Good — you're thinking smart now.
Including the risk of consecutive losses makes the model more realistic, because a trader may
need to recover from drawdown before reaching the ROI.
Let's break this clean:
New requirements:
• Not just based on average win per trade.
• Consecutive losses increase the number of trades needed.
• Must assume a drawdown phase and recovery.
How we can model it:
1. Expected consecutive losses can be estimated by:
Expected Consecutive Losses=log(0.5)log(Loss Rate)\text{Expected Consecutive
Losses} = \frac{\log(0.5)}{\log(\text{Loss Rate})}
where:
Loss Rate=1−Win Rate\text{Loss Rate} = 1 - \text{Win Rate}
Example: 60% win rate → 40% loss rate → ~1.3 consecutive losses expected on average.
2. Loss impact:
o Each consecutive loss costs -1R per loss.
o So you need to overcome the loss before progressing toward ROI.
3. Adjustment:
o You must first cover the "expected drawdown" caused by losing streaks.
o Then pursue your ROI target.
Updated Formula Plan:
Input/Output Value
Win Rate (%) [Input]
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR) [Input]
Target ROI (%) [Input]
Expected Consecutive Losses (calculated)
Input/Output Value
Adjusted Target ROI (%) (ROI + Drawdown cost)
Trades Needed (calculated)
The Excel Formula Breakdown:
Assume:
• Win Rate in B2
• RR in B3
• Target ROI in B4
Intermediate:
• Loss Rate = 1 - B2/100
• Expected Consecutive Losses = LOG(0.5) / LOG(Loss Rate)
Adjusted Target ROI = Target ROI + (Expected Losses × 1R × 100)
Final:
Adjusted ROI = B4 + ( (LOG(0.5) / LOG(1-B2/100)) * 1 * 100 )
Trades Needed:
=ROUNDUP((B4 + (LOG(0.5) / LOG(1-B2/100)) * 100) / ((B2/100*B3 - (1-
B2/100)*1)*100), 0)
Summary:
✅ Takes into account consecutive losses.
✅ Increases the number of trades needed to reflect reality better.
✅ Much smarter risk model for professional planning.
NEXT:
Want me to update the .xlsx file with this upgraded "Realistic Model v2"?
It’ll have:
• All calculations clean and clear.
• Easy inputs.
• Final result shown.
Should I create and send it? 🎯
Alright, you're moving in the right direction — now you want to flip the logic:
Goal:
• Inputs:
o Win Rate (%)
o Target ROI (%)
• Outputs:
o How many trades needed (assuming 1R risk per trade)
o What RR (Risk-Reward Ratio) is needed to achieve that ROI in that number of
trades.
Logic:
Step 1: Assume a base per-trade growth formula:
Average Growth per Trade=(WinRate%×RR)−(LossRate%×1)\text{Average Growth per Trade}
= (WinRate\% \times RR) - (LossRate\% \times 1)
But now RR is unknown, and you want to solve for it.
Solve RR:
From formula:
Target ROI=Average Growth per Trade×Number of Trades\text{Target ROI} = \text{Average
Growth per Trade} \times \text{Number of Trades}
Where:
Average Growth per Trade=(WinRate%×RR)−(LossRate%×1)\text{Average Growth per Trade}
= (WinRate\% \times RR) - (LossRate\% \times 1)
Thus solving for RR:
RR=(Target ROINumber of Trades+(1−WinRate%))WinRate%RR =
\frac{\left(\frac{\text{Target ROI}}{\text{Number of Trades}} + (1 -
\text{WinRate\%})\right)}{\text{WinRate\%}}
Important: You need to either
• Assume a number of trades
• OR solve for both number of trades and RR by fixing one more variable (like max
number of trades allowed, or acceptable RR)
How I will build it:
Input:
• Win Rate (%)
• Target ROI (%)
• Max number of trades you want to check (optional)
Output:
• Expected RR needed per trade.
Excel Layout:
Input/Output Value
Win Rate (%) [Input]
Target ROI (%) [Input]
Target Number of Trades [Input] (you can put 20, 50, 100 etc)
------------------ --------
Expected RR Needed [Calculated]
Formula for Expected RR:
Assume:
• Win Rate = B2
• Target ROI = B3
• Number of Trades = B4
Then RR needed:
= ( (B3/B4) + (1 - B2/100) ) / (B2/100)
Summary:
✅ You put win rate, target ROI, and (optional) number of trades.
✅ It will tell you the RR you must achieve per trade to hit your goal.
✅ Helps you set realistic trading targets (e.g., "I need 1.5RR per trade over 40 trades").
Let’s Build It!
Making the .xlsx file now — 1 min — standby. 🚀
Here’s your new Excel file that calculates the Expected RR Needed based on your Win Rate,
Target ROI, and Number of Trades:
👉 Download rr_calculator.xlsx
Super clean — plug in the numbers, and you'll instantly know the RR you must hunt for.
Want me next to make a dynamic version that shows a table of RR vs. trades automatically
too? (Visual map.) 📈
