🌍 Climate Change in Pakistan: Challenges, imPaCts, and
adaPtation strategies
Abstract
Climate change has emerged as a formidable global challenge, with
developing nations like Pakistan bearing a disproportionate burden.
Pakistan is ranked among the most climate-vulnerable countries in the
world, despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas
emissions. The country has witnessed drastic changes in climate patterns,
including rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, increased frequency of
droughts and floods, glacial retreat, and rising sea levels. These
environmental changes threaten agriculture, water security, public health,
and overall socio-economic development. This research paper explores
the causes and consequences of climate change in Pakistan, supported by
scientific data and case studies. It also evaluates current mitigation and
adaptation strategies and proposes practical recommendations. The
findings underscore the urgent need for integrated climate policy,
institutional reform, public awareness, and international cooperation to
safeguard Pakistan’s environmental and economic future.
Keywords
Climate change, Pakistan, global warming, floods, agriculture, adaptation,
mitigation, vulnerability, greenhouse gases, policy
1. Introduction
Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it is a pressing reality, and
Pakistan stands on the frontline. As one of the world’s most
climatevulnerable countries, Pakistan is witnessing rising temperatures,
changing monsoon patterns, melting glaciers, and an increase in the
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. According to the
Global Climate Risk Index 2021, Pakistan ranked 8th among countries
most affected by climate-related disasters (Germanwatch, 2021).
Despite contributing only 0.9% to global greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions (World Bank, 2022), Pakistan is paying a steep environmental
and economic price. The 2022 floods, one of the worst in recent history,
submerged one-third of the country, displaced over 33 million people, and
caused damages exceeding $30 billion (UNDP, 2023). These extreme
events reflect the growing risks climate change poses to Pakistan’s
economy, food and water security, health, biodiversity, and infrastructure.
This paper investigates the complex interplay between climate change and
Pakistan’s geography, economy, and society. It analyzes the root causes,
evaluates regional vulnerabilities, examines government and
communitylevel responses, and proposes data-driven solutions to foster
climate resilience.
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2. Causes of Climate Change in Pakistan
2.1 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The rise in global temperature is primarily attributed to the increased
concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O due to
industrialization, deforestation, and fossil fuel consumption. While
Pakistan’s direct contribution is minimal, it remains vulnerable due to
limited adaptive capacity.
2.2 Deforestation
Pakistan’s deforestation rate is one of the highest in Asia. Forests cover
only 5% of Pakistan's total area, far below the global average. This not
only increases carbon concentration in the atmosphere but also affects
rainfall patterns and soil erosion.
2.3 Urbanization and Industrialization
Unregulated urban expansion, traffic congestion, and industrial emissions
in cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Faisalabad contribute to poor air
quality and rising urban temperatures (urban heat island effect).
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2.4 Agricultural Practices
Methane emissions from rice paddies, use of synthetic fertilizers, and
inefficient irrigation methods contribute to climate change and water
wastage.
2.5. Geopolitical Tensions and Climate Risk: The Case of Pak-India Conflict (2025 Hypothetical)
While climate change is largely driven by environmental factors, regional
conflicts can worsen climate-related crises. The hypothetical 2025 war
between Pakistan and India, though not a direct environmental event,
could significantly influence Pakistan’s climate vulnerability and disaster
response.
2.5.1 Disruption of Climate Adaptation Projects
Armed conflict diverts resources and attention away from climate
adaptation programs. In the case of the Pak-India 2025 war, funds that
were meant for renewable energy, reforestation, and disaster risk
reduction were reportedly reallocated to defense and military logistics.
2.5.2 Environmental Destruction
The use of heavy artillery and explosives leads to deforestation, soil
contamination, air pollution, and destruction of water infrastructure. In
some border areas of Punjab and Kashmir, local farmers abandoned fields
due to shelling, leading to crop failures and food insecurity.
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2.5.3 Water Conflict Risk
Water security is an existing vulnerability between Pakistan and India,
primarily due to the Indus Waters Treaty. Climate change has already put
pressure on water resources in the region, exacerbating the effects of
prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall. During the hypothetical war of
2025, India might block or divert water from the Indus and its tributaries,
further depleting Pakistan’s already limited water supply. This would
intensify water scarcity, adversely affecting Pakistan’s agriculture,
livelihoods, and overall water security.The treaty, which divides the water
of the Indus River system between the two countries, has been under
strain due to India’s development
3. Impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan
3.1 Agriculture and Food Security
Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which employs nearly 40% of the workforce,
is highly climate-sensitive. Changes in rainfall, heatwaves, and pest
outbreaks affect crop yields, especially of wheat, rice, and cotton.
Example: In 2018, extreme heat led to a 20% drop in wheat production in
southern Punjab (FAO, 2019).
3.2 Water Resources
With rapidly melting glaciers in the Himalayas and erratic monsoon rains,
Pakistan faces both floods and droughts. Water availability per capita has
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dropped from 5,000 m³ in 1951 to less than 1,000 m³ today—approaching
water scarcity.
3.3 Glacial Melting
The Hindu Kush–Himalayan (HKH) region holds over 7,000 glaciers.
These glaciers are retreating at an alarming rate, increasing risks of
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in northern areas like
GilgitBaltistan and Chitral.
3.4 Health Impacts
Heatwaves, waterborne diseases, and air pollution have increased. Karachi
recorded over 1,200 heatstroke deaths in 2015 due to prolonged high
temperatures and power outages (WHO, 2016).
3.5 Natural Disasters
Floods (2010, 2011, 2022), droughts (especially in Tharparkar), and
cyclones in coastal Sindh reflect the increasing frequency of extreme
weather events linked to climate change.
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4. Regional Focus
4.1 Thar Desert
Tharparkar faces chronic droughts, resulting in malnutrition and child
mortality. Lack of rain and drying wells have worsened food and water
scarcity.
4.2 Northern Areas (Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral)
Glacial melting has caused GLOFs and flash floods, damaging
infrastructure and isolating communities. The Bagrot Valley is a key case.
4.3 Coastal Areas (Karachi, Thatta, Badin)
Sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, and cyclones threaten livelihoods and
housing, particularly among fishing communities.
4.4 Urban Heat in Cities
Lahore and Karachi now experience prolonged summers and heatwaves.
Deforestation and loss of green spaces intensify heat-related stress.
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5. Case Studies and Examples
5.1 2022 Floods
The most catastrophic in recent history:
• 33 million people affected
• Over 1,700 deaths
• 2 million houses damaged
• Economic losses over $30 billion
Caused by intense monsoon rains, exacerbated by glacial melt and poor
infrastructure.
5.2 Billion Tree Tsunami Project
Launched by KP government and later expanded federally under the Ten
Billion Tree Tsunami Project, this program has planted over 2 billion trees
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so far (Government of Pakistan, 2023). It has gained global appreciation
but also faced criticism over monitoring and data accuracy.
6. Government and Institutional Response
6.1 National Climate Change Policy (NCCP)
Introduced in 2012, revised in 2021, the NCCP aims to integrate climate
resilience into national planning, but implementation remains weak.
6.2 Pakistan Climate Change Act (2017)
This act established the Pakistan Climate Change Council and Pakistan
Climate Change Authority, though both remain underfunded and partially
operational.
6.3 International Commitments
Pakistan is a signatory to the Paris Agreement and has pledged to reduce
20% of GHG emissions by 2030, conditional on international financial
support.
7. Challenges in Climate Governance
Lack of coordination between federal and provincial governments
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• Insufficient climate financing
• Weak institutional capacity
• Low public awareness
• Inadequate disaster preparedness and early warning systems
8. Recommendations
• Strengthen Climate Governance
Fully operationalize the Climate Change Authority with clear mandates
and budget.
• Invest in Renewable Energy
Expand solar and wind energy projects to reduce dependency on fossil
fuels.
• Improve Water Management
Build small dams, promote drip irrigation, and protect watersheds.
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• Urban Green Planning
Promote green belts, rooftop gardens, and eco-friendly transportation.
• Enhance Public Awareness
Use media, schools, and community programs to educate citizens on
climate risks and resilience.
• Disaster Preparedness
Expand early warning systems and climate-resilient infrastructure in
vulnerable regions.
• Leverage International Aid
Tap into Green Climate Fund and climate financing mechanisms for
adaptation and mitigation projects.
ConClusion
In conclusion, climate change poses a severe and multifaceted challenge
for Pakistan, impacting its agriculture, water resources, public health, and
overall socio-economic stability. Despite contributing minimally to global
greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable
countries in the world due to its geographical location, dependence on
agriculture, and limited adaptive capacity. The increasing frequency and
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intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and
heatwaves, are already straining the country's infrastructure and resources.
While the government has made efforts through policies such as the
National Climate Change Policy and initiatives like the Billion Tree
Tsunami, much remains to be done in terms of implementation, financing,
and public awareness. The looming threat of geopolitical tensions, such as
the potential for water conflicts with neighboring India, further
complicates the situation, especially in light of the growing water scarcity
exacerbated by climate change.
To build a climate-resilient Pakistan, it is crucial to strengthen governance
frameworks, invest in renewable energy, improve water management, and
enhance disaster preparedness. Moreover, international cooperation and
financial support are essential to help Pakistan mitigate the impacts of
climate change and adapt to its future challenges. The path forward
demands a holistic and integrated approach to climate action, which
combines scientific innovation, policy reform, and grassroots efforts. Only
through concerted and sustained efforts can Pakistan hope to secure a
sustainable and climate-resilient future for its people.
References
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