu & Kashmir 1,34,08,000 0.98 124
19 Uttarakhand 1,13,99,000 0.84 189
20 Himachal Pradesh 73,94,000 0.54 123
21 Tripura 40,71,000 0.30 350
22 Meghalaya 32,88,000 0.24 132
23 Manipur 31,65,000 0.23 115
24 Nagaland 21,92,000 0.16 119
25 Goa 15,59,000 0.11 394
26 Arunachal Pradesh 15,33,000 0.11 17
UT2 Puducherry 15,71,000 0.12 2547
27 Mizoram 12,16,000 0.09 52
UT3 Chandigarh 12,08,000 0.09 9258
28 Sikkim 6,77,000 0.05 86
UT Dadra & Nagar Haveli 6,08,000 0.04 700
UT4 Daman & Diu 4,69,000 0.03 2191
UT5 A.&N.Islands 4,00,000 0.03 46
UT6 Ladakh 2,97,000 0.02 NA
UT7 Lakshadweep 68,000 0.00 2149
India 1,36,13,51,000 100.00 382

Source: ORGI, MHA, GoI, 2011 79

Population Studies: The population of India is very unevenly distributed over 28 states and 8 UTs of
An Overview
India. Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in the country (Table 5.4). The state
alone is of the size of Brazil and Ecuador together. Bihar is the third most populous
state and its population size is equivalent to that of Mexico in 2022. These two
states comprise more than one-fourth population of the country. Size and density
of the population is determined by the liveability of a place. Geographical endowment
is primary condition that support a population size of a geographical region. That
is why the states located in the Indus-Ganga-Brahmaputra plain are highly populated
whereas the Himalayan states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand
and all the north-eastern states barring Assam are having less than one percent each
of country’s total population. There are as high as 18 states and UTs are having
lesser population than the NCT of Delhi which was earlier a UT. Lakshadweep is
the smallest in terms of population size according to the projected population figure
of 2021.

5.6.2 Population Age Structure

Population age structure is one of the most important reflection of the past natural
growth rate. The states of India reflect wide demographic variations in their past
history and present characteristics. The states lie in different stages of demographic
transition which simple can be reflected once median age is glanced through. Higher
median age is an indication towards a demographic structure dominated by the elderly
population. At the same time, median age below 20 years clearly indicates of young
age structure expecting high fertility rate. According to 2011 census Kerala was
the oldest with a median age of 31.9 years. However, population projection shows
that Tamil Nadu will be the oldest in 2036 with median age of 40.5 years when
Kerala will have median age of 39.6 years. In fact, in 2036 only Bihar will have
median age below 30 years (28.1 years). Median age reflects the prospects of larger
labour force in Bihar when most of the state are going to face a crunch in labour
force.

5.6.3 Population Density of the states and UTs

Population density is actually a measure of number of people in a unit of area. This
is an indication towards the analysis of the facts depicting the places where people
usually choose to live. However, there are several methods for measuring the
population density. They are as follows: arithmetic density, physiological density,
and agricultural density. In the present
context the arithmetic density is calculated
and discussed. The basic differences between
arithmetic and physiological densities:
India’s population density is 382 per square Arithmetic density, also known as real
kilometre but even in this there is wide range density, is very simply the total number
of variation. Population density of the states of people divided by the total land area.
and UTs ranges from 11320 per square Physiological density is the number of
people per unit area of arable land.
kilometre in NCT of Delhi to 17 per square
Arable describes land that is suitable
kilometre in Arunachal Pradesh. Though for growing crops. The third one is
Uttar Pradesh is highly populous state, it lags agricultural density is the proportion of
behind NCT of Delhi, Chandigarh, Bihar, total rural population and area of the
Kerala, West Bengal in terms of density arable land. A high agricultural density
which is measured as persons per square may mean that a country has inefficient
kilometre. The population density is the agriculture.
80
highest in NCT of Delhi making it the most crowded place in India. Kerala was Population Trend and
Pattern of India
the most densely populated states of India in 1991 which was toggled by West
Bengal in 2001 and by Bihar in 2011.

5.7 THE NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY (NPP)

OF 2000
The National Population Policy (NPP) of 2000 identified three primary urgent causes
for population rise. There is a relatively big fraction of the population in the
reproductive age range, so even if total fertility rate declines, overall population growth
will still be substantially high and this problem is compounded by:
 Child marriage: Due to child marriage a woman is more exposed to the
reproductive age range that is why fertility rate become high.
 Unwanted and frequent pregnancies are linked to health care and education
gaps.
 Desire of male child: The NPP estimates that the desire for a boy child
accounts about 60% of India’s population growth rate.
Uncertainty among families about how many of their children will really live till old
age is reflected in the high IMR. India’s 20 percent growth rate can be attributed
to the country’s high IMR. Low percentages of the population use birth control
and contraception. Twenty percent of India’s growth rate may be attributed to this.
In addition to this, the rapid population growth rate is caused by poverty and ignorance,
as identified in NPP 2000.

5.8 POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION

SIZE
After getting Independence and after adopting a multiparty democratic political system
India adopted for universal franchise for all adults. The multi-layered political system
has Lok Sabha at top and panchayats at the bottom with state Assembly in between.
In every layer number of people’s representatives are decided on the basis of population
size. As per Article 82 of the Constitution of India, there has to be readjustment of
seats after each census (every 10 years) and such adjustment should be based on
the population. However, this was not done after 1971 census because of
the 42ndamendment to the Constitution, that made widespread changes in the
constitution during emergency days in 1976. ‘Population control and family planning’
was included in the concurrent list with this amendment. The government of that
day was keen on promoting family planning and to control population growth. Hence
provisions were included in articles 55, 82, 170 and 330 of the constitution not to
make any changes to the number of Lok Sabha seats, Assembly seats etc. until
the figures from the first Census after the year 2000 have been published. This was
done as a measure to boost family planning norms and not to reward the non-
performing states by awarding more political representations. In other words, any
readjustment to the total number of seats had to take place only after the year 2000
when the 2001 Census figures would be published. For this purpose, in India
Delimitation Commission or a boundary Commission has been constituted from time 81
Population Studies: to time. However, the delimitation Commission in their recent work in 2008 did
An Overview
not change the number of assembly and parliamentary representation of the states
and UTs but only readjusted the boundaries and readjusted the number of reserved
seats for scheduled caste and scheduled tribe. The Commission further extended
the freezing of the constituencies till 2026. If total population size is considered for
2031, i.e., the nearest census year after 2026, then total Lok Sabha seats would
be 848.
According to the projected population size and representation according to population
size, Uttar Pradesh would have 91 Lok Sabha seats (as opposed to the present
80), and Kerala would have the 12 seats that it has now. Five major states of south
India together would lose 26 seats, whereas Bihar alone will gain 10 seats and Uttar
Pradesh 11 seats. Thus, it is assuming that it will create political imbalance in the
Lok Sabha. Moreover, it is also said that the best performing states will be punished
instead of getting rewarded.

5.9 LET US SUM UP

Population size, growth and distribution has immense implications for development.
However, it carries special relevance in a democratic country like India. Historical
data for the country was not very rich and thus scholars depended on indirect
estimation to understand the size of the population until 1872. Since 1872, when
first population census was conducted, India is providing nearly accurate estimates
of population size in this sub-continent.Till 1921 India experienced a chequered
growth pattern with not much increase in population size due to high mortality regimes
related to epidemic, war and famines. However, 1921 to 1951 is the period of
steady growth of population of India. After attaining independence, India experienced
constant and very high population growth rate above 2 percent per annum till 1981.
Only 1991 onwards India started observing a steady decline which has reached
much below 2 percent per annum in current decade.
Population size and density are extremely uneven in the country mostly because of
geographical condition of the liveability in a particular region. Size and growth of
the population has an implication in political representation by the states.
Check your progress 2
Note : (a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
(b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1. How population density is measured?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
2. Why there is no change in the Lok Sabha seats allocation after population census
of 2001?
...................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................
82
 Population Trend and
5.10 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READINGS Pattern of India

Dyson, Tim (2018). A population history of India: From the first modern people to
the present day, Oxford University Press. Oxford.
Majumdar, P.K (2013). India’s demography: Changing demographic scenario in
India, RawatPublications, Jaipur
World Population Prospects: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/
www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesapd2022wppkey-messag.pdf01 Nov,22
https://eci.gov.in/files/file/3931-delimitation-of-parliamentary-assembly-constituencies-
order-2008/ 01November, 2022
ORGI (2019). Population projections for India and states 2011 – 2036: Report of
the technical group on population projections, MHA, GoI.
Akshat Bajpai (2019). Federal Fault line: Distribution of seats in Lok Sabha between
the states, July 15, 2019. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/legal-lens/federal-
fault-line-distribution-of-seats-in-lok-sabha-between-the-states/ 01 Nov, 2022

5.11 CHECK YOUR PROGRESS - POSSIBLE

ANSWERS
Check your progress 1
Q1. Why 1921 is called a ‘great divide’ in terms of India’s population growth?
The year 1921 is known as the year of “Great Divide” because it shows negative
population growth rate. Decline in population size during 1911 to 1921 happened
because of influenza epidemic and death of seven per cent of the total population
of India. Since then the sub-continent had never experienced negative growth
of population.
Q2. What are the major phases of population growth in India?
There are four major phases of population growth in India. The stages are as
follows:
Phase I: Period of stagnant population (1901-1921)
Phase II: Period of steady growth (1921-1951)
Phase III: Period of rapid population growth (1951-1981)
Phase IV: Period of high population growth rate with a definite sign of slowing
down (1981-2011)
Check Your Progress 2
Q1. How population density is measured?
There are three methods for measuring the population density: arithmetic
density, physiological density, and agricultural density. Arithmetic density is the
total number of people divided by the total land area. Physiological density is
83
Population Studies: the number of people per unit area of arable land and agricultural density is
An Overview
the proportion of agricultural population to the arable land.
Q2. Why there is no change in the Lok Sabha seats allocation after population
census of 2001?
To encourage population stabilisation, the parliamentary representation is ceased.
If adjusted on the basis of 2011 census, Uttar Pradesh could have gained 10
more seats and Tamil Nadu could have lost 8 seats. This can create an imbalance
by curtailing the representation for the states who have controlled population
growth efficiently.

84