US election results: When will we know who is the next President?

US election results 2024: While November 5 may be Election Day, a final picture could take days or weeks to
emerge due to the neck-and-neck contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Here is a complete
guide.
India Today News Desk
New Delhi,UPDATED: Nov 5, 2024 17:54 IST
Written By: Abhishek De

In Short

 A final picture of presidential poll results could take hours or days to emerge

 US has no national election commission to tabulate the results

 51 states have separate elections, thus holding up the counting process

Fifty-one separate elections, one in every US state, and each with its own rules and practices
for counting the votes makes the presidential election a gruelling and fragmented affair. While
November 5 may be "Election Day", a final picture could take hours or days to emerge due to
the neck-and-neck contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald
Trump.
Compounding the matter is the fact that, unlike India, the US has no national election
commission to tabulate the results. The state and local governments are responsible for
counting the votes. Thus, the citizens of the US and the world keep an eye out on the American
media, which "calls" the elections within hours of the end of voting.
In a vast country like the US, polls close at different times in different regions. The US has
six time zones. According to the BBC, the last polls will close at 01.00 EST, which, as per Indian
time, will be 11.30 am on Wednesday. Thus, by Wednesday night, a clear picture of the trends
may start to emerge about who is ahead in the race to occupy the White House.
However, that too is dependent on a host of factors given the complex nature of the US election
process. Of the 51 states, most of them have a predictable voting pattern, and their results are
announced first after voting. However, it is the seven swing or battleground states that hold the
key, and it might delay the final results.

In swing states, which have 93 electoral college votes, candidates of both the Democratic and
Republican parties have similar levels of support. These swing states, especially
Pennsylvania, will decide the next President. Narrow margins of victory in these swing states
may require votes to be recounted, which will further delay the process. Legal challenges are
also possible.

At the heart of the convoluted process is the electoral college system of presidential elections in
the US. Unlike in India where citizens directly choose their candidate, Americans vote for
electors who are selected by that candidate's party.
The states are allocated a certain number of electors depending on their population size. There
are a total of 538 electors and they form the electoral college. A candidate needs 270 votes to
clinch the White House race. Thus, the popular vote nationally does not determine the final
result.

WHEN WERE THE 2020 AND 2016 ELECTION RESULTS DECLARED?

The 2020 US presidential election took place on November 3. However, it took four days
(November 7) for the media to declare that Democrat Joe Biden had defeated Trump after the
result in Pennsylvania became clearer. The margin in the key swing state was just 1.1
percentage points.

In 2020, initially Trump had an 11% lead. However, Biden snatched the lead over the next two
days as mail-in ballots were counted.

The Associated Press has usually been the first media house to call elections in the US and
has been doing so with near accuracy since 1848, when it declared Zachary Taylor as the 12th
US president.

In the 2016 polls, the Associated Press had correctly declared Trump the winner on election
night. The BBC declared the winner the next morning.

If we go back to 2012, Barack Obama was projected as the winner before midnight on polling
day itself.

WHEN CAN WE EXPECT OFFICIAL RESULTS OF US POLLS?

However, media houses declaring the winner is not the end of the election process. Rather, it is
the beginning.

After the votes are cast, the states certify the results and the process has to be completed by
December 11. Six days later, the 538 electors meet in their respective state capitals to formally
cast their votes for the President and Vice President.

The certificates of these votes are then submitted to the US Senate chief by the fourth
Wednesday of December.

On January 6, 2025, the US Congress convenes to count the electoral votes. It is on this day
that the US voters officially get to know the number of votes cast for each candidate and the
winner of the election. On January 20, the inauguration ceremony for the President takes place
in Washington.
EXPLAINER
News|US Election 2024

How will US Election Day unfold?

Here is an hour by hour breakdown of when the polls will open and close
during the 2024 US general election.

By Sarah Shamim
Published On 4 Nov 20244 Nov 2024
|
Updated:
an hour ago

Millions of Americans will head to polling booths on Tuesday to cast their

ballots in the 2024 presidential election, in which Democratic
candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, are locked
in a tight race.

There are 230 million eligible voters, but only about 160 million of them are
registered. Nearly half of the 50 states in the United States, however, allow
on-the-day registration while citizens can vote without registering in North
Dakota.

More than 70 million people have already voted through postal ballots or at
early in-person polling stations.

Voters will also elect 34 US senators (out of 100) and all 435 members for
the US House of Representatives. Additionally, gubernatorial races will take
place in 11 states and two territories (Puerto Rico and American Samoa).

The US stretches across six time zones. Using US East Coast time (ET), voting will
start as early as 5am (10:00 GMT) on Tuesday and go as late as 1am (06:00 GMT)
on Wednesday.

We break down when polls open and close across the states:

5am ET (10:00 GMT)

Polls open at different times from state to state. The earliest voting will
start well before dawn in some municipalities in Vermont.
6am ET (11:00 GMT)

Polls open in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Virginia. Some polls
in Indiana and Kentucky also open.

In Maine, polls open from 6am ET to 10am ET (15:00 GMT) depending on

the municipality guidelines. In New Hampshire, polls open from 6am ET to
11am ET (16:00 GMT).

6:30am ET (11:30 GMT)

Polls open in the battleground state of North Carolina as well as the red
states of Ohio and West Virginia. States that traditionally back Republicans
are called red states.

7am ET (12:00 GMT)

Polls open in Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Illinois,

Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
and South Carolina.

Some polls in Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan also open at
this time. In Tennessee, voting starts from 7am ET to 10am ET (15:00 GMT)
depending on the municipality.

Georgia is a critical swing state. In the 2020 election, Democrat Joe

Biden won by 0.2 percentage points over Trump, making it the narrowest
margin of victory that year.

From 1972 to 2016, Republican candidates would usually sweep Georgia.

However, races have become tighter in the state recently due to
demographic changes.

8am ET (13:00 GMT)

Polls open in Alabama, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oklahoma

and Wisconsin. Some polls in Florida, Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota and
Texas also open at this time.

In North Dakota, voting starts from 8am ET to 11am ET (15:00 GMT)

depending on the municipality.

Arizona recently became a swing state when Biden defeated Trump by 0.3
percentage points four years ago. From 1952 to 2016, the Republican
presidential candidate won in Arizona with one exception – Democrat Bill
Clinton when he ran against Republican Robert Dole in 1996.

8am ET (13:30 GMT)

Arkansas starts voting.

9am ET (14:00 GMT)

People start casting ballots in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico,

Utah and Wyoming. Polls also open at this time in some parts of South
Dakota, Oregon and Texas and for the New Shoreham municipality in Rhode
Island.

In Idaho, polls open from 9am ET to 11am ET (16:00 GMT) depending on

the municipality.

10am ET (15:00 GMT)

Voting starts in California and Nevada as well as some parts of Oregon. In

Washington, polls open from 10am ET to noon ET (17:00 GMT) depending
on the municipality.

11am ET (16:00 GMT)

Some polls open in Alaska, a state with two time zones. The state’s other
polls open at noon ET (17:00 GMT)

12pm ET (17:00 GMT)

Polls open in Hawaii.

Polls start to close at 6pm ET (23:00 GMT)

Some polls in Indiana and Kentucky close.

7pm ET (00:00 GMT)

Polls close in six states: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and the
remainder of Indiana and Kentucky.
Trump disputed the 2020 Georgia election result. He was later indicted on
charges of election interference there. False claims about election fraud in
the swing state in this election are already circulating.

Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina are leaning towards Trump while
Virginia and Vermont are expected to go to Harris.

7:30pm ET (00:30 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia.

In 2020 in North Carolina, Trump won the battleground state by 1.3

percentage points over Biden, and in 2016, Trump won the state by 3.6
percentage points over Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

From 1980 to 2020, Republicans have won in North Carolina in every

election except 2008 when Democrat Barack Obama won against John
McCain by 0.3 percentage points.

Ohio and West Virginia have historically voted Republican, and a Trump win is
expected in the two states.

8pm ET (01:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine,

Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New
Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington and
the District of Columbia.

Most polls in Michigan and Texas also close at this time.

Pennsylvania is a swing state that Biden won by 1.2 percentage points in

2020. In 2016, Trump won against Clinton by 0.7 percentage points.

After a Democratic win in 1976, Republicans swept the state from 1980 to
1988. From 1992 to 2012, Democrats won Pennsylvania.

8:30pm ET (01:30 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Arkansas, marking a conclusion of voting in half of the US

states.

Arkansas is expected to go to Trump because Republicans have won

comfortably in the state from 2000 to 2020.
9pm ET (02:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in 15 states: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Kansas,

Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, Nebraska, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

These include three swing states: Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

From 1976 to 2020, Republicans have won in Arizona every election except
1996 and 2020. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 0.3 percentage points. In
2016, Trump beat Clinton by 3.6 percentage points.

From 1992 to 2020, Michigan has swung blue for Democrats every election
except 2016 when Trump beat Clinton by 0.2 percentage points. In 2020,
Biden beat Trump in the state by 2.8 percentage points. But US support for
Israel’s war on Gaza could turn the sizeable number of Arab American
voters in the state towards Trump or the Green Party’s Jill Stein.

Wisconsin has also historically turned blue, doing so in every election from
1988 to 2020 except in 2016 when Trump defeated Clinton by 0.7
percentage points. In 2020, Biden won the state by 0.7 percentage points.

10pm ET (03:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Montana, Nevada and Utah.

Montana and Utah are expected to go to Trump. Nevada, however, is a

swing state.

While Republicans won the state from 1976 to 1988, Democrats have won
there since 2008. In 2020, Biden won by 2.4 percentage points. In 2016,
Clinton beat Trump by 2.4 percentage points.

11pm ET (04:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.

California is the most populous US state, and it is expected to go to Harris,

who is from California and has represented the state in the US Senate and
served as its attorney general.

From 1992 to 2020, Democrats have won comfortably in California.

Oregon and Washington are also likely to see a Harris victory while Idaho is
expected to go to Trump.
Midnight ET (05:00 GMT on Wednesday)

Polls close in Hawaii and parts of Alaska.

Trump is expected to win in Alaska while Harris is expected to win in

Hawaii.

1am ET on Wednesday (06:00 GMT)

The final polls close in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.

Florida Stopped Being a Swing

State Slowly, Then All at Once
Once a top presidential battleground, the state is lost to Democrats. The
party’s missteps, along with demographic change, led to every one of
Florida’s 67 counties becoming more red.

By Patricia Mazzei

Patricia Mazzei reported from Miami, where she has covered elections since 2008.

Oct. 29, 2024

Florida’s days as a presidential battleground are bygone. No longer do

candidates drop in every few days during campaign season. No longer do
voters get bombarded with their ads. Nor is there more than a whisper of
doubt that the state will vote Republican.

Presidential elections in Florida used to be decided by the slimmest of

margins — none slimmer than the 537 votes that, after an infamous recount,
won George W. Bush the White House in 2000. Republicans and Democrats
waged fierce campaigns during the two decades that followed as Florida,
rich in electoral votes, became the largest swing state.
In the past four years, the Florida Democratic Party has withered and
struggled to rebuild. Democrats have lost their edge in registered voters
and are now outnumbered by more than one million Republicans. They have
not won a statewide seat since 2018. National fund-raising has all but dried
up.
The loss of Florida as a source of electoral votes looms large as Democrats
scrap for every last vote across seven swing states in the 2024 presidential
election.
Presidential elections in Florida used to be decided by the slimmest of
margins — none slimmer than the 537 votes that won George W. Bush the
White House in 2000. Mr. Bush, with his brother Jeb Bush, left, then the
governor of Florida, at a rally in November 2000.Credit...Tony
Gutierrez/Associated Press.
The reasons are in some cases structural and longstanding: demographics,
partisan gerrymandering and legislative term limits. But others are of
Democrats’ own making: an unwillingness to invest enough in the nuts and
bolts of winning elections; fund-raising divisions; and flawed assumptions
about the growing Hispanic vote, according to an examination of voter
registration numbers, campaign spending and more than two dozen
interviews with political operatives from both parties.
What happens in November and in the next few election cycles in Florida
will be a test for the country’s politics, as more people move to Sun Belt
states and those states get more electoral votes. Democrats will have to
make inroads there — a lot of them — to win the presidency.
“The story of Florida is not just the story of Florida,” said Raymond Paultre,
the executive director of the Alliance, a group of Democratic donors in the
state. “It’s the story of a progressive movement that’s struggling to make it
in the South, that’s struggling to compete with younger voters of color, that
is struggling to win with younger men.”
The shortcomings in Florida became evident in 2020, when national
Democrats largely abandoned spending in the state.
Two years earlier, Democrats had run a moderate incumbent, Bill Nelson,
for Senate, and a progressive, Andrew Gillum, for governor, covering all
their political bases. Both lost after recounts. Mr. Nelson lost to Senator
Rick Scott, a Republican whose vast wealth has helped him win three
statewide elections by one percentage point or less.

Florida started looking impossible for Democrats to crack.

While Democrats lost their footing, Republicans seized opportunities to

reshape Florida’s electorate to their advantage. A torrent of conservative
policies have followed, intended to cement the state as an anchor of
Republican power.

The results have forced Democrats to try to remake their electoral pathways
to victory, as Florida slipped away from them.

In 2020, Joseph R. Biden Jr. won the White House, but the state went for
former President Donald J. Trump, ending Floridians’ streak of voting for
the winner in every presidential election since 1996. Mr. Trump’s victory in
Florida that year, by a little more than three percentage points, was the
biggest presidential margin in the state since 2004.
This year, polls show Mr. Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in
the state by an average of seven points.
Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican who was elected in 2018 by less than half
a percentage point, has taken credit for Florida’s transformation, though it
took years to build. He won re-election in 2022 by more than 19 points, a
thumping that he had hoped would fuel his presidential campaign and
quash any notion that Democrats might soon be competitive again.

“This whole century, presidential elections, we’d be on razor’s edge about

the state of Florida,” Mr. DeSantis told Republicans at a state party dinner
last month. Now, he added, winning is “a layup.”

“Are you happy that we’re a solid Republican state?” he asked. The crowd
cheered.

Organizational missteps

Democrats describe Florida’s political evolution as happening gradually and

then all at once.

In 2012, the last time a Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama,

won the state, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Florida by nearly 1.5
million voters. Since then, every one of the state’s 67 counties has become
more Republican.

By 2020, Democrats’ registration edge had fallen to about 97,000 voters. As

of Sept. 1, the state, with about 16.1 million voters overall, has about one
million more “active” registered Republicans than Democrats. The state has
disproportionately listed more Democrats as “inactive” voters, said Daniel
A. Smith, an elections expert at the University of Florida. Voters are
deemed inactive if they have not voted, requested a mail ballot or updated
their registration in two general elections.
Some new Republicans are party switchers — longtime registered
Democrats who had probably been voting Republican for years — a
realignment that has happened across the South. Others moved to Florida
as part of a migration that began earlier but swelled during the coronavirus
pandemic.
Yet political parties and their leaders also played a role.

The Republican Party of Florida is one of the country’s best funded state parties, owing to 25
years of Republican state government control. Crucially, the party runs its own voter
registration program.
Democrats have not won a Florida governor’s race since 1994. Republicans draw legislative
districts and have supermajorities in the State House and Senate.

Unable to wield much power, the Florida Democratic Party increasingly outsourced voter
registration over the past decade to nonprofit groups. Decentralizing the party was intended to
create an enduring progressive infrastructure, but despite raising millions of dollars, outside
groups failed to register voters in large numbers. New state laws made it even harder for them
to do so.

Decentralization also led to fund-raising divisions. After Mr. Obama’s success in Florida, a group
of Democratic donors sought more discretion over their own spending. Imitating a model that
had succeeded in Colorado, they formed the Alliance, which channeled resources to progressive
causes rather than to the party.

That change crippled a state party that, absent a governor to drive fund-raising, relied heavily
on individual donors, said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist.

“There’s definitely a place for the outside groups,” he said. “What we did was just completely
knifed the actual party in doing it.”

But Carlos Odio, the Alliance’s former executive director, said that such criticism was
misplaced, noting that “in states that have very successful infrastructure, you have both a
strong party and a strong outside ecosystem.”

He added, “The way you beat a more powerful opponent is by building a larger coalition.”

Strategic miscalculations
Florida Democrats thought their coalition would grow as the state became
more Hispanic, a longstanding assumption in a number of states. In 2012,
about 14 percent of registered Florida voters identified as Hispanic,
compared to more than 18 percent this year.

Florida Republicans prioritized Hispanics starting in the 1980s, led by Jeb

Bush, who chaired the party in Miami-Dade County and later served two
terms as governor. As a result, Florida Hispanics, who were mostly Cuban
American, usually voted Republican. As older Cuban exiles died, Democrats
thought that younger generations would lean Democratic. Mr. Obama’s
wins bolstered that hypothesis.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won about 62 percent of Hispanics in Florida but

still lost the state. Her campaign turned out minority voters but failed to
limit losses in whiter counties, as Mr. Obama had done.

Florida’s booming suburbs and exurbs, especially in the Tampa media

market, had become more Republican. People drawn to Mr. Trump —
particularly older white voters and those without a college degree — proved
plentiful in the state, which has many retirees and service workers.
Democrats had a Tampa problem. Soon, they would also have a Miami
problem.

Hispanics comprise about 68 percent of the population of Miami-Dade

County. Mrs. Clinton won the county, Florida’s most populous, by 30
percentage points. Four years later, Mr. Biden won it by just seven points.

From 2016 to 2020, Republicans relentlessly courted Florida Hispanics. Mr.

Trump cut the ties Mr. Obama had forged with Cuba’s Communist
government. As governor, Mr. Scott learned some Spanish and offered
Puerto Ricans aid after Hurricane Maria. Senator Marco Rubio — a Cuban
American who speaks fluent Spanish — obtained sanctions against the
Venezuelan government.
Working-class Hispanics suffered during the pandemic. Protests over police
violence exposed a rift between Hispanics and progressive groups.
Trumpism appealed to the demographic more broadly, it turned out,
including to many who had voted Democratic in the past.

By 2020, younger Cuban Americans were voting more like their

grandparents. An influx of new arrivals who had seen little improvement to
life there during the Obama era favored Mr. Trump.

“There was essentially a realignment in South Florida,” said Giancarlo

Sopo, a Cuban American consultant who switched from Democrat to
Republican.

Can Democrats rebuild?

Perhaps the 2022 midterms were Florida Democrats’ low point. Their
nominee for governor, Charlie Crist, was a former Republican who did not
inspire loyalty. Little national money trickled in. Turnout collapsed: About
600,000 fewer Democrats voted than in 2018, according to Matthew Isbell,
a Democratic data consultant.

This year, Nikki Fried, the state party chairwoman, portrayed Florida as
back in play. But operatives know their victories, if any, might be small:
Improve turnout. Win some legislative seats. Keep the presidential and
Senate races to single-digit margins.

“We’re not going to go from a 20-point drubbing in 2022 to ‘Everything is

fine,’” said Beth Matuga, a Democratic consultant running state House
campaigns.

Democrats flipped the mayor’s office in Jacksonville last year and a state
House seat in Orlando this year. Nearly half the candidates for local school
boards endorsed by Mr. DeSantis lost in August primaries. Mayor Daniella
Levine Cava of Miami-Dade County, a Democrat, easily won re-election.
In November, Democrats’ biggest win could come from a ballot measure
that would guarantee abortion rights. But the measure, known as
Amendment 4, would need 60 percent support to pass.
The state party recently spent several million more dollars on pro-
Amendment 4 ads, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks political
advertisements. The “Yes on 4” campaign, however, emphasized that it is
nonpartisan. Democratic support would not be enough to win.
Patricia Mazzei is the lead reporter for The Times in Miami, covering Florida and Puerto
Rico. More about Patricia Mazzei