Population

PYQs
[2024] What is the concept of a ‘demographic winter’? Is the world moving towards such a
situation? Elaborate.

[2023] Why did human development fail to keep pace with economic development in India?
10

[2021] Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to
achieve them in India in detail. 15

Answer writing framework

Introduction
1. Start with recent context or data
Main Body
1. Use map to highlight population density
2. For migration classify points under push and pull factors

1
3. For other type of questions - PESTLE

2
3
 4. Content enrichment
a. Government measures in box
b. Global best practices
Conclusion
1. Conclude with SDG or inclusive growth

NFHS (National Family Health Survey)

Indicator NFHS-5 NFHS-4

(2019-21) (2015-16)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (children per woman) 2.0 2.2
Women age 15-19 years who were already mothers 6.8 7.9
or pregnant at the time of the survey (%)

Current Use of Family Planning Methods - Any 66.7 53.5

method (%)
Current Use of Family Planning Methods - Any 56.4 47.8
modern method (%)
Total unmet need for Family Planning (%) 9.4 12.9
Mothers who had an antenatal check-up in the 70.0 58.6
first trimester (%)
Mothers who had at least 4 antenatal care visits 58.5 51.2
(%)
Mothers who received postnatal care within 2 78.0 62.4
days of delivery (%)
Institutional births (%) 88.6 78.9
Children age 12-23 months fully vaccinated (%) 76.6 62.0

Children under age 6 months exclusively 63.7 54.9

breastfed (%)
Neonatal Mortality Rate (NNMR) (per 1,000 live 24.9 29.5
births)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) (per 1,000 live births) 35.2 40.7

Under-five Mortality Rate (U5MR) (per 1,000 live 41.9 49.7

births)

Key Similarities and Differences between the Three Theories

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Aspect Malthusian Theory Marxian Theory Demographic
Transition Theory
Proponent Thomas Malthus Karl Marx Not attributed to a
single individual, but
developed over time by
various demographers
and sociologists

Core Idea Population growth Population growth is Population growth is

tends to outpace food influenced by linked to economic
supply, leading to capitalist policies development, and
famine, disease, and that exploit labor, societies transition
death (positive checks) leading to surplus through stages of high
unless preventive population and birth/death rates to low
checks are applied. poverty. birth/death rates.

Population Increases geometrically Population growth is Population growth

Growth (1, 2, 4, 8, etc.), while not driven by fertility changes in stages based
food supply increases but by the on socio-economic
arithmetically (1, 2, 3, exploitation of labor development, starting
4, etc.). under capitalism. with high birth/death
rates and moving
towards low
birth/death rates.

Food Supply Cannot keep up with Starvation and Not directly tied to
the rapidly growing poverty are results of food supply, but the
population, leading to a the unequal theory explains how
gap and subsequent distribution of economic development
crisis. resources under leads to changes in
capitalism, not population growth.
population growth.

Checks on Positive checks Emphasizes the need Socio-economic

Population (famine, disease) and for the fall of development and
preventive checks capitalism to control changes in societal
(moral restraint, late population growth. structure reduce birth
marriage). and death rates over
time.

Applicability Focuses on the Applies primarily to Applies broadly to

potential for capitalist societies, societies undergoing
overpopulation leading not to all economic development
to resource scarcity. socio-economic and modernization.
systems.

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Criticism Underestimated Overemphasis on Oversimplifies the
technological advances capitalism as the process of demographic
in food production and cause of population transition, with
resource management. issues, neglecting variations in how
other socio-economic different societies
factors. experience these
stages.

Relevance Influential in Relevant in critiques Widely used to

Today discussions about of capitalist systems understand population
resource scarcity and and discussions dynamics in relation to
sustainable about inequality. economic and social
development. changes.

Population Growth:
Since the first Indian Census in 1871, India has
recorded a massive growth in population.
Currently, India is the world’s most populous
country with 142.86 crore people.
The phases of population growth /
demographic transition, can be classified into
four distinct phases of growth:
(1901-1921): Phase of stagnant growth.
(1921-1951): Phase of steady growth.
(1951-1981): Phase of rapid growth.
(1981- 2011): Phase of high growth with
declining trend.

1. Phase of Stagnant Growth

(1901-1921):
a. The population increased slightly
from 23.8 to 25.1 crores, registering
a low growth rate of 0.57%.
b. The birth rate was high at 47 per 1000, but it was offset by an equally high death
rate of 45 per 1000.
c. High Infant Mortality Rate at 218 per 1000 births.
d. The inadequate health infrastructure and ineffective British administration failed
to tackle epidemics like the plague and the Spanish flu, leading to stagnant
population growth.
e. The period 1911-1921 witnessed a decline in population from 25.2 to 25.1 crores,
marking 1921 as the "year of demographic divide" in India's demographic history.
2. Phase of Steady Growth (1921-1951):
a. The population increased from 25.1 to 36.1 crores, with a moderate growth rate
of 1.33%.
b. Birth rates remained stable at 42 per 1000, while death rates significantly
dropped from 45 to 27 per 1000.
c. Improvements in health infrastructure, along with successful epidemic control
measures, were crucial in reducing death rates.

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 d. India entered the second stage of demographic transition during this period,
characterized by high birth rates and declining death rates.
3. Phase of Rapid Population Growth (1951-1981):
a. Population almost doubled from 36.1 to 68.3 crores, with a high growth rate of
2.14%, marking this period as the “Rapid High Growth” phase.
b. The third stage of demographic transition was marked by declining birth rates
(from 42 to 32 per 1000) and a steep fall in death rates (from 27 to 15 per 1000).
c. Government initiatives such as family planning programs, healthcare
improvements, and mass vaccination campaigns played a vital role in controlling
mortality and promoting population growth.
4. Phase of High Growth with Declining Trend (1981-2011):
a. The population grew from 68.3 to 121 crores, with a steady fall in the birth rate
from 32 to 22 per 1000 and a further decline in the death rate to 7 per 1000.
b. This phase saw India entering the final stage of demographic transition,
characterized by a narrowing gap between birth and death rates.
c. Economic growth post-1991 reforms was a significant factor in reducing birth
and death rates, leading to a more stable population growth trajectory.

Population Density
India's Density (2011): India's population density
in 2011 was 382 persons per sq km, rising from 117
persons per sq km in 1951, showing a steady increase
of 265 persons over 60 years.

Regional Differences: The eastern region of India

had the highest population density at 625 persons per
sq km, while the North East had the lowest at 176
persons per sq km.

Comparative Densities: After the eastern region,

central India had a density of 417 persons per sq km,
followed by the southern region (397), western region
(344), and northern region (267).

Growth Trends: The central, northern, and eastern regions saw faster growth in
population density compared to the western, North Eastern, and southern regions.

Factors Influencing Population Density/Distribution:

1. Physical Factors:
a. Terrain: Plains support higher population densities than mountainous areas.
The Himalayas cover 13% of India's land but only support 1-2% of its population,
while the North Indian plains, covering less than a quarter of the land, house
more than half the population.
b. Climate: Population density correlates with rainfall patterns. As rainfall
decreases from the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta to the Thar Desert, population
density also decreases. Exceptions include the north-western regions with high
density due to developed irrigation.
c. Soil: Fertile soils in the northern plains and coastal areas support high
population densities, while deserts and mountains with infertile soils have lower
densities.
d. Water Bodies: Proximity to rivers, essential for irrigation, industry, and
transport, leads to higher population densities, especially in river valleys.
2. Economic Factors:

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 a. Mineral Resources: Areas rich in minerals, like the Chota Nagpur plateau,
have higher population densities due to mining activities.
b. Industries: Industrial growth attracts people, increasing population density in
states like West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
c. Urbanization: Cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, and Chennai
have high population densities due to industrial development and urbanization,
drawing rural migrants.
3. Political Factors:
a. Migration Due to Unrest: People move away from regions with social or
political unrest, leading to changes in population distribution, as seen with
refugees from Bangladesh and Myanmar in the North East.
b. Government Policies: Government initiatives can influence population
distribution, such as the settlement of the Bru/Reang tribes in Tripura under the
"four-corner agreement" that granted them permanent resident status.

India as the Most Populous Country

India is now the world's most populous country with 142.86 crore people. China has a
population of 142.57 crore.

Factors Contributing to India's Population Surge:

● Decreased Mortality Rates: The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has dropped from
40.7 per 1,000 live births in 2015-16 to 35.3 in 2019-21, contributing to population
growth.
● Rising Life Expectancy: Life expectancy at birth has increased significantly,
reaching 69.7 years during the 2015-19 period, up from 31 years in 1947.
● High Incidence of Unintended Pregnancies: India accounts for 1 in every 7
unintended pregnancies globally, further driving population growth.
● Socio-Cultural Factors: Factors
such as lack of female education, prevalence
of child marriages, and early marriages
continue to fuel population expansion.

Implications of India Being

the Most Populous Country
1. Positive Implications:
a. Economic Growth:
i. Young Workforce: With
a large and youthful population, India has a
strong labor force that can drive economic
growth. This demographic advantage has
helped India become the world's
fifth-largest economy, overtaking Britain.
ii. Increased Demand:
The large population creates high demand
for goods and services, fostering innovation and attracting investments.
This demand-driven growth supports economic expansion and
technological advancement.
b. Inward Remittances: The Indian diaspora sends substantial remittances back
home, with $89 billion received in FY 2021-22. This boosts India's foreign
exchange reserves and supports the economy.

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 c. Infrastructure Development: A growing population leads to rapid
urbanization, driving infrastructure development and economic growth. This
creates new markets and attracts investment, essential for sustained progress.
d. Global Influence: A larger population increases India's influence on global
platforms, such as strengthening its case for a permanent seat on the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC).
e. Cultural Vibrancy: India’s large and diverse population contributes to cultural
richness, fostering a dynamic and innovative society that is a global cultural hub.
2. Negative Implications:
a. Limited Resources: India has only 2.45% of the world's land and 4% of its
water, leading to high pressure on these limited resources.
b. Health Risks: Rapid urbanization and human encroachment into natural
habitats increase the risk of pandemics.
c. Rising Tensions: Increased competition for limited resources can lead to
conflicts and social unrest.
d. Lower Quality of Life: Insufficient public spending on health and education
can lead to a decline in social indicators like literacy and life expectancy.
e. Economic Struggles: A large population with low skills can strain the
economy, leading to unemployment and slower growth.
f. Widening Gender Gap: Reduced investment in health and education may
disproportionately affect women, worsening gender inequality.

Way Forward:
1. Family Planning: Ensure access to safe and effective family planning options,
allowing individuals the freedom to make informed reproductive choices.
2. Focus on Girls’ Education: Prioritize education, especially for girls, to build human
capital and positively influence demographic trends like fertility and health.
3. Inclusive Growth: Strengthen democratic institutions to promote equity and ensure
that all sections of society benefit from economic growth.
4. Workforce Balance: Encourage migration to match workforce supply with demand
across regions.
5. Environmental Adaptation: Invest in green technologies and social innovations to
address and mitigate environmental and climate challenges.
6. Geriatric Care: Improve care for the elderly through better health insurance,
pension systems, and other support services.

Components of Population Change in India

The main components of population change are births, deaths, and migration.

Fertility
The fertility rate measures the number of live births per 1000 women aged 15 to 49.

Fertility Rate: Average number of children a woman has in her lifetime.

Data:
● NFHS-5 (2019-21):
○ According to NFHS-5, India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 2.0 children per
woman, which is a decline from 2.2 in NFHS-4 (2015-16).
○ The TFR is at 1.6 in urban areas and 2.1 in rural India.

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 ○ Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Manipur remain the only states
with fertility rates above the replacement level and the national average.
● According to a recent Lancet study, the fertility rate in India may dip to 1.29 by 2050,
which will be far lower than the replacement rate of 2.1
● Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
○ Represents the average number of children a woman would hypothetically have
in her lifetime if she were to experience the current age-specific fertility rates
(fertility rates at each age) throughout her entire childbearing years.
○ A TFR of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement rate, meaning a population
would maintain itself without migration.

Declining Fertility in India

1. Socio-economic Factors:
a. Education, Especially for Women: Higher education levels, especially
among women, lead to lower fertility rates as women delay marriage and
childbirth to pursue careers. For example, Kerala, with 92.1% female literacy, has
a TFR of 1.8, below the national replacement level.
b. Better Healthcare and Child Survival: Improved child survival rates reduce
the need for larger families, as seen with India's drop in under-five mortality
from 127 per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 37 per 1,000 in 2020.
c. Urbanization and High Living Costs: Urban areas are expensive, and the
high costs of raising children lead to smaller family sizes. For instance, urbanized
Maharashtra has a TFR of 1.4, compared to Bihar's 3.0.
2. Socio-cultural Factors:
a. Shifting Gender Roles and Women’s Empowerment: With more
education and job opportunities, women are challenging traditional roles, often
prioritizing careers over starting a family.
b. Nuclear Families: The decline of joint families and the rise of nuclear families
reduce the support for childcare, leading to fewer children per couple.
3. Behavioral Changes:
a. Government Campaigns and Contraceptive Use: Initiatives like "Hum Do
Humare Do" and the widespread use of contraceptives have contributed to the
societal shift toward smaller families.

Significance of Declining Fertility Rates in India

1. Boost to Economic Growth: Lower population growth increases per capita access
to resources and infrastructure, leading to a more skilled workforce and improved
labor productivity, driving faster economic growth.
2. Better Employment Conditions: A smaller workforce can lead to improved
working conditions, higher wages, and reduced wage discrimination, especially
benefiting migrant workers in states with low fertility rates like Maharashtra and
Gujarat.
3. Increased Female Workforce Participation: Lower fertility rates reduce the time
needed for childcare, enabling more women to join the workforce. For example, there's
a higher share of women employed under MNREGA in Southern States.
4. Improved Social Services: With fewer people, resources for education, healthcare,
and skills development are more abundant per capita, enhancing the quality of social
services like schools, colleges, and hospitals.
5. Reduced Environmental Pressure: A smaller population eases the strain on the
environment, mitigating issues like global warming, desertification, pollution, and the
depletion of non-renewable resources.

Concerns with Declining Fertility Rates Below Replacement

Levels

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 1. Demographic Challenges: Fertility rates below the replacement level (TFR 2.1) lead
to an ageing population, creating demographic issues similar to those faced by China.
2. Rising Non-Developmental Expenditure: An ageing population with low fertility
rates increases government spending on pensions and subsidies, straining the
economy.
3. Labor Shortages and Economic Risks: A shrinking working-age population
threatens economic stability, as seen in Japan’s economic downturn due to labor force
decline.
4. Reduced Innovation Potential: Fewer young people result in a smaller pool of
potential entrepreneurs and innovators, slowing technological advancement.
5. Social Imbalances: Falling fertility rates can worsen gender imbalances due to a
preference for male children, leading to skewed sex ratios and reinforcing
son-preference.

Way Forward:
1. Empower Women and Improve Education: Enhance women's access to
education and reproductive healthcare to support informed family planning and
population stabilization.
2. Implement Family Support Systems: Adopt Scandinavian-style family support
measures, including affordable childcare, healthcare, and gender equity initiatives.
3. Revise Economic Strategies: Modify economic policies to address the impact of
declining fertility, focusing on growth, job creation, and social security reforms.
4. Facilitate Ethical Migration: Develop policies to support ethical and effective
inter-state migration, addressing regional disparities due to varying fertility rates.

Differences in Fertility Rates Between North and South India

Due to varying fertility and migration rates, India faces the unique challenge of being both a
young and ageing country simultaneously, reflecting a demographic divide.

Regional Challenges: Northern states struggle with poor health and low literacy, while
southern states like Kerala face challenges in caring for an ageing population. This duality
makes setting national policy priorities difficult.

Reasons for Population Stabilization in Southern vs. Northern India

1. Higher Literacy in the South: Better education, especially among women, leads to
greater awareness of family planning and reproductive health.
2. Better Healthcare Access: Southern states have superior healthcare facilities and
easier access to contraceptives, resulting in lower fertility rates.
3. Economic Development: Greater economic opportunities in the south reduce the
need for larger families for economic security.
4. Cultural Differences: Southern societies are more accepting of smaller families,
while early marriage and higher fertility are more common in the north.
5. Effective Government Policies: Southern states have been more successful in
implementing population control measures.

Migration
Migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another, with the intention of
settling, either permanently or temporarily, in a new location.

Data:
● The latest government data on migration comes from the 2011 Census.

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 ○ India had 45.6 crore
migrants in 2011 (38% of the
population).
○ 99% of total migration was
internal, and immigrants
(international migrants)
comprised 1%.
○ There were 21 crore
rural-rural migrants, which
formed 54% of classifiable
internal migration.
○ Intra-state movement
accounted for almost 88% of all internal migration.
○ Uttar Pradesh and Bihar were the largest sources of inter-state migrants, while
Maharashtra and Delhi were the largest receiver states.
○ Majority (70%) of
intra-state migration
was due to reasons of
marriage and family.
● Migration in India
Report 2020-21:
○ The Ministry of
Statistics and Program
Implementation's
report in June 2022
compiled data for
temporary visitors and
migrants, around
0.7% of the population
was recorded as
temporary visitors
from July 2020 to
June 2021.
○ The all-India
migration rate was
28.9% for the same
period, with rates of
26.5% in rural and
34.9% in urban areas.
○ The female migration
rate stood at 47.9%,
with 48% in rural and
47.8% in urban areas
and the male
migration rate was 10.7%, with 5.9% in rural and 22.5% in urban areas.
○ 86.8% of female migrants migrated for marriage, while 49.6% of male migrants
moved in search of employment.
● In 1970, there were just 84 million international migrants, which translated to 2.3% of
the world’s population. In mid-2020 nearly 280 million people lived in a country other
than their country of birth, constituting 3.6% of the world’s population.
● India is the origin of the largest number of international migrants – around 18 million,
with large diasporas living in UAE, US and Saudi Arabia.
● World Migration Report 2024 stated that India received over USD 111 billion in
remittances in 2022, the largest in the world.

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Forms and Patterns of Migration
1. Internal Migration: Movement within a country, categorized by origin and
destination (e.g., rural-urban, intra-state, inter-state).
a. Internal Migration Patterns:
i. Rural-Urban Migration: Major cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore,
and Hyderabad see significant inflows from rural areas.
ii. Rural-Rural Migration: 54% of internal migration; 21 crore people
(2011 Census).
iii. Migration Rates: Urban areas have a higher migration rate (34.9%) than
rural areas (26.5%).
iv. Gender Trends: Higher female migration (47.9%) versus males (10.7%).
● Reasons: Marriage (86.8% of female migrants), increased female
workforce (e.g., Kerala’s healthcare sector).
v. Inter-State Migration: States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are major
sources, while Maharashtra, Delhi, and Gujarat are key destinations, driven
by economic disparities.
2. External Migration: Movement across national borders, driven by factors like
economic opportunities, education, family reunification, or seeking asylum. Examples:
Indian IT professionals in the US, construction workers in GCC nations, Rohingya
refugees in Bangladesh.
3. Forced Migration: Involuntary movement due to war, persecution, or natural
disasters.
4. Voluntary Migration: Relocation by choice, often for better economic prospects or
quality of life.
5. Temporary vs. Permanent Migration:
a. Temporary Migration: Short-term, such as seasonal work.
b. Permanent Migration: Long-term settlement in a new location.
6. Reverse Migration: Return to the original place of residence after previous
migration.

Causes of Migration
1. Push Factors:
a. Economic Push Factors:
i. Low agricultural income, unemployment, and underemployment in rural
areas.
ii. Adverse economic conditions like poverty, low productivity, and depletion
of natural resources.
iii. High urban unemployment and underemployment can also act as
deterrents to further migration.
b. Socio-Cultural Push Factors:
i. Caste-based discrimination, marginalization, and violence.
ii. Religious persecution or discrimination.
c. Political Push Factors:
i. Political instability, conflicts, wars, and persecution based on religion,
ethnicity, or political views.
ii. Separatist movements or ethnic conflicts causing people to flee violence or
persecution.
iii. Displacement due to government policies or administrative actions, such as
'sons of the soil' policies.
d. Environmental Push Factors:
i. Natural disasters like droughts, floods, and landslides leading to
displacement.
ii. Climate change impacts, including rising sea levels and extreme weather
events, causing loss of homes and livelihoods.

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 iii.Deforestation, land degradation, and water scarcity forcing people to
migrate.
iv. Displacement due to large-scale development projects like dams, mines,
and industrial projects.
2. Pull Factors:
a. Economic Pull Factors:
i. Better job opportunities, higher wages, improved working conditions, and
access to better amenities.
ii. Employment is a significant pull factor, accounting for 10.8% of all
migrations (PLFS 2020-21).
b. Socio-Cultural Pull Factors:
i. Desire for family reunification, marriage, or to be closer to one's
community or social network.
ii. Cultural factors such as preserving cultural identity or proximity to cultural
communities.

Impact of Migration
1. Positive Impact:
a. Economic Benefits:
i. Remittances: Migrants send money back home, enhancing financial
security for rural families, enabling investments in education and
healthcare, and reducing poverty.
ii. Labor Availability: Migrants boost labor supply and productivity in
destination areas, contributing significantly to the local economy.
iii. Foreign Exchange: International remittances are a major source of
foreign currency for the country.
b. Demographic Benefits:
i. Population Redistribution: Migration redistributes the population,
which can help balance demographic pressures within the country.
c. Social Benefits:
i. Agents of Change: Migrants bring new ideas and practices, such as
technology, family planning, and education, from urban to rural areas,
fostering social change.
ii. Cultural Intermixing: Migration promotes cultural diversity and the
evolution of a composite culture.
2. Negative Impact:
a. Economic Challenges:
i. Overcrowding and Slums: Unregulated migration to cities leads to
overcrowding, strain on infrastructure, and the growth of slums.
b. Demographic Challenges:
i. Rural Impact: Age and skill-selective migration can negatively affect
rural demographics, leading to issues like the feminization of agriculture
due to the out-migration of men.
c. Social Challenges:
i. Dejection and Isolation: Migrants may experience a sense of isolation,
dejection, and difficulty integrating into new communities.
d. Environmental Challenges:
i. Biodiversity Loss and Deforestation: Migration can lead to land
clearing for agriculture, overuse of natural resources, and the introduction
of invasive species, resulting in environmental degradation.
ii. Water Scarcity: Increased pressure on water resources due to migration
can lead to overuse, pollution, and heightened scarcity.

Challenges Encountered by Internal Migrants

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 1. Vulnerable Employment: Migrants often endure low wages, often below minimum
wage standards, and face high job insecurity due to informal employment. According
to the Centre for Sustainable Employment (2021), nearly 60% of India's migrant
workforce (excluding agriculture) falls into the "occupationally vulnerable" category.
2. Insufficient Social Security: Internal migrants frequently struggle to access
essential services like healthcare, education, and social welfare benefits, unlike
permanent residents. A 2020 survey by the Stranded Workers Action Network found
that over 70% of migrant children lacked access to adequate education facilities near
their temporary work sites.
3. Poor Housing and Sanitation: Many internal migrants are forced to live in urban
slums with inadequate infrastructure and sanitation. The World Bank (2023) reports
that nearly 60% of India's urban slum dwellers are internal migrants.
4. Voting Rights Disenfranchisement: Interstate migrants often face significant
obstacles in exercising their voting rights due to registration requirements linked to
local constituencies. According to a 2019 report by the Association for Democratic
Reforms, only 25% of internal migrants are registered to vote in their new locations.

Government Measures for Migrant Welfare

1. Social Security Measures:
a. Code on Social Security: Provides benefits like insurance and provident fund
for inter-state migrant workers.
2. Food Security:
a. One Nation-One Ration Card: Allows beneficiaries under the Public
Distribution System (PDS) to access rations from any Fair Price Shop (FPS)
across the country, providing flexibility and choice.
3. Policy Initiatives:
a. Draft National Policy on Migrant Workers: Developed by NITI Aayog, this
policy adopts a rights-based approach and emphasizes collective action to
improve conditions for migrants.
4. Electoral Participation:
a. Remote Voting: The Election Commission plans to test a Multi-Constituency
Remote Electronic Voting Machine (RVM) to enable domestic migrants to vote
from their remote locations for their home constituencies.
5. Rural Infrastructure Development:
a. RURBAN Mission: Aims to boost local economic development, improve basic
services, and create well-planned Rurban clusters to reduce the rural-urban
divide.
b. PURA (Providing Urban Amenities to Rural Areas): Focuses on reducing
migration by developing technology, improving connectivity, and enhancing
livelihood opportunities in rural areas.
c. Smart Villages Initiative: Promotes holistic rural development by providing
basic amenities like sanitation, safe drinking water, internal roads, tree
plantation, and water conservation, with an emphasis on sustainable
development.

Way Forward
1. Comprehensive Social Security: Guarantee access to housing, healthcare,
education, and employment for migrants, regardless of their status. Utilize schemes
like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) for housing and One Nation One Ration
Card for food security.
2. Integration and Inclusion: Foster social cohesion by promoting the integration of
migrants into society, reducing discrimination and xenophobia.
3. Skill Development and Job Creation: Invest in rural skill development initiatives
to enhance employability and create job opportunities in villages, reducing the need for

15
 migration. Schemes like Skill India Mission and Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana
can empower migrants.
4. Counter Magnet Cities: Develop infrastructure and economic opportunities in
regional cities to promote balanced regional development. This reduces pressure on
major urban centers by offering employment, affordable housing, quality education,
healthcare, and a better standard of living.
5. Labour Market Policies: Create policies that protect migrant workers' rights,
including fair wages, safe working conditions, and access to social security benefits.
6. Regulation and Worker Protection: Strictly enforce labor laws to prevent
exploitation of migrant workers, ensuring fair wages, safe working environments, and
effective grievance redressal mechanisms.

International Migration
India is the origin of the largest number of international migrants – around 18 million.
● According to the World Migration Report, 2024, by the UN's International
Organization for Migration (IOM): "In 2022, India, Mexico, and China were the top
three remittance recipient countries, followed by the Philippines, France and
Pakistan."
● In 2022, India received $111 billion, the first country to reach and even surpass the
$100 bn mark.

Patterns of International Migration:

● Top Destinations:
○ The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Countries like the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) remain popular destinations for Indian workers (3.4 million in 2020),
particularly in construction, hospitality, and domestic work.
○ Western Countries: The US (2.7 million in 2020), Canada, Australia, and the UK
continue to attract a steady flow of skilled professionals, mainly in IT, healthcare,
and education sectors.

Impacts of International Migration:

1. Social Impact
a. Empowerment of Women: Migration can empower women who stay behind
by providing them with financial independence through remittances, enabling
them to make decisions about their lives and children's education.
b. Exposure to New Ideas: Migrants gain exposure to new cultures and ideas,
which can broaden their perspectives and lead to positive changes when they
return home.
2. Economic Impact
a. Remittances: Indian expatriates send significant amounts of money back
home, with $83.15 billion in remittances in 2020, supporting many families.
b. Investment and Economic Growth: Skilled Indian migrants often invest
their savings in India, creating jobs, stimulating the economy, and promoting
growth.
c. Boost to Domestic Consumption: Remittances increase disposable income
in Indian households, driving local businesses and industries.
3. Brain Drain vs. Brain Gain
a. Skill Gap: Emigration of skilled professionals can create workforce gaps,
affecting industries like healthcare.
b. Knowledge Transfer: Migrants exposed to new technologies and ideas abroad
can bring back innovation and productivity to India.

16
 c. Returning Skills: Returning migrants bring valuable skills, fill skill gaps,
mentor younger generations, and start new businesses, boosting economic
growth.

Challenges Faced by International Migrants:

1. Wage Exploitation: Migrants in low-skilled jobs often face exploitation, including
wage theft, passport confiscation, and unsafe working conditions. In 2022, Indian
workers in Qatar protested unpaid wages during the construction for the FIFA World
Cup.
2. Social and Cultural Integration: Adapting to new cultures and languages can lead
to feelings of isolation, loneliness, and health issues.
3. Anti-Globalization Backlash: Rising anti-globalization sentiments have led to
increased hate crimes against the Indian diaspora.
4. Family Separation: Migrants struggle with emotional strain from being separated
from their families, despite technological advances that allow for communication.
5. Challenges on Return: Returning migrants may face difficulties re-integrating into
the Indian job market, with their skills and qualifications often unrecognized, leading
to unemployment or underemployment.

Need for Multi-Sectoral Intervention: Migration impacts various sectors, requiring

coordinated efforts by different ministries to facilitate migration and ensure the integration
of migrants into the country’s economic, social, political, and cultural life.

Population Composition in India

Present Status of Age Structure:
● High Proportion of Working Age Adults: As of 2022, approximately 67.8% of the
population falls under the 15-64 age group, considered the prime working age. This
translates to a large workforce potential.
● Declining Child Population: The share of children below 14 years has been steadily
decreasing. From a peak of 42% in 1971, it reached 25.3% in 2022. This trend is likely
to continue.
● Growing Elderly Population: While still a small segment, the population above 65
years is gradually increasing. In 2022, it stood at 6.9%, and this number is expected to
rise in the coming decades.
● From 941 in 1961 the sex ratio in India had fallen to an all-time low of 927 in 1991.
However, as per the National Family Health Survey 5 report, the sex ratio in India
stands at 1020 which is a major improvement from the past.
○ The NFHS-5 figures have also shown that the sex ratio at birth improved from
919 in 2015-16 to 929 in 2019-20.

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The population pyramid (The age-sex pyramid):
The age-sex structure of a population refers to the number of females and males in different
age groups. A population pyramid is used to show the age-sex structure of the population.
The shape of the population pyramid reflects the characteristics of the population. The left
side shows the percentage of males while the right side shows the percentage of women in
each age group.

Regional variations in age-structure pyramid:

● Like fertility rates, the age structure also differs significantly across regions in India.
For instance, Kerala is moving towards an age structure similar to developed countries,
having a larger population of older people.
● On the other hand, Uttar Pradesh shows a different picture, with more people in
younger age groups and fewer in older age groups.
● India falls somewhere in between because it comprises states with various age
structures, like Uttar Pradesh and Kerala.

Sex Ratio
As per the National Family Health Survey 5 report, the sex ratio in India stands at 1020
which is a major improvement from the past.

18
 ● The NFHS-5 figures have also shown that the sex ratio at birth improved from 919 in
2015-16 to 929 in 2019-20.

Factors Contributing to Skewed Sex Ratio in India

1. Pre-Natal Sex Determination: One of the primary factors contributing to the
skewed sex ratio in India is the widespread practice of pre-natal sex determination,
leading to selective female foeticide.
2. Patriarchal Bias and Gender Discrimination: In many regions, deeply ingrained
patriarchal norms foster a strong preference for male children, resulting in systemic
discrimination against girls.
3. Devaluation of Women's Work and Limited Autonomy: The societal
undervaluation of women's labor, coupled with their limited decision-making power,
further exacerbates gender imbalances.
4. Dowry System: The dowry system remains a significant factor driving the preference
for male children, contributing to the declining sex ratio.
5. Poverty and Lack of Education: Extreme poverty and inadequate access to
education are key factors in the low status of women in society, indirectly influencing
the preference for male offspring.
6. Infant and Maternal Mortality: High rates of infant mortality, especially among
female infants due to neglect and foeticide, along with maternal mortality during
childbirth, significantly impact the sex ratio.
7. Lack of Women's Empowerment: Particularly in rural areas, the lack of
empowerment and opportunities for women, compounded by limited educational
access, hampers their dogged participation in social, economic, and political spheres.
8. Low Social Status of Women: The low social status of women, often regarded
merely as financial burdens due to dowry expectations, leads to a preference for male
children, especially in economically disadvantaged families.

Government’s Initiatives:
1. Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao: This is one of the important campaigns introduced by
the government to generate awareness and improve the efficiency of the welfare
services meant for women.
2. Sukanya Samriddhi Account: This scheme was notified by the Ministry of Finance
in December, 2014. The initiative aims at opening a new account for the girl child.
3. The Girl Child Protection Scheme: The scheme is aimed at preventing gender
discrimination by protecting the rights of the girl child. It also tries to eliminate the
negative attitudes and practices against the girl child.
4. Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse)
Bill (introduced in Parliament in 1991, passed in 1994 to stop female infanticide and
many more such Acts.

Population Policies in India

Population Control Measures in India Since

Independence
1. First Five-Year Plan (1951-1956):
○ India became the first developing country to initiate a state-sponsored family
planning program.
○ Emphasized natural methods for family planning.
2. Second Five-Year Plan (1956-1961):
○ Significant increase in the number of family planning clinics.
○ Predominantly urban focus, resulting in limited success in rural areas.

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 3. Third Five-Year Plan (1961-1966):
○ Introduction of the copper-T intrauterine device (IUD) as a contraceptive
measure.
○ Establishment of an independent Family Planning Department.
4. Fourth Five-Year Plan (1969-1974):
○ Promotion of both conventional and modern birth control methods.
5. Fifth Five-Year Plan (1974-1979):
○ Announcement of the National Population Policy in 1976.
○ Key measures included:
■ Raising the minimum legal age of marriage to 18 for girls and 21 for boys.
■ Enhancing female literacy levels.
■ Popularizing family welfare programs through extensive media campaigns.
■ Introduction of forced sterilization, which was later abandoned due to
widespread criticism.
6. Sixth, Seventh, and Eighth Five-Year Plans (1980-1997):
○ Focus on achieving long-term demographic objectives to control population
growth.
7. Ninth Five-Year Plan (1997-2002):
○ In 1993, the government established an expert group under the chairmanship of
M.S. Swaminathan to formulate a National Population Policy.
○ In 1997, the family planning program was rebranded as the ‘Family Welfare
Programme’ to emphasize broader welfare objectives beyond mere population
control.

National Population Policy 2000

The National Population Policy 2000 represents a significant shift in addressing
population-related challenges in India.

● The policy moves beyond merely reducing birth rates, focusing instead on a
comprehensive strategy that emphasizes women's empowerment, improved healthcare
services, and responsible parenthood.

● Stabilizing the population is recognized as a fundamental requirement for promoting

sustainable development in the country.

Key Objectives:
1. Immediate Objective: To meet the unmet needs for contraception, strengthen
healthcare infrastructure, and ensure the availability of skilled health personnel. It also
aims to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care.
2. Medium-Term Objective: To reduce the total fertility rate (TFR) to replacement
levels by 2010 through the implementation of robust, inter-sectoral strategies.
3. Long-Term Objective: To achieve a stable population by 2045, in alignment with
sustainable economic growth, social development, and environmental protection goals.

Key features:
1. Promoting Voluntary and Informed Choices: The NPP emphasizes the
government's vision to encourage voluntary and informed decision-making among
citizens to maximize the benefits of reproductive health services.
2. Free and Compulsory Education: The policy advocates for free and compulsory
education up to the age of 14 years, with a focus on reducing dropout rates among both
boys and girls.

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 3. Reduction of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): Aiming to lower the IMR to below 30
per 1,000 live births, with a target year of 2010 set when the policy was introduced.
4. Reduction of Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR): The policy seeks to reduce the
MMR to below 100 per 1 lakh live births, also targeting 2010 for this achievement.
5. Universal Immunization: Achieving universal immunization for all children
against vaccine-preventable diseases.
6. Encouraging Delayed Marriage for Girls: The policy promotes delayed marriage,
advocating for girls to marry preferably after 18 years, with encouragement for
marriages to occur above 20 years.
7. Institutional Deliveries: Setting a target of achieving 80% institutional deliveries
and ensuring that 100% of deliveries are attended by trained personnel.
8. 100% Registration: The NPP aims for complete registration of pregnancies, births,
deaths, and marriages across the country.
9. Access to Fertility Regulation and Contraception: Ensuring universal access to
information, counseling, and services related to fertility regulation and contraception,
offering a wide range of choices to citizens.
10. AIDS Prevention and Control: The policy focuses on containing the spread of
AIDS and improving coordination between the management of reproductive tract
infections (RTI), sexually transmitted infections (STI), and the National AIDS Control
Organisation (NACO).
11. Control of Communicable Diseases: The NPP prioritizes the prevention and
control of communicable diseases.
12. Integration of Indian Medicine Systems: Integrating the Indian systems of
medicine (AYUSH) into reproductive and child health services.
13. Promotion of the Small Family Norm: The policy actively promotes the norm of
small families as a means of population control.

Challenges with the population control policies

Excessive population growth can strain the state's capacity to govern effectively. However,
current population control approaches may lead to unintended consequences, making
governance more complex:
1. Anti-Poor Bias: The current approach disproportionately affects the poor, who tend
to have more children compared to middle-class families. This highlights a potential
socio-economic bias in population control measures.
2. Violation of Democratic Rights: Population control measures can infringe on
citizens' democratic rights, particularly their sexual and reproductive rights, by limiting
their freedom of choice.
3. Socio-Economic Determinants: High fertility rates are often linked to
socio-economic challenges such as high infant and child mortality. Policies that do not
address these underlying issues may be ineffective in achieving sustainable population
control.
4. Current Fertility Trends: India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is approaching the net
replacement rate (NRR) of 2.1-2.2. Data from the National Family Health Survey
(NFHS) and Census indicate that many states and urban areas have already achieved
replacement-level fertility, reducing the need for stringent population control
measures.
5. Risks of the Two-Child Policy: The enforcement of a two-child policy could
exacerbate gender-based violence, such as female infanticide, particularly in families
with a strong preference for male children. This is especially concerning given the

21
 existing gender imbalances, as seen in the 2011 Census where Uttar Pradesh had only
908 females per 1,000 males, below the national average of 940 females.
6. The Need for a New Approach: India's current National Population Policy (NPP
2000) requires revision to align with changing demographic realities. While the
original policy focused on family planning and reducing maternal mortality, the
demographic landscape has evolved.
a. Navigating Demographic Changes: India is experiencing a demographic
transition, with its young population offering a limited window for growth,
expected to peak by 2041. However, the growing population places pressure on
resources, and the decline in fertility rates is leading to a rapidly aging
population, projected to reach 12% by 2025.
7. Contradiction with Human Rights: The use of incentives and disincentives in
population control has been criticized by the National Human Rights Commission
(NHRC), especially following the introduction of such measures in various states
during the 1990s and 2000s, including Haryana, undivided Andhra Pradesh, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha.
8. Global Lessons: International examples of strict population control policies, such as
China's one-child policy, have shown long-term inefficacy and significant negative
consequences, including a skewed sex ratio due to a preference for male children.

Way Forward
1. Empowering Women: Women's education is crucial for lowering fertility rates and
delaying childbirth. Investing in women's education is essential for India's overall
development.
2. Adhering to the Cairo Consensus: The Cairo International Conference on
Population and Development (ICPD) in 1994 emphasized a holistic approach to
population issues.
a. The Cairo Consensus advocates for promoting reproductive rights, empowering
women, ensuring universal education, and improving maternal and infant health
to address the intertwined issues of poverty and high fertility rates.
b. It also calls for increasing the prevalence of modern contraceptive methods,
including male contraception.
3. Strengthening Socio-Economic Foundations: To achieve a lower and stable
fertility rate, states must first strengthen medical infrastructure and address
socio-economic challenges. The experience of India's southern states demonstrates
that economic development, coupled with a strong focus on education, healthcare, and
women's empowerment, is more effective in encouraging smaller family sizes than
punitive population control measures.
4. Encouraging Informed Choices: Policies should empower both men and women
to make informed decisions about their fertility and health.
a. Comprehensive Sex Education: Implement sex education in schools to help
young people make responsible choices about their sexual and reproductive
health.
b. Expand Healthcare Access: Increase access to healthcare and family
planning services to support informed decisions.
5. Correcting Skewed Sex Ratios: Future policies must address skewed sex ratios by
combating discriminatory practices, such as lack of women’s property rights, which
reinforce son preference.

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 6. Leveraging Demographic Dividend: India’s demographic advantage can drive
economic growth. Policymakers should focus on using this opportunity to boost
economic progress rather than seeing it as a challenge.
a. Invest in Education and Skills: Prioritize education and skill development to
ensure a productive workforce for the future.
7. Caring for the Elderly: Strengthen institutional and state capacity to care for the
aging population, including creating better systems for elderly protection.
a. Senior Care and Geriatric Training: Establish more senior care centers and
train professionals in geriatric care.
b. Social Security and Pensions: Implement social security schemes and
pension plans to ensure financial stability and quality of life for the elderly.
8. Targeted Focus on High Fertility Regions: Directing additional resources
towards education, skill development, and job creation in states with higher fertility
rates, such as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
9. Promoting Sustainable Development: The revised policy should shift focus from
mere population control to promoting small family norms through economic growth
and overall development.

Two-Child Norm for Population Control

The two-child policy aims to curb rapid population growth by limiting fertility rates,
encouraging families to have no more than two children by denying social and economic
benefits to those who exceed this limit.
States like Assam, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan have implemented this
norm, restricting government jobs to individuals with two or fewer children.

Arguments Against the Two-Child Norm:

1. Declining Fertility Rate: India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has already decreased
from 2.2 to 2.0 nationally. Only five states—Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh,
Jharkhand, and Manipur—remain above the replacement fertility level of 2.1.
2. Risk of Gender Imbalance: Coercive policies in a society with a strong preference
for male children may worsen the child-sex ratio.
3. Increase in Unsafe Abortions: In a patriarchal society, limiting families to two
children could increase pressure on women to have male children, leading to unsafe
abortions and a skewed sex ratio.
4. Challenges for the Elderly: The one-child policy in China led to an aging
population with too few working-age people and high costs for elderly care, serving as a
cautionary tale.
5. Disempowerment of Women: Denying jobs and benefits to women who do not
adhere to the two-child norm could disempower them, as they often lack control over
reproductive decisions.
6. Violation of Reproductive Rights: The Supreme Court, in the case of Suchita
Srivastava & Anr vs Chandigarh Administration (2009), affirmed that a
woman's right to reproductive decisions is part of the right to personal liberty under
Article 21 of the Indian Constitution.
7. Ineffectiveness of Coercive Methods: There is no evidence that coercive
population control measures are effective. States like Kerala have achieved population
stabilization through improved healthcare, not coercion.
8. Contradiction to Global Commitments: India is committed to international
obligations, including the 1994 International Conference on Population and

23
 Development Programme of Action, which opposes coercive population control
methods.

China's One-Child Policy

China's One-Child Policy, enforced from 1979 to 2015, was initially praised for curbing
population growth, but it also led to several unintended and harmful consequences:
1. Demographic Imbalance: The policy caused a severe gender imbalance, with
millions more men than women, disrupting marriage patterns and social stability. It
also accelerated population aging, putting immense pressure on social security and
healthcare systems due to fewer working-age individuals supporting the elderly.
2. Socioeconomic Challenges: The shrinking workforce led to labor shortages, which
hindered economic growth. Additionally, the "Little Emperor" syndrome emerged,
where single children, often overly indulged, developed attitudes of selfishness and
entitlement.
3. Ethical and Human Rights Issues: The enforcement of the policy through forced
sterilizations and abortions raised serious ethical concerns. These practices had
significant psychological impacts on parents who wanted larger families, highlighting
broader human rights and emotional challenges.

Challenges Associated with Population

1. Population Stabilization: Reducing the fertility rate is crucial for achieving
population stabilization. As per NFHS-5, five Indian states—Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar
Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Manipur—continue to have fertility rates above the
replacement level of 2.1.
2. Quality of Life Enhancement: To ensure a minimum standard of living for all
citizens, India must significantly invest in expanding its education and healthcare
systems, increasing food production, providing adequate housing, improving drinking
water supply, and enhancing basic infrastructure like roads, transport, electricity, and
sewage systems.
3. Heavy Financial Burden: Substantial expenditure is necessary to meet the basic
needs and strengthen the social infrastructure required to accommodate the growing
population. To fund these needs, India must generate resources through taxation and
other means. Even with fewer than five million individuals entering the workforce
annually, securing decent employment for them remains a challenging task.
4. Malthusian Concerns: According to Malthusian theory, population growth could
surpass food production, leading to widespread food shortages and consequent
mortality.
5. Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: To capitalize on its demographic
dividend, India needs to build a robust human capital base capable of driving economic
growth. However, the country's low literacy rate (approximately 74%) leaves a quarter
of the population without basic reading and writing skills, potentially turning this
demographic advantage into a burden.
6. Sustainable Urbanization: A UN report projects that by 2050, India’s urban
population will rise to 87.7 million, and the number of urban agglomerations with over
a million residents will double by 2035. This necessitates significant improvements in
urban infrastructure, particularly in affordable housing and transportation.
7. Population Aging: A report by the United Nations Population Fund and HelpAge
India indicates that by 2026, the number of elderly individuals in India will reach 173
million. The dual challenges of a growing population and an aging demographic will
exacerbate the need for jobs, education, healthcare, and geriatric care.

24
 8. Income Inequality: With population growth, unequal income distribution and rising
inequalities are likely outcomes. The World Inequality Report 2022 ranks India among
the most unequal countries globally, with the top 10% and top 1% of the population
holding 57% and 22% of the national income, respectively, while the bottom 50% share
has decreased to 13%.
9. Environmental Degradation: Overpopulation exerts immense pressure on land,
reducing the per capita availability of land. Population growth is also driving
environmental degradation, manifesting in pollution, biodiversity loss, and global
warming. Cities like Delhi are already experiencing the adverse effects of overcrowding,
particularly in terms of air pollution.

Social Capital
Robert Putnam, in his book "Bowling Alone," describes social capital as the networks, norms,
and trust within social organizations that promote cooperation for mutual benefit.

Networks and Relationships: Social capital is based on our connections with others,
including family, friends, colleagues, and even online communities.

Trust and Reciprocity: These connections are strengthened by mutual trust and the
exchange of favors or support.

Shared Values and Norms: Social capital is often characterized by shared values and
norms that guide behavior within the network.

Importance of Social Capital

1. Significance for Individuals: Social capital provides individuals with access to
resources, information, and opportunities, enhancing job prospects, education, and
health.
2. Impact on Society: It strengthens society by promoting cooperation, reducing crime,
and enhancing social institutions. It also boosts problem-solving and innovation.
3. Role in Economic Development: Social capital is essential for economic growth,
enabling trust-based transactions, reducing information gaps, and fostering
entrepreneurship. It also aids disadvantaged groups, particularly youth, in acquiring
skills and education for workforce participation.

Challenges to Social Capital Development in India

1. Erosion of Traditional Structures: The weakening of extended families and
close-knit neighborhoods leads to more fleeting social interactions, resulting in loss of
trust, weakened support systems, and a decreased sense of belonging.
2. Inequitable Distribution: Social capital is unevenly distributed, with marginalized
groups often lacking access to powerful networks and resources, perpetuating social
inequalities and limiting opportunities for the underprivileged.
3. Social Divisions: Divisions based on religion, ethnicity, or ideology create exclusive
"in-groups," hindering collaboration and trust across communities. For example,
political polarization can lead to people only engaging with those who share their
views, limiting exposure to diverse perspectives and potentially slowing broader
societal progress.

Ways to Enhance Social Capital in India

1. Strengthening Social Networks and Trust
a. Community Initiatives: Support resident welfare associations, self-help
groups, and local social clubs to foster connections and a sense of belonging.

25
 b. Civic Engagement: Promote volunteerism and community service to build
trust and collaboration on local issues.
c. Interfaith and Intercultural Dialogues: Encourage understanding and
respect among different religious and cultural groups to break down social
barriers.
2. Investing in Social Institutions
a. Empowering Local Governance: Strengthen local government bodies to be
more responsive to citizens, increasing trust and participation.
b. Media Literacy: Educate citizens on critically evaluating information to
combat misinformation and promote informed dialogue.
3. Promoting Social Mobility and Inclusion
a. Education for All: Invest in quality education, especially for girls and
marginalized communities, to empower individuals and promote social mobility.
b. Diversity and Inclusion: Encourage workplaces and public institutions to be
inclusive of diverse backgrounds to create a more cohesive society.
c. Bridging the Digital Divide: Ensure equitable access to technology and the
internet to empower participation in the digital economy.

Conclusion
Strong social capital can enhance India’s demographic dividend by fostering trust,
cooperation, and opportunities, leading to inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Demographic Dividend
Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund, is "the economic
growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the
share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the
population.

According to the Economic Survey 2018-19, India’s demographic dividend will peak around
2041, when the share of working-age, i.e. 20-59 years, the population is expected to hit 59%.

Significance of India’s demographic dividend:

1. Labor Force Expansion: A young population leads to an expanded labor force as
more individuals enter the working age, boosting the available workforce.
2. Enhancement in Capital Formation: With fewer dependents, people tend to save
more, leading to higher national savings rates. This surge in savings contributes to
increased capital stock and offers opportunities for investment, facilitating capital
formation in the country.
3. Economic Growth Stimulus: The rising GDP per capita, coupled with a declining
dependency ratio, drives domestic demand. This, in turn, fuels demand-driven
economic growth. Historical examples from advanced economies show that
demographic dividends have contributed up to 15% of total growth.
4. Innovation and Entrepreneurial Potential: A sizable youth population fosters
innovation and entrepreneurship, as younger individuals are generally more willing to
take risks and pioneer new ventures. For instance, India currently holds the position as
the third-largest startup ecosystem globally, following the USA and China.
5. Empowerment of Female Human Capital: Lower fertility rates contribute to
healthier women and reduce economic burdens at home, creating an opportunity to
increase female participation in the workforce and enhance overall human capital.

26
Challenges:
1. Insufficient Job Creation: The fast-growing population outpaces job creation, with
the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) at 41.6% in 2020-21.
2. Poor Education and Skills Mismatch: The education system fails to align with job
market needs, leading to a significant skills gap. For instance, 54% of final-year
students in 2018 were deemed unemployable.
3. Jobless Growth: Concerns about jobless growth arise due to factors like
deindustrialization and technological advancements. The LFPR for the 15-59 age group
was around 53% in 2017-18.
4. Health and Nutrition Deficits: Malnutrition and inadequate healthcare reduce
workforce productivity. India's Human Development Index (HDI) was 0.644 in 2022,
ranking 134th globally.
5. Infrastructure Gaps: Poor infrastructure in rural and semi-urban areas limits
industrial growth and job creation.
6. Social and Cultural Barriers: Patriarchal norms restrict women’s participation in
the workforce, with only 19% of Indian women participating in 2021.
7. Environmental Challenges: Rapid urbanization and industrial growth have
adversely affected environmental quality.

Way Forward:
1. Education and Skill Development:
a. Improve the quality and accessibility of education, especially for marginalized
groups.
b. Focus on vocational training aligned with industry needs to boost employability.
c. Promote digital literacy to prepare for a digital economy.
2. Employment Generation:
a. Create a business-friendly environment to attract investments and generate jobs.
b. Support entrepreneurship and startups.
c. Ensure social security for gig and platform workers, whose numbers are expected
to grow significantly.
3. Healthcare and Well-being:
a. Strengthen healthcare infrastructure to improve health outcomes and reduce
dependency.
b. Emphasize preventive healthcare and nutrition to tackle health disparities.
c. Promote mental health awareness and support.
4. Inclusive Growth and Gender Equality:
a. Implement policies that promote gender equality and women’s empowerment.
b. Focus on reducing inequalities and enhancing social cohesion.
c. Increase female workforce participation, which is crucial for future growth.
5. Infrastructure Development:
a. Invest in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure.
b. Improve urban planning to manage urbanization and migration.
c. Ensure sustainable infrastructure to support growth and improve living
standards.
6. Shift from Agriculture to Formal Sector:
a. Encourage a shift from agriculture to the formal sector to address disguised
employment.
b. Focus on increasing formal wage employment.
7. Policy and Governance:
a. Develop and implement policies that prioritize the demographic dividend.
b. Strengthen governance for effective execution of initiatives.
c. Foster collaboration between government, private sector, and civil society for
inclusive growth.

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India’s Ageing Population
Data:
● According to Census 2011, India has 104 million older people (60+years),
constituting 8.6% of total population.
○ Amongst the elderly (60+), females outnumber males.
● India Ageing Report 2023: The UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) India,
in collaboration with the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) has
unveiled the India Ageing Report 2023, highlighting the rapidly growing elderly
population in India.
○ Demographic Trends:
■ India's elderly population is growing rapidly, with a decadal growth rate of
41%.
■ By 2050, over 20% of India's population will be elderly.
■ The elderly population in India will surpass the population of children (0 to
15 years old) by 2046.
■ The population of people aged 80+ years is expected to increase by around
279% between 2022 and 2050.
○ Higher Life Expectancy of Women: Women have a higher life expectancy at
ages 60 and 80 compared to men, with variations across states and territories.
● A report released by the United Nations Population Fund and HelpAge India
suggests that the number of elderly persons is expected to grow to 173 million by 2026.

Significance:
1. GDP Growth Potential: According to ADB, India's GDP could rise by 1.5% if the
untapped work capacity of older people, known as the "silver dividend," is fully
utilized.
2. Elderly as a Resource: The National Policy on Older Persons (NPOP), 1999,
emphasizes that the elderly should be seen as a valuable resource for economic
development.
3. Experience and Wisdom: Older individuals possess significant personal and
professional experience. Society should harness this experience for the benefit of future
generations, providing stability and continuity.
4. Moral Values: Grandparents, especially in joint families, play a key role in passing on
moral values and ethics to the younger generation, contributing to the development of
responsible citizens.
5. Preparing for the Future: As India’s elderly population is expected to become the
largest segment by 2050, integrating them into the economy now will better prepare
the country for this demographic shift.

Problems Associated with the Ageing Population

1. Social Issues:
a. Erosion of Traditional Values: Rapid changes due to industrialization,
urbanization, and globalization are weakening traditional family bonds, leading
to weaker intergenerational ties.
b. Feminization of Old Age: Women increasingly outlive men in India, leading
to specific challenges:
i. Caregiver Burden: Elderly women often take on caregiving roles,
neglecting their own health.
ii. Widowhood: Many elderly women face social isolation and emotional
distress after losing their spouses.

28
 iii. Property Rights: Despite legal protections, elderly women often struggle
to claim their property rights, leading to economic and social
disadvantages.
iv. Neglect of Women's Health: Older women often receive inadequate
healthcare, particularly in chronic disease management and preventive
care.
c. Neglect by Children: Elderly parents often face neglect from their children.
d. Post-Retirement Disillusionment: Retirement can lead to feelings of
powerlessness, loneliness, and uselessness.
2. Financial Issues:
a. Economic Dependency: A survey by HelpAge India found that 47% of elderly
are financially dependent on their families, while 34% rely on pensions. Many
express a desire to work as long as possible.
b. Rising Dependency Ratio: As the elderly population grows, the burden on the
working-age population increases, straining the economy.
c. Fiscal Stress: Providing healthcare, pensions, and social security to the aging
population requires significant public spending, leading to potential fiscal
deficits.
d. Impact of Migration: Young people migrating from rural areas leave elderly
behind, often leading to poverty and distress for those living alone.
3. Health Issues:
a. Depression: A significant percentage of the elderly, especially widows living
alone, suffer from depression, often linked to poverty, poor health, and
loneliness.
b. Common Health Problems: Blindness, locomotor disabilities, and deafness
are prevalent among the elderly.
c. Mental Health: Conditions like senility and neurosis, which cause chronic
distress without delusions or hallucinations, are common among the elderly.
d. Lack of Geriatric Care: There is a shortage of geriatric care facilities,
especially in rural areas.

Government Initiatives
1. Pradhan Mantri Vaya Vandana Yojana (PMVVY): A pension scheme exclusively
for senior citizens aged 60 and above, providing financial security.
2. Integrated Program for Older Persons (IPOP): Aims to enhance the quality of
life for senior citizens by providing essential services like food, shelter, medical care,
and entertainment.
3. Rashtriya Vayoshree Yojana: A central scheme funded by the Senior Citizens'
Welfare Fund, offering aids and assistive devices to BPL senior citizens with
age-related disabilities such as low vision, hearing loss, and locomotor disabilities.
4. SAMPANN Project: Launched in 2018, this online system ensures seamless pension
processing and direct payment to the bank accounts of Department of
Telecommunications pensioners.
5. SACRED Portal for Elderly: Allows citizens above 60 to register and find job
opportunities, helping them stay economically active.
6. SAGE (Seniorcare Ageing Growth Engine) Initiative: A "one-stop" platform
providing elderly care products and services from credible startups, supporting
entrepreneurship in elderly care services.

Way Forward
1. Recommendations from the India Ageing Report (2023):
a. Improve Data Collection: Enhance the quality of data on elderly issues by
including specific questions in surveys like the National Sample Survey, National
Family Health Survey, and Census of India for better policy decisions.

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 b. Increase Awareness and Regulation: Raise awareness about existing
schemes for the elderly, bring all Old Age Homes under regulatory control, and
promote elderly self-help groups.
c. Promote Multigenerational Living: Encourage policies that support elderly
people living in multigenerational households to enhance their well-being.
d. Facilitate In-Situ Ageing: Support aging at home by providing short-term
care facilities like day-care centers, as elderly individuals tend to receive better
care with their families.
2. Opportunity for Silver Dividend: As India focuses on its young population for the
Demographic Dividend, it is equally crucial to harness the potential of the elderly,
embracing the "Silver Dividend."

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