0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views11 pages

Report 15 2024

From April 2020 to July 2022, New York City experienced a 5.3% population decline, losing 468,293 residents, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced international migration. The natural increase in population was also affected by over 41,000 COVID-related deaths and fewer births, leading to a significant decrease in the number of young children. As the City adapts to these changes, understanding the shifting demographics is crucial for informing future policies to maintain its competitiveness and vibrancy.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views11 pages

Report 15 2024

From April 2020 to July 2022, New York City experienced a 5.3% population decline, losing 468,293 residents, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced international migration. The natural increase in population was also affected by over 41,000 COVID-related deaths and fewer births, leading to a significant decrease in the number of young children. As the City adapts to these changes, understanding the shifting demographics is crucial for informing future policies to maintain its competitiveness and vibrancy.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 11

NYC's Shifting Population:

The Latest Statistics


New York City, the largest city in the country by
Highlights population, is a diverse, dynamic place where
• From April of 2020 to July of 2022, the New people of all ages, races, ethnicities, nationalities
York City population declined by and incomes live and work together. The City
5.3 percent. This decline of 468,293 grew by 7.7 percent in the decade from 2010 to
residents, many of whom remained in New 2020, a pace that surpassed the nation. These
York or neighboring New Jersey, wiped out new New York City residents represented a total
almost three-quarters of the population population greater than that of Miami, Florida’s
gains from the prior decade. 442,241 residents in 2020.
• From April 2020 to June 2021, net As the decade drew to a close, disruption
international migration to the City fell just emerged in the City’s growth patterns, including
short of 21,000 people, almost a third lower
declines in families with children. Additionally,
than the level from the 12-month period
federal limitations on immigration beginning in
ending in June 2019 and almost two-thirds
lower than the June 2016 level. 2017 slowed international migration, a source of
historical population growth in the City. The
• The natural increase in the City’s population decline accelerated, fueled by the COVID-19
was smaller than normal due to over 41,000 pandemic, its wide-ranging impact and
COVID-related deaths from the onset of the devastating repercussions. Early in the pandemic,
pandemic through June 2022 and fewer
the demand for outdoor and additional living
births.
space amid the shift to remote work hollowed
• From 2019 to 2020, the number of filers central business districts across the nation,
with an adjusted gross income of less than including in New York City.
$100,000 increased by 3.3 percent
(109,800), more than offsetting the decline These changes initially left the City’s composition
(42,383) in the number of higher-income of residents older and less wealthy and raised the
filers earning greater than $100,000. share of the non-White population. As the
• From 2019 to 2021, the share of City pandemic eased and the cost of living soared,
households with incomes of $100,000 or Black and Hispanic households, many of them
more decreased for the first time in over a low-income, began to leave, offsetting the return
decade, to 35.2 percent. In the following of some households. Children, however, remain a
year, the share increased to a record high smaller portion of the City’s population.
of 39 percent.
As immigration to the City returns to historic
• In New York City, with fewer births since the norms and the economy continues to grow, so,
pandemic, the population of children too, will the City and its population. Ultimately,
younger than 5 years old declined by understanding these changes can help inform
12.5 percent from April 2020 to June 2022,
policy choices necessary to serve residents and
a much faster rate of decline than that of
keep the City competitive and dynamic.
the adult population (4.7 percent).

Report 15-2024 | December 2023 1


Pandemic Impact on the City’s measures the number of people moving to the
Total Population City from outside the country minus those leaving
In the decade before the pandemic, April 1, 2010 the City to another country. Total net migration of
to April 1, 2020, New York City’s population 5,420 accounted for a small share of the City’s
increased by 7.7 percent, three times greater overall population change from 2010 to 2020
than the growth from the prior decade (2.1 because positive net international migration was
percent; see Figure 1). 1 The City’s population almost totally offset by negative net domestic
growth was greater than that of the nation (7.4 migration.
percent) and the State (4.2 percent).
Even though the City’s population increased from
Growth in the City was led by Brooklyn and 2010 to 2020, both the natural increase and net
Queens, where the population increased by 9.2 migration slowed during the decade. The
percent and 7.8 percent, respectively. Manhattan, pandemic accelerated these trends, leading to
the Bronx and Staten Island each grew by more population loss in the following two years.
than 5 percent. The population in every borough
“From April 1, 2010 to April 1,
grew at a faster pace than during the prior
decade.
2020, New York City’s
population increased by 7.7
One factor that determines the overall change in percent, three times greater
population is the natural increase, the number of than the growth from the prior
births less the number of deaths. From 2010 to decade…[but the pandemic]
2020, the natural increase totaled 623,637 wiped out almost three-
people, accounting for 99 percent of the total quarters of the population
population increase (629,057) during this period. gains.”
The rest of the population change is attributed to The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to an
net migration, which is the total of net domestic abrupt change in the City’s population. From
and net international migration. Net domestic April 2020 to July 2022, the population declined
migration measures the number of people moving by 5.3 percent (468,293 residents), wiping out
to New York City from another area within the almost three-quarters of the population gains
nation minus those leaving the City to other parts from the prior decade. 2 As the City was the initial
of the country. Net international migration epicenter of the pandemic nationally, the

FIGURE 1
Total Population Before and After Pandemic
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2022
Region 2000 2010 2020 2022
% Change % Change % Change
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 9.7% 331,449,520 7.4% 333,287,557 0.6%
New York State 18,976,457 19,378,102 2.1% 20,201,230 4.2% 19,677,151 -2.6%
New York City 8,008,278 8,175,133 2.1% 8,804,190 7.7% 8,335,897 -5.3%
Bronx 1,332,650 1,385,108 3.9% 1,472,654 6.3% 1,379,946 -6.3%
Brooklyn 2,465,326 2,504,700 1.6% 2,736,074 9.2% 2,590,516 -5.3%
Manhattan 1,537,195 1,585,873 3.2% 1,694,251 6.8% 1,596,273 -5.8%
Queens 2,229,379 2,230,722 0.1% 2,405,464 7.8% 2,278,029 -5.3%
Staten Island 443,728 468,730 5.6% 495,747 5.8% 491,133 -0.9%
Sources: U.S Census Population Estimates; OSC analysis

2 Report 15-2024
population decline was much worse than in the nation experienced during the same period. While
State, which declined by 2.6 percent, and in the the City’s natural increase improved in the 12
nation, whose population increased by 0.6 months after June 2021, it was still 32 percent
percent. lower than the 2019 increase. This rate was still
better than the nation, which remained 73 percent
Among the City’s boroughs, the Bronx had the below its 2019 increase.
largest population decline, shrinking by 6.3
percent. Most other boroughs decreased by over This depressed level of natural increase resulted
five percent each except for Staten Island, whose from the over 41,000 COVID-related deaths in the
population declined by just 0.9 percent. City through July 2022. 3 At the same time, the
public health crisis and the economic turmoil that
“The population of children followed led to fewer births. 4 Compared to the
younger than 5 years old number of births from July 2018 to June 2019, the
declined by 12.5 percent from number of births in July 2020 through June 2021
April 2020 to June 2022, a much was 11 percent lower, dropping to 95,037. In the
faster rate of decline than that following year, the number increased to 97,939,
of the adult population (4.7 still 8.3 percent lower than the 2019 level.
percent).”
In New York City, with fewer births since the
According to data from the U.S. Census, the pandemic, the population of children younger
decline in the City’s total population since April of than 5 years old declined by 12.5 percent from
2020 is due to the relatively large number of April 2020 to June 2022, a much faster rate of
residents leaving the City for other parts of the decline than that of the adult (ages 18 and over)
country, which is not being offset fully by gains in population (4.7 percent).
natural increase and net international migration.
Even with the large post-pandemic decline, the
Fewer Births and More Deaths natural increase in the City stayed positive, with a
From April 2020 to June 2021, the natural total cumulative increase of 48,460 people from
increase in the City was 65 percent lower than April 2020 to June 2022.
the increase that occurred from July 2018 to June
2019, which had already been the lowest during An Increasing Outflow of
the prior decade (see Figure 2). However, this Residents to Other Parts of U.S.
was better than the 80 percent drop that the Outflow Started Long Before the Pandemic
FIGURE 2 The outflow of residents from New York City to
Natural Increase (Births Minus Deaths) elsewhere across the nation has been observed
80 1,600
NYC (left axis) US (right axis) in every year since the data series began in 1990.
70 1,400
The overall population only increased before the
Thousands of People

Thousands of People

60 1,200
pandemic because of positive net international
50 1,000
migration and natural increase. As more and
40 800
more residents left the City, this outflow
30 600
eventually outweighed changes in international
20 400
migration and natural increase, resulting in the
10 200
City’s post-pandemic population decline.
0 0
From July 2010 through June 2011, net domestic
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates


migration was negative 48,668 people (see

Report 15-2024 3
FIGURE 3 Another reason that may have driven residents to
New York City Net Domestic Migration leave is the difficulty of raising a family in the City.
0 In the 2015 survey, 44 percent of residents said
-50 the City was either a fair or poor place to raise
Thousands of People

-100 children. Likely reasons for this response are lack


-150 of space resulting from the City’s high population
-200 density and the City having the highest child care
-250
costs in the State. 7 Many residents may be
leaving the City to start or grow a family.
-300

-350 A sign of reduced family formation in the City is


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
that from 2010 to 2020, the population of young
Note: Year denotes 12-month period ending in June 30 of that year. children (younger than 5) increased by just 4.4
Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates
percent, less than half the rate of adults (9.1
Figure 3). By June 2019, the net domestic percent). Many families with children also likely
migration in the prior 12 months was negative left the City as the total child population (younger
131,367 people. than 18) in the City had an even slower growth
There are many factors that may have driven rate of 2.7 percent during this period.
residents to move out of the City during this time, Pandemic Led to Faster Rate of Outflow
but the persistent high cost of living was likely
one of them. 5 In a 2015 New York Times/Siena While there are many reasons residents chose to
College Poll, 51 percent of City residents said leave the City even before the pandemic, others
they were just getting by financially or finding it remained because their employment was tied to
difficult or very difficult. In the same survey, 17 the City, limiting where they could live to the
percent said that at some point over the last year, commuter shed. However, with the onset of the
they did not have enough money to pay for pandemic, many employers implemented work-
adequate shelter or housing. 6 from-home policies for their employees, who tend
to earn higher incomes. Even now, years after the
These figures varied substantially by income pandemic began, some form of remote work
range but were felt across the spectrum, with 72 policies are the norm for many workers as
percent of residents earning $50,000 or less evidenced by an in-office rate of around 50
responding as just getting by or finding it difficult, percent. 8 Fully remote workers were able to move
versus 17 percent for those earning $100,000 or anywhere outside the City while even partially
more. Households with children at home (57 remote policies allowed workers to live farther
percent) were also more likely to respond as just away from their City job.
getting by or finding it difficult.
The pandemic and the resulting lockdowns and
“The number of people that left mandates intensified the outward migration from
the City from 2020 to 2021 New York City to elsewhere within the nation and
increased by 35 percent lowered the domestic migration into the City.
compared to those that moved According to Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
out from 2018 to 2019…the migration data, the number of people that left the
number that moved into the City from 2020 to 2021 increased by 35 percent
City was 10 percent lower.” compared to those that moved out from 2018 to
2019. At the same time, the number of people
that moved into the City was 10 percent lower. Of

4 Report 15-2024
the people that left the City, the top three FIGURE 4
destination states were other parts of New York Net International Migration
State (28.9 percent), New Jersey (18 percent), 70
NYC (left axis) US (right axis)
1,400

and Florida (9.4 percent). 60 1,200

Thousands of People

Thousands of People
50 1,000
Similar to the trend from the IRS data, U.S. 40 800
Census data showed that from July 2020 to June
30 600
2021, the domestic outflow of residents
20 400
outnumbered the inflow by 313,358 people, more
10 200
than double (139 percent) the amount from the
0 0
12-month period ending in June 2019 and over

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022
six times the amount from a decade ago.
Note: Year denotes 12-month period ending in June 30 of that year. Data before
2020 uses old methodology which produced lower net international migration totals.
In the following 12 months, many of the higher- Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates
income individuals that left the City returned to
work in person as restaurants, cultural
institutions, Broadway shows and many other “Like the rest of the country,
forms of entertainment also opened back up. As a the City’s inflow of international
result, the gap between those leaving and those migrants was slowing before
moving in improved by almost a third to 216,031, the pandemic and worsened as
though this is still 64 percent higher than the 2019 the pandemic stopped almost
level.
all international travel.”
Inflow of International Migrants After the onset of the pandemic, from April 2020
Slows to June 2021, net international migration fell to
The immigrant population is a vital part of the City 20,978 people, almost a third lower than the level
as they made up 36.8 percent of the total from the 12-month period ending in June 2019
population in 2022. Shares in some and almost two-thirds lower than the June 2016
neighborhoods such as Jackson Heights and level. This large decline in immigrants is likely
Flushing exceeded 50 percent. Like the rest of due to restrictions on international travel that
the country, the City’s inflow of international were implemented by governments all over the
migrants was slowing before the pandemic and world to mitigate the spread of the disease. The
worsened as the pandemic stopped almost all drop is likely to have been worse because post-
international travel. pandemic international migration data (2021 and
In the decade prior to the pandemic, international later) was raised due to a change in methodology
from the U.S Census. 10
migration declined in the City, from a net of
63,067 people in the 12-month period ending in By June 2022, as COVID-19 subsided and
June 2011 to a net of 30,610 people in the period traveling restrictions were lifted, net international
ending in June 2019 (see Figure 4). However, the migration more than doubled (172 percent) from
decline was not gradual. Instead, a steep drop the prior year to 54,307 people, the highest level
started in the 12-month period ending in June since the 12-month period ending June 2016. At
2017, when the federal government made the same time, the nation saw an increase of 169
immigration into the U.S. more restrictive, and net percent to reach a level close to that in 2016.
international migration dropped by 22 percent
from the prior year to 48,030 people. 9

Report 15-2024 5
Changes to the Composition of the same time, the median household income in
the City’s Population the City decreased by 2 percent from 2019 to
With such a large change to the overall 2021.
population since the pandemic, the composition “After the onset of the
of the City’s population has also changed. In the pandemic, the residents that
first year after the pandemic, many high-income left were more likely to be
households left for other parts of the country but remote workers…37 percent of
in the following year, the share of low-income those employed worked in the
households dropped even more, resulting in a high-paying sectors of
lower share of low-income households in the City. business services, financial
The City has also become more diverse as the activities and information.”
share of the non-White population has increased,
which is similar to nationwide trends. Another As a result, from 2019 to 2021, according to the
trend that occurred in the City as well as in the ACS, the share of households in the City with
nation is the aging of the population as the incomes of $100,000 or more decreased for the
number of seniors (ages 65 and over) increased first time in over a decade, declining by 0.8
much faster than the rest of the total population. percentage points to 35.2 percent (see Figure 5).
During the same period, the nation had the
Household Incomes opposite trend as the share of households with
After the onset of the pandemic, the residents incomes of $100,000 or more continued to
that left were more likely to be remote workers. 11 increase.
Remote workers also tend to have higher However, in the following year, as the dangers of
incomes, so higher-income households were the pandemic subsided and restrictions and
more likely to have moved. 12 lockdowns were lifted, many employers changed
According to the American Community Survey remote work policies to some form of hybrid
(ACS), in 2021, of the people from the City that schedules, bringing some employees back into
moved to other parts of the country in the past the office. 13 As a result, from 2021 to 2022, the
year, 37 percent of those employed worked in the share of City households with incomes of
high-paying sectors of business services, $100,000 or more increased by 3.7 percentage
financial activities and information even though points, the most in at least a decade, to reach 39
only 28 percent of employed City residents percent, a record high. In 2022, the people that
worked in these sectors. In contrast, 22 percent FIGURE 5
of employed City residents worked in the lower- Share of Households with Incomes of $100,000
paying retail trade, leisure and hospitality and or More
40
other service (e.g., nail salons, etc.) sectors but NYC US
Percentage Share of Households

only 19 percent of those that moved away from 35

the City worked in these sectors. 30

25
The employment trend is corroborated by
changes in wages and income. In 2021, of the 20

people that left the City in the prior year for other 15
parts of the U.S., the median wage was $60,000, 10
22 percent higher than for those that moved from
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

the City in 2019 (data not available in 2020). At Note: Data for 2020 is not available.
Sources: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

6 Report 15-2024
moved into the City from elsewhere in the U.S. This decrease was due to a 7 percent decline in
had a median wage of $51,000, 13.3 percent filers with AGI of less than $100,000 in 2021. This
higher than in the prior year. also more than offset the previous year’s gains
resulting in a drop to 3,240,282 filers, 4 percent
At the same time, the cost of living grew in the fewer than in 2019.
City amid an inflationary environment, with rents
exceeding record highs. 14 This may have forced At the same time, the number of filers with AGI
lower-income households out of the City. As a greater than $100,000 increased by 9.7 percent
result, in 2022, people that moved out of the City in 2021 to reach 804,612 filers. When compared
in the past year to other parts of the country had to the pre-pandemic 2019 level, this was 3.7
a median wage of $49,000, 18 percent lower than percent more.
those that moved in the prior year.
Population by Race and Ethnicity
A similar trend appears when looking at the
personal income tax returns of full-year New York When compared to the changes in the number of
City resident tax filers. 15 From tax liability year lower- and higher-income households, a similar
2019 to 2020, the number of City filers with post-pandemic trend can be seen when looking at
adjusted gross income (AGI) of over $100,000 population changes by race and ethnicity in the
decreased by 5.5 percent (42,383 filers), the first City.
decline in at least five years. At the same time, “In 2022, the people that moved
the number of filers with AGI of less than
into the City from elsewhere in
$100,000 increased by 3.3 percent (109,800
filers). This increase more than offset the decline
the U.S. had a median wage of
in the higher-income filers resulting in an overall
$51,000, 13.3 percent higher
increase of 1.6 percent to 4,218,143 City filers for than in the prior year… people
tax liability year 2020. that moved out of the City…to
other parts of the country had a
In the following year, the trend more than median wage of $49,000, 18
reversed as the total number of City filers percent lower than the prior
declined by 4.1 percent in tax liability year 2021 year.”
to 4,044,894 filers. As a result, the total number
of filers was 2.5 percent lower than the 2019 From April 2020 to July 2021, the White
level. population throughout the nation was the only
major group that declined in size, shrinking by 0.5
FIGURE 6 FIGURE 7
Population Change by Race from April 2020 Population Change by Race from July 2021
to July 2021 to July 2022
3
3 Total White Hispanic Black Asian
Percent Change
Percent Change

Total White Hispanic Black Asian 2


2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
-4 -4
-5 -5
-6 -6
New York City United States New York City United States
Note: White, Black and Asian population calculations exclude Hispanics Note: White, Black and Asian population calculations exclude Hispanics
Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates; OSC analysis Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates; OSC analysis

Report 15-2024 7
percent (see Figure 6). 16 During the same period, City within the next two years and were more
the City’s White population decreased by 5.9 likely to cite the cost of living as a reason for
percent, much faster than the City’s Black, leaving. 18
Hispanic and Asian populations, declines of 3.5
percent, 3.1 percent and 2.3 percent, When looking at these two periods together, from
respectively. These rates contrast with the prior April 2020 to June 2022, the populations of all
decade, when the population in all major racial major racial and ethnic groups declined after
and ethnic groups increased. Asian and Hispanic increasing the prior decade but at differing rates.
populations increased the most (25.3 and 9.2 Since April 2020, the City’s White and Black
percent, respectively) while the White and Black populations declined (6.7 percent and 6 percent,
populations had smaller increases (2.3 and 1.9 respectively) faster than the total population (5.3
percent, respectively). percent). During the same period, the Hispanic
and Asian populations declined at slower rates (5
In 2021, of those that moved out of the City in the percent and 2.5 percent, respectively).
prior year to other parts of the country, 42 percent
were White, higher than the 38 percent share in As a result, the White and Black shares declined
both 2019 and 2018. A possible explanation is (0.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively) while
that, according to the ACS, White people the Asian and Hispanic shares increased (0.4
generally have higher median household incomes percent and 0.1 percent, respectively). These
and are more likely to have jobs that allow for trends are similar to the prior decade as the
remote work. These dynamics may have White and Black shares also declined while the
increased the likelihood of White residents Asian and Hispanic shares increased.
leaving the City during the height of the “Since April 2020, the City’s
pandemic.
White and Black populations
In the following year, while the nation’s White declined (6.7 percent and 6
population was again the only group that percent, respectively) faster
declined, the City’s White population’s rate of than the total population (5.3
decline slowed to just 0.9 percent, less than half percent).”
the rates of the Black and Hispanic populations
(see Figure 7). Population by Age

Black people and Hispanic people have lower The City’s population has become older,
median household incomes and higher poverty especially after the pandemic as there were fewer
rates, which may have made them more likely to births, more families have left the City compared
leave the City once high inflation and large rent to before the pandemic, and a large cohort has
hikes occurred. 17 In 2022, of the people that entered retirement age.
moved out of the City, the non-White share was The share of households in the City with related
64 percent, higher than the 58 percent from the children of the householder has declined in every
prior year and the 62 percent from both 2019 and year since at least 2010. In 2022, out of all
2018. occupied households in the City, only 25.4
In the August 2020 Manhattan Institute/Siena percent of them had related children, down 5.9
College survey of City residents with income of percentage points from 2010. This drop was
more than $100,000, Black and Hispanic larger than the 3.9 percentage point drop that the
residents were more likely to say it is at least nation’s share experienced during the same time
somewhat likely that they will not be living in the period.

8 Report 15-2024
FIGURE 8 stable going back to 2010 as it has been about
Population Change by Age from April 2020 one quarter of the population every year.
to July 2022 Total <18 18-44 45-64 65+
7 In the decade before the pandemic, the
6
5 population of those 65 years and over grew by
Percent Change

4
3
2 35.8 percent, almost five times faster than the
1
0 total population (7.7 percent). This was similar to
-1
-2 the nation’s trend as the senior population
-3
-4
-5
increased by 35.4 percent while the total
-6
-7 population grew by 7.4 percent.
-8
New York City United States
From April 2020 to June 2022, the senior
Sources: U.S. Census, Population Estimates; OSC analysis
population was the only group that increased,
From April 2020 to July 2022, the under 18
growing by 3.3 percent, though slower than the
population decreased by 7.5 percent, much faster
nation’s increase of 6 percent. As a result, the
than the 1.5 percent decline in the nation’s under senior share of the total population increased by
18 population (see Figure 8). As a result, the
4.6 percentage points from 2010 to 16.7 percent
share of children of the City’s total population
in 2022. This was a bigger increase than the
declined to 20.1 percent in 2022, with the biggest nation’s senior population share, which grew by
annual drop (0.3 percentage points) occuring in
4.3 percentage points to 17.3 percent in 2022.
2022.
Outlook
During this period, the population from ages 18
The COVID-19 pandemic devastated the
through 44 declined at a faster rate of 7.6
percent, much worse than the nation, which had population of New York City, reversing substantial
population growth in the prior decade. In the
an increase of 0.9 percent. Similar to the child
years since, deaths from COVID-19 have
population, the City’s 18 through 44 population
share also declined every year since 2010, declined, contributing to population growth, but
births remain low, a challenge also seen
dropping by 3.1 percentage points from 2010 to
nationally. Net international migration more than
38.7 percent in 2022. This suggests that some
younger couples decided to start families and fully rebounded from pandemic restrictions and is
approaching levels prior to the implementation of
raise children outside of the City.
federal government restrictions. A continuation of
“The senior share of the total this trend would likely support continued
population increased by 4.6 population growth, as it has in years past. Net
percentage points from 2010 to domestic migration has also improved, although
16.7 percent in 2022. This was a remains negative as it has for many years. As the
bigger increase than the City’s economy has recovered with the lifting of
pandemic restrictions, employment has recovered
nation’s senior population across key industry sectors and employers have
share.” tightened remote work policies.
For those ages 45 through 64, the City as well as
As the City regains population, it looks different
the nation saw a population decline, though the
today than at the onset of the pandemic. While
City saw a more substantial 5.1 percent drop,
the number of wealthier households had returned
compared to the nation’s decrease of 1.7 percent.
to pre-pandemic levels by 2022 following
The City’s 45-64 population share has been very
temporary outmigration, that of lower-income

Report 15-2024 9
households had not, highlighting concerns over
the cost of living in New York City. Rents remain
elevated amid limited supply, contributing to an
overall high cost of living. In September 2023, a
Siena College poll found that 90 percent of
respondents with incomes less than $50,000
thought the cost of living in New York State was a
major problem compared to 78 percent of
respondents with incomes over $100,000. 19

The aging population is at once a national and


local challenge. While the share of senior citizens
nationally is currently larger than that locally, the
citywide share grew more over the last decade,
suggesting the City should continue to monitor
this group and respond to health care and
housing needs amid rising costs. Additionally,
families with children left the City at a greater rate
than those nationally during the pandemic,
suggesting the City and the State have more to
do to reduce childcare costs and provide further
opportunities for working- and middle-class
families that want to raise their children here.

10 Report 15-2024
ENDNOTES
1 U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 2010 and 2020.
2 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html.
3 New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, COVID-19 Data Totals, https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-

19-data-totals.page.
4 Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip Levine, “Early Evidence of Missing Births From the COVID-19 Baby Bust,” The Brookings

Institute, December 13, 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/early-evidence-of-missing-births-from-the-covid-19-baby-


bust/.
5 Annie Kucklick and Lisa Manzer, “Overlooked and Undercounted: Struggling to Make Ends Meet in New York City 2023,”

Center for Women’s Welfare, April 2023, https://issuu.com/uwnyc/docs/nyctcl2023?fr=sNDgwMjQ2OTU4Ng.


6 Siena College Research Institute, The New York Times/Siena College Research Poll October 29- November 11, 2015,

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/NYC1115_Crosstabs_Rel2.pdf.
7 New York State Office of Children and Family Services, “Local Commissioner Memorandum,” March 11, 2020,

https://ocfs.ny.gov/main/policies/external/ocfs_2010/lcm/10-ocfs-lcm-
01%20child%20care%20market%20rates%20%202009-2011.pdf.
8 Office of the State Comptroller (OSC), New York City Industry Tracker: Office Sector,

https://www.osc.ny.gov/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/office.
9 Stuart Anderson, “A Review of Trump Immigration Policy,” Forbes, August 26, 2020,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/08/26/fact-check-and-review-of-trump-immigration-
policy/?sh=480f09b156c0.
10 U.S. Census Bureau, “Vintage 2022 Release Notes,” May 18, 2023, https://www2.census.gov/programs-

surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2020-2022/2022-est-relnotes.pdf.
11 Emily Badger, Robert Gebeloff and Josh Katz, “The Places Most Affected by Remote Workers’ Moves Around the Country,”

The New York Times, June 17, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/17/upshot/17migration-patterns-


movers.html.
12 Ibid.
13 OSC, see note 8.
14 Anna P. Kambhampaty, “Median Rent in Manhattan Reaches a New High,” The New York Times, June 9, 2022,

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/09/realestate/manhattan-rent-nyc.html.
15 New York State Department of Taxation and Finance, Article 22 Personal Income Tax (PIT) Population Study Files, 2019-

2021.
16 When discussing White, Black and Asian populations, we are excluding those identifying as Hispanic.
17 OSC, New York State Rent Relief Update: Spotlight on New York City, Report 5-2024, July 2023,

https://www.osc.ny.gov/files/reports/osdc/pdf/report-5-2024.pdf.
18 Siena College Research Institute, see note 6.
19 Siena College Research Institute, Siena College Research Poll September 10 - 13, 2023, https://scri.siena.edu/wp-

content/uploads/2023/09/SNY0923-Crosstabs.pdf.

Prepared by the Office of the State Deputy Comptroller for the City of New York
Wen Xi Wong, Principal Municipal Financial Analyst
Anita Yadavalli, Senior Economist and Director, Bureau of Tax and Economic Analysis

Office of the New York State Comptroller


110 State Street, Albany, NY 12236
(518) 474-4044 www.osc.state.ny.us

You might also like