Report 15 2024
Report 15 2024
FIGURE 1
Total Population Before and After Pandemic
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2022
Region 2000 2010 2020 2022
% Change % Change % Change
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 9.7% 331,449,520 7.4% 333,287,557 0.6%
New York State 18,976,457 19,378,102 2.1% 20,201,230 4.2% 19,677,151 -2.6%
New York City 8,008,278 8,175,133 2.1% 8,804,190 7.7% 8,335,897 -5.3%
Bronx 1,332,650 1,385,108 3.9% 1,472,654 6.3% 1,379,946 -6.3%
Brooklyn 2,465,326 2,504,700 1.6% 2,736,074 9.2% 2,590,516 -5.3%
Manhattan 1,537,195 1,585,873 3.2% 1,694,251 6.8% 1,596,273 -5.8%
Queens 2,229,379 2,230,722 0.1% 2,405,464 7.8% 2,278,029 -5.3%
Staten Island 443,728 468,730 5.6% 495,747 5.8% 491,133 -0.9%
Sources: U.S Census Population Estimates; OSC analysis
2 Report 15-2024
population decline was much worse than in the nation experienced during the same period. While
State, which declined by 2.6 percent, and in the the City’s natural increase improved in the 12
nation, whose population increased by 0.6 months after June 2021, it was still 32 percent
percent. lower than the 2019 increase. This rate was still
better than the nation, which remained 73 percent
Among the City’s boroughs, the Bronx had the below its 2019 increase.
largest population decline, shrinking by 6.3
percent. Most other boroughs decreased by over This depressed level of natural increase resulted
five percent each except for Staten Island, whose from the over 41,000 COVID-related deaths in the
population declined by just 0.9 percent. City through July 2022. 3 At the same time, the
public health crisis and the economic turmoil that
“The population of children followed led to fewer births. 4 Compared to the
younger than 5 years old number of births from July 2018 to June 2019, the
declined by 12.5 percent from number of births in July 2020 through June 2021
April 2020 to June 2022, a much was 11 percent lower, dropping to 95,037. In the
faster rate of decline than that following year, the number increased to 97,939,
of the adult population (4.7 still 8.3 percent lower than the 2019 level.
percent).”
In New York City, with fewer births since the
According to data from the U.S. Census, the pandemic, the population of children younger
decline in the City’s total population since April of than 5 years old declined by 12.5 percent from
2020 is due to the relatively large number of April 2020 to June 2022, a much faster rate of
residents leaving the City for other parts of the decline than that of the adult (ages 18 and over)
country, which is not being offset fully by gains in population (4.7 percent).
natural increase and net international migration.
Even with the large post-pandemic decline, the
Fewer Births and More Deaths natural increase in the City stayed positive, with a
From April 2020 to June 2021, the natural total cumulative increase of 48,460 people from
increase in the City was 65 percent lower than April 2020 to June 2022.
the increase that occurred from July 2018 to June
2019, which had already been the lowest during An Increasing Outflow of
the prior decade (see Figure 2). However, this Residents to Other Parts of U.S.
was better than the 80 percent drop that the Outflow Started Long Before the Pandemic
FIGURE 2 The outflow of residents from New York City to
Natural Increase (Births Minus Deaths) elsewhere across the nation has been observed
80 1,600
NYC (left axis) US (right axis) in every year since the data series began in 1990.
70 1,400
The overall population only increased before the
Thousands of People
Thousands of People
60 1,200
pandemic because of positive net international
50 1,000
migration and natural increase. As more and
40 800
more residents left the City, this outflow
30 600
eventually outweighed changes in international
20 400
migration and natural increase, resulting in the
10 200
City’s post-pandemic population decline.
0 0
From July 2010 through June 2011, net domestic
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Report 15-2024 3
FIGURE 3 Another reason that may have driven residents to
New York City Net Domestic Migration leave is the difficulty of raising a family in the City.
0 In the 2015 survey, 44 percent of residents said
-50 the City was either a fair or poor place to raise
Thousands of People
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
that from 2010 to 2020, the population of young
Note: Year denotes 12-month period ending in June 30 of that year. children (younger than 5) increased by just 4.4
Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates
percent, less than half the rate of adults (9.1
Figure 3). By June 2019, the net domestic percent). Many families with children also likely
migration in the prior 12 months was negative left the City as the total child population (younger
131,367 people. than 18) in the City had an even slower growth
There are many factors that may have driven rate of 2.7 percent during this period.
residents to move out of the City during this time, Pandemic Led to Faster Rate of Outflow
but the persistent high cost of living was likely
one of them. 5 In a 2015 New York Times/Siena While there are many reasons residents chose to
College Poll, 51 percent of City residents said leave the City even before the pandemic, others
they were just getting by financially or finding it remained because their employment was tied to
difficult or very difficult. In the same survey, 17 the City, limiting where they could live to the
percent said that at some point over the last year, commuter shed. However, with the onset of the
they did not have enough money to pay for pandemic, many employers implemented work-
adequate shelter or housing. 6 from-home policies for their employees, who tend
to earn higher incomes. Even now, years after the
These figures varied substantially by income pandemic began, some form of remote work
range but were felt across the spectrum, with 72 policies are the norm for many workers as
percent of residents earning $50,000 or less evidenced by an in-office rate of around 50
responding as just getting by or finding it difficult, percent. 8 Fully remote workers were able to move
versus 17 percent for those earning $100,000 or anywhere outside the City while even partially
more. Households with children at home (57 remote policies allowed workers to live farther
percent) were also more likely to respond as just away from their City job.
getting by or finding it difficult.
The pandemic and the resulting lockdowns and
“The number of people that left mandates intensified the outward migration from
the City from 2020 to 2021 New York City to elsewhere within the nation and
increased by 35 percent lowered the domestic migration into the City.
compared to those that moved According to Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
out from 2018 to 2019…the migration data, the number of people that left the
number that moved into the City from 2020 to 2021 increased by 35 percent
City was 10 percent lower.” compared to those that moved out from 2018 to
2019. At the same time, the number of people
that moved into the City was 10 percent lower. Of
4 Report 15-2024
the people that left the City, the top three FIGURE 4
destination states were other parts of New York Net International Migration
State (28.9 percent), New Jersey (18 percent), 70
NYC (left axis) US (right axis)
1,400
Thousands of People
Thousands of People
50 1,000
Similar to the trend from the IRS data, U.S. 40 800
Census data showed that from July 2020 to June
30 600
2021, the domestic outflow of residents
20 400
outnumbered the inflow by 313,358 people, more
10 200
than double (139 percent) the amount from the
0 0
12-month period ending in June 2019 and over
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
six times the amount from a decade ago.
Note: Year denotes 12-month period ending in June 30 of that year. Data before
2020 uses old methodology which produced lower net international migration totals.
In the following 12 months, many of the higher- Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates
income individuals that left the City returned to
work in person as restaurants, cultural
institutions, Broadway shows and many other “Like the rest of the country,
forms of entertainment also opened back up. As a the City’s inflow of international
result, the gap between those leaving and those migrants was slowing before
moving in improved by almost a third to 216,031, the pandemic and worsened as
though this is still 64 percent higher than the 2019 the pandemic stopped almost
level.
all international travel.”
Inflow of International Migrants After the onset of the pandemic, from April 2020
Slows to June 2021, net international migration fell to
The immigrant population is a vital part of the City 20,978 people, almost a third lower than the level
as they made up 36.8 percent of the total from the 12-month period ending in June 2019
population in 2022. Shares in some and almost two-thirds lower than the June 2016
neighborhoods such as Jackson Heights and level. This large decline in immigrants is likely
Flushing exceeded 50 percent. Like the rest of due to restrictions on international travel that
the country, the City’s inflow of international were implemented by governments all over the
migrants was slowing before the pandemic and world to mitigate the spread of the disease. The
worsened as the pandemic stopped almost all drop is likely to have been worse because post-
international travel. pandemic international migration data (2021 and
In the decade prior to the pandemic, international later) was raised due to a change in methodology
from the U.S Census. 10
migration declined in the City, from a net of
63,067 people in the 12-month period ending in By June 2022, as COVID-19 subsided and
June 2011 to a net of 30,610 people in the period traveling restrictions were lifted, net international
ending in June 2019 (see Figure 4). However, the migration more than doubled (172 percent) from
decline was not gradual. Instead, a steep drop the prior year to 54,307 people, the highest level
started in the 12-month period ending in June since the 12-month period ending June 2016. At
2017, when the federal government made the same time, the nation saw an increase of 169
immigration into the U.S. more restrictive, and net percent to reach a level close to that in 2016.
international migration dropped by 22 percent
from the prior year to 48,030 people. 9
Report 15-2024 5
Changes to the Composition of the same time, the median household income in
the City’s Population the City decreased by 2 percent from 2019 to
With such a large change to the overall 2021.
population since the pandemic, the composition “After the onset of the
of the City’s population has also changed. In the pandemic, the residents that
first year after the pandemic, many high-income left were more likely to be
households left for other parts of the country but remote workers…37 percent of
in the following year, the share of low-income those employed worked in the
households dropped even more, resulting in a high-paying sectors of
lower share of low-income households in the City. business services, financial
The City has also become more diverse as the activities and information.”
share of the non-White population has increased,
which is similar to nationwide trends. Another As a result, from 2019 to 2021, according to the
trend that occurred in the City as well as in the ACS, the share of households in the City with
nation is the aging of the population as the incomes of $100,000 or more decreased for the
number of seniors (ages 65 and over) increased first time in over a decade, declining by 0.8
much faster than the rest of the total population. percentage points to 35.2 percent (see Figure 5).
During the same period, the nation had the
Household Incomes opposite trend as the share of households with
After the onset of the pandemic, the residents incomes of $100,000 or more continued to
that left were more likely to be remote workers. 11 increase.
Remote workers also tend to have higher However, in the following year, as the dangers of
incomes, so higher-income households were the pandemic subsided and restrictions and
more likely to have moved. 12 lockdowns were lifted, many employers changed
According to the American Community Survey remote work policies to some form of hybrid
(ACS), in 2021, of the people from the City that schedules, bringing some employees back into
moved to other parts of the country in the past the office. 13 As a result, from 2021 to 2022, the
year, 37 percent of those employed worked in the share of City households with incomes of
high-paying sectors of business services, $100,000 or more increased by 3.7 percentage
financial activities and information even though points, the most in at least a decade, to reach 39
only 28 percent of employed City residents percent, a record high. In 2022, the people that
worked in these sectors. In contrast, 22 percent FIGURE 5
of employed City residents worked in the lower- Share of Households with Incomes of $100,000
paying retail trade, leisure and hospitality and or More
40
other service (e.g., nail salons, etc.) sectors but NYC US
Percentage Share of Households
25
The employment trend is corroborated by
changes in wages and income. In 2021, of the 20
people that left the City in the prior year for other 15
parts of the U.S., the median wage was $60,000, 10
22 percent higher than for those that moved from
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
the City in 2019 (data not available in 2020). At Note: Data for 2020 is not available.
Sources: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
6 Report 15-2024
moved into the City from elsewhere in the U.S. This decrease was due to a 7 percent decline in
had a median wage of $51,000, 13.3 percent filers with AGI of less than $100,000 in 2021. This
higher than in the prior year. also more than offset the previous year’s gains
resulting in a drop to 3,240,282 filers, 4 percent
At the same time, the cost of living grew in the fewer than in 2019.
City amid an inflationary environment, with rents
exceeding record highs. 14 This may have forced At the same time, the number of filers with AGI
lower-income households out of the City. As a greater than $100,000 increased by 9.7 percent
result, in 2022, people that moved out of the City in 2021 to reach 804,612 filers. When compared
in the past year to other parts of the country had to the pre-pandemic 2019 level, this was 3.7
a median wage of $49,000, 18 percent lower than percent more.
those that moved in the prior year.
Population by Race and Ethnicity
A similar trend appears when looking at the
personal income tax returns of full-year New York When compared to the changes in the number of
City resident tax filers. 15 From tax liability year lower- and higher-income households, a similar
2019 to 2020, the number of City filers with post-pandemic trend can be seen when looking at
adjusted gross income (AGI) of over $100,000 population changes by race and ethnicity in the
decreased by 5.5 percent (42,383 filers), the first City.
decline in at least five years. At the same time, “In 2022, the people that moved
the number of filers with AGI of less than
into the City from elsewhere in
$100,000 increased by 3.3 percent (109,800
filers). This increase more than offset the decline
the U.S. had a median wage of
in the higher-income filers resulting in an overall
$51,000, 13.3 percent higher
increase of 1.6 percent to 4,218,143 City filers for than in the prior year… people
tax liability year 2020. that moved out of the City…to
other parts of the country had a
In the following year, the trend more than median wage of $49,000, 18
reversed as the total number of City filers percent lower than the prior
declined by 4.1 percent in tax liability year 2021 year.”
to 4,044,894 filers. As a result, the total number
of filers was 2.5 percent lower than the 2019 From April 2020 to July 2021, the White
level. population throughout the nation was the only
major group that declined in size, shrinking by 0.5
FIGURE 6 FIGURE 7
Population Change by Race from April 2020 Population Change by Race from July 2021
to July 2021 to July 2022
3
3 Total White Hispanic Black Asian
Percent Change
Percent Change
Report 15-2024 7
percent (see Figure 6). 16 During the same period, City within the next two years and were more
the City’s White population decreased by 5.9 likely to cite the cost of living as a reason for
percent, much faster than the City’s Black, leaving. 18
Hispanic and Asian populations, declines of 3.5
percent, 3.1 percent and 2.3 percent, When looking at these two periods together, from
respectively. These rates contrast with the prior April 2020 to June 2022, the populations of all
decade, when the population in all major racial major racial and ethnic groups declined after
and ethnic groups increased. Asian and Hispanic increasing the prior decade but at differing rates.
populations increased the most (25.3 and 9.2 Since April 2020, the City’s White and Black
percent, respectively) while the White and Black populations declined (6.7 percent and 6 percent,
populations had smaller increases (2.3 and 1.9 respectively) faster than the total population (5.3
percent, respectively). percent). During the same period, the Hispanic
and Asian populations declined at slower rates (5
In 2021, of those that moved out of the City in the percent and 2.5 percent, respectively).
prior year to other parts of the country, 42 percent
were White, higher than the 38 percent share in As a result, the White and Black shares declined
both 2019 and 2018. A possible explanation is (0.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively) while
that, according to the ACS, White people the Asian and Hispanic shares increased (0.4
generally have higher median household incomes percent and 0.1 percent, respectively). These
and are more likely to have jobs that allow for trends are similar to the prior decade as the
remote work. These dynamics may have White and Black shares also declined while the
increased the likelihood of White residents Asian and Hispanic shares increased.
leaving the City during the height of the “Since April 2020, the City’s
pandemic.
White and Black populations
In the following year, while the nation’s White declined (6.7 percent and 6
population was again the only group that percent, respectively) faster
declined, the City’s White population’s rate of than the total population (5.3
decline slowed to just 0.9 percent, less than half percent).”
the rates of the Black and Hispanic populations
(see Figure 7). Population by Age
Black people and Hispanic people have lower The City’s population has become older,
median household incomes and higher poverty especially after the pandemic as there were fewer
rates, which may have made them more likely to births, more families have left the City compared
leave the City once high inflation and large rent to before the pandemic, and a large cohort has
hikes occurred. 17 In 2022, of the people that entered retirement age.
moved out of the City, the non-White share was The share of households in the City with related
64 percent, higher than the 58 percent from the children of the householder has declined in every
prior year and the 62 percent from both 2019 and year since at least 2010. In 2022, out of all
2018. occupied households in the City, only 25.4
In the August 2020 Manhattan Institute/Siena percent of them had related children, down 5.9
College survey of City residents with income of percentage points from 2010. This drop was
more than $100,000, Black and Hispanic larger than the 3.9 percentage point drop that the
residents were more likely to say it is at least nation’s share experienced during the same time
somewhat likely that they will not be living in the period.
8 Report 15-2024
FIGURE 8 stable going back to 2010 as it has been about
Population Change by Age from April 2020 one quarter of the population every year.
to July 2022 Total <18 18-44 45-64 65+
7 In the decade before the pandemic, the
6
5 population of those 65 years and over grew by
Percent Change
4
3
2 35.8 percent, almost five times faster than the
1
0 total population (7.7 percent). This was similar to
-1
-2 the nation’s trend as the senior population
-3
-4
-5
increased by 35.4 percent while the total
-6
-7 population grew by 7.4 percent.
-8
New York City United States
From April 2020 to June 2022, the senior
Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates; OSC analysis
population was the only group that increased,
From April 2020 to July 2022, the under 18
growing by 3.3 percent, though slower than the
population decreased by 7.5 percent, much faster
nation’s increase of 6 percent. As a result, the
than the 1.5 percent decline in the nation’s under senior share of the total population increased by
18 population (see Figure 8). As a result, the
4.6 percentage points from 2010 to 16.7 percent
share of children of the City’s total population
in 2022. This was a bigger increase than the
declined to 20.1 percent in 2022, with the biggest nation’s senior population share, which grew by
annual drop (0.3 percentage points) occuring in
4.3 percentage points to 17.3 percent in 2022.
2022.
Outlook
During this period, the population from ages 18
The COVID-19 pandemic devastated the
through 44 declined at a faster rate of 7.6
percent, much worse than the nation, which had population of New York City, reversing substantial
population growth in the prior decade. In the
an increase of 0.9 percent. Similar to the child
years since, deaths from COVID-19 have
population, the City’s 18 through 44 population
share also declined every year since 2010, declined, contributing to population growth, but
births remain low, a challenge also seen
dropping by 3.1 percentage points from 2010 to
nationally. Net international migration more than
38.7 percent in 2022. This suggests that some
younger couples decided to start families and fully rebounded from pandemic restrictions and is
approaching levels prior to the implementation of
raise children outside of the City.
federal government restrictions. A continuation of
“The senior share of the total this trend would likely support continued
population increased by 4.6 population growth, as it has in years past. Net
percentage points from 2010 to domestic migration has also improved, although
16.7 percent in 2022. This was a remains negative as it has for many years. As the
bigger increase than the City’s economy has recovered with the lifting of
pandemic restrictions, employment has recovered
nation’s senior population across key industry sectors and employers have
share.” tightened remote work policies.
For those ages 45 through 64, the City as well as
As the City regains population, it looks different
the nation saw a population decline, though the
today than at the onset of the pandemic. While
City saw a more substantial 5.1 percent drop,
the number of wealthier households had returned
compared to the nation’s decrease of 1.7 percent.
to pre-pandemic levels by 2022 following
The City’s 45-64 population share has been very
temporary outmigration, that of lower-income
Report 15-2024 9
households had not, highlighting concerns over
the cost of living in New York City. Rents remain
elevated amid limited supply, contributing to an
overall high cost of living. In September 2023, a
Siena College poll found that 90 percent of
respondents with incomes less than $50,000
thought the cost of living in New York State was a
major problem compared to 78 percent of
respondents with incomes over $100,000. 19
10 Report 15-2024
ENDNOTES
1 U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 2010 and 2020.
2 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html.
3 New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, COVID-19 Data Totals, https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-
19-data-totals.page.
4 Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip Levine, “Early Evidence of Missing Births From the COVID-19 Baby Bust,” The Brookings
https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/NYC1115_Crosstabs_Rel2.pdf.
7 New York State Office of Children and Family Services, “Local Commissioner Memorandum,” March 11, 2020,
https://ocfs.ny.gov/main/policies/external/ocfs_2010/lcm/10-ocfs-lcm-
01%20child%20care%20market%20rates%20%202009-2011.pdf.
8 Office of the State Comptroller (OSC), New York City Industry Tracker: Office Sector,
https://www.osc.ny.gov/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/office.
9 Stuart Anderson, “A Review of Trump Immigration Policy,” Forbes, August 26, 2020,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/08/26/fact-check-and-review-of-trump-immigration-
policy/?sh=480f09b156c0.
10 U.S. Census Bureau, “Vintage 2022 Release Notes,” May 18, 2023, https://www2.census.gov/programs-
surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2020-2022/2022-est-relnotes.pdf.
11 Emily Badger, Robert Gebeloff and Josh Katz, “The Places Most Affected by Remote Workers’ Moves Around the Country,”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/09/realestate/manhattan-rent-nyc.html.
15 New York State Department of Taxation and Finance, Article 22 Personal Income Tax (PIT) Population Study Files, 2019-
2021.
16 When discussing White, Black and Asian populations, we are excluding those identifying as Hispanic.
17 OSC, New York State Rent Relief Update: Spotlight on New York City, Report 5-2024, July 2023,
https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/osdc/pdf/report-5-2024.pdf.
18 Siena College Research Institute, see note 6.
19 Siena College Research Institute, Siena College Research Poll September 10 - 13, 2023, https://scri.siena.edu/wp-
content/uploads/2023/09/SNY0923-Crosstabs.pdf.
Prepared by the Office of the State Deputy Comptroller for the City of New York
Wen Xi Wong, Principal Municipal Financial Analyst
Anita Yadavalli, Senior Economist and Director, Bureau of Tax and Economic Analysis