How climate change is affecting Pakistan’s weather

patterns
Assignment 3

Submitted by: Bilal Zahoor

Subject: ESE-820
Program: MS Energy System Engineering

Submitted to: Dr Hassan

Department of Energy Systems Engineering

USPCAS-E
National University of Sciences and
Technology H-12 Islamabad
Introduction
Climate change, broadly defined as long-term shifts in global or regional climate patterns, has
emerged as one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. While Earth has undergone
climate fluctuations over millennia, the current trajectory is alarming due to its accelerated pace
and clear link to human activity. The root driver is the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in
the atmosphere—primarily carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O)—
emitted from industrial processes, deforestation, and particularly the combustion of fossil fuels.
These gases trap solar radiation, intensifying the greenhouse effect and leading to global
warming. The resulting temperature rise sets off a chain reaction: shifting weather patterns, sea
level rise, increased frequency of natural disasters, and severe impacts on ecosystems and
biodiversity. Though the consequences are global, developing nations with limited resources and
fragile infrastructure, such as Pakistan, bear a disproportionate burden.

Climate change is deeply transforming Pakistan's climatic patterns, rendering the nation more
susceptible to climatic extremes and environmental uncertainty. Historically characterized by
well-defined seasonal patterns and an easily predictable monsoon regime, the climate of Pakistan
has grown unstable with increasing global temperatures and a changing atmospheric regime. The
nation has seen alarming transformations over the last few decades: more intense and recurrent
heatwaves, unprecedented torrential rains, extended dry spells, melting glaciers in the north, and
altered monsoon timings.

The glaciers in the Himalayas, which supply Pakistan's rivers through the Indus River system,
are melting fast because of increasing temperatures. This poses a threat to water security in the
long term and heightens the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). At the same time, the
monsoon, a lifeblood for agriculture, has become abbreviated and unpredictable, tending to bring
either heavy rainfall in an abbreviated period (resulting in floods) or less than seasonal averages
(resulting in drought).

Urban regions, especially Karachi and Lahore, experience record-breaking heatwaves, whereas
rural populations are hit by water shortage and lower agricultural production. These
developments not only affect public health and food security but also pin Pakistan's economy
and infrastructure to the wall. Pakistan ranks among the top countries affected by climate-related
disasters each year, as per the Global Climate Risk Index, even though it contributes less than
1% towards greenhouse gas emissions globally.
These nascent trends require immediate adjustment and resilience measures, such as climate-
resilient agriculture, water management, and disaster risk reduction, to counter the increasing
effects of a changing planet on Pakistan's vulnerable climate system.
Pakistan’s Climate Vulnerability
Despite contributing just 0.88% to global GHG emissions, Pakistan consistently ranks among the
top five countries most vulnerable to climate change according to the Global Climate Risk Index.
This paradox highlights a global injustice: those least responsible for the crisis suffer the most.
Pakistan's vulnerability stems from its geographic location, socio-economic challenges,
overdependence on climate-sensitive sectors (like agriculture and water), and inadequate
adaptive capacity. The country has an arid to semi-arid climate in most regions, meaning it
already faces water scarcity and extreme weather variability. Coupled with rapid urbanization,
population growth, and weak environmental regulations, the risks are compounded.

Shifting Weather Patterns in Pakistan

 Rising Temperatures
Pakistan has witnessed a consistent increase in average temperatures over recent decades.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, annual temperatures have risen by
approximately 0.6°C since the early 1900s. This trend is more pronounced in urban centers like
Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad, where the "urban heat island effect" further intensifies
temperatures due to concrete infrastructure and reduced vegetation.
Rising temperatures are not only a matter of discomfort. They result in increased energy demand
(especially for cooling), elevated health risks such as heat strokes and respiratory illnesses, and
reduced productivity, especially for outdoor laborers. Additionally, higher temperatures
exacerbate evaporation rates, thereby reducing surface water availability.
  Erratic Rainfall and Monsoons
One of the most significant impacts of climate change in Pakistan is the increasing
unpredictability of rainfall patterns. The monsoon season, traditionally spanning from July to
September, has become irregular in both timing and intensity. Rainfall is now characterized by
sudden, extreme downpours or extended dry spells.
This unpredictability disrupts agricultural cycles, floods urban drainage systems, and contributes
to both droughts and flash floods. The shift also affects groundwater recharge, with long-term
consequences for water availability.

Melting Glaciers and Water Security

 Glacier Retreat in the North
The northern regions of Pakistan are home to some of the world’s largest non-polar glaciers,
such as the Baltoro, Batura, and Hispar. These glaciers feed the Indus River System, which
sustains over 220 million people and supports agriculture, industry, and hydropower.
However, due to rising temperatures, these glaciers are retreating at unprecedented rates.
Research by ICIMOD and other organizations shows that many glaciers in the Hindu Kush-
Himalayan region are losing mass rapidly, with some retreating up to 15-20 meters per year. This
has serious implications: initially, glacial melt increases river flows, raising the risk of floods,
but over time, it leads to reduced flow and chronic water shortages.
  Urban Water Stress
Urban areas in Pakistan already experience water scarcity, and climate change is making it
worse. In cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, as much as 70% of the population faces
water shortages during peak summer months. The reduced inflow from glaciers, combined with
erratic rainfall and mismanagement of water resources, exacerbates the crisis.
Additionally, outdated infrastructure and high rates of water loss due to leakage further strain
supply systems. The increasing demand, coupled with a diminishing supply, poses a looming
threat to urban water security.
Increasing Frequency of Extreme Weather Events
Pakistan has faced a dramatic rise in extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent,
severe, and unpredictable due to climate change.
 The 2010 floods remain one of the worst natural disasters in the country’s history,
affecting over 33 million people and causing economic losses exceeding $30 billion.
 The 2022 floods were similarly catastrophic, submerging nearly 20% of the country and
displacing millions.
 Heatwaves, particularly in 2015 and 2022, pushed temperatures above 49°C. The 2015
heatwave in Karachi alone led to over 1,200 deaths in a matter of days.
 Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are increasing due to accelerated glacier melt.
These sudden floods, caused by the bursting of glacial lakes, pose deadly risks to
communities in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral.
 Cyclones, like Cyclone Tauktae, have impacted the coastal belts of Sindh and
Balochistan, damaging infrastructure and displacing thousands.
Such disasters not only cause immediate loss of life and property but also have long-term socio-
economic effects, including displacement, disease outbreaks, and food insecurity.

Agriculture, Droughts, and Food Security

Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, employing over 35% of the workforce and
contributing around 20% to GDP. However, it is highly climate-sensitive and already feeling the
impact of rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and water scarcity.
 Droughts have become increasingly common, particularly in arid regions like
Tharparkar, Sindh, and parts of Balochistan. Prolonged dry periods lead to crop failure,
livestock deaths, and forced migration.

 The reduction in Indus River flow is particularly concerning. With less glacier-fed
 water and unstable monsoon contributions, irrigation systems are under strain, directly
threatening food production.

 Crop yield decline is becoming evident in staples like wheat and rice. Changes in
sowing and harvesting seasons, increased pest attacks, and higher input costs (due to
increased irrigation needs) are compounding the problem.
These challenges put national food security at risk and raise the specter of inflation, poverty, and
social unrest if not addressed promptly.

Conclusion and Way Forward

Pakistan is already living the realities of climate change. Its weather is becoming more
unpredictable, its water supplies more precarious, and its people more vulnerable to natural
disasters. While adaptation and mitigation require significant investment, they are no longer
optional—they are essential.
Mitigation must include a shift toward renewable energy, reforestation, and improved public
transportation to cut emissions. Adaptation, on the other hand, requires strengthening early
warning systems, modernizing infrastructure, and implementing water conservation techniques.
Education and community awareness are also vital. Citizens must understand how their daily
actions, from water use to waste disposal, tie into the broader climate picture. Policymakers,
meanwhile, must integrate climate risk into national development planning and prioritize climate
finance.