MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
By, Dan McAvinchey
One of the keys to maintaining your sanity in the independent music business is to have the ability to
manage your expectations about how well your records will be accepted and sold to the record-buying
public. This can also be true even in the high-stakes, major label environment. A great example would be
ichael !ackson"s #$istory# %&, where 'ony usic executives (prior to the release) said that sales under
*+,+++,+++ units would be a major disappointment. After only *,+++,+++ copies sold, you can be sure that
some bonuses were canceled, jobs were cut and r. !ackson"s plans to expand his petting ,oo were put on
hold.
$ow disappointed do you think you would be if you sold * million copies of your independent release- .
know better than to ask, because after buying new homes for everyone in your family, you"d have enough
left over to send several hundred thousand dollars to your favorite columnist. The difference between you
and the executives at 'ony is that your expectations are radically different. /ou expect to sell a few
hundred to a few thousand copies of your independent release, whereas they were expecting sales of *+
million units at 'ony.
. believe s lot of people set their expectations by simply engaging in wishful thinking. The example at 'ony
demonstrates that even .0.A.-educated executives sometimes set their expectations the same way. There
is no other explanation for selling a mere one-tenth of what was expected by the company. 1hat basis does
anyone use to set their expectations in the first place- 1hen you order your first 2+++ %&s to be duplicated,
how 3uickly do you expect to sell them--in six months, in one year, or in five years-
These are difficult 3uestions to answer. The standard response is that you always rely on your experience.
That might be fine if you"ve released six or seven %&s in the past and intend to put out another album in the
same style as the previous releases. 0ut what if this is your first release- Or what if this album represents a
major stylistic departure or a completely new musical approach- 1hen this is the case, it can be a challenge
to guess exactly how the public will accept something new and different.
Another variable you must consider when setting expectations is the effort you are planning to put into
marketing, promotion and publicity and the effect you want this effort to have on sales. .f you done
advertising before, perhaps you"ve tracked the effectiveness of running ads in certain maga,ines or
newspapers. That can give you a good idea as to what to expect from future advertising efforts. .f you plan
to support your record by touring or playing live, you might expect to sell many more records than if you
only performed occasionally.
4ikewise, how much of a name have you established for yourself- 1hen a nationally-known columnist like
%raig Anderton at 56 decides to release a record, he could expect to garner sales from people who at least
have heard of him through his many articles in publications such as 7uitar 8layer, 5lectronic usician,
9eyboard and 56. :innie oore was able to sell over 2++,+++ copies of his debut instrumental %&
because he traveled all over the ;nited 'tates doing guitar clinics. 'teve :ai is another example. .n addition
to getting press through the transcriptions he would do for 7uitar 8layer maga,ine, :ai was able to use
<rank =appa"s name to draw attention to his first release, #<lex-Able#, as in, #former guitarist for <rank
=appa.# .f you can find a creative way to get your name out there before the public you can expect to see an
effect on sales of your release.
usicians coming out with their first releases in the late 2>>+"s look to the .nternet as a potential "pot-of-
gold"? a way to get global exposure without touring or receiving traditional exposure in one of the many
music maga,ines. As . point out in my column, #.nternet arketing-<act Or <iction#, exposure on the
.nternet is becoming more and more like exposure anywhere else--with a si,able budget you can reach
many web surfers, without one, it"s going to re3uire a lot of time-consuming grass-roots work. .n order to
generate sales, you also run smack-dab into something called "consumer confidence," which is currently
lacking on the .nternet in general. .t"s necessary to be able to take credit card orders over a secure server
just to satisfy the most confident of .nternet customers, and you need to have the resources in place to be
able to do that. any musicians have found simply putting an album cover, a few sound clips and an
address to send a check to has resulted in few actual sales. .n terms of expectations, you"ve got to set your
sales targets very low unless you can come up with ways to get a lot (and . mean a lot) of visitors to your
new web site.
."m suggesting that if you are currently "unknown" in the music business you must reali,e that even to sell
@++ %&s is going to be a slow, building process. This even applies to bands or musicians who have built up
a strong reputation in a city or community, if your intention is to sell outside of your local area. 'et your
expectations at a very modest level, then work as if you intend to sell a million copies. Take every
opportunity you can to present your %& to a potentially new audience and reali,e there are no shortcuts--it
is a time-consuming process that eats most bands up. That"s why you"ve never heard of "most" bands.
They"ve given up the fight long ago, many thinking (and expecting) it would be easier than they thought to
sell music and build a fan base. Think in terms of years, not months, and let your experience help you to
manage future expectations. ost importantly, enjoy what you"re doing and be grateful for every sale,
because if you are relishing every moment you spend in the music world, there"s no way you will be
disappointed.
