10 JBS Slides
10 JBS Slides
Key Question How can JBS sustain its growth and maintain its position as a global leader?
JBS is a global leader in the meat processing industry with 104+ key partners in 15+ countries. In addition to the food
Business Model sector, they operate in segments related to their value chain and employs 100% in-house production
JBS and its three biggest competitors makes up of ~53% of market share, with JBS leading at ~19%. This is due to their
Success Factors unique business model allowing them access to key markets and inputs their competitors cannot
Current Strategy: leverage existing M&A experience Proposed Strategy: acquire Ahimsa Foods and
Strategy and explore potential acquisition opportunities in expand into the plant-based meat market in India;
the Asian and Middle Eastern market in the long-term, expand Ahimsa into Middle East
Our recommendation is the final step in JBS capturing the global plant-based market, which in the long term will help
Impact JBS build sustainable competitive advantage
Largest Producer in
#1 Global Beef #1 Global Poultry #2 Global Pork Leading Lamb
semi- and finished
Producer Producer Producer Producer
leather
In addition to the food sector, they also operate in segments related to their value chain including leather, personal care and cleaning products,
collagen, metal packaging, casings, biodiesel, transportation, waste management, and recycling
JBS is a leading global meat processing company with 104+ brands globally to provide a variety of products to meet ever-changing expectations and market
trends
Sources: JBS
JBS In-House Production Value Chains
JBS has 400+ production units in 15+ countries: from farms, to feedlots, to processing facilities, they are involved and in control of every step
in the value chain which is fundamental to their success and a large part of their ability to maintain market share.
Key Partners
JBS operates in 15+ countries and maintains close relationships with its global partners while maintaining a strong and credible brand image through various
initiatives
MARKET SHARE
JBS SA 19%
US Meat Processing Industry Growth: 7.2%
European Market 2020-2025F CAGR: 2.47%
Other 47%
Tyson 16%
Cargill 11%
Smithfield 7%
In 2018, the largest 4 firms shared 53% of market share in the $227.6B
meat processing industry. The market volume for JBS is 275,000 Annualized Market Size Growth: 0%
customers in 190 countries
With ~19% market share, JBS is a global leader alongside Tyson, Cargill, and Smithfield; however, with slowing market size growth, it is important to consider
evolving market trends
Their sustainable success is achieved What market trend is driving this consumption change?
through access to key markets and inputs –
they ensure quality with 100% control over all
In the last year, plant-based meat industry has experienced a 264%
key inputs starting with their animals, to
their feedlots, to providing medical and growth. In alignment with JBS’ strategy and current expansion plans to
technical assistance during the entire period capture the plant-based meat market, we recommend further
in which the animals are housed investments into Planterra/Vivera to penetrate the global market and
better serve the ever-evolving needs of JBS’ consumers
Historically, JBS has achieved sustainable success in the meat processing industry
Their sustainable success is achieved What market trend is driving this consumption change?
through access to key markets and inputs –
they ensure quality with 100% control over all
In the last year, plant-based meat industry has experienced a 264%
key inputs starting with their animals, to
their feedlots, to providing medical and growth. In alignment with JBS’ strategy and current expansion plans to
technical assistance during the entire period capture the plant-based meat market, we recommend further
in which the animals are housed investments to penetrate the global market and better serve the ever-
evolving needs of JBS’ consumers
In order to maintain its position as a global leader, JBS should consider strategic partnerships similar to its recent acquisitions of Planterra/Vivera to further
capture the plant-based meat market globally
~29% of the population have a vegetarian diet, which is a 5% increase from 2020. According to a study conducted by Good Food
Why India?
Institute, ~63% of non-vegetarians responded saying they are likely to purchase plant-based meat on a regular basis
We recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India (ST) and the Middle East (LT)
In addition to India having the largest consumer base and one of the biggest vegetarian population, growing environmental (GHG emissions) and consumer
health concerns are acting as strong catalysts for a massive plant-based meat market
Expansive
This will allow JBS to capture the Israel, in particular, has the
Ahimsa market opportunity in India largest plant-based alternatives
Acquire
Expands
Ahimsa while allowing Ahimsa Foods consumer base. Considering the
into Middle
Foods better access across the country. proximity to India and scalability
East
This is in alignment with JBS’ AF will achieve through JBS, this
current strategy and their recent long-term objective is feasible
acquisition of Vivera and and aligns with JBS’ current
Planterra long-term expansion plans
Protective
ST LT
In the short- to mid-term, we recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India; in the long-term, we recommend JBS leverage the acquisition of
Ahimsa Foods and expand into the Middle East
~29% of the population have a vegetarian diet, which is a 5% increase from 2020. According to a study conducted by Good Food
Why India?
Institute, ~63% of non-vegetarians responded saying they are likely to purchase plant-based meat on a regular basis
In addition to India having the largest consumer base and one of the biggest vegetarian population, growing environmental (GHG emissions) and consumer
health concerns are acting as strong catalysts for a massive plant-based meat market
Nash Equilibrium demonstrates that the Indian Market is the ideal candidate
US Market Size
• Phase 1: $1B – growth lower compared to India
• US penetration rate: 0.12 0.07 (considering high competition)
• Market share decreases from 120M to 70M
First Mover Advantage for competitors in US market, leading JBS to India Market
1) Acquiring the Trade Data and applying log function across the
variables: TRADE, Country I GDP, Country J GDP, distance between
countries
2) Regress and obtain coefficients and equation
3) Keep 2 other variables constant to visualize distance variable
4) According to model, US exports to India should be much lower
5) Potential error terms may include political preference
Gravity Law model shows that US trade exports to India is abnormally high
Sources: USDA
Recommended Strategy: Market Size in India
We recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India (ST) and the Middle East (LT)
Market Value:
Target Customers: Market Volume: Projected Purchases:
2400*7,098,864.22 =
Market Size 0.29*(1,398,790,980) = 0.35*405,649,384.2 = 0.05*141,977,284.47 =
INR$17.04B =
405,649,384.2 141,977,284.47 7,098,864.22
USD$227M
The plant-based meat market in India is forecasted to be USD$700M by 2026. With emerging trends and growing target customer base, we believe that an
assumption of 35% market penetration and 5% purchase rate is conservative and values Ahimsa’s market at USD$227M after acquisition
Aside from saturated markets (Europe and U.S.) and India, Middle East shows the highest plant-based meat industry market growth
In alignment with two of their current strategies, we believe the acquisition of Ahimsa Foods will allow JBS to capture synergies and expand its production
and distribution capacity in a new market they have been exploring to enter
Successful Precedent: Vivera European Market Successful Precedent: Planterra North American Market
JBS recently acquired Vivera to serve the European market and Planterra to serve the North American market; based on successful precedents, we are
confident that JBS can apply their recent experience to the potential acquisition of Ahimsa Food to capture the Indian market
• Tariff values
• Total export value (Brazil to
India) $2.89B Conclusion: Based on our calculations,
T = Per Unit Trade Cost $1.176M • Soybean Oil + Dried Legumes replication is more costly than exporting;
(10.9%) and since we do not want to export, we
• 071339: vegetables, leguminous must explore FDI
(MFN/Applied 30%)
With our proposed strategy, India would become the home country and the targeted exporting countries would be Lebanon, UAE, and Israel
Therefore, by centralization in India, this would mean that both Upstream activities such as plant processing, product creation, and innovation as well as
Downstream activities such as packaging and quality control would occur in India.
Furthermore, through this acquisition, due to the capital size and backing of JBS, production levels within India will have a higher PLEoS experiencing
lower marginal production cost
Founded in New Delhi in 2008, Ahimsa Foods is the earliest entrant in the
plant-based meat industry in India. The company offers its products
under the brand Veggie Champ In the area Ahimsa
currently dominates, the
vegetarian population is
~32%-50%
They have a diversity of product offerings including Shami Kebab, Meat,
Chicken, Drumsticks, Fillet, etc. JBS can help Ahimsa
scale their business
across India (and beyond)
to reach more target
Gap: Based in New Delhi, Ahimsa Foods Veggie Champ currently sells customers
only in local farm markets and selective items are only available in certain
regions
The acquisition is mutually beneficial as it allows JBS to capture the market opportunity in India and help Ahimsa Foods scale their business to reach more
target customers
• JBS has a strong brand image that is recognized globally • Entering into a new market means uncertainty – JBS does not understand
the market as well as local start-ups and they are unfamiliar with this new
• JBS is bigger than most of the plant-based start-ups located in India, which customer segment with different cultural preferences and expectations
means they are better equipped to overcome challenges, capture market
opportunities, etc. • There is a high threat of substitutes since India has many established plant-
based foods to serve their large vegetarian population
• JBS is entering into a market that has not been fully capitalized on
JBS acquiring Ahimsa is strategic since Ahimsa can help JBS overcome competitive disadvantages and JBS can leverage its credible brand image and access
to resources to help Ahimsa scale its operations
JBS should acquire Ahimsa Foods between the 151M – 196M spread
2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
All figures in USD Millions
Revenue 5.40 7.25 14.40 26.04 43.81 69.86 107.12 159.64 233.10 335.47 477.85 675.71
Implementing this strategy has an upper bound NPV of $406M (acquired at $151M) and a lower bound of $362M (acquired at $196M)
Under/Overvaluation =
1 - (8.20 INR/BRL ÷ 13.176 INR/BRL) = 0.377
Enter a forward contract to set a currency exchange price for the future, an amount at or above spot (today's) rate of 13.176 INR/BRL
Pursue this strategy to lock in the value of the foreign currency through the exchange rate to offset potential loss
Steps:
1. Borrow BRL
2. Sell BRL, buy INR at the spot rate (today's rate)
3. Invest the INR at India's interest rate
4. Pay INR
Use various currency exchange hedging strategies to forth-set the payment JBS will make in the future and avoid fluctuation risks
Sources: XE Currency Charts, World Trade Organization, Kikkawa COMM 498, World Integrated Trade Solution
Overview
Key Question How can JBS sustain its growth and maintain its position as a global leader?
JBS is a global leader in the meat processing industry with 104+ key partners in 15+ countries. In addition to the food
Business Model sector, they operate in segments related to their value chain and employs 100% in-house production
JBS and its three biggest competitors makes up of ~53% of market share, with JBS leading at ~19%. This is due to their
Success Factors unique business model allowing them access to key markets and inputs their competitors cannot
Current Strategy: leverage existing M&A experience Proposed Strategy: acquire Ahimsa Foods and
Strategy and explore potential acquisition opportunities in expand into the plant-based meat market in India;
the Asian and Middle Eastern market in the long-term, expand Ahimsa into Middle East
Our recommendation is the final step in JBS capturing the global plant-based market, which in the long term will help
Impact JBS build sustainable competitive advantage
• Revenue Assumptions: 10% global industry growth; 20% Indian Industry growth; 70% trailing
average of Ahimsa Foods internal revenue growth
NPV
• COGS and Operating Expenses: % of revenue (22% and 31.5% respectively)
PV(UFCF) of Forecast Period 557.88 • Change in NWC: Allow for adjustments – cannot be forecasted without PPE & inventory info
NPV Lower Bound 406.88 • WACC: Considered JBS’ target debt/equity
NPV Upper Bound 361.88 • NPV: Considers lower and upper bound of acquisition spread
Appendix B: Comparable Company Analysis
Plant & Co. Modern Plant-Based Foods
• Plant & Co. is one of the first plant-based butcher shop in North • Based in Vancouver, they offer a range of plant-based food products
America and services including meat alternatives, homemade style soups…
• Their products can be purchased at Whole Foods, Choices, and • They have two retail stores in Vancouver and have acquired 4
other local stores (~8 store presence) brands (vegan bar and snacks)
• 2020 revenue: $0.71M • 2020 revenue: $1.46M
• Both Plant & Co. and Modern Plant-Based Foods have similar business models as Ahimsa Foods – Ahimsa as one of the first entrants have established a
strong brand name and they have acquired 1 brand operating in Toronto, Canada
• However, considering that both Plant & Co. and Modern Plant-Based Foods are bigger in size (EoS, scalability, operations, PPE), we applied a discount
rate of 30% in order to obtain a more accurate spread of Ahimsa Foods’ EV
Appendix C: Market Sizing
We recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India (ST) and the Middle East (LT)
Market Value:
Target Customers: Market Volume: Projected Purchases:
2400*7,098,864.22 =
0.29*(1,398,790,980) = 0.35*405,649,384.2 = 0.05*141,977,284.47 =
INR$17.04B =
405,649,384.2 141,977,284.47 7,098,864.22
USD$227M
Market Size
Projected Purchases is Market Value is their
Market Volume is their
the percentage of the market value times a
penetration rate times
target market volume target customer’s
Target Customers is the target customers. 20% is
that would purchase average annual
percentage of India’s JBS’ affiliated brands’
from Ahimsa. Given the spending. INR$2400 is a
population that are average penetration
vegetarian population conservative estimate
vegetarians (29% of their rate; given the Indian
that chooses plant- assuming each
entire population) market, we believe this
based meat and customer makes one
is a conservative
Ahimsa’s current base, package purchase a
estimate
we assume 5% month
Beyond Meat is planning to expand into India with their Beyond Burgers and
Sausages at store and online locations across the country. One problem that
Beyond will face is that many Indian consumers are not looking for westernized
products like burgers and sausages but rather plant-based products that replicate
traditional Indian food dishes.
Moreover, although Beyond Meat has a global presence similar to that of JBS,
their biggest competitive disadvantage is that they have never operated in India
before and do not understand the customer needs as much as local plant-based
meat companies do. Their lack of experience will be a huge hindrance to
capturing market share in India, given their unique taste and expectations for
meat substitutes