2018年下半年展望
2018年下半年展望
• () 1 / 0
7 % %%
• 6 4
7 % %%
• 83/ 2
6
2
- 1 0
21-Jan-18, 26,616.71 3-Jun-18, 25,316.53
27 ,00 0 3 4
1 2
26 ,00 0
25 ,00 0
24 ,00 0
23 ,00 0
18-Mar-18, 23,533.20
22 ,00 0
1-Jan-17, 19,963.80
21 ,00 0
20 ,00 0
19 ,00 0
7
8
7
8
7
7
-1 7
-17
-1 8
7
8
-17
-17
7
8
n-1
n-1
n-1
n-1
1
1
l-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
ec
ct-
ar-
ar-
ug
pr
pr
ov
ay-
ay-
eb
ep
eb
u
u
u
a
a
1-O
1-J
1-M
1-M
1-D
1-A
1-A
1-N
1-M
1-M
1-A
1-F
1-S
1-F
1-J
1-J
1-J
1-J
2018 6 3
1-J
2,2 00
2,3 00
2,4 00
2,5 00
2,6 00
2,7 00
2,8 00
2,9 00
a n-1
7
1-F
eb
-1 7
1-M
1-Jan-17, 2,276.98
ar-
1 7
1
1-A
pr
-1 7
1-M
ay-
1 7
1-J
u n-1
7
1-J
u l-1
7
1-A
ug
-17
1-S
ep
-1 7
0
1
1-O
ct-
1
500
7
1-N
ov
2
-17
1-D
ec
-17
1-J
-
a n-1
8
1-F
eb
-1 8
21-Jan-18, 2,872.87
1-M
3
ar-
1 8
1-A
pr
4
-1 8
18-Mar-18, 2,588.26
1-M
ay-
1 8
2018 6 3
1-J
u n-1
8
3-Jun-18, 2,779.03
1-J
4,8 00
5,3 00
5,8 00
6,3 00
6,8 00
a n-1
7
1-F
eb
-1 7
1-M
ar-
1-Jan-17, 5,007.08
1 7
1-A
pr
-1 7
1-M
ay-
1 7
1-J
u n-1
7
1-J
u l-1
7
1-A
ug
-17
0
1-S
ep
-1 7
1-O
1
ct-
1
100
7
1-N
ov
-17
2
1-D
ec
-17
1-J
-
a n-1
8
1-F
eb
-1 8
21-Jan-18, 7,022.97
1-M
ar-
1 8
4-Mar-18, 7,101.18
1-A
3
pr
-1 8
1-Apr-18, 6,433.21
1-M
ay-
1 8
4
2018 6 3
1-J
u n-1
8
3-Jun-18, 7,152.62
1 -
0
29-Oct-17, 13,478.86 1 2 14-Jan-18, 13,434.45
13 ,40 0
3-Jun-18, 12,766.55
3 4
12 ,90 0
12 ,40 0
1-Jan-17, 11,599.01
11 ,90 0
18-Mar-18, 11,886.31
11 ,40 0
7
8
7
8
7
7
-1 7
-17
-1 8
7
8
-17
-17
7
8
n-1
n-1
n-1
n-1
1
1
l-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
ec
ct-
ar-
ar-
ug
pr
pr
ov
ay-
ay-
eb
ep
eb
u
u
u
a
a
1-O
1-J
1-M
1-M
1-D
1-A
1-A
1-N
1-M
1-M
1-A
1-F
1-S
1-F
1-J
1-J
1-J
1-J
DAX 2018 6 3
1-J
6,7 00
6,9 00
7,1 00
7,3 00
7,5 00
7,7 00
7,9 00
a n-1
7
1-F
eb
-1 7
1-Jan-17, 7,210.05
1-M
ar-
1 7
0
1-A
pr
-1 7
1-M
ay-
1 7
1-J
u n-1
7
1-J
u l-1
7
1-A
ug
-
-17
1-S
ep
-1 7
1
1-O
ct-
1
100
7
1-N
ov
2
-17
1-D
ec
-17
1-J
a n-1
8
1-F
eb
-1 8
7-Jan-18, 7,778.64
1-M
ar-
1 8
1-A
4
pr
18-Mar-18, 6,921.94
-1 8
1-M
ay-
1 8
2018 6 3
1-J
u n-1
8
3-Jun-18, 7,681.07
0
-
21-Jan-18, 5,529.15 3-Jun-18, 5,450.22
5,7 00 1 2
29-Oct-17, 5,517.97 3 4
5,6 00
5,5 00
5,4 00
5,3 00
5,2 00
5,1 00
1-Jan-17, 4,909.84
5,0 00
18-Mar-18, 5,095.22
4,9 00
4,8 00
4,7 00
7
8
7
8
7
7
-1 7
-17
-1 8
7
8
-17
-17
7
8
n-1
n-1
n-1
n-1
1
1
l-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
ec
ct-
ar-
ar-
ug
pr
pr
ov
ay-
ay-
eb
ep
eb
u
u
u
a
a
1-O
1-J
1-M
1-M
1-D
1-A
1-A
1-N
1-M
1-M
1-A
1-F
1-S
1-F
1-J
1-J
1-J
1-J
CAC 2018 6 3
-
0 14-Jan-18, 23,808.06
3-Jun-18, 22,694.50
1 2
24 ,00 0 3 4
23 ,00 0
22 ,00 0
21 ,00 0
1-Jan-17, 19,454.33
20 ,00 0 18-Mar-18, 20,617.86
19 ,00 0
18 ,00 0
7
8
7
8
7
7
-1 7
-17
-1 8
7
8
-17
-17
7
8
n-1
n-1
n-1
n-1
1
1
l-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
ec
ct-
ar-
ar-
ug
pr
pr
ov
ay-
ay-
eb
ep
eb
u
u
u
a
a
1-O
1-J
1-M
1-M
1-D
1-A
1-A
1-N
1-M
1-M
1-A
1-F
1-S
1-F
1-J
1-J
1-J
1-J
2018 6 3
(%) 1977 1978 1986 1987 1996 1997 2006 2007 2017 2018
-3.00 0.32 -3.23 -0.59 12.77 -0.96 5.89 0.71 6.18 9.92
-1.49 1.90 -0.03 12.71 -2.06 0.58 1.05 -2.26 1.63 -6.21
-2.45 8.82 -4.09 -5.70 -1.51 -6.45 -0.71 0.76 1.56 -2.44
5.91 2.40 12.98 -1.99 0.07 2.94 5.42 2.62 2.09 2.38
0.46 2.68 -2.67 9.77 2.74 14.37 -4.82 1.55 4.25 -1.10
-0.98 17.84 -2.73 8.85 -2.16 2.97 2.58 5.52 0.41 -3.71*
-4.95 4.95 6.69 9.47 -3.08 7.69 4.33 6.49 6.05
2.36 16.32 3.10 3.81 4.47 -13.63 2.48 3.45 2.37
-2.49 -6.87 8.13 9.19 6.66 6.47 0.87 13.17 -1.49
0.17 6.31 11.95 -43.20 4.83 -29.41 4.45 15.51 2.51
0.36 -25.80 4.45 -4.54 7.34 -0.91 3.47 -8.64 3.30
-3.64 -0.78 6.18 7.69 0.43 1.86 5.30 -2.90 2.54
-9.75 22.64 46.55 -10.34 33.53 -20.29 34.20 39.31 35.99
1996 * 2018 6 22
(%) 1977 1978 1986 1987 1996 1997 2006 2007 2017 2018
3.95 6.62 7.48 10.77 13.31 6.83 6.54 8.12 6.88 11.55
4.55 2.64 5.18 13.83 4.94 6.96 4.81 7.27 5.22 11.92
4.17 9.32 8.01 10.82 11.05 9.23 3.92 6.21 5.13 7.00
5.79 5.77 15.09 7.24 4.57 7.76 7.05 6.04 4.12 5.24
3.05 4.95 5.48 11.11 6.63 14.82 10.21 4.45 5.93 5.84
3.52 18.00 2.83 9.52 4.03 10.34 6.74 8.01 2.08 7.98*
5.38 6.30 8.15 11.07 6.15 11.95 7.16 7.33 8.25
3.85 15.00 4.10 6.61 7.38 16.70 4.09 20.28 4.63
4.55 14.36 8.65 10.93 8.74 15.21 4.38 15.33 3.39
2.87 13.59 13.10 50.42 6.26 42.97 5.91 19.20 3.85
4.48 31.10 9.29 16.91 10.19 20.94 5.61 19.25 7.30
4.25 6.73 6.93 23.60 5.89 16.95 7.71 13.51 6.39
-9.75 22.64 46.55 -10.34 33.53 -20.29 34.20 39.31 35.99
1996 * 2018 6 22
&
-
Dec-98, 1,229.23
1,6 00 1,3 00
May-98, 1,411.21 Jun-98, 1,339.20
Apr-97, 1,393.75
1,4 00 1,2 00
Aug-98, 1,150.22
Sep-97, 1,097.38
1,1 00
1,2 00
Jul-97, 954.31 1,0 00
1,0 00 Dec-98, 1,146.70
May-98, 1,090.82
Apr-97, 801.34 90 0
Sep-97, 947.28 Jun-98, 1,133.84
80 0 Aug-98, 957.28
Jan-96, 537.35 80 0
60 0 Jan-96, 636.02 70 0
40 0 60 0
Apr-9 6
Apr-9 7
Apr-9 8
Fe b-9 6
Se p-9 6
Fe b-9 7
Se p-9 7
Fe b-9 8
Se p-9 8
Dec-9 6
Dec-9 7
Dec-9 8
-6
-7
-8
Nov -96
Nov -97
Nov -98
Jan -96
Jan -97
Jan -98
Ma r-96
Ma r-97
Ma r-98
Oct-96
Oct-97
Oct-98
Jun -96
Jun -97
Jun -98
Jul -96
Jul -97
Jul -98
Ma y-96
Ma y-97
Ma y-98
Aug 9
Aug 9
Aug 9
S&P 500
60
4,0 00
3 4
50.42
50
3,5 00
1 2
40
3,0 00
30
2,5 00
10% 23.60
16.91 20
2,0 00
15.09 13.83
13.10
10.77 10.82 11.11 11.07 10.93
8.65 9.29 9.52
1,5 00 7.48 8.01 8.15 7.24 10
6.93 6.61
5.18 5.48
2.83 4.10
1,0 00 0
6
7
6
7
-86
-87
6
86
87
-86
-87
6
7
-86
-87
6
7
r-8
r-8
t-8
t-8
y-8
y-8
r-8
c-8
r-8
c-8
b-8
p-8
b-8
p-8
g 8-
v-
g 8-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Oc
Oc
Ap
Ap
De
De
No
No
Au
Au
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Fe
Se
Fe
Se
(%)
17 ,00 0 50
3 4
16 ,00 0 42.97 45
40
15 ,00 0 1 2
35
14 ,00 0
10%
30
13 ,00 0
25
12 ,00 0 20.94
20
16.70 16.95
11 ,00 0 14.82 15.21
13.31 15
11.05 11.95
10 ,00 0 10.19 10.34
8.74 9.23 10
7.38 6.96 7.76
4.94
6.63 6.15 6.26 5.89 6.83
9,0 00 4.57 4.03 5
8,0 00 0
6
7
6
7
-96
-97
6
96
97
-96
-97
6
7
-96
-97
6
7
r-9
r-9
t-9
t-9
y-9
y-9
r-9
c-9
r-9
c-9
b-9
p-9
b-9
p-9
g 9-
v-
g 9-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Oc
Oc
Ap
Ap
De
De
No
No
Au
Au
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Fe
Se
Fe
Se
(%)
25
30 ,00 0
20.28
3 4 19.20 19.25 20
25 ,00 0 15.33
1 2 15
13.51
20 ,00 0 10.21
10
7.71 8.12 7.27 8.01
7.33
6.54 7.05 6.74 7.16
5.91 5.61 6.21 6.04
15 ,00 0 4.81 4.45
3.92 4.09 4.38 5
10 ,00 0 0
6
7
6
7
-06
-07
6
06
07
-06
-07
6
7
-06
-07
6
7
r-0
r-0
t-0
t-0
y-0
y-0
r-0
c-0
r-0
c-0
b-0
p-0
b-0
p-0
g 0-
v-
g 0-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Oc
Oc
Ap
Ap
De
De
No
No
Au
Au
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Fe
Se
Fe
Se
(%)
2010-2011
25
23.32
30 ,00 0
19.36 20
17.56
25 ,00 0
15
12.60 12.89
10 ,00 0 0
0
1
0
1
-10
-11
0
10
11
-10
-11
0
1
-10
-11
0
1
r-1
r-1
t-1
t-1
y-1
y-1
r-1
c-1
r-1
c-1
b-1
p-1
b-1
p-1
g 1-
v-
g 1-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Oc
Oc
Ap
Ap
De
De
No
No
Au
Au
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Fe
Se
Fe
Se
(%)
1978 1987 1997 2007
0
5
Jan -74
Fe b-7 5
Ma r-76
Apr-7 7
Ma y-78
Jun -79
Jul -80
Aug 8
-1
Se p-8 2
Oct-83
Nov -84
Dec-8 5
Jan -87
Fe b-8 8
Ma r-89
Apr-9 0
Ma y-91
Jun -92
Jul -93
Aug 9
-4
Se p-9 5
Oct-96
Nov -97
Dec-9 8
Jan -00
Fe b-0 1
Ma r-02
Apr-0 3
Ma y-04
Jun -05
Jul -06
Aug 0
-7
Se p-0 8
Oct-09
Nov -10
Dec-1 1
Jan -13
Fe b-1 4
Ma r-15
Apr-1 6
Ma y-17
2018 5 31
0
5,0 00
10 ,00 0
15 ,00 0
20 ,00 0
25 ,00 0
30 ,00 0
2010 2011 2018
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
20,121.99 -8.00 12.60 23,447.34 1.79 5.98 32,887.27 9.92 11.55
20,608.70 2.42 6.75 23,338.02 -0.47 6.55 30,844.72 -6.21 11.92
21,239.35 3.06 4.25 23,527.52 0.81 7.76 30,093.38 -2.44 7.00
21,108.59 -0.62 7.65 23,720.81 0.82 4.25 30,808.45 2.38 5.24
19,765.19 -6.36 9.67 23,684.13 -0.15 5.92 30,468.56 -1.10 5.84
20,128.99 1.84 8.83 22,398.10 -5.43 9.28 29,338.70* -3.71* 7.98*
21,029.81 4.48 7.06 22,440.25 0.19 5.46
20,536.49 -2.35 6.82 20,534.85 -8.49 17.56
22,358.17 8.87 9.30 17,592.41 -14.33 19.36
23,096.32 3.30 6.10 19,864.87 12.92 23.32
23,007.99 -0.38 9.55 17,989.35 -9.44 12.89
23,035.45 0.12 5.30 18,434.39 2.47 7.90
Ә" $ 5.32 -19.97
* 2018 6 22
1974 1982 1994 2008 2018
12 12 12 10
0
20 0
40 0
60 0
80 0
Jan
-71
Ma
r-7
1
Ma
y-7
1
Jan-71, 220.73
Jul
-71
Se
p-7
1
No
v-
71
Jan
-72
Ma
r-7
2
Ma
y-7
2
Jul
-72
Se
p-7
2
No
v-
72
Jan
-73
Ma
r-7
3
Feb-73, 1,625.63
Ma
y-7
3
Jul
-73
Se
p-7
3
No
v-
73
Dec-73, 433.68
Jan
-74
Ma
r-7
4
Ma
Jan-74, 452.98
y-7
4
Jul
-74
Se
p-7
4
Jun-74, 399.36
No
v-
74
Dec-74, 171.11
2,0 00
Jun-81, 1,734.36
1,8 00
1,6 00
Jan-82, 1,417.42
1,2 00
Dec-81, 1,405.82
Dec-82, 783.82
1,0 00
80 0 Jan-79, 543.06
Mar-80, 783.22
60 0
40 0
9
2
79
80
81
82
-79
-80
-81
-82
9
2
-79
-80
-81
-82
9
2
r-7
r-8
r-8
r-8
p-7
p-8
p-8
p-8
y-7
y-8
y-8
y-8
v-
v-
v-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
No
No
No
No
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Se
Se
Se
Se
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Dec-93, 11,888.39
13 ,00 0
Jan-94, 11,487.02
12 ,00 0
11 ,00 0
10 ,00 0
9,0 00
6,0 00
Jan-92, 4,601.78
5,0 00
Jan-91, 3,243.30
4,0 00
3,0 00
1
4
91
92
93
94
-91
-92
-93
-94
1
4
-91
-92
-93
-94
1
4
r-9
r-9
r-9
r-9
p-9
p-9
p-9
p-9
y-9
y-9
y-9
y-9
v-
v-
v-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
No
No
No
No
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Se
Se
Se
Se
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Oct-07, 31,352.58
Dec-07, 27,812.65
30 ,00 0
Jan-08, 23,455.74
Jun-08, 22,102.01
25 ,00 0
20 ,00 0
Jan-06, 15,753.14
Jan-05, 13,721.69
15 ,00 0
Oct-08, 13,968.67
10 ,00 0
5
8
05
06
07
08
-05
-06
-07
-08
5
8
-05
-06
-07
-08
5
8
r-0
r-0
r-0
r-0
p-0
p-0
p-0
p-0
y-0
y-0
y-0
y-0
v-
v-
v-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
No
No
No
No
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Se
Se
Se
Se
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Jan-18, 32,887.27
32 ,00 0
Dec-17, 29,919.15
30 ,00 0
Apr-15, 28,133.00
28 ,00 0
May-18, 30,468.56
26 ,00 0
Jan-14, 22,035.42
24 ,00 0
Feb-16, 19,111.93
22 ,00 0
20 ,00 0
18 ,00 0
4
7
14
15
16
17
-14
-15
-16
-17
-18
4
8
-14
-15
-16
-17
4
8
r-1
r-1
r-1
r-1
r-1
p-1
p-1
p-1
p-1
y-1
y-1
y-1
y-1
y-1
v-
v-
v-
v-
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
No
No
No
No
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Se
Se
Se
Se
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
2018 5 31
1974 1982 1994 2008 2018
1 21.13 16.14 21.82 17.76 17.58
2 16.84 14.36 19.68 18.34 15.37
3 14.17 11.94 15.08 14.03 13.39
4 12.28 10.60 15.02 15.50 13.30
5 16.31 11.14 15.84 14.76 13.22
6 16.13 10.29 14.49 13.43
7 13.71 9.51 15.69 13.81
8 11.11 8.40 16.43 12.77
9 8.73 7.43 15.64 10.72
10 9.23 6.18 15.21 8.27
11 7.32 5.57 13.60 8.22
12 7.09 6.20 13.16 8.52
Nov-89, 38,915.87
38 ,00 0
33 ,00 0
Sep-91, 25,222.28
28 ,00 0 Dec-17, 23,098.29
May-96, 22,530.75
May-97, 20,604.96 Jun-15, 20,585.24
23 ,00 0
Feb-00, 20,337.32
May-07, 18,138.36
18 ,00 0
20 ,00 0
Apr-08, 14,230.25
Apr-15, 14,431.11
15 ,00 0 Mar-11, 13,315.84
Dec-06, 10,340.36
Aug-97, 6,349.69
Dec-03, 5,020.18 Sep-11, 8,917.36
Feb-16, 7,916.34
5,0 00 Oct-08, 6,611.15
Jun-99, 2,690.78
Jul-93, 3,769.81
Jul-96, 3,288.20 Aug-98, 1,043.55
0
-93
-94
-95
-96
-97
-98
-99
-00
-01
-02
-03
-04
-05
-06
-07
-08
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
-16
-17
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
10 ( ) 2018 5 31
Oct-07, 5,954.77
6,0 00
Jan-18, 3,480.83
4,0 00
Jul-09, 3,412.06
3,0 00
Jun-01, 2,218.03
Jun-99, 1,689.43
Mar-04, 1,741.62
2,0 00 Feb-16, 2,687.98
Apr-93, 1,358.78 Apr-97, 1,393.75
-92
-93
-94
-95
-96
-97
-98
-99
-00
-01
-02
-03
-04
-05
-06
-07
-08
-09
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
-16
-17
-18
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
10 ( ) 2018 5 31
4
. L
1 OA 1 5 N
.G
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