Demographic Trends in Bangladesh

A K M Nurun Nabi, Ph D Professor and Project Director Department of Population Sciences University of Dhaka akmnnabi@yahoo.com

Population trends in Bangladesh show that Bangladesh is well into third phase of demographic transition, having shifted from a high mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one.

Population of Bangladesh and Growth Rate per Annum 1700- 2011

Year
1700 1750 1770 1800 1850 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1974 1981 1991 2001 2011

Population (in million)

17 19 15 17 20 25 27 29 32 33 36 42 44 55 76 90 111 131 150

Growth rate
0.20 -1.20 0.40 0.30 0.90 0.80 0.69 0.94 0.60 0.74 1.70 0.50 2.26 2.48 2.32 2.17 1.54 1.37
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Sources: M. Obaidullah, n.d.; Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 2011.

Demographic Transition in Bangladesh

Figure-2: Demographic Transition in Bangladesh

Declining Fertility and Mortality

Period
1901-11 1911-21 1921-31 1931-41 1941-51 1951-61 1961-74 1986 1991 2004 2011

CBR
53.8 52.9 50.4 52.7 49.4 51.3 48.3 38.9 28.5 20.8 17.9

CDR
45.6 47.3 41.7 37.8 40.7 29.7 19.4 11.9 8.6 6.1 4.8

Maternal and Child Mortality

Under 5 mortality : 65/1000 live Birth Infant Mortality : 52/1000 live Birth Neonatal mortality : 37/1000 live Birth
160

Deaths per 1,000 live-births

140 120 100 80 60 40

12-59 months 1-11 months

-2.6% per year 0-28 days
39% 42% 45% 47%
57%

20 0

1989-93

1992-6 1995-9

1999-2003

2002-6

Source: Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys, 1993-4, 1996-7, 1999-2000, 2004, 2007

Trends in TFR and CPR, Bangladesh, 1975-2011

1975 BFS 1989 BFS 1991 CPS 1994 BDHS 1997 BDHS 2000 BDHS 2004 BDHS

2007 BDHS

2011 BDHS

TFR

6.3

5.1

4.3

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.0

2.7

2.3

CPR

7.7

30.8

39.9

44.6

49.2

53.8

58.1

55.8

61.2

Estimated Number of Women of Reproductive Age (million)

60
50 40.8 40 31.8 30 20 35.8 47.7

49.4

44.8

10
0 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Contribution of Adolescent Fertility

Year 1991 1994 1997 2000 2004 Age specific fertility rate 179 140 147 144 135 TFR 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.0 Contribution to TFR (%) 20.8 20.6 22.3 21.8 22.5 23.3

2007

126

2.7

Female Median Age at Marriage

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1997 2000 2004 2007 14.2 15 14.8 15.3

Source: BDHS 1997, 2000, 2004, 2007

Urbanization
National & urban population growth in Bangladesh 1901-2008
Census Year National Population (million) Growth Rates Urban Population Number Percent Annual Growth Rate

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2008

28.93 31.56 33.25 53.60 42.00 44.17 55.22 76.40 89.91 111.46 130.03 144.66

0.87 0.52 0.68 1.65 0.50 2.23 2.50 2.33 2.15 1.54 1.32

0.70 0.81 0.88 1.07 1.54 1.82 2.64 6.27 13.23 20.87 28.61 36.31

2.43 2.55 2.64 3.02 3.66 4.33 5.19 8.78 15.18 19.63 23.10 25.10

1.39 0.85 2.00 3.59 1.69 3.72 6.66 10.66 4.56 3.15 12 3.37

Rate of population movement is much higher than the national population growth rate. National population growth rate is 1.37% per annum, while the national internal migration rate is 4.5%. For Dhaka, the in-migration rate is about 6.0%.
The urban growth rate is 3.5% per annum, while the slum growth rate is 7.0%. Dhaka was the second fastest growing mega city between 1975-2007 with 5.65% urban growth and Dhaka would be the fastest growing mega city up to 2025 in spite of having lower growth rate of 2.72% from 2007 to 2025.
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Age Structure: Young and Old

Broad Age Groups
Year
1911 0-14 Yrs. (%) 42.3 15-59 Yrs. (%) 53.3 60+ Yrs. (%) 4.4

1921
1931 1941

42.3
41.9 41.4

53.6
54.9 55.1

4.1
3.2 3.5

1951
1961 1974

42.2
46.0 48.0

53.5
48.8 46.3

4.4
5.2 5.7

1981
1991 2001

46.7
45.1 39.4

47.8
49.5 54.9

5.5
5.4 5.7

2005

37.9

55.9

6.2
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Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 1999 and 2006

As a result of declining population growth and . consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working age population is increasing and offering a window of opportunity, referred to as the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend is defined as the potential economic benefit offered by changes in the age structure of the population during the demographic transition, when there is an increase in working age population and an associated decline in the dependent age population.

The demographic structure of Bangladesh population suggests that its population will continue to grow for decades to come due to the population momentum inherent in the young age structure, even if replacement level fertility is achieved by the year 2015. However, this young population is a blessing in the sense that it implies strength, energy, vigor, pool of work force and a full potential for future leadership. For Bangladesh, this is a demographic bonus. This demographic bonus could bring a huge dividend, if this raw capital is converted into circulatory capital. This window of opportunity opens for a population only once. If we fail to grab this opportunity immediately, this young population could create a disastrous hazard for the nation.

Challenges Remain
Although the demographic transition creates the demographic dividend, it also brings significant challenges with it. Among these are the areas of education, health, nutrition, ageing, inequality, housing, food, social and political unrest , status of women, and employment.

The potential gains from the "demographic dividend" will be at risk due to continuing poverty and poor living standards.

Demographic dividend is not prearranged. Rather it is an opportunity provided by the age structural transition. Meeting future challenges depends on ability to take advantage of the window of opportunity offered for a plausibly tiny period for once in a life-time with pertinent economic and social policies.
What needs to be emphasised here is that economic gains from demographic dividend are not certain, as the term might misleadingly imply. Economic returns are not solely function of demographic dividend.

Projection of Changing Age-Structures for 2051

Distribution of Population by Age and Demographic Window of Opportunity in Bangladesh, 2005-2050

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To materialize the benefit of the window of opportunity, some strategic priorities could suggested:

Ensuring enabling policy environment Reducing poverty Creating environment for external investment Generating employment opportunities Creating enabling environment for womens employment Eliminating all kind of inequality Ensuring access to health, and Education Expanding safety net for elderly Reaching replacement level fertility Creating space for human resource development Creating institutional framework for accessible savings mechanism

Thank You

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