‘Warfare after Ukraine's Russian raid America taxes foreign investors Murdoch Inc: feuding, but thriving The year’s best books so far JUNE 7TH-1sTH 2025 an WH ap The stunning decline of boy preference“The Economist June 7th 2025, Contents Onthe cover “The stunning decline of boy preference: leader, page 9, Parents in developing countries are losing ‘their bias towards baby boys even asthe rich word starts to favour airs briefing, page 17 Warfare after Ukraine's Russian raid The story ofan attack, page 23. Britain's strategic defence review highlights Europe's challenge—lots of smart thinking, not enough money: leader, page 10, and analysis, page 27. The German exception, page 2. Ideology and lavish payments are keeping Russian lines supplied with cannon fodder, page 53, ‘America taxes foreign investors ‘policy that could do even more harm than taf: leader, page 10. Who might pay the “revenge tax” on foreigners? Page 65 How tariffs have affected American ifation, page 66..Do Americans consume ‘00 much? Page 63 Murdoch Inc: feuding, but ‘thriving Even asthe media’ rst family shred each other in court, their empire is doing unexpectedly well, page 56 “The year’s best books so far When you recine by the ‘swimming pool this summer, pick up something good to read, age 74 > The digital element of your subscription means that you can search our archive, rea al of our daly journalism, listen to podcasts and watch videos on ourapp or website. ‘The world this week 7 Asummary of political and business news Leaders 9 Demography Phew, it's gia! 10 America’s budget Capital pains 10 Defence in Europe Lessons from Ukraine a1 Myanmar Asia's forgotten hellscape x2 Rwanda Astrongman's gamble Letters 14 On why crime is falling, Oasis's loud music, Generation X, Mark Twain and chessboxing: By Invitation 46 Baiba Braze on how ‘to deal with Russia Briefing 17 The fairer sex Preferring girls to boys Bartleby How to negotiate a pay rise, page 61 $ @.9 vy Europe 24 Germany's new army 23 Poland's new president 23 Ukraine's killer drones 24, Geert Wilders goes 25 Charlemagne The constitution that failed Britain 27 Defence strategy 28 Blasphemy laws 29 Bagehot All pain, no gain Middle East & Aftica 430 The legacy of Kagame 33 Israels farright 34 The Kurds disarm United States 35 Meetscorusbot 36 Pete Hegseth’s travels 37 DOGE bites man 38 Twwo-wheeled New York 38 Trading carbon 39 ANew Jersey election 40 Voring laws The Americas 41 Inequality persists 42 Judges in Mexico 43 Suriname's chaotic democracy »» Contents continues overleaf6 Contents Asia 45 China's hellscape in Myanmar 447 South Korea's president 47 Indian addresses 48 Academic talent 49 Banyan Stealth mode China 30 The property market bottoms out 51 Studying in America 52 An EV price war International 53 Russias millionth casualty in Ukraine 55 The Telegram Stoking nationalist forces Business. 56 Murdoch Ine 57, American universities ‘88 Distributed energy 60 Retailing luxury 60 German public holidays (61 Bartleby Pay negotiations 62 Schumpeter Enterprise software ‘aun 55 Nombr 9451 Pine sce September 1 aes enact ero ttl ics ond adie Sister co ein rape Tn, © 225 Me Eon Nesp ‘asa Th Ean ap Lines Pte a den 280 as 2 Ge AA Fa en SpA Spd es oO SEOEN Co ELSON na] ot eons OCB nO ae ara Te Fortec insti es ‘tote ps ited a enomteanser ‘rrmacromiat comin ‘The Economist June 7th 2025, Finance & economic 63 American overconsumption 65 Trump's “revenge tax” 66 Tasiffinflation 67 The UAE Saudi Arabia 68 Buttonwood The missing theory of everything 69 Free exchange Stanley Fischer, an appreciation Science & technology 70 Alzheimer's drugs 71 Atand ancient scrolls : 72 Cutsat NASA 73 Well informed How ‘much coffee is too much? Culture ‘74 The year's best books 76 Orchidomania 177 Pithy pop songs 78 Designing for climate change Economic & financial indicators 79 Statistics on 42 economies Obituary 80 Amanda Feilding, campaigner for psychedelic research aes nc sae 2472 sovemowsiea Qrrecycle Tiscali Eat‘The Economist June 7th 2025, The world this week Politics Ukraine launched abold attackon airfields deep inside Russia Itlaunched 17 drones smuggled in containers, including to eastern Siberia, some 4,000km from Ukraine, Iclaims to have damaged or destroyed atleast 41 Russian planes, including strategic bombers, which are difficult toreplace. Afew days later Ukraine saidithad “severely damaged” Kerch bridge, which Tinks Russia with the Crimean peninsula it occupies, with underwater weapons, America’s president, Donald ‘Trump, said thachis Russian counterpart, Viadimir Putin, vowed on acall to retaliate against the drone strike. Meanwhile, Russian forces advanced into Ukraine's north- eastern province of Sumy. Peace talksin Istanbul broke upafterone hour. The two sides agreed toa prisoner swap but nota ceasefire Karol Nawrocki, the hard-right candidate of the Lawand Justice party, won Poland’s residential election inthe run-off with 50.9% ofthe vote, beating Rafal Trzaskowski,the government-backed centrist. European populists rejoiced. hostile president will bea blow forthe liberal agenda of Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk. He called a confidence vote for June uth. ‘The Dutch government collapsed after the hard-right leader, Geert Wilders, pulled his Party for Freedom from the ruling coalition aftersmaller partnersrefused to sign on tohisradical plans to cut migration, New elections are expected in the autumn. Dozens of Palestinians were Killed around the hubs ofa new aid-distribution system in Gaza. Some of them were killed by the Israel Defence Forces. Itsaid they had left designated routes. Many Palestinians have to walk for kKilometses to reach the points. ‘The UN said that blocking access to relief may amount to awarcrime and called foran independent investigation, Indirect ceasefire talks continued. Hamas proposed amendments to America’s plan fora 6o-day truce in Gaza, The plan, which was accepted by Israel includesan exchange of Israel hostages (both living and dead) forPalestnian prisoners. But the militant sroup wants Israel to commit tovithdrawing permanently from Gaza and ending the war. Trans supreme leader, ‘Ayatollah AliKhamenci, rejected American demands thathis country eventually stop enriching uranium. The issue has beena sticking: point over five rounds of negotiations. ‘Americahopesto reach adeal ‘that would if sanctionsin exchange forlran scaling backits nuclear programme. ‘More than im people began the hhajj The ancwal pilgrimage to Meccawillbe a testingjoumey this yearas temperatures ae expected to rise above 40°C. ‘The Saudi government is planting chousands of trees and setting up more shaded areas after some 300 pilgrims died in the heatlast year. Running out of road Five UN aid workers were killed ‘when theirconvoy was at- tacked on the way tothe city of cl-Fasherin Sudan's northem Darfurregion. The convoy had travelled some ,800km from the coast and would have been the fist in overa yearto reach the famine-stricken city. The number of people who have fled the country since Sudan's civil war started more than two years ago crossed 4m this ‘week, accondingtothe UN. Mr Trump barred citizens of 2.countries including Afghanistan, Iran and Sudan, from travelling to America, and restricted entry from seven more. The ban, which goes into effect on June gth cites national-security concerns. Daysealiers2 people were injured by incendiary devices atarallyin Boulder, Colorado, insupportofhostages in Gaza. ‘The suspected attacker, ‘Mohamed Sabry Soliman, wwasan Egyptian who had overstayed his tourist visa. He faces charges of attempted murder of the fest degree. Daysafterleaving Mr Trump's administration, Elon Musk, 3 tycoonand nominalally,called his “big, beautiful” budget bill a “disgusting abomination” ‘The non-partisan Congressio- nal Budget Office estimated that the sweeping package ‘would increase the federal budget deficit by some $2.4tm overthe next decade. The bill faces tough scrutiny in the Senate after narrowly passing the House of Representatives. America’s Supreme Court gave Mr Trump the green light to revoke legal protection in ‘America for more than $00,000 ‘migrants who had fled eco- nomic and political turmoilin Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Two of thecourt’s three liberal justices dissented. South Koreans turned out heavily toback Lee Jae-myung ina presidential election, The candidate forthe liberal Demo- cratic Party won with 49.4% of _3smvotes cast. His conserva- tive rival, Kim Moon-s0o, took 412%, Iewas resounding rebuke to the presidency of ‘Yoon Suk Yeo, whose short lived declaration of martial aw and subsequent impeachment triggered the snap poll. MrLee promised to restore stability and revive the economy. ‘The rial of Sheikh Hasina started in Bangladesh. The country’s former prime min- cr, who astyearfled to India, swas formally charged with crimes against humanity by a special court back home. Prosecutorsaccused herofa “systematic attack” on student- led protests in which neasly 4,400 people were killed ‘eeween julyand August 2024 Britain's prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, unveiled bold plans to prepare the country for war. The strategic defence review, which took ayearto ‘complete, envisages reforms in military procurement and organisation as wellas spending billions of pounds on nuclear weapons and up toa dozen new attack submarines. “Weare ina newera of threat, which demands a new era for UK defence,’ said SirKeir. Judging the judges President Luiz Inacio Lula daSilva said he would defend Brazil's Supreme Court from attackby the United States. He was fesponding to remarks made on May 2ist by Marco Rubio, the USsecretary of state, who warned of possible ‘American sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes, judge ‘onthe court, who is closely involved in the prosecution of JairBolsonaro, Brazil's former far-right president, for allegedly plotting & coup. Low turnoutin Mexico's first judicial election raised Letters should be addressed to the Editor at: The Economist, The Adelphi Building, 11 John Adam Street, London WON; Email: ltters@economist.com. ‘More letters available at ‘economist.com/lettersEXECUTIVE FOCUS 5 A AMRO __beputy director Positions at AMRO ‘The ASEAN*3 Macroeconomic Research Ofce(AMAO) an interations Crgonzation'dedesied to "secring he -macioeconame end. fnares Feollence and sabi ofthe ASEAN+S region = comping 10 members Of ne Associion cf Southast Asan Nations (ASEAN), and Chins; Hong Kong. China; Japan: and Korea. AMO full ts mandato tvough tee ore uncons: eonductng macroscenomic survellne, supporting regal financing arrangemeats (HFAs) and proving leet asestanee (1D) "0 in adaton, AMO serv as regional knowlege hu (RKH) fd playa a kay vole eiiatng ASEANS fnencal Cooperation For Oe Intomten, please vist hipssfamovasla rg! [AMR is curenty seeking dynamic and high qualified profeesonals for wo Senior Management es: (1) Deputy Director (Administration) This pola aadership role spearheads AMRO'S adminstvaon tuncons, Inaludng budget, nance, human rescues, teplafa, and. suppor Soriess alse oversees the inlomantaon of AMAOSTA activites, (2) Deputy Director (Cit, Stratogy and Coordination) This kay leadership roo is response for managing AMFO's satogy and ordination function, supervieng AMFO's poy snd rv funtion and Supporing he Chang Wal kelavebustraisaton (CM Kaso roves Setegle oversight or AMRO'S TA action ‘These postons ofr unique opportunities to lead Key functions and dive the organzatonal developmen of a growing inlenatonal organization "hat Sts no oly atthe heart cl ASEANSS regional economic an tnencal ‘Cooperation, bu ais plays a canal om promoting economic ana nares ‘echence and stabiy. For tl job descriptions and appication deta, pleas vist AMO cargos ota hips:amro-ssie.ergwark-with-us/¥current- opportunities Deadline for applications: 28 June 2025 Wo wit ackrowedge recsipt of ll appicains. Please note that only Shotised candidates wit be cosaced forthe segs eops VACANCY NOTICE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR REF. 202614TAAD14 EIOPA, the insurance and occupational pensions ‘supervisor for Europe, is curently accepting applications for the post of Executive Director to manage the day-to-day running of EIOPA including the implementation of the annual work programme, ‘Accountable to the Chairperson and Board of Supervisors, the Selected candidate wil be a fuleime independent professional and member of EIOPA’s staff, based in Frankfurt am Main. The appointment is for a five-year term which may be extended once eed Pera eed ere ees ors pepe rts tiem is Crees Leanne READY FOR A CHANGE? International Copper Study Group, International Lead and Zinc Study Group ‘and International Nickel Study Group SECRETARY-GENERAL ‘The International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the international Lead & Zine Study Group (ILZSG), and the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) are autonomous intergovernmental ‘organizations. The purpose of each Group is to facilitate international ‘cooperation on matters related to their specific metal or metals; +0 provide global forum for discussion; and to promote market transparency by providing detailed and timely information on production, usage and trade, The ICSG, 1LZSG, and INSG are now seeking candidates to fil the position of Common Secretary-General located in Lisbon, Portugal. Applications must be sent via e-mail no later than 30 June 2025, Forfurther details please goto:icsg.org/organization/recruitment‘The Economist June th 2025, BY INVITATION Baiba Braze There is nothing extreme about the Baltic states’ hard-nosed view of Russia "T/HOSe oF US living round the Batic Sea, more than in any other European countries, have the most to gain from a friend- ly and stable Russia, We also have the most to lose if decision- makers are misled by the illusory prospect of detente with the Kremlin. This is no time for wishful thinking. The Economis’s reporting on our region's security has long ‘been a journalistic lodestar, which is why many of us living around the Baltic Sea were disappointed to read in these pages that our view of Russia is "extreme", Ie is realistic and evidence-based. ‘Today many admit that we inthe Baltics were right in warning about Russia's trajectory towards militarism and autocracy, and about its imperialist objectives. Russian imperialism has deep roots. Ie predates Vladimir Putin-—and will most likely outlast him, ‘That is not an “incurable” belief. It is prudence. Our most important message is that Russia is not just Ukraine's problem. It threatens the international order. Mr Putin's ambitions stretch far beyond Ukraine. He dreams of spheres of influence and dominance beyond Russia's borders. He seeks to di ‘vide America and Europe to split NATO. He is deepening the “no- limits” partnership with China. He is working closely with rogue states including Iran and North Korea, and ruthlessly exploiting Africa's natural resources via his Afriea Comps. Nothing. suggests that Russia is ready for peace in Ukraine. Despite Mr Putin’ “three-day campaign” turning into a three-year catastrophe, his war machine is stil running. Any weakness only encourages him to continue with his aggression and seck at the negotiating table what he has failed to achieve on the battlefield. ‘Mr Putin is now following step-by-step Russia's well-worn ne- gotiations manual: issue absurd maximalist demands and blame the other party for not accepting them; concede nothing; continu- ously delay the process; reset expectations; wait for others to pre- sent compromises or concessions; and exploit this as weakness. Meanwhile, Russia continues—and indeed is escalating—its missile and drone onslaught against civilian targets in Ukrainian cities; this may intensify further after Ukraine's brilliant, sophisti- cated drone operation inside Russia on June ist. The Kremalin is also stepping up its non-conventional attacks against European countries, including cyber-attacks, disinformation operations, sabotage of critical infrastructure and election interference. All these methods have been tested and honed across the continent over decades, We in the Baltics did warn about taking them seri- ‘ously. Now we all see the consequences of not pushing back. Against this backdrop, Latvia sees a clear path towards a dur= able peace in Ukraine that rests on three pillars: strengthening our national and NATO's collective defence; weakening Russia's capacity to wage war, and sustaining Ukraine's ability to defend itself diplomatically, militarily and economically. ‘Rapidly increasing investment in hard deterrence and defence ‘capabilities isa must. NATO allies should aim to raise defence and defence-related spending to 5% of GDP. We must focus on align: ing military, intelligence and internal-security resources to re- spond to Russia’s non-conventional attacks, overcoming irritants in transatlantic relations, and (belatedly) achieving full European Union energy independence from Russia. This requires politcal will. The Baltic states show what is, possible. We and Poland will spend s% of GDP on defence by 2026. This year we have achieved total energy independence from Russia, having previously relied on it for most of our natural ga. Mr Putin will not stop until someone stops him. Our fist step should be to intensify financial warfare, The Graham-Blumental sanctions proposed in America’s Congress, which include a po- tential 500% tariff on countries that buy Russian fossil fuels, ‘would blow a hole in Russia's budget—especialy if accompanied by powerful new EU sanctions. Oil and gas exports remain Rus- sis fiscal lifeline, accounting for a third of federal revenue. Increasingly, these exports are shipped via the Baltic Sea using a shadow fleet designed to dodge sanctions. We can also do more to restrict Russia’s access to technology and to deter its international ‘enablers with “secondary” sanctions on those who trade wich i. ‘This maximum-pressure approach represents the only viable path to peace. We must deprive the Kremlin ofits income through tariffs on energy imports, financial restrictions and by lowering the ol price tis an approach grounded in realism because as long as Russia is ruled by this regime, it will be geared towards war, Russia is cleat rearming and preparing for long-term confronta: tion with the West, and we must prepare accordingly. Latvia's own history shows how peace can be achieved through strength. We established our republic in 1918 and secured it through the war of independence, The peace treaty with Soviet Russia in 1920 was signed after the Russians had been pushed ‘back and as the West stood united. Yet this unity splintered under economic upheaval, transatlantic disengagement and the failure of the League of Nations. Poland, the Baltic states and Finland fell victim to Fitler’s and Stalin's aggression. Once we won back our independence, after half a century of Soviet occupation, securing the withdrawal of Russian troops became possible thanks to ‘Western pressure and negotiations from a position of strength. With these lessons in mind, we must abandon once and forall illusions of detente, or peace achieved through appeasement. As The Economist's own editorials have repeatedly warned, anything less than visible, credible strength and unity tisks repeating the mistakes of history and inviting the next war. We in the West have all the necessary instruments to prevent it from happening. Tt ‘would not cost much, compared with the alternatives. Ml Baiba Brate isthe foreign minister of Latvia.“The Economist June 7th 2025, Ss ey g a —————| i 3S ' = , ES ye The fairer sex « = W& w ‘The bias in favour of boys is shrinking in developing countries even as a preference for girls emerges in the rich world N AMERICAN COUPLE is throwing a party to commemorate the moment ‘when they discover what sex their unborn child willbe. “Its a boy!” they blurt out, in a TikTok video that has since gone viral But the mother-to-be cannot feign excite- ment for long. Within seconds she is clutching her partner and sobbing. He re- assures her that they will have a daughter at some point, before they leave the room, too upset to stay with their guests. "Gender reveal” parties can be elabo- rate, with the news of what sex an expec~ tant couple's baby will be delivered by con- fetti cannons or smoke bombs, which ex- plode in telltale pink or blue, There are breathless hashtags: #boyorgil and #"Trac- torsO/Tiaras, But festivities that end in dis appointment for the unsuspecting #boy- ‘mom and pity from those attending have spawned a whole new genre on social me dia, “gender disappointment” videos, some of which attract millions of views. Count- less posts show or describe “feeling sad you aren't having a litle git Parents around the world used to have a pronounced preference for sons. In many cultures boys traditionally inherit both the family’s name and its wealth. Indeed, sons ‘were considered so much more desirable than daughters that many parents would choose t0 abort baby girls, leaving whole cohorts of children with far mote boys than girls in China and India, among other places, But in recent years that preference forboys has diminished dramatically in de- veloping countries—and signs of a bias in favour of girls are emerging in the rich world. For perhaps the first time in human: ity’s long history, in many parts of the world itis boys who are increasingly seen as a burden and girls who are a boon, In the natural course of things, there are roughly 105 male births for every 100 fe- male ones, which appears to be an evolu tionary response to higher male mortality. ‘The rate does fluctuate somewhat, for rea~ sons scientists do not fully understand Male births tend to spike immediately after wars, for instance. But until che 1980s, ‘when ultrasound became cheap enough to Jet most would-be parents learn the sex of a fetus, there were few ways to act on a preference for boys beyond having lots of children and coddling the male ones. And since families tended to be big, most par cents would anyway end up with a mix of boys and girls Little bundles of misery In recent decades, however, as parents in much of the world began having fewer children, they could no longer assume that at least one of their children would be a boy. Ultrasound gave parents a way to choose. The result was a massacre of fe male fetuses. Roughly som fewer girls have been born since 1980 than you would natu- rally expect, according to’ The Economist's calculations, In the worst year, 2000, there were around 1.7m more male’births than there should have been. As recently as 2015,18 Briefing Peering gto bors ‘The Economist June 2h 2025 > the numberof excess male births was still above im—which suggests that a similar number of unborn girls must have been done away with. Yet this year, The Economist estimates, that figure will fall to about 200,000. The precipitous drop in the sex imbalance equates to roughly 7m girls saved since 2001 and counting. The global preference for sons has almost disappeared, and with ithe hordes of missing girls (see chart) ‘The countries with the biggest skews in favour of boys in sex ratios at birth have seen a reversion towards the natural rate. Tn South Korea almost 16 boys were born for every 100 gils in 1990. The imbalance was even more pronounced in bigger fam- ilies. Among third-born. children, there were more than 200 boys for every 100 girls. Among fourth-born children, the ra- tio approached 250 boys for every 100 girls. Yet today South Korea has a near-even dis- tribution between the sexes. ritically, the desire for sons has also diminished rapidly in China and Indi, al though the sex ratio. at birth remains skewed in both countries. In China it has fallen from a peak of 117 for most of the 20008 to at in 2023, In India the rate was 107 that year, down from 109 in 200. Polling data bear out this shift. In many developing countries, to the extent that people express any preference about the sex of their children, they now seem to want a mix of boys and girls. Bangladeshi women who have not yet had children, for instance, report an almost identical desire forsons and daughters. Among those with one ortwo children, having a son increases the desire for daughters and having a daughter increases the desire for sons. Re- searchers have also observed a similar yen forbalance in most of sub-Saharan Aftica. In the long run, the shrinking of the preference for boys should return those countries with the most skewed popula- tions to something approaching a normal sex distribution, That means eventual de- liverance from a host of social problems associated with a deficit of gitls, from in- creased crime to human-trafficking of for- eign brides—although it will take decades forthe legacy of past bias to disappear. In the tich world, in the meantime, evi- dence is growing of an emerging prefer- ence for girs, Between 1985 and 2003, the share of South Korean women who felt it “necessary” to have a son plunged from 48% to 6%, according to South Koreas sta- tistics agency. Nearly half now want daughters, Similarly in Japan, polls suggest a clear preference for girls. The Japanese National Fertility Survey, a poll conducted every five years, shows that in 1982, 48.9% of married couples wanting only one child said they would prefera daughter. By 2002, 75% did. A similar swing existed for parents ‘wanting two or three children. In a handful of places, the overall birth statistics appear to reflect a preference for girls over boys. The sex ratio at birth is slightly lower than the norm in parts ofthe Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa, for ex: ample. A few countries in those regions have ratios as low as 100 or 101. More than ‘one in three households in the Caribbean isheaded bya woman, and the share of Ca- ribbean women who say they would rather have daughters is bigger than the propor- tion who prefer sons. In_ sub-Saharan ‘Aftica a man's traditional obligation to pay a hefty “bride price” to the family of the woman he marries may have helped make Biris more desirable. But in most countries, any preference for girls expressed in poils is not strong ‘enough to show in the overall sex ratio at birth. Mose parents-to-be seem to balk at sex-selective abortions, in other words. Nonetheless a bias towards gis is visible in instances when it is easier to act on, such as when seeking children through adoption or fertility treatment. The time- honoured indicator of preference—wheth- ‘er parents go on procreating depending on ‘what sex their existing children are—sug gests a hankering for gins Baby bummers In America parents with only daughters ‘were once more likely than parents with ‘only sons to keep having children, presum- ably to try fora boy. That was the thesis set ‘out in a study published in 2008 by Gordon Dahl of the University of California, San Diego, and Enrico Moretti at the Universi- ty of California, Berkeley. The report, which analysed census data from 1960 10 2000, concluded that parents in. America favoured sons. ‘That preference has since reversed, however. A study in 2017 led by Francine Blau, an economist at Cornell University, found ehae having a girl fire is nov associ ated with lower fertility rates in America The research, which uses data from 2008 to 2013, suggested a preference for girls A shrinking scourge “Missing git peryear ve births, m 18 2 7 Wend ttl ae in00 ht 03 lo co 7) eo oo a000 aS ‘oot ge wr Ot among married couples. Other rich countries follow a similar pattern. A pro-gil bias has been detected throughout Scandinavia. In these coun- tries, parents with one son and one daugh- ter have fewer children; those with two sons have markedly higher birth rates than pparents with two daughters. Finns whose first child isa git tend to have slightly few- er children. Studies have also suggested a preference for girls in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Portugal Fertility treatment provides further evi dence ofa bias towards girls. At New York City 1vF, a clinic in Midtown Manhattan, parents pay as much as $20,000 to select the sex of babies conceived through in-vi- tro fertilisation (tv). Wealthy families tra vel from countries like Britain, where the practice is banned. “In the past, it was all about boys,” says Alyaa Elassar, who leads the practice. But increasingly, parents opt for baby gis. Adoptive parents, too, tend to want gis. Those in America were willing to pay as much as $16,000 to secure a daughter, according to a study published in 2010. In 2009 Abbie Goldberg of Clark University asked more than 200 American couples hoping to adopt whether they wanted a boy or a git. Although many of them said they did not mind, heterosexual men and ‘women and lesbians all leaned on average towards girls, only gay men preferred boys. In South Korea girls account for a clear majority of adoptions. Although the seater interest in adopting girls has no ef- fect on sex ratios at birth at all, it gives a good indication of where parents’ prefer- ences lie, ‘The reasons behind the growing prefer- cence for girls and the relative devaluation of boys are not at all clear. There could be ‘many contributing factors. In Ms Gold- berg's study, which sorted parents by their sexual orientation, different groups gave different reasons for their leanings. Fle. erosexual men, for example, felt ginls ‘would be “easier to raise’, more “interest- ‘ng’ and “complex” as well as “less physi- cally challenging” than boys. Lesbians ‘were concerned about whether they would be able to socialise boys and so on. In countries that used to suffer from a severe bias in favour of boys, the shift may simply reflect a desite to avoid the pro blems that have flowed from skewed sex ratios. In China, where men are so prepon- drant that many have ended up as unmar- ried, childless “bare branches’, parents ay be seeking to avoid a lonely life for their children. I is also expensive to have boys, insofar as middle-class urban men are typically expected to own an apart- iment before they can get married, Parents (of boys often complain about the ruinous expense of helping them buy homes. ‘Another possibility is that a preference >20 Briefing Peteing gts to boys for girls may not be a sign of emancipation but a reflection of enduring gender roles. ‘The assumption that daughters will be ‘more nurturing whereas sons will grow di tant is ingrained even in the most egaita an societies. In Denmark, Norway and Sweden, where women are relatively well represented both in business and int poli- tics, couples nonetheless place greater im- portance on having at least one daughter than on having at least one son, Some soci= logists posit that this is because daugh- ters are much more likely than sons to pro- Vide care for elderly parents living alone. Babes in the woods ‘The growing desire for daughters may also reflect the social ills chat afflict men in ‘much of the rich world, Men still dominate business and politics and earn more for the same work almost everywhere—but they are also mote likely to go off the rails. In many rich countries, teenage boys are ‘more likely tobe both perpetrators and vic tims of violent crimes, They also are more likely to commit suicide. Boys trail girls at all stages of education and are expelled from school at far higher rates. They are less likely than women to attend universi ‘The gender gap at American universities bigger today than in 1972, when laws pro- hibiting gender discrimination in educa- tion were enacted, Butit is no longer wom- cen who are underrepresented, Competitive parents may see girls as, more likely o reflect well on them than boys. After all, boys develop fine motor skills later than girls. They are also worse at siting stil. Those are drawbacks in a world of toddlers’ music lessons and ai classes, *We no longer have trophy wives says Richard Reeves, president of the ‘American Institute for Boys and Men, Which seeks to remedy male social pro: blems, "We have trophy kids” The gender divide continues into adult: hood. Whereas high-achieving young ‘women move out of the family home, ‘young men are less likely to leave. An ex ample is Japan, with its staggering num. bers of young recluses known as hikitomo: ri, most of whom are men. Young men in America are also more likely to remain in their parents’ homes than girls, Around cone in five American men aged 25-34 lives, with his parents, compared with just over cone in ten women of the same age. A cultural reckoning with misogyny ight also be a factor. In a book called "BoyMom: Reimagining Boyhood in the Age of Impossible Masculinity’, Ruth Whippman observes that the world has re cently been exposed to a torrent of news about poor male behaviour. The #MeToo movement revealed male predation firs in Hollywood, and then in a series of other industries and countries. Men such as Har- vey Weinstein, Jeffrey Epstein and Andrew Tate have all become houschold names after being charged with multiple counts of various forms of abuse of women (and in Epsteia's case, girl). ‘More recently, the story of Giséle Peli cot, a Frenchwoman who was repeatedly rugged and raped by her husband and 50 other men, has stirred public indignation. “Adolescence”, a Netflix drama about a13- year-old British boy who is arrested for murder, sparked a global conversation about misogynistic behaviour in boys. It is, a fraught time to be raising boys, accord: ing to Ms Whippman. The list of fears is long, she writes in “Boymom’: “Rapist, school-shooter, incel, man-child, inter: rupter, mansplainer, selfimportant stoner, emotional-labour abstainer, non-wiper of kitchen counters” ‘A telling sign of the general alarm about boys in the rich world isthe interest politicians have begun taking in the sub: ‘The Economist June Wh 2025 ject, Last year Britain's Parliament opened an investigation into male underachieve ment in schools. Nonway has gone a step further, launching a Men's Equality Com mission in 2022. ts final report in 2024 concluded that tackling challenges for boys and men would be the “next step” in gender equality. Legislators across America’s political spectrum are making similarnoises. Utah governor, Spencer Cox, a Republican, has Created 4 taskforce on male well-being; Maryland's governor, Wes Moore, Demo: crt, has committed to “targeted solutions to uplife our men and boys"; Michigan's governor, Gretchen Whitmer, a wor nda Democrat), wants 0 get more young men into Michigan's colleges and ¥ocational courses. Tes important o keep the gloom about boys in the rich world in perspective. “There is litle evidence that a desire for daughters translates into behaviour that discriminates against boys—or girls” says Lisa Eklund of Lund University in Sweden, ‘With 100,000 sex-selective abortions of fe sale fetuses still taking place in China each year, eradicating. prejudice against sitls should remain a priority. But technology may soon alter the pic tue, just as cheap ultrasounds di so years ago. Given an easy way to act on their pref erence for girls, parents in the rich world right start doing so in greater numbers New testing methods are allowing parents toleara the sex oftheir unbora child much earlier in its gestation, Some kits can be bought online or in shops, require just a few drops of blood from the mother and work from as little as six weeks. At that stage fiends and family may not know that the mothers pregnant and therefore need not know ifshe ends the pregnancy. WP and other fertility treatments are also becoming cheaper, more effective and 50 more common. In America, where sex Selective 1VFis legal around a quarter of ll IVF attempts nov lead to lve births, com- pared with 14% during the 1990s. Some 90% of couples who use a technique called sperm-sorting to select the sex of their child said chey wanted a balance of sons land daughters. Even so, in practice 80% of them opted for gis. If that imbalance en dures even as such methods spread, Amer ica’ sex ratios wll soon star to skew. ‘And even if sex ratios at birth remain at the natural level, the preference for girs is still important. just as sex-selective abor- tions in the developing world are a reflec- tion of underlying disparities and peeju dices, the incipient bias towards gids in the #ich world presumably reveals some thing about how societies function. Relev ing the social pressures that lead parents to prefer girls to boys would be a good idea irespective of the latest statistics on the sex ratio a birth.“The Economist June 7th 2025, They’re back Germany is preparing to turn the Bundeswehr into Europe's mightiest army HIS TIME they were invited, On May and locals cheered as German tanks rolled through the streets of Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital once occupied by the Nazis. City buses flashed tributes £0 the fraternal bonds linking the NATO allies Even so, when the Bundeswehrs bras band struck up a rendition of "Prussi's Glory’, some of the German dignitaries as- sembled for the inauguration of their ar- my's 4sth Panzer brigade felt a twinge of unease, It wasa't until they saw the beam= ing faces of their Lithuanian counterparts that they were able to enjoy the show. The armoured brigade, which will num- ber s,000 by 2027, is Germany's first per ‘manent deployment abroad since the sec ‘ond world war-Itisalso the starkest sign of the extraordinary turn taken by a country that took full receipt ofthe peace dividend. after 1990, sheltering under American pro- tection as its own army withered and its commercial ties with Russia strengthened (Gee chart 1 on next page). The Lithuania decision was taken in 2023 as part of the Zeitenwende, or “turning- point’ in security policy instigated by Olaf Scholz the then chancellor, after Russia's invasion of Uk raine, The €100bn ($i14bn) spending spree he unleashed has already given Germany the world’s fourth-biggest defence budget, reckons the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 23 Poland's new president 23 Ukraine's Killer drones 24 Geert Wilders goes. 25 Charlemagne: The constitution More is to come. Bolstered by a recent decision to loosen Germany's debt brake, a fiscal straitjackes, the new government plans to ramp up defence spending fur- ther. Indeed, rearmament is set to become its animating mission. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor, says he intends to make the Bundeswehr the "strongest conventional army in Europe". He has also signalled that Germany will sign up to a new long-term NATO defence-spending target of 3.5% of Gp», plus 15% for related infrastructure, at a summit this month—a total that would translate into €21sbn a year at today’s level of output. (A budget will follow the NATO ‘summit, Like the Lithuanians, almost all of Germany’s allies are delighted by the country’s belated commitment to Euro: pean security. Haltingly, and not without a degree of historically inflected torment, ‘Germans themselves are getting there too. ‘Mr Scholz’s fund largely “filled in the potholes", as General Carsten Breuer, the head of the armed forces, has put it, but ‘much remains to be done. The coming ‘wave of spending will aim to bolster Ger- many’s role as NATO's “critical backbone”. Priorities include reinforcing air defence, refilling ammunition stocks and building long-range precision-strike capabilities. Officials priorities are clear. “Time is of22 Europe ‘The Economist June 7th 2025, > the essence” says General Alfons Mais, the head of the army, encouraging Germany's defence industry to focus on mass produc- tion, Insiders are sceptical about building ‘up domestic or European industry at the expense of off-the-shelf solutions. from elsewhere, such as America, in the name of “strategic autonomy’. “If we face delays or delivery challenges at home,’ says General Mais, “i's better to take a broader ap- proach and look at who can deliver” Some worry that Germany is failing to lear from Ukraine, with its drone swarms and “transparent” ‘battlefields. “Tech in Germany is amazing,” says Nico Lange, a former defence-ministry official. “But the politcal side does not know how to use i Noone wants to fight the last warby build- ing up stockpiles of drones that quickly be- come obsolete. But planners also need to ensure Germany is not left over-rliant on legacy systems. “We need a market-driven industry that innovates, fails in one place and succeeds elsewhere, using private cap- ital” says Gundbert Scherf, the co-CEO of Helsing, a startup with a focus on Aten- abled land, air and maritime systems. Upgrading the Bundeswehr also means tackling a sluggish planning and procure- ment bureaucracy. When Mr Merz pro- posed his change to the debt brake, he said hhe would do “whatever it takes” to protect peace and freedom in Europe. Yet turning the money taps on first inevitably reduces the pressure to reform, notes Claudia Ma- jor of the German Marshall Fund, a think- tank. Germany's federal audit office re- cently called for “far-reaching changes” to a Bundeswehr it said had become “top- heavy” with management. Many experts share this analysis “Procurement takes too long,” laments General Mais. “Signing a contract is one thing, getting the stuff to the troops is another” ‘A common grumble is that Germany “gold-plates" its processes, imposing oner- ous requirements such as ensuring tanks ate suitable for pregnant women. “The 80% solution now is better than the 100% one in five years” says Matthias Wachter, ‘On second thoughts... tary spending, % of GOP Germany" {900" 70” 80 Soace at AaexNATO 90 2000 Mixed feelings a ‘Germany. % reepending, May 2028 {sitgod or bad hat Germany plans to spend apically moran delncain the tre? Bad Gon, ofet_ ind, 28 70 head of security policy atthe Federation of German Industries. The German 1R1S-T ait-defence system, which has proved itself in Ukraine is nevertheless still undergoing testing for domestic use. ‘Tackling these roadblocks falls to Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, whose plain speaking has made him Germany's ‘most popular politician. Despite that, not ‘everyone is convinced he has the patience to grapple seriously with the Bundeswehr’s ‘bureaucracy. “He is the best minister we've had for yeats? says Sara Nanni, a Green MP ‘on the Bundestag’s defence committee. “But he can be abit superficial.” A new law, the imperiously named Planungs- und Bes- chaffingsbeschleunigungsgesetz (Planning and Procurement Acceleration Act), aims to relax some regulations. But merely tweaking the system may not be enough. ‘Are Germans ready to make themselves Ariegstichtig, or “warteady’, as Mr Pistori- us has demanded? Paranoid about reopen- ing the social rifts of the covid-g years in a country that retains a scepticism about military force, Mr Scholz. was cautious in his rhetoric and halting in his help for Uk- raine; Mr Merz strikes a sharper tone. Ves tiges ofthe old attitude remain, such asthe self-imposed bans at dozens of universities ‘on accepting government money for mil tary research. Ms Major worries that if Uk: a Selected countries, 2024 oo 2 2356 Pond UnstedStatee isn Sermany Tukey France Nestea ay Sean rane is forced into a “dirty ceasefire’, the ‘momentum of recent years may be squan- dered as calls for diplomacy and détente with Russia gather steam. So far, pethaps because skirting the debt brake has allowed Germany to avoid sguns-or butter trade-off, voters have by and large backed the changes (see chart 2). Atitudes towards the army are changing, too. Soldiers marvel at the esteem they now encounter in daily life. “Sometimes ‘when I'm on the street peopie stop me to say, “Thank you for your service'—tike in “America!” exclaims one cadet officer. Atrickier test will come when Germany begins. serious debate over restoring con- scription, which was suspended under An- gela Merkel in ou. The Bundeswehr is struggling to get troop numbers over 380,000, well shore of the current target of 203,000, itself likely to be lifted after the NATO summit. Given Germany's NATO commitments, General Breuer thinks Ger- ‘many will need 100,000 extra troops, in- cluding reservists, by 2029, For now, Mr Merz's government hopes to get there with compulsory question- naires fors8-year-old men (an extension to women would need a_ constitutional change). That will at least buy time to re build Germany's crumbling barracks and hire the military trainers a bigger army needs. But harily anyone thinks an ele- ‘ment of compulsion can be avoided. “I'm absolutely convinced we will have this de- bate,” says General Mais. Polls find a ma- jority of Germans in favour of restoring Conscription; support is predictably lowest among the young. ‘Along march ahead Germany's various agonies found expres- sion at a recent “Zeitenwende on Tour” event in Gritz, an east German town on the Polish border where nearly half of voters support the hard-right, pro-Russia Alternative for Germany party. Mr Lange, the former defence official, led a discus- sion on rearmament in front ofa disputa- tious audience. Some angrily blamed [NATO enlargement forthe Ukraine war, or issued jeremiads against profiteering arms companies. Others pushed back. Andre, a hospital worker who had driven from Dres- den to support the case for rearmament, sy the issue split his colleagues 50-50. “The government should have been do- ing this from the star says Mr Lange, who has been taking his message to Germans for over three years. Is grinding work, es pecially since Germans are now being asked fo make sacrifices on behalf of for eign lands. In Vilnius, Mr Merz said *Lith- tania’ security is also our security” a plain statement of his country’s NATO commit- iments that also implies tough demands of ordinary Germans. Only now, perhaps, is that message beginning to get through. i‘The Economist June 7th 2025, Europe 23 Poland Populist pugilist Anew hard-right president /HE PRESIDENTIAL election in Poland on June ist was a distillation of the po- litical choice facing all Europe these days. Rafal Tizaskowski, the liberal mayor of ‘Warsaw, was backed by the centrist, pro- European government. Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian and former amateur boxer, was nominated by Law and Justice (is), the hard-rght opposition party, and supported by Donald ‘Trump's administra- tion and by populists abroad. The cam- paign was bitter, and close enough that ex- it pols on the evening of the election had the mayornarrowly ahead. But when all the votes were counted it was Mr Nawrocki ‘who had won, taking 50.9% of the vote to MrTraaskowski's 49.16. Mr Nawrocki presented himself as the candidate to hold the government of the prime minister, Donald Tusk, in. check "We will not allow Donald Tusk to consol- date his power” he said at his post-election rally, denouncing the government for aim- ing to achieve a "monopoly". For suppor- ters of Mr Trzaskowski or Mr‘Tusk, that has an ironic ring. Since coming to office in 2023 the prime minister has been trying to tundo Fis's attempt at state capture while was in power from 2015 to 2023, when packed the courts and independent inst tutions with its cronies. Conflicts with European courts led the European Union to cut off aid for years. Mr Nawrockis victory may now cripple the government’seffort to repair the rule of law. The Pis-backed candidate is new 0 politics, bute can wield a simple tool—by using the presidential veto to block Mr ‘Tusk’s agenda. The government lacks the three-fifths majority in parliament needed to override it. The hard right’s win seems also likely to touch off a crisis for Mr Tusk’s eclectic coalition, which includes every- thing from progressive leftists to a conser- ‘ative farmers’ party. Pis will doubtless try to persuade right-leaning MPs to defect and bring down the government. Even fit fails, the next elections to par- liament are due in 2027. Either way, Mr “Tusk appears now to be a lame duck, though he tried to dispel that impression by calling a confidence vote supposedly to demonstrate the strength of his coalition's majority; it will rake place on June nth. Mr Nawrockis victory worried investors. Po- land's bulish stockmarket fell by 2% after the results were announced. Mr Trzaskowski owes his loss in part to the government's inability to deliver. When Mr Tusk won the election in 2023, he promised to purge Pis's cronies from the courts, public media and state-owned companies. But the outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, also aligned with Pis, blocked crucial reforms and routine ap- ointments, Mr Tusk put much of his rule- ‘flaw agenda on hold. That was not his fault, but on other priorities, such as iber- alising access to abortion (which Pis had all but banned), he was unable to get his uunruly coalition to agree. Poles have clearly lost patience: in an exit poll on June ast by G8, a Polish pollster, 47% of voters sai they had a poor opinion of the govern ment, while just 30% had a favourable one. ‘The Polish presidency is not responsi ble for EU policy; Mr Tusk, not Mr Naw rocki, will continue to attend EU summits. Nonetheless, the presidentelect can be ‘expected to try to shift the country ina Eu rosceptic direction. He was endorsed dur ing the campaign by Viktor Orban, Hunga- Ukraine 1y’s prime minister, and by athers from the EU's populist bloc. "We don't want to be a European Union province,” he told suppor- ters at a rally: Mr Naverocki has also turned away from Pis's traditionally frm support for Ukraine, pledging during the campaign to oppose that country’s admission to NATO, though there is very little chance that this will happen soon. For many of Mr Nawrocki’s opponents, the most troubling aspect of his Victory is his tainted past. In the last weeks of the campaign, journalists reported claims that inthe early 2000s he procured sex workers for guests at a hotel where he worked. He denies those allegations. He has acknowl- edged, however, that in his 20s he engaged in mass brawls with other football hooli gans. Newspapers reported for weeks on his relasonship with an aged neighbour, ‘whom he allegedly scammed out of his Hae Mr Navrockt and his allies call such alle gations a smear campaign by Mr Trzas- Kowski and the state media. Drones and diplomacy Ukraine's war is unfolding in overlapping dimensions ARELY HAS a week of war seemed so fusing. Ina few early June days, un- ig assumptions about Ukraine and Russia were shaken in thtee ways. On June ast Ukraine launched one of the most dar- ing raids in the modern history of warfare, releasing killer drones from trucks to scav= lenge on strategic bombers deep inside Russia, reimagining old types of sabotage + mussia ae, + as si UNAS Se canst Son «Senne seat |S, cae ‘Sour: atte te and exposing Russia's vulnerabilities. Two days later Ukraine struck the bridge link- ‘ng oceupied Crimea to the Russian main Tand. In between, there were peace talks in Istanbul that were not realy talks: Russia doubled down with its ultimatums, but lines of communication were opened. On the war front, meanwhile, Russia contin- tued to press Ukraine hard, while bleeding hhard too, suffering perhaps its millionth casualty (See International section). In a telephone call to Donald Tramp on June 44th, Vladimir Putin promised retaliation. The operation the Ukrainians code- ‘named “Spider Web” was 18 months in the making. In scale, audacity and timing, it played out like an orchestra. The attack fo- cused on at least four airbases, the farthest ‘over 4,000 km from Kyiv. They used over 100 quadcopters that emerged almost si- ‘multaneously from hidden compartments inside trucks, which then self-destructed. Ukraine's main intelligence agency, the 'SBU, which led the operation, claimed to hhave damaged or destroyed at least 42 air- craft, including nuclearcapable bombers and early-waming planes. Satelite images suggest fewer were destroyed, but with ov- €er13 confirmed losses, it was @ spectacular blow to Russian capabilities—and pride, Ukrainian intelligence sources said they hoped the operation would sow doubt»