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Adjust probability of testing finding a problem that requires rework based on what fraction of the expected development time the developer actually put into the job. For example, if the developer puts in t_code hours, the probability of a bug is X%; at 80% of t_code hours the probability is 2X%, while at 120% of t_code the probability is 1.5X%.
How much time the developer puts in depends on the backlog in their queue and the overall backlog.
Point out that this is a reasonable model, but we are making up several parameters to implement it.
t_codehours, the probability of a bug is X%; at 80% oft_codehours the probability is 2X%, while at 120% oft_codethe probability is 1.5X%.