Globalization/ IR

Themes in Past Papers

• Moral standards in IR (2000)
• Future of UN: Hopes and Hurdles (2009)
• Failures of UN (2010)
• UN in 21st Century: Obligations and Limitations (2012)
• World as a Global Village (2015)
• Globalization and Electronic media (2007)
• Brexit and Globalization (2017)
• New war fronts lie in economic zones (2019)
• Global power dynamics and Pakistan’s foreign policy (2020)
• Pros and Cons of Globalization (2021)
• Global Politics and International Relations (2022)
• Globalization of Markets (2022)
 Globalization

• Movement of knowledge, trade (goods & services), capital, ideas,

culture, food, technology and people, facilitated by technology

• Globalization has benefited the world culturally, scientifically and

many people economically

• Globalization may have the power to eradicate poverty in 21st century

(UN)
 Globalization
• Globalization is thought as a Western Product
• However, globalization is not Global Westernization.
• Globalization is neither new nor necessarily Western and it is not a curse.
However, its benefits are not fairly shared which needs to be addressed.
• West pioneered Internet, biotechnology, science, tech and mathematics.
• However, it was thanks to development of decimal system in India during before 6th
century that the advances were possible.
• China developed paper, printing press, gunpowder and compass
• Al Khwarizmi invented algorithm and algebra
• Globalization is product of global heritage and as historic as humankind
• Thus resisting globalization of idea, science and technology as
Westernization is foolish and short sighted.
 Globalization

• World more interconnected than ever

• Trade as % of global economy: 2018➔30 % same as 2008

• FDI: 2018 $2.7 trillion higher than 2008

• Air Travel: $3 trillion to global GDP

• Globalization taking a pause not declining

 Globalization of Markets

• Global Supply Chains

• MNCs

• East Asia (South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan) and China examples of
local led development
• investment flows, knowledge exchanges and rapid economic growth
 Bretton Woods Institutions
• IMF, WTO & World Bank
• The Bretton Woods Agreement was reached in a 1944 summit held in
New Hampshire, USA
• The Bretton Woods Agreement established a system through which a
fixed currency exchange rate could be created using gold as the
universal standard.
• Abandoned in 1971 by Nixon
• From 1948 to 1990, world trade grew at average 7 percent
• After resistance in 70s, a decade of free market liberalization and
hyper globalization from 1979 -1989 due to Margaret Thatcher and
Ronald Reagan
 Bretton Woods Institutions
• Agenda Of IMF
• a. Stabilization on Agenda, Not job creation
• b. Taxation and its adverse effects on Agenda, not land reform
• c. Money to bailout banks, not for health, education, social safety nets for
unemployed
• IMF, World Bank and WTO agreements lack transparency, do not have
government oversight
• Reason for failure: IMF uses shock therapy: Rush free market economics
without establishing institutions to protect local commerce and ignore
local political, economy and social considerations.
• Privatization without land reform and competitive policies lead to crony
capitalism and neo-feudalism.
• Aid can lead to external stability but without effective localized policies it
increases debt, weakens policy credibility and more difficult adjustment in
the future
 Cons of Globalization
• Globalization has increased inequality instead of reducing it
• It moves jobs from developed world to cheaper developing ones
• Promotes extreme consumerism
• Undermine the welfare state
• Weaken democracy
• Harms the environment
• Entrench poverty in developing countries
• Tool for global ideological conquest
• American culture is becoming global culture through movies, tv shows,
streaming services, social media
 How 2008 Financial Crisis Opened Eyes of West
• 2008 financial crisis opened eyes to problems with globalization and
interconnectedness
• High inequality
• Unemployment
• Lower wages
• European Sovereign Debt Crisis 2010-2012 due to collapse of Iceland
Banking system and Fall in the Price of Oil 2014 reduced global trade
further:
• This fuelled further protectionism and populism and distrust of ruling elite:
politicians, big businesses
• Now the anti-globalization ideas couldn’t be swept under the rug, by saying
lack of economic understanding or because West wasn’t losing out earlier
• Many economists changed ship from pro to anti-globalization:
• Larry Summers , head of world bank, treasury secretary, president of Harvard
• He was the biggest proponent and defender of globalization from 1900s to 2000s but
opened eyes to its problems in developing world in 2008
 Global Pushback against Globalization
• In the United States, real incomes have not increased in 15 years
• Employment in textile, steel, industries and shoe making has
disappeared in US
• Lead of West in hi-tech industry, pharmaceutical and aerospace is
slowly disappearing
• Welfare and pension entitlements are no longer affordable
• How West has lost from Globalization
• a. Terms of trade of West have worsened, more imports less exports
• b. The benefits of the growth in 1st decade of 21st century gone to the
developing world and the rich in West, the average Westerner hasn’t gained
much
 Global Pushback against Globalization

• Reponses of West when not getting benefits of globalization

• Brexit due to flight of manufacturing

• Protectionism under Donald Trump

• Rise of Populist Leaders in France (Marine Le Pen) and Germany, warning

against free movement of people and goods
 Rise of Populism
• West has benefited unequally from Globalization
• Incomes of younger and better educated have risen in urban centers
but job losses of old and less educated workers in industry,
manufacturing
• There is perception among the 2nd group that politicians don’t care
thus populism, nationalism, protectionism
• Asia fared better than West to reap prosperity from globalization with
political support because of 2 reasons
• Investment in human capital (education and health) to prepare them for high
wages manufacturing jobs thanks to globalization
• Public Investment in infrastructure to attract foreign investment
 De-globalization
• The process of diminishing interdependence and integration between
nation-states
• Market disintegration took place after 2008 crisis
• Three possible responses to discontents of globalization
• Las Vegas strategy: hope that globalization will automatically work and things
like trickle down and free market will make everyone better off
• Trumpism: Protectionism, this won’t work as manufacturing jobs are on
decline due to technology robots and low wages and inputs cost in developing
costs
• Social Protection without Protectionism: Nordic countries knew they had to
remain open and workers risk of layoff, so ran programs to help workers move
from old to new jobs conveniently
 Covid-19 & Globalization
• Covid-19 travelled from China to Argentina the exact opposite side of
the planet, this shows the world is interconnected
• Globalization has made transmission of diseases exceptionally fast
• Some say Covid-19 is last nail in the coffin of globalization but this is
far from the truth
• Globalization is easy to hate, convenient to target and impossible to stop
• Covid-19 shows how such high level of economic and logistical
interconnectedness is fragile to shocks and some things need to be
manufactured locally as well
• Covid-19 led to shortage in medical supplies due to global supply chains
 Covid-19 & Globalization
• Covid-19 led to historic fall in economic indicators
• European Car sales by 76%
• US unemployment of 15%
• Air Trafic fell by 94%
• Border controls and travel restrictions
• Even in Schengen zone on internal movement
• Sudden realization of such high reliance on overseas producers
especially medical
• 1 in every 3 pill made in India which imports 2/3 of pharma ingredients from
China
• Per pound cost tripled of goods due to reduced movement
• Japan, India, EU and US vowed to reduce global reliance and build things at
home or reduce resiliency
 Hyper-Globalization
• The premise that cross-border trade and capital movements should
be free from regulatory restraints and national industrial policies
• The dramatic change in the size, scope, and velocity of globalization
that began in the late 1990s and that continues into the beginning of
the 21st century
• Is Hyper-globalization dead?
• Rise of China
• Supply Chain hiccups
• Covid-19
• Russia-Ukraine Crisis
• Course-correction rather than abandonment
• Figure out new rules
 Reforms for Distribution of Benefits of
Globalization
• At National Level
• Education
• Land reform
• Micro credit
• Epidemiology: Study of diseases
• At International Level
• Fair Trade
• Medical Initiatives
• Educational Exchanges
• Sharing Technology
• Ecological and Environmental checks
• Fair treatment of debts taken by previous leadership
• Access to life saving drugs like Aids, Malaria, HIV
• Reduced trade of arms and weapons which fuels local wars and conflicts
 Sources for Globalization
• The Economist
• Noam Chomsky, renowned author and historian,
• Jeremy Warner
• Amartya Sen, Indian economist,
• Joseph Stiglitz, American economist,
• Ijaz Nabi, Pakistani economist,
• Nikal Saval,
• Fareed Zakaria, Indian-American journalist,
War
 Themes in Past Papers
• The Barbarity of Ethnic Cleansing (2000)
• Nuclear weapons are 'Not Only a Great Peril, But a Great Hope'.
(2006)
• The more developed a country, the more lethally it is armed. (2007)
• Can we prevent 3rd WW (2008)
• Violence is the large refuge of the incompetent. (2014)
• The War on terror has contributed to the growing abuse of human
rights (2015)
• More and more military engagements by the United Nations, is the
world moving towards peace? (2017)
• Are modern wars not Holy wars ? (2017)
 Importance of Conflict
• Conflict is necessary to stimulate cognitive and physical faculties and to
achieve peace
• A sense of satisfaction after resolving challenges
• Global: Ozone Depletion, Population Control
• National: Truce between provinces for resources
• Individual: Sports, lobby in meetings
• Conflicts of party politics
• Satisfaction and leisure valued after exertion
• Utilitarians desire more leisure rather than making work more satisfactory, a place that
utilizes mental, physical faculties
• Conflict increases interest in political affairs and are innocent outlets for contest
• Humans have an impulse for conflict than peace and can be brought to
cooperate in attacking or resisting common enemy
• The impulse of self-assertion and getting what one wants in face of
opposition excites men
• In last 3500 year, only 268 seen no war
 Causes of War
• War produced by 2 forces
• Minority of warmongers who always advocate war
• Majority who don’t really bother, neither support or oppose the 1st group
• Mindset of Germany in WW1
• Interests of Germany only thing they care about
• Idea of national welfare competitive i.e. destroying good things in other countries
same as creating good things in Germany
• War Fever in a Common Man:
• Goes on with his stable, safe and mundane everyday life
• Sudden realization he belongs to a nation, stimulate adventure, passion of combat, if
nation wins he wins, if nation loses he loses
• Life of caution abandoned for excitement
• Noble to be reckless for nation but unwise to be reckless for oneself
• War is surrounded by glamour, honor, tradition and myths
• Extreme devotion to nation
 Causes of War
• Psychological and Biological
• Major instincts of man are responsible for war like
• Acquisition
• Mating
• Fighting
• Action
• Association
• Fighting instinct most developed and influential
• love for adventure and escape from routine
• Biological Reason for War
• Arises from Competition among groups
 Causes of War
• Economic Reason
• Basic economic reason for war is Land needed for
• Expanding population
• Material resources
• Feed people
• Receive taxes
• Industrial Revolution has made economic reason major cause of War
• To be wealthy have to produce more and need resources
• So attack or colonise and get cheap raw material
• Political Reason
• 2 major Political Causes of War
• Self-preservation
• Self-extension
• Idea that a nation must expand or else it will die
• Plus due to political, economic and social reasons nations keep on becoming weaker or stronger
• Thus, ignite the impetus for conquer
 Global Wars
• A winner of global war can benefit by rearranging the global trade system
as Britain’s victory over Napoleon and US over Hitler.
• WWI
• Militarization
• Alliances
• Imperialism
• Nationalism
• Domestic issues
• WWII
• The Great Depression
• Treaty of Versailles
• Hitler’s aggression
• Appeasement Policy
• Failure of League of Nation
 Decline of War
• Human nature has multiple characteristics
• 4 motives that promote violence
• i. Exploitation
• ii. Dominance
• iii. Revenge
• iv. Ideology
• 4 traits working against violence
• i. Self-control
• ii. Empathy
• iii. Moral sense
• iv. Reason
• Human nature is environmentally sensitive, not working in vacuum
• Human mind works on mostly rationality and reason
• Factors that have disincentivized war
• i. Commerce, its cheaper to buy from abroad than plunder
• ii. Measured responses to aggression
• 1. Economic sanctions
• 2. Symbolic declarations: UNGA Resolution
• 3. Non-violence resistance
 Future Potential for War
• Difficult to suppress war because it springs from emotions, not calculation
• Even if war is unprofitable doesn’t mean nations can’t go to war,
• World affairs are complicated and human rationality doesn’t always prevail
• Humility can curb war mongering
• National, religious and cultural tensions can be reduced by eliminating feeling of
superiority. that my nation, religion or culture is better than yours
• If prioritize individual welfare than national pride then
• Stopping war any time is a rational decision
• Promote diplomatic machinery and eliminate romanticism of war in
education
• People need to be empowered to think and take own decision so can’t be
victim of war fever
 21st Century
• Most peaceful time in human history
• No example of successful war
• Except Russian invasion of Crimea
• Cost of War has increased
• Economic progress of peaceful China v/s economic stagflation of conquering
Russia
• Deaths due to war have reduced greatly
• 300 per 100,000 in WW2
• 1 per 100,000 in 21st Century
 Current Facts
• USA and EU have 5 times higher population and 10 times bigger economy
• Current age information technology and biotechnology more
important than heavy industry
• Russia good at cyber-attacks but lacks civilian IT sector and its economy
dependent on oil, gas
• Cyber warfare has internationalized conflict
• Earlier US invasion in Iraq the common American wasn’t affected
• b. But now one side can retaliate in the home of other country by cyber attacks
• i. Stop air traffic
• ii. Cause train collision
• iii. Bring down electric grid

• In history war was low-damage, high-profit but nuclear and cyber

warfare have made it high-damage, low profit
 How to Counter War
• When a nation has seen misery of war, it is less likely to fall for war fever (Germany,
Japan)
• A nation won’t suffer from war fever when every individual can assess that defeat is
probable
• If peace loving nations can beat aggressive ones, the peaceful ones can band
together and agree to fight together against aggressor
• Story of Nato: Article 5: Collective defense, has worked
• Strategies
• Intelligent study of other nations
• Impartial historical accounts
• Travelling
• Honest thought
• Conscious of the needs, view and hopes of other people
• Sensitive to diverse values and culture and not plunge in attacking them
• Learn from other beneficial qualities and from their achievements
• Impulse of war needs to be curtailed
• Changes in education
• Economic structure
• Moral code through public opinion, press and media
 Ways to Achieve Peace
• One odd way for peace is a hegemon who is more powerful than all
but doesn’t really work,
• Leads to more conflict than peace
• Formation of a world-federation with only 1 army can lead to peace
• Remove extreme devotion to nation
• let go unquestionable loyalty
• have faith but open to truth
• be noble without being cruel
• inspired by great purpose rather than hate
 Sources on War
• Yuval Noah Harari
• Will Durant
• Bertrund Russell
• Steven Pinker
• Joseph Stiglitz
• Noam Chomsky
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• The Economist
• UN