Link Real Estate Investment Trust: Link REIT To Achieve Long-Term Growth Through Capital Recycling
Link Real Estate Investment Trust: Link REIT To Achieve Long-Term Growth Through Capital Recycling
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                 Price/FVE          Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation          ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                           0.72               83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                   ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                  1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
39
          24
                                              2020                               2021                              2022                              2023                               2024                               YTD
                                              0.91                               0.83                              0.67                              0.74                               0.73                              0.72      Price/Fair Value
                                           -10.64                                1.24                           -12.14                            -16.78                             -18.87                              -1.37 Total Return %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 17 Jan 2025. Last Close as of 17 Jan 2025. Fair Value as of 30 May 2024 06:24, UTC.
Contents
Business Description                                                                    Link REIT to Achieve Long-Term Growth Through Capital
Business Strategy & Outlook (30 May 2024)
Bulls Say / Bears Say (7 Nov 2024)                                                      Recycling
Economic Moat (30 May 2024)
Fair Value and Profit Drivers (7 Nov 2024)
                                                                                        Business Strategy & Outlook Xavier Lee, Equity Analyst, 30 May 2024
Risk and Uncertainty (30 May 2024)
Capital Allocation (7 Nov 2024)                                                         Link REIT is one of the world’s largest retail-focused REITs. Its portfolio contains 154 properties across
Analyst Notes Archive                                                                   Hong Kong, mainland China, Australia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. The Hong Kong retail
Financials
                                                                                        properties make up over 50% of portfolio value. Its retail space in Hong Kong can be categorized into
ESG Risk
                                                                                        three subsegments. Destination or flagship properties are malls with an enhanced trade mix and unique
Appendix
Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
                                                                                        branding, while community malls are midsize, serving as local community hubs. Smaller properties are
                                                                                        at a neighborhood level, providing essential goods and services for daily living. With the majority of its
Important Disclosure
The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of             overall portfolio in community and neighborhood malls, Link is a dominant player in the more resilient
Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), and
Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please
                                                                                        district center-type assets.
visit: http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures.
The primary analyst covering this company does not own its stock. Since its IPO, the company has demonstrated strong earnings and distribution growth. By applying
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
Sector                                   Industry                                       opens the assets to a new category of retailers, allowing continuously rising rent levels and enabling
u Real Estate                            REIT - Retail
                                                                                        new AEIs.
Business Description
Link REIT is Asia's largest REIT, listed in 2005 to privatize                           Through capital recycling, the company has expanded into new areas. In Hong Kong, it converted a
retail assets held by the Hong Kong Housing Authority. It                               former government office building into a retail complex and developed an office project in Kowloon East.
owns 154 properties and about 57,000 car park spaces.                                   Acquisitions continued apace in retail, office, and logistics assets in mainland China, Singapore,
It expanded its investment mandate in 2014 to allow
                                                                                        Australia, and the UK. The company is looking to further expand through capital partnerships, targeting
overseas acquisitions and has since acquired retail,
                                                                                        assets in Australia, Singapore, and Japan.
office, and logistics properties in China, as well as an
office development project in Hong Kong. More recently,
                                                                                        Bulls Say Xavier Lee, Equity Analyst, 7 Nov 2024
Link expanded its footprint to Sydney, Melbourne,
                                                                                    u Capital recycling is expected to enable Link REIT to consolidate around its top assets and dominate key
London, and Singapore.
                                                                                        districts. The portfolio effect enables the company to initiate another round of AEIs and reposition its
                                                                                        assets, in our view.
                                                                                    u We believe enhanced infrastructure connecting Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta benefits the
u The company's Hong Kong retail portfolio is unable to maintain the current high occupancy and rental
rates as there is more leakage of Hong Kong tenant sales given the northbound traveling trend.
                                                                                        We assign Link REIT a no-moat rating. Link acquired its earliest assets from the Hong Kong Housing
                                                                                        Authority in 2005, which were developed a few decades ago to serve nearby public housing estates in
                                                                                        Hong Kong. Link later widened its investment mandate to allow for property development and
                                                                                        acquisition outside of Hong Kong. It has since expanded its footprint to office, retail and logistics assets
                                                                                        in mainland China, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia, London in the UK as well as Singapore. The
                                                                                        company continues to look for opportunities in select overseas markets, after its rights issue in early
                                                                                        2023. While we think it is possible for the Hong Kong retail portfolio to benefit from efficient scale, we
                                                                                        think future investments outside of Hong Kong are less likely to ensure an excessive return over cost of
                                                                                        capital as land is generally less constrained. Adding on to that, the current high interest rate
                                                                                        environment may lead to an expansion in capitalization rates, putting downward pressure on property
                                                                                        valuations. As a result, Link REIT may not be able to reproduce valuation gains that had historically
                                                                                        allowed it to achieve high returns above its cost of capital.
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                     Page 3 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation            ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                     ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                    1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
Competitors
                                         Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823                   Hang Lung Properties Ltd 00101                           Swire Properties Ltd 01972                                Wharf Real Est...estment Co Ltd 01997
                                                                                        As of March 2024, Link REIT has 98 retail properties in Hong Kong, with an area of over 8 million square
                                                                                        feet. They are generally located in heavily trafficked and built-up areas with large residential
                                                                                        catchments, including both public and private housing estates, serving the daily needs of the population
                                                                                        in the neighborhood. As such, Link REIT’s malls are dominated by tenants in the nondiscretionary trade.
                                                                                        Link REIT’s assets frequently represent the only or the majority of the shopping facilities in the vicinity.
                                                                                        We think the demand for retail space in the relevant areas is closely tied with the population in the
                                                                                        nearby estates. We believe demand in areas where Link REIT has a presence is largely mature, and we
                                                                                        do not anticipate a material increase in demand due to a lack of suitable sites for new housing supply.
                                                                                        We do not expect new entrants to develop new retail assets in areas where Link has a strong presence,
                                                                                        due to the high cost of land given the land scarcity in Hong Kong, and that the areas are already highly
                                                                                        built up. Stock of retail assets in Hong Kong increased by only 3.7% in the past five years, according to
                                                                                        data from the Rating and Valuation Department. The increase was primarily driven by key development
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                        ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 4 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        areas, such as Kwun Tong Town Centre and Tseung Kwan O, where Link REIT does not have a
                                                                                        significant presence. That said, with most of Link’s Hong Kong retail assets having undergone some
                                                                                        degree of upgrade or asset enhancement, we are concerned that it may not be able to increase
                                                                                        valuations in the future as it did historically. This is compounded by the current high interest rate
                                                                                        environment pressuring asset valuations.
                                                                                        Link has expanded its footprint to other asset classes in mainland China, Australia, the UK, and
                                                                                        Singapore. The first step after the expansion of Link’s investment mandate was the acquisition of land
                                                                                        in Kowloon East for an office property development project via a joint venture with Nan Fung
                                                                                        Development. Later in 2016, Link acquired 700 Nathan Road through government tender, which has a
                                                                                        25-story office tower above the retail portion. We do not think Link’s Hong Kong office portfolio can
                                                                                        benefit from efficient scale. Grade A office supply in Kwun Tong, where Link REIT’s key office asset is
                                                                                        located, has increased significantly, with an 8.3% CAGR in the past two decades. We think the new
                                                                                        supply was spurred by the redevelopment of industrial properties to retail and office properties, given
                                                                                        the government’s ambition to develop the area as a second central business district, or CBD. The area
                                                                                        will continue to see about a 4% increase in Grade A office supply in the coming two years, despite a
                                                                                        vacancy of 18.7% as of end-2023, well above 12.8% for overall Hong Kong Grade A offices, according to
                                                                                        data from JLL. We do not think that Link REIT’s key office asset will be able to outcompete its peers
                                                                                        amid the oversupply, given the distance to the subway station.
                                                                                        Similarly for the Shanghai office property, we do not think it can benefit from efficient scale. Although
                                                                                        the Shanghai office property, Link Square, is located favorably in the Huangpu District in Shanghai and
                                                                                        is well-serviced by metro lines, the office stock in existing CBDs is less constrained, and new CBDs are
                                                                                        being created. According to Cushman & Wakefield data, there is 1.1 million square meters, or 13% of
                                                                                        existing stock, of Grade A office planned and under construction in the Shanghai CBDs. Link also owns a
                                                                                        number of retail assets in Tier 1 cities in China. Yet, retail area supply in these cities is less constrained
                                                                                        than that in Hong Kong, with over 20% increase in supply in the respective submarkets in the coming
                                                                                        years, according to Cushman & Wakefield data. In addition, Link REIT’s mainland retail portfolio typically
                                                                                        represents 1-2 small to medium-size malls in each city it operates in, and represents only a small portion
                                                                                        of the respective submarkets.
                                                                                        Link has also entered into the industrial space in China. The trust holds five logistics assets in the
                                                                                        Greater Bay Area, or GBA, and Yangtze River Delta, or YRD, accounting for 1.1% of total portfolio value.
                                                                                        These assets are externally managed, as Link REIT gradually accumulates experience in the asset class.
                                                                                        These properties are typically located in city fringes where land supply is less constrained. According to
                                                                                        Savills, Changshu, where two of Link’s assets are located, doubled its stock in 2022; while Dongguan
                                                                                        and Foshan, where Link’s GBA assets are located, both showed double-digit increases in stock. We
                                                                                        continue to expect new supply of premium logistics space and hence, we do not ascribe a moat to the
                                                                                        logistics segment.
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 5 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        For its overseas portfolio, we think Jurong Point in Singapore can benefit from an efficient scale moat
                                                                                        source. Jurong Point is the largest suburban mall in Singapore. It is also the only mall in the vicinity,
                                                                                        amid a highly built-up residential area. The mall enjoys great connectivity, with access to a subway
                                                                                        station and bus interchange. This, together with a population catchment of around 360,000 persons, or
                                                                                        6% of Singapore’s total population, enables excellent shopper footfall within the asset. We think the
                                                                                        mall will continue to enjoy high occupancy and healthy rental growth in the future. However, we think
                                                                                        the overall segment has no moat as Jurong Point only makes up about 40% of Link REIT’s overseas
                                                                                        portfolio, while we believe the rest of its overseas assets do not dominate their respective submarkets.
                                                                                        We see prudent management of environmental, social, and governance issues in Link REIT and believe
                                                                                        the trust’s ESG risk exposure is an immaterial effect on our Uncertainty Rating. REITs in general face
                                                                                        environmental issues associated with green buildings as well as energy and water consumption in
                                                                                        managing their properties. Link has set clear policies on responsible property investment, or RPI, which
                                                                                        takes into account the sustainable qualifications of buildings in the due diligence of investment process.
                                                                                        The trust has also extended RPI to operations and maintenance, aiming to reduce energy and water
                                                                                        consumption through the use of renewable energy, recycled water, and water-efficient fittings and
                                                                                        fixtures. We believe this is positive as the reduced energy consumption has a direct impact on the
                                                                                        trust’s operating expense.
                                                                                        For Link REIT, the impact of district and neighborhood malls on the daily lives of the local communities
                                                                                        means there is a greater importance on "social" aspects within ESG issues, relative to peers, in our view.
                                                                                        One example is the asset-enhancement initiatives, which improve the quality of the mall but at the
                                                                                        same time, results in a rental increase for its tenants. The latter may be passed on to consumers and is
                                                                                        particularly sensitive for its assets located closer to public housing estates. In finding the right balance,
                                                                                        Link has set out policies and procedures on tenant engagement, as well as providing assistance to the
                                                                                        underprivileged, among other measures taken. Link’s effort in ESG integration was recognized by
                                                                                        inclusion in the Dow Jones Sustainability Asia Pacific Index, FTSE4Good Index Series, and the Hang
                                                                                        Seng Corporate Sustainability Index. Link’s ESG efforts also have a direct impact on profitability as it
                                                                                        enables interest cost savings in all its sustainability-linked bonds, provided they achieve sustainability
                                                                                        milestones based on their performance in the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark.
Fair Value and Profit Drivers Xavier Lee, Equity Analyst, 7 Nov 2024
                                                                                        Our fair value estimate is HKD 45 per unit, which implies a forward price/book of 0.68 times and
                                                                                        dividend yield of 5.7% in fiscal 2025. Our valuation is based on a cost of equity of 9% and a weighted
                                                                                        average cost of capital of 7.6%.
                                                                                        Over 60% of Link's Hong Kong retail rental revenue is from nondiscretionary trade, which leaves it more
                                                                                        resilient through economic downcycles. Link’s first-half fiscal 2025 tenant sales showed a slower 4.3%
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 6 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        year-on-year decline, compared with the 8.8% decline for overall Hong Kong retail sales. That said, the
                                                                                        portfolio saw a 0.7% positive rental reversion in the first half of fiscal 2025, given active tenant mix
                                                                                        optimization and asset enhancement initiatives. Over the longer term, we expect Link to manage rental
                                                                                        pressure from the northbound traveling trend through active tenant mix management, and assume an
                                                                                        average annual rental income growth of 3% in our explicit forecast period.
                                                                                        Link’s mainland China retail portfolio saw a negative 3.2% rental reversion in first-half fiscal 2025. We
                                                                                        expect the operating environment for the mainland China retail portfolio to remain challenging as the
                                                                                        weaker economic outlook weighs on household consumption power. We forecast a 26.5% revenue
                                                                                        growth in the mainland China portfolio for fiscal 2025, but expect much of it to be driven by the
                                                                                        consolidation of Qibao Vanke Plaza, which was completed in February 2024, and the full-year
                                                                                        contribution of newly acquired logistics assets. We assume mainland China rental growth to slow to 3%
                                                                                        annually thereafter.
                                                                                        We expect occupancy for the overseas portfolio to remain above 95%, given the long weighted average
                                                                                        lease expiry at 100 Market Street and The Cabot, as well as the recovery in tourism in Sydney. The
                                                                                        Australia office assets, including 100 Market Street, have a 4% rental escalation built in, and we also
                                                                                        assume other overseas properties to increase rental by 4% annually.
                                                                                        We estimate Link’s terminal value by using an exit cap rate at the end of the explicit forecast period.
                                                                                        The exit cap rate is derived from the current net property income yields computed using the latest
                                                                                        valuation disclosed in the annual report. We further applied 75- to 100-basis-point yield expansions as
                                                                                        we factor in increased perceived risks on rentals. We find this method useful in gauging the underlying
                                                                                        value of the trust as it captures the likelihood of realizing this value through an asset sale or merger and
                                                                                        acquisition activity. The computed terminal value is added to Link’s enterprise value.
                                                                                        We assign Link REIT a Medium Morningstar Uncertainty Rating. With over 70% of its portfolio by value
                                                                                        located in Hong Kong, the company faces the key risk of a significant deterioration in economic
                                                                                        activities in the city. However, given the focus on mass- and mid-market non-discretionary and a tenant
                                                                                        mix skewed toward defensive trades, such as food and beverage and supermarket, the company is less
                                                                                        exposed to the cyclicality of consumer spending and the risk of online shopping.
                                                                                        That said, we think there is a structural shift in Hong Kong residents' retail consumption habits as more
                                                                                        people travel to Shenzhen for cheaper goods and services. We believe this creates higher operational
                                                                                        risk for Link REIT's Hong Kong retail assets as greater competition for shopper traffic and tenant sales
                                                                                        could pressure rental growth. We also think new growth initiatives of capital recycling and overseas
                                                                                        acquisitions may involve a higher degree of execution risk.
                                                                                        We believe Link REIT’s ESG risks are low and immaterial to the company. We therefore do not expect
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 7 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        We assign Link REIT an Exemplary Capital Allocation Rating. The REIT has sound balance sheet
                                                                                        management, which we think can support its debt obligations even through times of distress. Link’s net
                                                                                        gearing ratio of 20.6% as of end-September 2024 is well below the regulatory threshold of 50%,
                                                                                        suggesting a manageable leverage level, and implying that there remains debt headroom available. The
                                                                                        majority of Link REIT’s assets focus on nondiscretionary trade malls, so we do not expect any material
                                                                                        decline in profitability during economic downturns. With its staggered debt maturity profile, we do not
                                                                                        expect Link to experience any difficulty in handling its debt obligations, given its stable cash flows and
                                                                                        record of successfully refinancing its debt.
                                                                                        We view Link’s investments as exceptional, given its active asset-enhancement initiatives and capital
                                                                                        recycling programs. Historically, Link has invested in asset-enhancement projects to upgrade its
                                                                                        properties. In the first decade since its listing, Link has increased its book value per share by a
                                                                                        compound annual growth rate of 19%, partly attributable to net property income growth. By improving
                                                                                        the attractiveness of its assets, Link has achieved a five-year average historical return on AEI of over
                                                                                        15%. On the acquisition side, the REIT has historically performed capital recycling by divesting some of
                                                                                        its smaller and lower-yielding assets to consolidate its position in dominance in certain growing
                                                                                        districts, which we believe would fortify its narrow moat in efficient scale. From 2016, the REIT has
                                                                                        expanded its mandate to include assets in mainland China, Sydney, Melbourne, London, and Singapore
                                                                                        in its portfolio. We believe these higher-yielding assets could bring diversification benefits as well as
                                                                                        improved profitability to Link, thus adding value to shareholders. Link’s target is to increase its mainland
                                                                                        and overseas assets to around 30%-40% of its total portfolio. With a strong cash position and a slightly
                                                                                        undergeared balance sheet, we expect more investment opportunities for Link.
                                                                                        With the growth opportunities mainly financed by capital recycling, Link has historically maintained a
                                                                                        100% payout ratio, well above the mandated 90%. The REIT has also been active in various capital-
                                                                                        return programs, including share-buyback programs, as well as additional discretionary distributions in
                                                                                        fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021.
                                                                                        Link REIT Earnings: Hong Kong Retail Remains Challenging; Attractive Distribution Yield Xavier
                                                                                        Lee,Equity Analyst,7 Nov 2024
                                                                                        Link REIT’s first-half fiscal 2025 (ending March) revenue increased 6.4% year on year, in line with our
                                                                                        expectations. Growth was mainly driven by the full consolidation of Link Plaza Qibao in Shanghai, while
                                                                                        the operating environment for its core Hong Kong retail portfolio remains challenging. That said, finance
                                                                                        costs came in slightly lower than we expected, given debt repayment and a lower average all-in
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 8 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        borrowing cost of 3.69%, compared with 3.78% for fiscal 2024. As such, we lowered our net interest
                                                                                        expense assumptions and raised our fiscal 2025-26 adjusted net income and distribution per unit
                                                                                        forecasts by 5%. We retain our fair value estimate of HKD 45 per unit, as we keep our long-term
                                                                                        forecasts largely unchanged. With units currently trading at a 15% discount to our valuation, we think
                                                                                        Link is undervalued, supported by a fiscal 2025 distribution yield of 6.9%. We believe this is attractive
                                                                                        under the current interest-rate-cut cycle.Our view for Link is unchanged as we continue to expect its
                                                                                        Hong Kong retail portfolio to be more resilient, given its focus on nondiscretionary trades, underpinning
                                                                                        a steady long-term growth in rental income and distribution. This is reflected in the stable Hong Kong
                                                                                        retail portfolio occupancy of 97.8% and its relative outperformance in tenant sales, which showed a
                                                                                        slower year-on-year decline of 4.3% during the first half of fiscal 2025 compared with an 8.8% decline in
                                                                                        overall Hong Kong retail sales. While Link managed to achieve a mild 0.7% positive rental reversion
                                                                                        —given active tenant mix optimization and asset enhancement initiatives—management shared that it
                                                                                        would be difficult to maintain positive rental reversion in the second half as the operating environment
                                                                                        remains weak. Overall, we forecast a mild 1% revenue growth for its Hong Kong retail portfolio in fiscal
                                                                                        2025.
                                                                                        China’s Slowing Economy Remains a Key Headwind for Shanghai Office and Retail Assets Xavier
                                                                                        Lee,Equity Analyst,15 Oct 2024
                                                                                        We maintain the fair value estimates of Swire Properties, CapitaLand Investment, Mapletree Pan Asia
                                                                                        Commercial Trust, or MPACT, and Link REIT after visiting their office and retail assets in Shanghai. We
                                                                                        think China’s slowing economic growth remains a key headwind for consumer spending and business
                                                                                        expansion. For retail malls, we note that vacancy rates for Shanghai downtown retail districts remain
                                                                                        healthy at 5.4% as of third-quarter 2024, according to Cushman & Wakefield. This should provide some
                                                                                        support for market rents that are being weighed down by weak retail sales performance and supply of
                                                                                        new retail malls, albeit in the secondary retail areas. On the other hand, office rents remain soft in
                                                                                        Shanghai given the elevated central business district vacancy rate of 16.6% as of third-quarter 2024,
                                                                                        according to Cushman & Wakefield. While the Chinese government is looking to revive its economy with
                                                                                        a series of policy stimulus efforts, we think that business owners and consumers may still exercise
                                                                                        caution until they are convinced of a durable economic recovery. For landlords and REITs with mainland
                                                                                        China exposure, our preferred pick is Swire Properties that is trading at a 29% discount to our fair value.
                                                                                        Swire Properties remains steadfast in its long-term plan to invest in China, allocating half its HKD 100
                                                                                        billion investment plan to China. We expect these projects to start contributing from 2026, with the bulk
                                                                                        of it coming from 2027.
                                                                                        Link REIT: Resilient Through Current Downturn; We Continue to See Long-Term Value Xavier
                                                                                        Lee,Equity Analyst,4 Oct 2024
                                                                                        We maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 45 per unit for no-moat Link REIT after its pre-results
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 9 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        blackout meeting as our long-term thesis is unchanged. We think the spending leakage due to the
                                                                                        northbound traveling trend in Hong Kong has already been priced in, and we believe that Link’s focus
                                                                                        on nondiscretionary trades leaves its portfolio resilient through economic cycles. This underpins steady
                                                                                        rental and distribution growth over the long term. Despite the recent unit price rally, we continue to see
                                                                                        Link REIT as undervalued, with a 13% discount to our valuation. Our fiscal 2025 (ending March)
                                                                                        distribution per unit forecast of HKD 2.51 also implies an attractive 6.4% distribution yield.The resilience
                                                                                        in Link’s Hong Kong portfolio was reflected in the stable occupancy and tenant sales outperformance in
                                                                                        the current downturn. While end-June occupancy was robust at 97.5%, it further improved in the
                                                                                        September quarter. Although tenant sales were weak during the June quarter, with a 5.9% year-on-year
                                                                                        decline, this still outperformed the 9.9% decline for overall Hong Kong. Management shared that tenant
                                                                                        sales performance picked up in the September quarter, compared with a deterioration for overall Hong
                                                                                        Kong, which saw 11.8% and 10.1% year-on-year declines in July and August, respectively, according to
                                                                                        the Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong. We continue to expect a low-single-digit rental
                                                                                        growth for the Hong Kong portfolio in fiscal 2025 despite the challenging retail landscape, in line with
                                                                                        management’s guidance of a mildly positive rental reversion.For the mainland China portfolio,
                                                                                        management shared that demand softened on weakening consumer spending, but we expect that to be
                                                                                        mitigated through tenant mix management and asset enhancement initiatives. Notably, the Link
                                                                                        CentralWalk basement transformation completed in July 2024 achieved a return on investment of
                                                                                        43.8%, and took footfall and tenant sales to a historical high, according to management.
                                                                                        Link REIT Earnings: Cutting Fair Value by 24% as Northbound Travel Puts Pressure on HK Retail
                                                                                        Assets Xavier Lee,Equity Analyst,30 May 2024
                                                                                        No-moat Link REIT’s fiscal 2024 (ending March) results were within our expectations, with 11% year-on-
                                                                                        year revenue growth driven by full-year contribution of the newly acquired Singapore retail assets.
                                                                                        Distributable income increased by a smaller 6% year on year due to higher financing costs. Despite the
                                                                                        in-line results, we cut our fair value estimate to HKD 45 per share from HKD 59, and raised our
                                                                                        Morningstar Uncertainty Rating to Medium from Low. In our view, there is a structural shift in Hong
                                                                                        Kong residents' retail consumption habits, as traveling up to mainland China for cheaper goods and
                                                                                        services has become a regular activity for part of the population. This creates higher operating risks for
                                                                                        Link’s Hong Kong retail malls, as they now face greater competition for shopper traffic and tenant sales.
                                                                                        Our updated forecasts reflect 1) weaker midcycle retail rental growth in Hong Kong; 2) margin pressure
                                                                                        given higher Hong Kong marketing costs; 3) increased fiscal 2025-26 financing costs; 4) higher exit
                                                                                        capitalization rates for the investment properties portfolio on the back of a higher-for-longer interest-
                                                                                        rate environment; and 5) increased perceived risks on rentals. We also raised our cost of equity
                                                                                        assumption to reflect Link’s higher operating risk, bringing our weighted average cost of capital to 7.6%
                                                                                        from 6.9%.Our fiscal 2025-27 earnings estimates were lowered by 6%-10%, and we forecast a fiscal
                                                                                        2025 distribution per unit of HKD 2.51, implying a distribution yield of 7.2%. Despite slower rental
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 10 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        growth, we continue to see Link’s units as undervalued, at a 23% discount to our new fair value
                                                                                        estimate. We think Link’s Hong Kong malls will remain relevant as they continue to serve the daily
                                                                                        needs for much of the catchment area. We also believe the inclusion of Hong Kong REITs in the Stock
                                                                                        Connect scheme could also improve liquidity for Link REIT and support unit prices.
                                                                                        Link REIT: Acquisition of Remaining 50% Interest in Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza Is Accretive Xavier
                                                                                        Lee,Equity Analyst,9 Feb 2024
                                                                                        No-moat Link REIT announced the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in Qibao Vanke Plaza in
                                                                                        Shanghai. The estimated consideration of CNY 2.4 billion is based on an agreed property value of CNY
                                                                                        5.2 billion, which represents a 26.3% discount to the appraised property value of CNY 7.1 billion as of
                                                                                        end-January 2024. With a monthly passing income of CNY 40.6 million from the mall and the car park,
                                                                                        we estimate an attractive net property income yield of around 7%. After updating our model for this
                                                                                        acquisition, we raise our fiscal 2025 and 2026 (ending March) distribution per unit forecast slightly to
                                                                                        HKD 2.63 and HKD 2.86, respectively, implying a fiscal 2025 distribution yield of 6.9%. We maintain our
                                                                                        fair value estimate of HKD 59 as we previously assumed that the rights issue proceeds would be
                                                                                        redeployed for acquisitions.Although the acquisition represents only around 1% of the current
                                                                                        investment properties portfolio value, we like that the deal is accretive and should help alleviate
                                                                                        investors’ earlier concern on the lack of acquisition after the rights issue in February 2023. The
                                                                                        consideration paid represents only 14% of the rights issue proceeds, and the low pro forma net gearing
                                                                                        of 20.4% implies there remains headroom for further investments. We believe more accretive
                                                                                        acquisitions are needed to restore investors’ confidence on Link REIT’s capital management. That said,
                                                                                        we think units are currently undervalued with a 35% discount to our fair value estimate.
                                                                                        Link REIT: South China Retail Malls Revitalized by Asset Enhancements; Competition Remains
                                                                                        Intense Xavier Lee,Equity Analyst,27 Nov 2023
                                                                                        We maintain our fair value estimate of HKD 59 for Link REIT after a tour of the trust’s retail assets in
                                                                                        Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. In our view, Link REIT’s malls are professionally managed with a
                                                                                        tenant mix that is well curated and carefully positioned across the malls. We think this is an important
                                                                                        differentiating factor in mainland China where there are many shopping malls competing for shoppers.
                                                                                        Within Guangzhou and Shenzhen, we visited Link CentralWalk, Link Plaza Guangzhou, and Link Plaza
                                                                                        Tianhe. Of these three malls, we like Link Plaza Guangzhou the most as it is well connected by two
                                                                                        subway lines and serves local residents. There is also potential to capture tourist shoppers as the mall is
                                                                                        near popular tourist destinations YongQing Fang and Shamian Island. According to management, the
                                                                                        mall’s current footfall has already surpassed its pre-COVID-19 level and we expect this to grow further
                                                                                        as new residential developments in the area are completed, coupled with a recovery in tourism.As for
                                                                                        Link CentralWalk, we commend management’s asset enhancements and efforts to decorate the mall to
                                                                                        make it look more attractive. Management shared their “first-store” strategy, which aims to persuade
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                      ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 11 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
                                                                                        new brands to open their first mainland Shenzhen or Futian stores in CentralWalk. The mall also has a
                                                                                        good catchment of office workers in Futian business district with potential weekend Hong Kong tourists
                                                                                        and business travelers. In addition, management has shifted its tenant mix to food and beverages and
                                                                                        leisure and entertainment after the exit of Carrefour. We like the focus on evening entertainment, with
                                                                                        bars and nightclubs operating extended hours, because it is a differentiating factor for the mall. K
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                      ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                               Page 12 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
         1
                                              2020                              2021                               2022                              2023                               2024                               YTD
                                              0.93                              0.73                               0.69                              0.57                               0.62                              0.63      Price/Fair Value
                                            23.45                            -17.40                                0.00                           -23.59                             -36.12                               0.48      Total Return %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 17 Jan 2025. Last Close as of 17 Jan 2025. Fair Value as of 31 Jul 2024 04:48, UTC.
13
         8
                                              2020                              2021                               2022                              2023                               2024                               YTD
                                              0.78                              0.72                               0.64                              0.51                               0.70                              0.68      Price/Fair Value
                                             -9.52                             -9.07                               6.45                           -15.27                                7.59                             -3.76 Total Return %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 17 Jan 2025. Last Close as of 17 Jan 2025. Fair Value as of 8 Jul 2024 12:25, UTC.
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                   ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                               Page 13 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
26
        17
                                              2020                              2021                               2022                              2023                               2024                               YTD
                                              0.89                              0.87                               0.99                              0.54                               0.64                              0.63      Price/Fair Value
                                           -11.55                               1.51                             18.28                            -39.16                             -19.89                              -2.41 Total Return %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 17 Jan 2025. Last Close as of 17 Jan 2025. Fair Value as of 7 Aug 2024 09:22, UTC.
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                   ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                   Page 14 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                       Fair Value Estimate                Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation          ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                        45.00 HKD                          0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                   ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                      30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                                 17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                  1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                       ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                                  Page 15 of 22
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 QQQQ 17 Jan 2025 17:22, UTC
Last Price                         Fair Value Estimate              Price/FVE           Market Cap                        Economic MoatTM Equity Style Box                           Uncertainty         Capital Allocation         ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
32.45 HKD                          45.00 HKD                        0.72                83.80 HKD Bil                          None                1 Large Value                     Medium              Exemplary                  ;;;;;
17 Jan 2025                        30 May 2024 06:24, UTC                               17 Jan 2025                                                                                                                                 1 Jan 2025 06:00, UTC
Management
                                                                                                                                                                                         u Management measures a company’s ability to manage
   Manageable Risk                                24.9                                                                                                                                     ESG risks through its commitments and actions
                                                                                                      66.2%
– Managed Risk3                                   16.5                                                Strong
                                                                                                                                                                                         u Management assesses a company's efficiency on ESG
         Negligible                              Low                             Medium                                 High                              Severe                         ESG Risk Rating is of Jan 01, 2025. Highest Controversy Level is as of Jan 08,
                                                                                                                                                                                         2025. Sustainalytics Subindustry: REITs. Sustainalytics provides Morningstar
ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to which a company’s value is impacted by environmental, social, and governance                                                                      with company ESG ratings and metrics on a monthly basis and as such, the
risks, by evaluating the company’s ability to manage the ESG risks it faces.                                                                                                             ratings in Morningstar may not necessarily reflect current Sustainalytics’
                                                                                                                                                                                         scores for the company. For the most up to date rating and more information,
1. A company's Exposure to material ESG issues 2. Unmanageable Risk refers to risks that are inherent to a particular business model that cannot be managed by                           please visit: sustainalytics.com/esg-ratings/.
programs or initiatives 3. Managed Risk = Manageable Risk multiplied by a Management score of 66.2% 4. Management Gap assesses risks that are not
managed, but are considered manageable 5. ESG Risk Rating Assessment = Overall Unmanaged Risk = Management Gap plus Unmanageable Risk
Peer Analysis 01 Jan 2025                                         Peers are selected from the company's Sustainalytics-defined Subindustry and are displayed based on the closest market cap values
Company Name                                                      Exposure                                                             Management                                                           ESG Risk Rating
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 25.3 | Low 0 55+ 66.2 | Strong 100 0 8.8 | Negligible 0 40+
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd 31.9 | Low 0 55+ 61.4 | Strong 100 0 12.8 | Low 0 40+
Hang Lung Properties Ltd                                          28.8 | Low                    0                         55+          55.0 | Strong                 100                           0        13.2 | Low                 0                        40+
Swire Properties Ltd                                              27.2 | Low                    0                         55+          63.7 | Strong                 100                           0        10.2 | Low                 0                        40+
Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd 29.6 | Low 0 55+ 43.9 | Average 100 0 16.8 | Low 0 40+
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                                      ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                      Page 16 of 22
Appendix
Historical Morningstar Rating
Link Real Estate Investment Trust 00823 17 Jan 2025 17:21, UTC
Dec 2025              Nov 2025              Oct 2025               Sep 2025              Aug 2025               Jul 2025              Jun 2025               May 2025              Apr 2025               Mar 2025              Feb 2025   Jan 2025
-                     -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -          QQQQ
Dec 2024              Nov 2024              Oct 2024               Sep 2024              Aug 2024               Jul 2024              Jun 2024               May 2024              Apr 2024               Mar 2024              Feb 2024   Jan 2024
QQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQQ
Dec 2023              Nov 2023              Oct 2023               Sep 2023              Aug 2023               Jul 2023              Jun 2023               May 2023              Apr 2023               Mar 2023              Feb 2023   Jan 2023
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQQ
Dec 2022              Nov 2022              Oct 2022               Sep 2022              Aug 2022               Jul 2022              Jun 2022               May 2022              Apr 2022               Mar 2022              Feb 2022   Jan 2022
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ       QQQQ
Dec 2021              Nov 2021              Oct 2021               Sep 2021              Aug 2021               Jul 2021              Jun 2021               May 2021              Apr 2021               Mar 2021              Feb 2021   Jan 2021
QQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQ                   QQQ                    QQQ                   QQQ                    QQQQ                  QQQQ       QQQQ
Dec 2020              Nov 2020              Oct 2020               Sep 2020              Aug 2020               Jul 2020              Jun 2020               May 2020              Apr 2020               Mar 2020              Feb 2020   Jan 2020
QQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQQ                 QQQQ                   QQQQQ                 QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQ        QQ
Dec 2025              Nov 2025              Oct 2025               Sep 2025              Aug 2025               Jul 2025              Jun 2025               May 2025              Apr 2025               Mar 2025              Feb 2025   Jan 2025
-                     -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -          QQQQQ
Dec 2024              Nov 2024              Oct 2024               Sep 2024              Aug 2024               Jul 2024              Jun 2024               May 2024              Apr 2024               Mar 2024              Feb 2024   Jan 2024
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQQ
Dec 2023              Nov 2023              Oct 2023               Sep 2023              Aug 2023               Jul 2023              Jun 2023               May 2023              Apr 2023               Mar 2023              Feb 2023   Jan 2023
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQ       QQQQQ
Dec 2022              Nov 2022              Oct 2022               Sep 2022              Aug 2022               Jul 2022              Jun 2022               May 2022              Apr 2022               Mar 2022              Feb 2022   Jan 2022
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQ                   QQQQQ                 QQQQ       QQQQ
Dec 2021              Nov 2021              Oct 2021               Sep 2021              Aug 2021               Jul 2021              Jun 2021               May 2021              Apr 2021               Mar 2021              Feb 2021   Jan 2021
QQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQ                   QQQ                    QQQQ                  QQQ        QQQ
Dec 2020              Nov 2020              Oct 2020               Sep 2020              Aug 2020               Jul 2020              Jun 2020               May 2020              Apr 2020               Mar 2020              Feb 2020   Jan 2020
QQQQ                  QQQ                   QQQQ                   QQQ                   QQQ                    QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQQ                 QQQQ       QQQQ
Dec 2025              Nov 2025              Oct 2025               Sep 2025              Aug 2025               Jul 2025              Jun 2025               May 2025              Apr 2025               Mar 2025              Feb 2025   Jan 2025
-                     -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -          QQQQQ
Dec 2024              Nov 2024              Oct 2024               Sep 2024              Aug 2024               Jul 2024              Jun 2024               May 2024              Apr 2024               Mar 2024              Feb 2024   Jan 2024
QQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQQ
Dec 2023              Nov 2023              Oct 2023               Sep 2023              Aug 2023               Jul 2023              Jun 2023               May 2023              Apr 2023               Mar 2023              Feb 2023   Jan 2023
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQ
Dec 2022              Nov 2022              Oct 2022               Sep 2022              Aug 2022               Jul 2022              Jun 2022               May 2022              Apr 2022               Mar 2022              Feb 2022   Jan 2022
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQQ
Dec 2021              Nov 2021              Oct 2021               Sep 2021              Aug 2021               Jul 2021              Jun 2021               May 2021              Apr 2021               Mar 2021              Feb 2021   Jan 2021
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ       QQQQ
Dec 2020              Nov 2020              Oct 2020               Sep 2020              Aug 2020               Jul 2020              Jun 2020               May 2020              Apr 2020               Mar 2020              Feb 2020   Jan 2020
QQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQ
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                          ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                      Page 17 of 22
Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd 01997 17 Jan 2025 17:21, UTC
Dec 2025              Nov 2025              Oct 2025               Sep 2025              Aug 2025               Jul 2025              Jun 2025               May 2025              Apr 2025               Mar 2025              Feb 2025   Jan 2025
-                     -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -                      -                     -          QQQQ
Dec 2024              Nov 2024              Oct 2024               Sep 2024              Aug 2024               Jul 2024              Jun 2024               May 2024              Apr 2024               Mar 2024              Feb 2024   Jan 2024
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQQ
Dec 2023              Nov 2023              Oct 2023               Sep 2023              Aug 2023               Jul 2023              Jun 2023               May 2023              Apr 2023               Mar 2023              Feb 2023   Jan 2023
QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQ        QQQ
Dec 2022              Nov 2022              Oct 2022               Sep 2022              Aug 2022               Jul 2022              Jun 2022               May 2022              Apr 2022               Mar 2022              Feb 2022   Jan 2022
QQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQQ      QQQQ
Dec 2021              Nov 2021              Oct 2021               Sep 2021              Aug 2021               Jul 2021              Jun 2021               May 2021              Apr 2021               Mar 2021              Feb 2021   Jan 2021
QQQQ                  QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQQ                  QQQQ                   QQQ                   QQQ                    QQQ                   QQQ                    QQQ                   QQQ        QQQQ
Dec 2020              Nov 2020              Oct 2020               Sep 2020              Aug 2020               Jul 2020              Jun 2020               May 2020              Apr 2020               Mar 2020              Feb 2020   Jan 2020
QQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ                  QQQQQ                 QQQQQ      QQQQQ
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                          ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                 Page 18 of 22
Overview                                                                                    turns on invested capital (or ROIC) over and above our es-                                  rive our annual free cash flow forecast.
At the heart of our valuation system is a detailed projec-                                  timate of a firm’s cost of capital, or weighted average
                                                                                                                                                                                        Stage II: Fade
tion of a company’s future cash flows, resulting from our                                   cost of capital (or WACC). Without a moat, profits are
                                                                                                                                                                                        The second stage of our model is the period it will take
analysts’ research. Analysts create custom industry and                                     more susceptible to competition. We have identified five
                                                                                                                                                                                        the company’s return on new invested capital—the re-
company assumptions to feed income statement, balance                                       sources of economic moats: intangible assets, switching
                                                                                                                                                                                        turn on capital of the next dollar invested (“RONIC”)—to
sheet, and capital investment assumptions into our glob-                                    costs, network effect, cost advantage, and efficient scale.
                                                                                                                                                                                        decline (or rise) to its cost of capital. During the Stage II
ally standardized, proprietary discounted cash flow, or
                                                                                            Companies with a narrow moat are those we believe are                                       period, we use a formula to approximate cash flows in
DCF, modeling templates. We use scenario analysis, inde-
                                                                                            more likely than not to achieve normalized excess returns                                   lieu of explicitly modeling the income statement, balance
pth competitive advantage analysis, and a variety of other
                                                                                            for at least the next 10 years. Wide-moat companies are                                     sheet, and cash flow statement as we do in Stage I. The
analytical tools to augment this process. Moreover, we
                                                                                            those in which we have very high confidence that excess                                     length of the second stage depends on the strength of
think analyzing valuation through discounted cash flows
                                                                                            returns will remain for 10 years, with excess returns more                                  the company’s economic moat. We forecast this period to
presents a better lens for viewing cyclical companies,
                                                                                            likely than not to remain for at least 20 years. The longer                                 last anywhere from one year (for companies with no eco-
high-growth firms, businesses with finite lives (e.g.,
                                                                                            a firm generates economic profits, the higher its intrinsic                                 nomic moat) to 10–15 years or more (for wide-moat com-
mines), or companies expected to generate negative
                                                                                            value. We believe low-quality, no-moat companies will                                       panies). During this period, cash flows are forecast using
earnings over the next few years. That said, we don’t dis-
                                                                                            see their normalized returns gravitate toward the firm’s                                    four assumptions: an average growth rate for EBI over the
miss multiples altogether but rather use them as support-
                                                                                            cost of capital more quickly than companies with moats.                                     period, a normalized investment rate, average return on
ing cross-checks for our DCF-based fair value estimates.
                                                                                                                                                                                        new invested capital (RONIC), and the number of years
We also acknowledge that DCF models offer their own
                                                                                            When considering a company's moat, we also assess                                           until perpetuity, when excess returns cease. The invest-
challenges (including a potential proliferation of estim-
                                                                                            whether there is a substantial threat of value destruction,                                 ment rate and return on new invested capital decline un-
ated inputs and the possibility that the method may miss
                                                                                            stemming from risks related to ESG, industry disruption,                                    til a perpetuity value is calculated. In the case of firms
shortterm market-price movements), but we believe these
                                                                                            financial health, or other idiosyncratic issues. In this con-                               that do not earn their cost of capital, we assume marginal
negatives are mitigated by deep analysis and our
                                                                                            text, a risk is considered potentially value destructive if its                             ROICs rise to the firm’s cost of capital (usually attribut-
longterm approach.
                                                                                            occurrence would eliminate a firm’s economic profit on a                                    able to less reinvestment), and we may truncate the
                                                                                            cumulative or midcycle basis. If we deem the probability                                    second stage.
Morningstar’s equity research group (”we,” “our”) be-
lieves that a company’s intrinsic worth results from the                                    of occurrence sufficiently high, we would not characterize
                                                                                            the company as possessing an economic moat.                                                 Stage III: Perpetuity
future cash flows it can generate. The Morningstar Rating
                                                                                                                                                                                        Once a company’s marginal ROIC hits its cost of capital,
for stocks identifies stocks trading at a discount or premi-
                                                                                            2. Estimated Fair Value                                                                     we calculate a continuing value, using a standard per-
um to their intrinsic worth—or fair value estimate, in
                                                                                            Combining our analysts’ financial forecasts with the                                        petuity formula. At perpetuity, we assume that any
Morningstar terminology. Five-star stocks sell for the
                                                                                            firm’s economic moat helps us assess how long returns                                       growth or decline or investment in the business neither
biggest risk adjusted discount to their fair values, where-
                                                                                            on invested capital are likely to exceed the firm’s cost of                                 creates nor destroys value and that any new investment
as 1-star stocks trade at premiums to their intrinsic worth.
                                                                                            capital. Returns of firms with a wide economic moat rat-                                    provides a return in line with estimated WACC.
Four key components drive the Morningstar rating: (1) our                                   ing are assumed to fade to the perpetuity period over a
                                                                                            longer period of time than the returns of narrow-moat                                       Because a dollar earned today is worth more than a dollar
assessment of the firm’s economic moat, (2) our estimate
                                                                                            firms, and both will fade slower than no-moat firms, in-                                    earned tomorrow, we discount our projections of cash
of the stock’s fair value, (3) our uncertainty around that
                                                                                            creasing our estimate of their intrinsic value.                                             flows in stages I, II, and III to arrive at a total present
fair value estimate and (4) the current market price. This
                                                                                                                                                                                        value of expected future cash flows. Because we are
process ultimately culminates in our singlepoint star rat-
                                                                                            Our model is divided into three distinct stages:                                            modeling free cash flow to the firm—representing cash
ing.
                                                                                                                                                                                        available to provide a return to all capital providers—we
                                                                                                                                                                                        discount future cash flows using the WACC, which is a
1. Economic Moat                                                                            Stage I: Explicit Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                        weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and pre-
The concept of an economic moat plays a vital role not                                      In this stage, which can last five to 10 years, analysts
                                                                                                                                                                                        ferred stock (and any other funding sources), using ex-
only in our qualitative assessment of a firm’s long-term                                    make full financial statement forecasts, including items
                                                                                                                                                                                        pected future proportionate long-term, market-value
investment potential, but also in the actual calculation of                                 such as revenue, profit margins, tax rates, changes in
                                                                                                                                                                                        weights.
our fair value estimates. An economic moat is a structural                                  workingcapital accounts, and capital spending. Based on
feature that allows a firm to sustain excess profits over a                                 these projections, we calculate earnings before interest,
                                                                                                                                                                                        3. Uncertainty Around That Fair Value Estimate
long period of time. We define economic profits as re-                                      after taxes (EBI) and the net new investment (NNI) to de-
                                                                                                                                                                                        Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating is designed to capture
                                                                                                                                                                                        the range of potential outcomes for a company’s intrinsic
Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                        value. This rating is used to assign the margin of safety
                                                                                                                                                                                        required before investing, which in turn explicitly drives
                                                                                                                                                                                        our stock star rating system. The Uncertainty Rating is
                                                                                                                                                                                        aimed at identifying the confidence we should have in as-
                                                                                                                                                                                        signing a fair value estimate for a given stock.
thing that can affect our ability to accurately predict                                     Morningstar Equity Research Star Rating Methodology
these outcomes. The rating begins with a suggested rat-
ing produced by a quantitative process based on the trail-
ing 12-month standard deviation of daily stock returns.
An analyst overlay is then applied, with analysts using
the suggested rating, historical rating data, and their own
knowledge of the company to inform them as they make
the final Uncertainty Rating decision. Ultimately, the rat-
ing decision rests with the analyst. Analysts take into ac-
count many characteristics when making their final de-
cision, including cyclical factors, operational and financial
factors such as leverage, company-specific events, ESG
risks, and anything else that might increase the potential
dispersion of future outcomes and our ability to estimate
those outcomes.
4. Market Price                                                                             Our star ratings are guideposts to a broad audience and                                     Other Definitions
The market prices used in this analysis and noted in the                                    individuals must consider their own specific investment                                     Last Price: Price of the stock as of the close of the mar-
report come from exchange on which the stock is listed                                      goals, risk tolerance, tax situation, time horizon, income                                  ket of the last trading day before date of the report.
which we believe is a reliable source.                                                      needs, and complete investment portfolio, among other
                                                                                            factors.                                                                                    Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or
For more details about our methodology, please go to                                                                                                                                    Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the
https://shareholders.morningstar.com                                                        The Morningstar Star Ratings for stocks are defined be-                                     quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu-
                                                                                            low:                                                                                        lar emphasis on the firm’s balance sheet, investments,
Morningstar Star Rating for Stocks                                                          QQQQQ We believe appreciation beyond a fair risk ad-                                        and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan-
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                   ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and
governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                 Page 20 of 22
ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet                                       starting at zero (no risk) with lower scores representing                                   vice to any specific investor. Therefore, investments dis-
management, and dividend and share buyback policies.                                        less unmanaged risk and, for 95% of cases, the unman-                                       cussed herein may not be suitable for all investors; in-
Corporate governance factors are only considered if they                                    aged ESG Risk score is below 50.                                                            vestors must exercise their own independent judgment as
are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though                                                                                                                               to the suitability of such investments and recommenda-
either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis-                                   Based on their quantitative scores, companies are                                           tions in the light of their own investment objectives, ex-
tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem-                                    grouped into one of five Risk Categories (negligible, low,                                  perience, taxation status and financial position. Morning-
plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc-                                medium, high, severe). These risk categories are absolute,                                  star encourages Report recipients to read all relevant is-
ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de-                                  meaning that a ‘high risk’ assessment reflects a compar-                                    sue documents (e.g., prospectus) pertaining to the secur-
termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The                                       able degree of unmanaged ESG risk across all subindus-                                      ity concerned, including without limitation, information
Standard rating is most common as most managers will                                        tries covered.                                                                              relevant to its investment objectives, risks, and costs be-
exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc-                                                                                                                            fore making an investment decision and when deemed
ation.                                                                                      The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a visual representa-                                      necessary, to seek the advice of a financial, legal, tax,
                                                                                            tion of Sustainalytics ESG Risk Categories on a 1 to 5                                      and/or accounting professional. The information, data,
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri-                                 scale. Companies with Negligible Risk = 5 Globes, Low                                       analyses and opinions presented herein are not warran-
or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro-                                   Risk = 4, Medium Risk = 3 Globes, High Risk = 2 Globes,                                     ted to be accurate, correct, complete or timely. Unless
cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and                                   Severe Risk = 1 Globe. For more information, please visit                                   otherwise provided in a separate agreement, neither
dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con-                                     sustainalytics.com/esg-ratings/                                                             Morningstar, Inc. or the Equity Research Group repres-
sidered execution, compensation, related party transac-                                                                                                                                 ents that the report contents meet all of the presentation
tions, and accounting practices in the rating.                                              Ratings should not be used as the sole basis in evaluating                                  and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction
                                                                                            a company or security. Ratings involve unknown risks and                                    the recipient is located.
Capital Allocation Rating: Our Capital Allocation (or                                       uncertainties which may cause our expectations not to
Stewardship) Rating represents our assessment of the                                        occur or to differ significantly from what was expected                                     Except as otherwise required by law or provided for in a
quality of management’s capital allocation, with particu-                                   and should not be considered an offer or solicitation to                                    separate agreement, the analyst, Morningstar, Inc. and
lar emphasis on the firm’s balance sheet, investments,                                      buy or sell a security.                                                                     the Equity Research Group and their officers, directors
and shareholder distributions. Analysts consider compan-                                                                                                                                and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any
ies’ investment strategy and valuation, balance sheet                                       Risk Warning                                                                                trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from,
management, and dividend and share buyback policies.                                        Please note that investments in securities are subject to                                   or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions
Corporate governance factors are only considered if they                                    market and other risks and there is no assurance or guar-                                   within the report.
are likely to materially impact shareholder value, though                                   antee that the intended investment objectives will be
either the balance sheet, investment, or shareholder dis-                                   achieved. Past performance of a security may or may not                                     The Report and its contents are not directed to, or inten-
tributions. Analysts assign one of three ratings: "Exem-                                    be sustained in future and is no indication of future per-                                  ded for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who
plary", "Standard", or "Poor". Analysts judge Capital Alloc-                                formance. A security investment return and an investor’s                                    is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
ation from an equity holder’s perspective. Ratings are de-                                  principal value will fluctuate so that, when redeemed, an                                   country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, pub-
termined on a forward looking and absolute basis. The                                       investor’s shares may be worth more or less than their                                      lication, availability or use would be contrary to law or
Standard rating is most common as most managers will                                        original cost. A security’s current investment performance                                  regulation or which would subject Morningstar, Inc. or its
exhibit neither exceptionally strong nor poor capital alloc-                                may be lower or higher than the investment performance                                      affiliates to any registration or licensing requirements in
ation.                                                                                      noted within the report. Morningstar’s Uncertainty Rating                                   such jurisdiction.
                                                                                            serves as a useful data point with respect to sensitivity
Capital Allocation (or Stewardship) analysis published pri-                                 analysis of the assumptions used in our determining a fair                                  Where this report is made available in a language other
or to Dec. 9, 2020, was determined using a different pro-                                   value price.                                                                                than English and in the case of inconsistencies between
cess. Beyond investment strategy, financial leverage, and                                                                                                                               the English and translated versions of the report, the Eng-
dividend and share buyback policies, analysts also con-                                                                                                                                 lish version will control and supersede any ambiguities
sidered execution, compensation, related party transac-                                     General Disclosure                                                                          associated with any part or section of a report that has
tions, and accounting practices in the rating.                                                                                                                                          been issued in a foreign language. Neither the analyst,
                                                                                            Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, re-
                                                                                            cipients accessing this report may only use it in the coun-                                 Morningstar, Inc., or the Equity Research Group guaran-
Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating Assessment:The ESG                                                                                                                                       tees the accuracy of the translations.
                                                                                            try in which the Morningstar distributor is based. Unless
Risk Rating Assessment is provided by Sustainalytics; a
                                                                                            stated otherwise, the original distributor of the report is
Morningstar company.                                                                                                                                                                    This report may be distributed in certain localities, coun-
                                                                                            Morningstar Research Services LLC, a U.S.A. domiciled
                                                                                            financial institution.                                                                      tries and/or jurisdictions (“Territories”) by independent
Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk Ratings measure the degree to                                                                                                                                  third parties or independent intermediaries and/or distrib-
which company’s economic value at risk is driven by en-                                                                                                                                 utors (“Distributors”). Such Distributors are not acting as
                                                                                            This Report is for informational purposes, should not be
vironment, social and governance (ESG) factors.                                                                                                                                         agents or representatives of the analyst, Morningstar,
                                                                                            the sole piece of information used in making an invest-
                                                                                            ment decision, and has no regard to the specific invest-                                    Inc. or the Equity Research Group. In Territories where a
Sustainalytics analyzes over 1,300 data points to assess a                                                                                                                              Distributor distributes our report, the Distributor is solely
                                                                                            ment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of
company’s exposure to and management of ESG risks. In                                                                                                                                   responsible for complying with all applicable regulations,
                                                                                            any specific recipient. This publication is intended to
other words, ESG Risk Ratings measures a company’s un-                                                                                                                                  laws, rules, circulars, codes and guidelines established by
                                                                                            provide information to assist investors in making their
managed ESG Risks represented as a quantitative score.                                                                                                                                  local and/or regional regulatory bodies, including laws in
                                                                                            own investment decisions, not to provide investment ad-
Unmanaged Risk is measured on an open-ended scale
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions                     ®
presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The
opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ß
from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner,
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Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                                 Page 21 of 22
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Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 18 Jan 2025 09:34, UTC | Reporting Currency: HKD | Trading Currency: HKD | Exchange: HONG KONG EXCHANGES AND CLEARING LTD                                                          Page 22 of 22
© Morningstar 2025. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions              ®
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