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Trade Cal Pro

The document outlines a trading model that calculates the required Risk-Reward Ratio (RR) and number of trades needed to achieve a target ROI based on the win rate. It includes formulas for average growth per trade, adjustments for expected consecutive losses, and error handling for edge cases in Excel. The model aims to provide realistic trading targets and a clearer understanding of risk management in trading scenarios.

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alpha.trader.snjb1
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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26 views8 pages

Trade Cal Pro

The document outlines a trading model that calculates the required Risk-Reward Ratio (RR) and number of trades needed to achieve a target ROI based on the win rate. It includes formulas for average growth per trade, adjustments for expected consecutive losses, and error handling for edge cases in Excel. The model aims to provide realistic trading targets and a clearer understanding of risk management in trading scenarios.

Uploaded by

alpha.trader.snjb1
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Alright, you're moving in the right direction — now you want to flip the logic:

Goal:

• Inputs:
o Win Rate (%)
o Target ROI (%)
• Outputs:
o How many trades needed (assuming 1R risk per trade)
o What RR (Risk-Reward Ratio) is needed to achieve that ROI in that number of
trades.

Logic:

Step 1: Assume a base per-trade growth formula:

Average Growth per Trade=(WinRate%×RR)−(LossRate%×1)\text{Average Growth per Trade}


= (WinRate\% \times RR) - (LossRate\% \times 1)

But now RR is unknown, and you want to solve for it.

Solve RR:

From formula:

Target ROI=Average Growth per Trade×Number of Trades\text{Target ROI} = \text{Average


Growth per Trade} \times \text{Number of Trades}

Where:

Average Growth per Trade=(WinRate%×RR)−(LossRate%×1)\text{Average Growth per Trade}


= (WinRate\% \times RR) - (LossRate\% \times 1)

Thus solving for RR:

RR=(Target ROINumber of Trades+(1−WinRate%))WinRate%RR =


\frac{\left(\frac{\text{Target ROI}}{\text{Number of Trades}} + (1 -
\text{WinRate\%})\right)}{\text{WinRate\%}}

Important: You need to either


• Assume a number of trades
• OR solve for both number of trades and RR by fixing one more variable (like max
number of trades allowed, or acceptable RR)

How I will build it:

Input:

• Win Rate (%)


• Target ROI (%)
• Max number of trades you want to check (optional)

Output:

• Expected RR needed per trade.

Excel Layout:

Input/Output Value
Win Rate (%) [Input]
Target ROI (%) [Input]
Target Number of Trades [Input] (you can put 20, 50, 100 etc)
------------------ --------
Expected RR Needed [Calculated]

Formula for Expected RR:

Assume:

• Win Rate = B2
• Target ROI = B3
• Number of Trades = B4

Then RR needed:

= ( (B3/B4) + (1 - B2/100) ) / (B2/100)

Summary:
✅ You put win rate, target ROI, and (optional) number of trades.
✅ It will tell you the RR you must achieve per trade to hit your goal.
✅ Helps you set realistic trading targets (e.g., "I need 1.5RR per trade over 40 trades").

Let’s Build It!

Making the .xlsx file now — 1 min — standby. 🚀

Here’s your new Excel file that calculates the Expected RR Needed based on your Win Rate,
Target ROI, and Number of Trades:

👉 Download rr_calculator.xlsx

Super clean — plug in the numbers, and you'll instantly know the RR you must hunt for.
Want me next to make a dynamic version that shows a table of RR vs. trades automatically
too? (Visual map.) 📈

Good — you're thinking smart now.


Including the risk of consecutive losses makes the model more realistic, because a trader may
need to recover from drawdown before reaching the ROI.

Let's break this clean:

New requirements:

• Not just based on average win per trade.


• Consecutive losses increase the number of trades needed.
• Must assume a drawdown phase and recovery.

How we can model it:

1. Expected consecutive losses can be estimated by:


Expected Consecutive Losses=log⁡(0.5)log⁡(Loss Rate)\text{Expected Consecutive
Losses} = \frac{\log(0.5)}{\log(\text{Loss Rate})}

where:

Loss Rate=1−Win Rate\text{Loss Rate} = 1 - \text{Win Rate}

Example: 60% win rate → 40% loss rate → ~1.3 consecutive losses expected on average.

2. Loss impact:
o Each consecutive loss costs -1R per loss.
o So you need to overcome the loss before progressing toward ROI.
3. Adjustment:
o You must first cover the "expected drawdown" caused by losing streaks.
o Then pursue your ROI target.

Updated Formula Plan:

Input/Output Value
Win Rate (%) [Input]
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR) [Input]
Target ROI (%) [Input]
Expected Consecutive Losses (calculated)
Adjusted Target ROI (%) (ROI + Drawdown cost)
Trades Needed (calculated)

The Excel Formula Breakdown:

Assume:

• Win Rate in B2
• RR in B3
• Target ROI in B4

Intermediate:

• Loss Rate = 1 - B2/100


• Expected Consecutive Losses = LOG(0.5) / LOG(Loss Rate)

Adjusted Target ROI = Target ROI + (Expected Losses × 1R × 100)


Final:

Adjusted ROI = B4 + ( (LOG(0.5) / LOG(1-B2/100)) * 1 * 100 )

Trades Needed:

=ROUNDUP((B4 + (LOG(0.5) / LOG(1-B2/100)) * 100) / ((B2/100*B3 - (1-


B2/100)*1)*100), 0)

Summary:

✅ Takes into account consecutive losses.


✅ Increases the number of trades needed to reflect reality better.
✅ Much smarter risk model for professional planning.

NEXT:

Want me to update the .xlsx file with this upgraded "Realistic Model v2"?
It’ll have:

• All calculations clean and clear.


• Easy inputs.
• Final result shown.

Should I create and send it? 🎯

Alright, you're moving in the right direction — now you want to flip the logic:

Goal:

• Inputs:
o Win Rate (%)
o Target ROI (%)
• Outputs:
o How many trades needed (assuming 1R risk per trade)
o What RR (Risk-Reward Ratio) is needed to achieve that ROI in that number of
trades.

Logic:
Step 1: Assume a base per-trade growth formula:

Average Growth per Trade=(WinRate%×RR)−(LossRate%×1)\text{Average Growth per Trade}


= (WinRate\% \times RR) - (LossRate\% \times 1)

But now RR is unknown, and you want to solve for it.

Solve RR:

From formula:

Target ROI=Average Growth per Trade×Number of Trades\text{Target ROI} = \text{Average


Growth per Trade} \times \text{Number of Trades}

Where:

Average Growth per Trade=(WinRate%×RR)−(LossRate%×1)\text{Average Growth per Trade}


= (WinRate\% \times RR) - (LossRate\% \times 1)

Thus solving for RR:

RR=(Target ROINumber of Trades+(1−WinRate%))WinRate%RR =


\frac{\left(\frac{\text{Target ROI}}{\text{Number of Trades}} + (1 -
\text{WinRate\%})\right)}{\text{WinRate\%}}

Important: You need to either

• Assume a number of trades


• OR solve for both number of trades and RR by fixing one more variable (like max
number of trades allowed, or acceptable RR)

How I will build it:

Input:

• Win Rate (%)


• Target ROI (%)
• Max number of trades you want to check (optional)

Output:

• Expected RR needed per trade.


Excel Layout:

Input/Output Value
Win Rate (%) [Input]
Target ROI (%) [Input]
Target Number of Trades [Input] (you can put 20, 50, 100 etc)
------------------ --------
Expected RR Needed [Calculated]

Formula for Expected RR:

Assume:

• Win Rate = B2
• Target ROI = B3
• Number of Trades = B4

Then RR needed:

= ( (B3/B4) + (1 - B2/100) ) / (B2/100)

Summary:

✅ You put win rate, target ROI, and (optional) number of trades.
✅ It will tell you the RR you must achieve per trade to hit your goal.
✅ Helps you set realistic trading targets (e.g., "I need 1.5RR per trade over 40 trades").

Let’s Build It!

Making the .xlsx file now — 1 min — standby. 🚀

Here’s your new Excel file that calculates the Expected RR Needed based on your Win Rate,
Target ROI, and Number of Trades:

👉 Download rr_calculator.xlsx
Super clean — plug in the numbers, and you'll instantly know the RR you must hunt for.
Want me next to make a dynamic version that shows a table of RR vs. trades automatically
too? (Visual map.) 📈

Thanks — the #NUM! error is likely coming from this formula:

=LOG(0.5)/LOG(1 - WinRate)

This error happens when:

• The win rate is 100%, so 1 - win rate = 0, and LOG(0) is undefined.


• Or win rate is 0%, and it tries to divide by 0.

FIX: Add error handling to prevent this.

We’ll wrap formulas using IFERROR() and also validate win rate isn't 0% or 100%.

Updated Fix Plan:

Cell Fix
B6 (Loss Rate) =1 - B2/100
B7 (Expected =IFERROR(LOG(0.5)/LOG(B6), 0)
Consecutive Losses)
B8 (Adjusted ROI) =B4 + (B7 * 100)
=IFERROR(ROUNDUP(B8 / (((B2/100*B3 - (1-B2/100)) *
B9 (Trades Needed) B5/100)*100), 0), "Invalid Inputs")

Let me fix the sheet with this error-proofing now.

Here’s the fixed version of your model with proper error handling:

👉 Download roi_calculator_v2_with_risk_fixed.xlsx

No more #NUM! errors — now it gracefully handles edge cases like 0% or 100% win rate. Want a
compounding version next?

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