Government of India

Earth System Science Organization

Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department

Press Release: Dated: 21st August, 2025

Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended range Forecast for the next
two weeks (21st August to 03rd September 2025)

1. Salient Observed Features for the week ending 20th August 2025:
❖ Rapid revival of Monsoon from 14 August due to back to back Low Pressure
System (LPS) formation over Bay of Bengal and their west-northwest
movements, with second LPS concentrated into a Dep. Shifting of the
monsoon trough to south and it was south of its normal position in most dates
of the the week. Thus, active monsoon conditions prevailed over central and
south peninsular India during the week and the weekly cumulative rainfall over
most of the meteorological sub-divisions of central and south peninsular India was
normal to above normal rainfall during the week. All-India weekly rainfall departure
was 22% above than the long period average.
❖ West coast mainly Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan including
Mumbai and parts of South Gujarat received extreme heavy rain spell during 15-
20 August and it was due to i) a Depression over west central and adjoining
northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts and ii)
Stronger east-west shear line, and iii) an upper air cyclonic circulation over
northeast Arabian Sea and neighbourhood. Heavy to very heavy rainfall with
exceptionally heavy falls was also observed over Konkan (Matheran (dist Raigad)
– 44 cm) & Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra (Tamini (Pune) – 57 cm; Lonavala
ARG (dist Pune) – 43 cm; Mahabaleshwar (dist Satara) – 30 cm) on 20th August.
❖ Extremely heavy rainfall spell and urban floods over Mumbai during 15-20
August, 2025: Mumbai and its sub-urban area received prolonged heavy rainfall
spell during 15-20 August with extremely heavy rainfall at Santacruz Airport of
87.5 cm during 15-20 August with 3 days extremely heavy rainfall i.e. on 15-16
August, 18-19 August, and 19-20 August (A very long and extreme rain spell after
11-21 July, 2021).
❖ Last week’s Low Pressure Area over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of
Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coasts lay over northwest &
 adjoining areas of westcentral Bay of Bengal and south Odisha-north Andhra
Pradesh coasts at 0830 hrs IST of 14th August; lay over south Odisha & adjoining
north Andhra Pradesh coast at 0830 hrs IST of 15 th August; lay over south
Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood at 0830 hrs IST of 16th August; lay over Vidarbha
& neighbourhood at 0530 hrs IST of 17th August and became less marked at 0530
hrs IST of 18th August. It caused very heavy to isolated extremely heavy rainfall
over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 14th August, Telangana during 14th –
16th August, Madhya Maharashtra during 16th – 18th August, Marathwada on 18th
August.
❖ Formation of a Depression over northwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of
Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh - south Odisha coasts: Under the influence of
an upper air cyclonic circulation over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of
Bengal off south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts, a Low Pressure Area
formed over the same region at 0830 hrs IST of 17th August; lay as a Well-Marked
Low Pressure Area over westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal & north
Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coasts at 0530 hrs IST of 18th August. It moved
northwestwards and concentrated into a Depression and lay centred at 1730 hours
IST of 18th August over northwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal and north
Andhra Pradesh - south Odisha coasts, near latitude 18.9°N and longitude 85.0°E,
about 40 km south-southeast of Gopalpur. It further moved north-northwestwards
and crossed South Odisha coast close to Gopalpur during early morning of 19th
August and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST over south coastal Odisha, near latitude
19.3°N and longitude 84.8°E, close to west of Gopalpur. Moving west-
northwestwards, it weakened into a Well-Marked Low Pressure Area and lay over
central parts of Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood at 1730 hrs IST of 19th August and
further weakened into a Low Pressure Area over central parts of Chhattisgarh and
adjoining east Madhya Pradesh at 0530 hrs IST of 20 th August and became less
marked at 0830 hrs IST of the same day. It caused very heavy to extremely heavy
rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 18th August, Odisha on 18th & 19th August,
Telangana on 17th – 19th August, Vidarbha on 19th August.
❖ Isolated extremely heavy rainfall was recorded over Uttarakhand, Bihar, Coastal
Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 14th August, Konkan & Goa on 14th, 16th, 18th & 19th
August, Telangana on 16th & 18th August, Punjab on 17th August, Madhya
Maharashtra on 17th & 19th August, Coastal Karnataka on 18th & 19th August,
Saurashtra & Kutch on 19th & 20th August.
❖ Heavy to very heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places over Haryana
Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Sub-
Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 14th August, Telangana on 14th, 15th, 17th &
19th August; Konkan & Goa on 15th & 17th August, Jammu-Kashmir on 15th
August, Chhattisgarh on 15th & 19th August, Coastal Karnataka on 15th, 17th & 20th
August, Odisha on 15th, 18th & 19th August, Marathawada during 15th – 18th
 August; Kerala & Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 16th & 18th August,
Himachal Pradesh on 16th August, Madhya Maharashtra on 16th & 18th August,
West Madhya Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh on 16 th August, South Interior
Karnataka during 16th – 19th August, Saurashtra & Kutch on 17th August, Coastal
Andhra Pradesh on 18th August, Vidarbha, East Rajasthan on 19th August, Gujarat
Region, Haryana, Uttarakhand on 20th August.
❖ Heavy rainfall was recorded at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh on 14th, 15th,
18th – 20th August, Haryana Chandigarh & Delhi during 15th – 19th August, Punjab
on 14th & 15th August, Vidarbha on 14th & 20th August, Odisha on 14th, 16th & 20th
August, Chhattisgarh on 14th, 16th, 18th & 20th August, Gangetic West Bengal on
14th August, West Madhya Pradesh 14th, 15th, 18th & 20th August, East Madhya
Pradesh on 14th & 20th August, North Interior Karnataka, Assam & Meghalaya on
14th, 15th, & 18th – 20th August, Madhya Maharashtra on 14th & 15th August,
Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 15th, 16th & 19th August, Kerala & Mahe on
15th & 17th August, East Rajasthan during 15th – 17th & 20th August, West Uttar
Pradesh on 15th, 18th & 19th August, Gujarat Region during 15th – 17th & 19th
August, Saurashtra & Kutch on 15th, 17th & 18th August, Nagaland, Manipur,
Mizoram & Tripura during 15th – 18th August, Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 15th,
17th & 18th August, Jammu-Kashmir on 16th & 19th August, Uttarakhand during
16th – 18th August, West Rajasthan on 16th August, Coastal Karnataka on 16th &
17th August, Telangana on 17th & 20th August, South Interior Karnataka on 17th
August, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal on 18th & 19th August, Marathawada
on 19th August, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 19th August, Arunachal
Pradesh on 20th August.
❖ Weekly Average Maximum temperature was above normal by 1-3ºC over parts of
northeast, central and adjoining west India, below normal by 2-4ºC over parts of
north and south peninsular India during the week. Weekly Average Minimum
temperature was above normal by 1-3ºC over Jammu region during first half of
the week and nearly normal over the country during the week.
❖ Temperature Scenario: The lowest minimum temperature of 16.2oC had been
recorded at Gadag (Karnataka) on 19th August, 2025 and the highest maximum
temperature of 40.6oC had been recorded at Jaisalmer (Rajasthan) on 16th
August, 2025 over the plains of the country during the week.

❖ Analysis of weekly overall rainfall distribution during the week-ending on

20th August and the Monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01.06.2025 to
20.08.2025): The country as a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall (for
14th to 20th August 2025) in % departure from its long period average (LPA) is +22%.
All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall % departure during this year’s Monsoon
Season Rainfall (01st June to 20th August 2025) is 02%. Details of the rainfall
distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given in Table 1,
 and Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for week and season are given in
Annexure II & III, respectively.
Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)

Region Week Season

14.08.2025 TO 20.08.2025 01.06.2025 TO 20.08.2025
Actual Normal Departure Actual Normal Departure
(mm) (mm) (%) (mm) (mm) (%)
EAST & 45.7 79.6 -43% 792.8 971.0 -18%
NORTHEAST INDIA
NORTHWEST INDIA 41.2 47.2 -13% 476.3 426.7 +12%
CENTRAL INDIA 103.1 66.8 +54% 753.3 703.0 +7%
SOUTH PENINSULA 82.0 42.1 +95% 540.8 494.6 +9%
THE COUNTRY AS 70.8 57.9 +22% 632.7 619.8 +2%
A WHOLE

2. Large scale features:

❖ Currently, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing
over the equatorial Pacific region. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate
Forecast System (MMCFS), along with other climate models, suggest that these
neutral conditions are likely to persist throughout the monsoon season. However,
there is an increased likelihood of La Niña conditions developing during the post-
monsoon season.
❖ At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the
Indian Ocean. Forecasts from the MMCFS and other climate models indicate that
weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon
season, persisting for a brief period.
❖ The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is quacking transitioning from Phase 3
to phase 4 with an amplitude > 1. It is likely to move across phases 4 & 5 with
decreasing trend in amplitude during week 1. Thereafter, it will move across phases
6, 7 & 8 with negligibly small amplitude during week 2. Thus, MJO is likely to
support the enhancement of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (BoB)
and adjoining east India during week 1.

3. Forecast for the next two weeks

Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (21 to 27 August,

2025) and Week 2 (28 August to 03 September, 2025)

Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (21 to 27 August)

❖ The Monsoon trough is active and runs near its normal position with western end lies
south of its normal position.
❖ An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh at middle
tropospheric levels.
❖ An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over northwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining
areas of north Odisha and Gangetic west Bengal at middle tropospheric levels and
under its influence, a fresh low pressure area likely to form over the same region
around 25th August.
❖ An upper air cyclonic circulation over Kutch & neighbourhood at middle
tropospheric levels.
❖ A shear zone roughly along Lat. 24°N over the Indian region at lower & middle
tropospheric levels.
❖ An upper air cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam & neighbourhood at lower
tropospheric levels.
❖ An off shore trough at mean sea level runs along Gujarat -Maharashtra coasts.

Under the influence of these systems, the following weather is likely:

West India:

❖ Heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely to continue over north Gujarat till
23rd August. A fresh spell of Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall over Gujarat state
from 25th August onwards.
❖ Heavy rainfall is very likely to continue over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra
during next 7 days with very heavy rainfall over Konkan on 25th & 26th and ghat
areas of Madhya Maharashtra on 21st August.
❖ Strong surface winds (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) very likely over Gujarat coast
during next 5 days and over Maharashtra coast on 21st & 22nd August.
❖ Light to moderate rainfall at most/many places very likely over the region during
next 7 days.

East & Central India:

❖ Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Sub-Himalayan

West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar during next 7 days; Vidarbha on 26th & 27th; Odisha,
Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal during 21st-26th August with isolated very heavy
rainfall over west Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal on 21st & 22nd; Sub-
Himalayan West Bengal on 21st; Jharkhand, Bihar on 22nd & 23rd; Odisha on
22nd, 25th & 26th and Chhattisgarh during 25th-27th August.
❖ Light to moderate rainfall at most/many places accompanied with thunderstorm &
lightning likely over the region during next 5 days.
Northwest India:

❖ Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Jammu-Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana during 22nd-
26th; Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan during next 6-7 days; Uttar
Pradesh during 21st-25th August with isolated very heavy rainfall over East
Rajasthan during 21st-24th; Punjab, Haryana on 23rd; Uttarakhand during 22nd-
25th; Himachal Pradesh during 23rd-26th; West Rajasthan on 23rd & 24th August.
❖ Light/moderate rainfall at most/many places accompanied with thunderstorm &
lightning likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad,
Uttarakhand & Rajasthan during next 7 days.

Northeast India:

❖ Isolated heavy rainfall likely to continue over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland,
Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh during 5 days with very heavy
rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Assam & Meghalaya on 21st
& 22nd August.
❖ Light/moderate rainfall at many places accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning
likely during next 3 days.

South Peninsular India:

❖ Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Coastal & North Interior Karnataka, Kerala on
26th & 27th and Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 25th & 26th August.
❖ Light to moderate rainfall at most/many places accompanied with thunderstorm &
lightning likely over Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Telangana
during next 5 days.

Precipitation for week 2 (28 August to 03 September, 2025):

❖ The monsoon trough at mean sea level is likely to be active and run near normal or
south of its normal position during the week.
❖ A shear zone likely to runs over north Peninsular India in middle tropospheric levels
during some days of the week.
❖ An off-shore trough likely to runs north Gujarat-north Kerala coasts mainly during
1st half of the week
❖ Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very falls likely over
many parts of northwest & central India and along the west coast (especially Coastal
Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, Gujarat, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and
 Chhattisgarh) during many days of the week. Isolated Extremely heavy rainfall is also
likely over Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and Gujarat during one or two days of
the week.
❖ Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also likely over
many parts of east & northeast India during many days of the week.
❖ Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over most parts of northwest &
central India; normal to above normal over many parts of east & northeast; below
normal over many parts of south Peninsular India during the week.

Temperature forecast for Week 1 (21 to 27 August, 2025) and Week 2 (28
August to 03 September, 2025)

Temperature forecast for Week 1 (21 to 27 August, 2025):

❖ Maximum Temperature Departures (as on 20-08-2025): markedly above normal
(> 5.1°C) at isolated places over Odisha. appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C)
at few places over West Rajasthan; at isolated places over Uttarakhand, East
Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. above normal(1.6°C to 3.0°C) at
few places over Jharkhand, East Madhya Pradesh, Kerala & Mahe and
Lakshadweep; at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Bihar, East Uttar
Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and West Madhya
Pradesh. These are near normal or below normal over rest parts of the country. The
highest maximum temperature of 40.1°C is reported at BARMER (RAJASTHAN).
❖ Overall, maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal by 2-3°C over most
parts of the country during the week.

Temperature forecast for Week 2 (28 August to 03 September, 2025):

❖ Maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal by 1-3°C over most parts of
the country except northeast India and Bihar, where these are likely to be above
normal by 1-3°C during the week.
Annexure I
Annexure II
 Annexure III

Extended range forecast of weekly distribution of rainfall in mm per day (top

panel) and anomalies (lower panel) from IMD MME
 Annexure IV

Extended range forecast of weekly distribution of Maximum Temperature in

°C (top panel) and anomalies (lower panel) from IMD Bias Corrected Forecast