10 JBS Slides
10 JBS Slides
Key Question How can JBS sustain its growth and maintain its position as a global leader?
                  JBS is a global leader in the meat processing industry with 104+ key partners in 15+ countries. In addition to the food
Business Model            sector, they operate in segments related to their value chain and employs 100% in-house production
                  JBS and its three biggest competitors makes up of ~53% of market share, with JBS leading at ~19%. This is due to their
Success Factors             unique business model allowing them access to key markets and inputs their competitors cannot
                  Current Strategy: leverage existing M&A experience                      Proposed Strategy: acquire Ahimsa Foods and
Strategy           and explore potential acquisition opportunities in                   expand into the plant-based meat market in India;
                        the Asian and Middle Eastern market                             in the long-term, expand Ahimsa into Middle East
                   Our recommendation is the final step in JBS capturing the global plant-based market, which in the long term will help
Impact                                                JBS build sustainable competitive advantage
                                                                                                                                     Largest Producer in
       #1 Global Beef                #1 Global Poultry                 #2 Global Pork                   Leading Lamb
                                                                                                                                     semi- and finished
          Producer                       Producer                        Producer                         Producer
                                                                                                                                           leather
     In addition to the food sector, they also operate in segments related to their value chain including leather, personal care and cleaning products,
                              collagen, metal packaging, casings, biodiesel, transportation, waste management, and recycling
   JBS is a leading global meat processing company with 104+ brands globally to provide a variety of products to meet ever-changing expectations and market
                                                                           trends
Sources: JBS
 JBS In-House Production Value Chains
JBS has 400+ production units in 15+ countries: from farms, to feedlots, to processing facilities, they are involved and in control of every step
           in the value chain which is fundamental to their success and a large part of their ability to maintain market share.
Key Partners
      JBS operates in 15+ countries and maintains close relationships with its global partners while maintaining a strong and credible brand image through various
                                                                                  initiatives
                                 MARKET SHARE
                                                       JBS SA 19%
                                                                                                                 US Meat Processing Industry Growth: 7.2%
                                                                                                                 European Market 2020-2025F CAGR: 2.47%
                   Other 47%
                                                             Tyson 16%
                                                       Cargill 11%
                                       Smithfield 7%
   In 2018, the largest 4 firms shared 53% of market share in the $227.6B
      meat processing industry. The market volume for JBS is 275,000                                                 Annualized Market Size Growth: 0%
                            customers in 190 countries
   With ~19% market share, JBS is a global leader alongside Tyson, Cargill, and Smithfield; however, with slowing market size growth, it is important to consider
                                                                     evolving market trends
                                      Their sustainable success is achieved                 What market trend is driving this consumption change?
                                   through access to key markets and inputs –
                                  they ensure quality with 100% control over all
                                                                                           In the last year, plant-based meat industry has experienced a 264%
                                     key inputs starting with their animals, to
                                     their feedlots, to providing medical and            growth. In alignment with JBS’ strategy and current expansion plans to
                                  technical assistance during the entire period               capture the plant-based meat market, we recommend further
                                         in which the animals are housed                  investments into Planterra/Vivera to penetrate the global market and
                                                                                                  better serve the ever-evolving needs of JBS’ consumers
Historically, JBS has achieved sustainable success in the meat processing industry
                                      Their sustainable success is achieved                  What market trend is driving this consumption change?
                                   through access to key markets and inputs –
                                  they ensure quality with 100% control over all
                                                                                           In the last year, plant-based meat industry has experienced a 264%
                                     key inputs starting with their animals, to
                                     their feedlots, to providing medical and             growth. In alignment with JBS’ strategy and current expansion plans to
                                  technical assistance during the entire period               capture the plant-based meat market, we recommend further
                                         in which the animals are housed                  investments to penetrate the global market and better serve the ever-
                                                                                                              evolving needs of JBS’ consumers
    In order to maintain its position as a global leader, JBS should consider strategic partnerships similar to its recent acquisitions of Planterra/Vivera to further
                                                             capture the plant-based meat market globally
                         ~29% of the population have a vegetarian diet, which is a 5% increase from 2020. According to a study conducted by Good Food
  Why India?
                             Institute, ~63% of non-vegetarians responded saying they are likely to purchase plant-based meat on a regular basis
We recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India (ST) and the Middle East (LT)
  In addition to India having the largest consumer base and one of the biggest vegetarian population, growing environmental (GHG emissions) and consumer
                                       health concerns are acting as strong catalysts for a massive plant-based meat market
Expansive
                                                                              This will allow JBS to capture the         Israel, in particular, has the
                                               Ahimsa                            market opportunity in India          largest plant-based alternatives
                      Acquire
                                               Expands
                      Ahimsa                                                    while allowing Ahimsa Foods           consumer base. Considering the
                                             into Middle
                       Foods                                                  better access across the country.       proximity to India and scalability
                                                 East
                                                                                This is in alignment with JBS’        AF will achieve through JBS, this
                                                                              current strategy and their recent        long-term objective is feasible
                                                                                  acquisition of Vivera and             and aligns with JBS’ current
                                                                                            Planterra                    long-term expansion plans
  Protective
                 ST                                 LT
In the short- to mid-term, we recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India; in the long-term, we recommend JBS leverage the acquisition of
                                                    Ahimsa Foods and expand into the Middle East
                         ~29% of the population have a vegetarian diet, which is a 5% increase from 2020. According to a study conducted by Good Food
  Why India?
                             Institute, ~63% of non-vegetarians responded saying they are likely to purchase plant-based meat on a regular basis
  In addition to India having the largest consumer base and one of the biggest vegetarian population, growing environmental (GHG emissions) and consumer
                                       health concerns are acting as strong catalysts for a massive plant-based meat market
Nash Equilibrium demonstrates that the Indian Market is the ideal candidate
                                                                            US Market Size
                                                                            • Phase 1: $1B – growth lower compared to India
                                                                            • US penetration rate: 0.12  0.07 (considering high competition)
                                                                                • Market share decreases from 120M to 70M
First Mover Advantage for competitors in US market, leading JBS to India Market
                                                                                    1)   Acquiring the Trade Data and applying log function across the
                                                                                         variables: TRADE, Country I GDP, Country J GDP, distance between
                                                                                         countries
                                                                                    2)   Regress and obtain coefficients and equation
                                                                                    3)   Keep 2 other variables constant to visualize distance variable
                                                                                    4)   According to model, US exports to India should be much lower
                                                                                    5)   Potential error terms may include political preference
Gravity Law model shows that US trade exports to India is abnormally high
Sources: USDA
 Recommended Strategy: Market Size in India
                           We recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India (ST) and the Middle East (LT)
                                                                                                                                     Market Value:
                                    Target Customers:                Market Volume:                 Projected Purchases:
                                                                                                                                  2400*7,098,864.22 =
        Market Size                0.29*(1,398,790,980) =          0.35*405,649,384.2 =             0.05*141,977,284.47 =
                                                                                                                                  INR$17.04B =
                                   405,649,384.2                   141,977,284.47                    7,098,864.22
                                                                                                                                   USD$227M
   The plant-based meat market in India is forecasted to be USD$700M by 2026. With emerging trends and growing target customer base, we believe that an
            assumption of 35% market penetration and 5% purchase rate is conservative and values Ahimsa’s market at USD$227M after acquisition
Aside from saturated markets (Europe and U.S.) and India, Middle East shows the highest plant-based meat industry market growth
    In alignment with two of their current strategies, we believe the acquisition of Ahimsa Foods will allow JBS to capture synergies and expand its production
                                            and distribution capacity in a new market they have been exploring to enter
Successful Precedent: Vivera  European Market Successful Precedent: Planterra  North American Market
      JBS recently acquired Vivera to serve the European market and Planterra to serve the North American market; based on successful precedents, we are
                  confident that JBS can apply their recent experience to the potential acquisition of Ahimsa Food to capture the Indian market
                                                                                      • Tariff values
                                                                              • Total export value (Brazil to
                                                                                        India) $2.89B                    Conclusion: Based on our calculations,
       T = Per Unit Trade Cost                      $1.176M                  • Soybean Oil + Dried Legumes             replication is more costly than exporting;
                                                                                           (10.9%)                      and since we do not want to export, we
                                                                            • 071339: vegetables, leguminous                        must explore FDI
                                                                                    (MFN/Applied 30%)
With our proposed strategy, India would become the home country and the targeted exporting countries would be Lebanon, UAE, and Israel
   Therefore, by centralization in India, this would mean that both Upstream activities such as plant processing, product creation, and innovation as well as
                                        Downstream activities such as packaging and quality control would occur in India.
    Furthermore, through this acquisition, due to the capital size and backing of JBS, production levels within India will have a higher PLEoS experiencing
                                                                 lower marginal production cost
 Founded in New Delhi in 2008, Ahimsa Foods is the earliest entrant in the
   plant-based meat industry in India. The company offers its products
                   under the brand Veggie Champ                                                                                          In the area Ahimsa
                                                                                                                                      currently dominates, the
                                                                                                                                      vegetarian population is
                                                                                                                                              ~32%-50%
   They have a diversity of product offerings including Shami Kebab, Meat,
                        Chicken, Drumsticks, Fillet, etc.                                                                              JBS can help Ahimsa
                                                                                                                                        scale their business
                                                                                                                                     across India (and beyond)
                                                                                                                                       to reach more target
   Gap: Based in New Delhi, Ahimsa Foods Veggie Champ currently sells                                                                        customers
  only in local farm markets and selective items are only available in certain
                                   regions
   The acquisition is mutually beneficial as it allows JBS to capture the market opportunity in India and help Ahimsa Foods scale their business to reach more
                                                                          target customers
•   JBS has a strong brand image that is recognized globally                         •   Entering into a new market means uncertainty – JBS does not understand
                                                                                         the market as well as local start-ups and they are unfamiliar with this new
•   JBS is bigger than most of the plant-based start-ups located in India, which         customer segment with different cultural preferences and expectations
    means they are better equipped to overcome challenges, capture market
    opportunities, etc.                                                              •   There is a high threat of substitutes since India has many established plant-
                                                                                         based foods to serve their large vegetarian population
•   JBS is entering into a market that has not been fully capitalized on
JBS acquiring Ahimsa is strategic since Ahimsa can help JBS overcome competitive disadvantages and JBS can leverage its credible brand image and access
                                                      to resources to help Ahimsa scale its operations
JBS should acquire Ahimsa Foods between the 151M – 196M spread
                                       2019A       2020A      2021E     2022E     2023E     2024E      2025E     2026E    2027E    2028E    2029E    2030E
All figures in USD Millions
Revenue                                 5.40        7.25      14.40     26.04     43.81      69.86    107.12     159.64   233.10   335.47   477.85   675.71
Implementing this strategy has an upper bound NPV of $406M (acquired at $151M) and a lower bound of $362M (acquired at $196M)
                                                                                                    Under/Overvaluation =
                                                                                                    1 - (8.20 INR/BRL ÷ 13.176 INR/BRL) = 0.377
Enter a forward contract to set a currency exchange price for the future, an amount at or above spot (today's) rate of 13.176 INR/BRL
        Pursue this strategy to lock in the value of the foreign currency through the exchange rate to offset potential loss
                                          Steps:
                                          1. Borrow BRL
                                          2. Sell BRL, buy INR at the spot rate (today's rate)
                                          3. Invest the INR at India's interest rate
                                          4. Pay INR
Use various currency exchange hedging strategies to forth-set the payment JBS will make in the future and avoid fluctuation risks
Sources: XE Currency Charts, World Trade Organization, Kikkawa COMM 498, World Integrated Trade Solution
Overview
Key Question How can JBS sustain its growth and maintain its position as a global leader?
                  JBS is a global leader in the meat processing industry with 104+ key partners in 15+ countries. In addition to the food
Business Model            sector, they operate in segments related to their value chain and employs 100% in-house production
                  JBS and its three biggest competitors makes up of ~53% of market share, with JBS leading at ~19%. This is due to their
Success Factors             unique business model allowing them access to key markets and inputs their competitors cannot
                  Current Strategy: leverage existing M&A experience                      Proposed Strategy: acquire Ahimsa Foods and
Strategy           and explore potential acquisition opportunities in                   expand into the plant-based meat market in India;
                        the Asian and Middle Eastern market                             in the long-term, expand Ahimsa into Middle East
                   Our recommendation is the final step in JBS capturing the global plant-based market, which in the long term will help
Impact                                                JBS build sustainable competitive advantage
                                                                   • Revenue Assumptions: 10% global industry growth; 20% Indian Industry growth; 70% trailing
                                                                                        average of Ahimsa Foods internal revenue growth
  NPV
                                                                           • COGS and Operating Expenses: % of revenue (22% and 31.5% respectively)
  PV(UFCF) of Forecast Period                557.88                • Change in NWC: Allow for adjustments – cannot be forecasted without PPE & inventory info
  NPV Lower Bound                            406.88                                      • WACC: Considered JBS’ target debt/equity
  NPV Upper Bound                            361.88                             • NPV: Considers lower and upper bound of acquisition spread
Appendix B: Comparable Company Analysis
                            Plant & Co.                                                               Modern Plant-Based Foods
 • Plant & Co. is one of the first plant-based butcher shop in North               • Based in Vancouver, they offer a range of plant-based food products
                                  America                                             and services including meat alternatives, homemade style soups…
 • Their products can be purchased at Whole Foods, Choices, and                       • They have two retail stores in Vancouver and have acquired 4
                  other local stores (~8 store presence)                                                brands (vegan bar and snacks)
                       • 2020 revenue: $0.71M                                                             • 2020 revenue: $1.46M
• Both Plant & Co. and Modern Plant-Based Foods have similar business models as Ahimsa Foods – Ahimsa as one of the first entrants have established a
                                   strong brand name and they have acquired 1 brand operating in Toronto, Canada
 • However, considering that both Plant & Co. and Modern Plant-Based Foods are bigger in size (EoS, scalability, operations, PPE), we applied a discount
                                       rate of 30% in order to obtain a more accurate spread of Ahimsa Foods’ EV
 Appendix C: Market Sizing
                           We recommend JBS acquire Ahimsa Foods and expand into India (ST) and the Middle East (LT)
                                                                                                                                  Market Value:
                                    Target Customers:                 Market Volume:                 Projected Purchases:
                                                                                                                               2400*7,098,864.22 =
                                   0.29*(1,398,790,980) =           0.35*405,649,384.2 =             0.05*141,977,284.47 =
                                                                                                                               INR$17.04B =
                                   405,649,384.2                    141,977,284.47                    7,098,864.22
                                                                                                                                USD$227M
        Market Size
                                                                                                     Projected Purchases is     Market Value is their
                                                                    Market Volume is their
                                                                                                     the percentage of the     market value times a
                                                                    penetration rate times
                                                                                                     target market volume        target customer’s
                                  Target Customers is the          target customers. 20% is
                                                                                                      that would purchase         average annual
                                    percentage of India’s            JBS’ affiliated brands’
                                                                                                    from Ahimsa. Given the    spending. INR$2400 is a
                                     population that are              average penetration
                                                                                                     vegetarian population     conservative estimate
                                  vegetarians (29% of their          rate; given the Indian
                                                                                                       that chooses plant-        assuming each
                                     entire population)             market, we believe this
                                                                                                         based meat and        customer makes one
                                                                        is a conservative
                                                                                                     Ahimsa’s current base,     package purchase a
                                                                             estimate
                                                                                                          we assume 5%                month
                                     Beyond Meat is planning to expand into India with their Beyond Burgers and
                                      Sausages at store and online locations across the country. One problem that
                                    Beyond will face is that many Indian consumers are not looking for westernized
                                   products like burgers and sausages but rather plant-based products that replicate
                                                              traditional Indian food dishes.
                                    Moreover, although Beyond Meat has a global presence similar to that of JBS,
                                   their biggest competitive disadvantage is that they have never operated in India
                                   before and do not understand the customer needs as much as local plant-based
                                       meat companies do. Their lack of experience will be a huge hindrance to
                                    capturing market share in India, given their unique taste and expectations for
                                                                  meat substitutes