An article in The Guardian on 03 December pointed out the fallacy of reporting landslides and massive victory of Donald Trump
- he did not win the majority of the votes, albeit getting more popular votes than Kamala Harris
- his margin of victory is a mere 1.6 percent
- the 312 votes in the electoral college are par both Trump’s result in 2016 (304) and Biden’s in 2020 (306)
- he won the blue wall states by 231,000 votes total, hence would have lost had only 116,000 voters (0.7% of the votes) switched.
While Nate Cohn of The New York Times reflected on the poll strengths and misses, since
- polls predicted shifts in several voting groups towards Trump
- they underestimated him by about two percentage points, which is the average poll error along years
- and they did not do well at predicting turnout in Democratic districts
Xi'an's Og