Tags: waterfall

If you wanted to make a really crude approximation of project management, you could say there are two main styles: waterfall and agile.

It’s not as simple as that by any means. And the two aren’t really separate things; agile came about as a response to the failures of waterfall. But if we’re going to stick with crude approximations, here we go:

• In a waterfall process, you define everything up front and then execute.
• In an agile process, you start executing and then adjust based on what you learn.

So crude! Much approximation!

It only recently struck me that the agile approach is basically a cybernetic system.

Cybernetics is pretty much anything that involves feedback. If it’s got inputs and outputs that are connected in some way, it’s probably cybernetic. Politics. Finance. Your YouTube recommendations. Every video game you’ve ever played. You. Every living thing on the planet. That’s cybernetics.

Fun fact: early on in the history of cybernetics, a bunch of folks wanted to get together at an event to geek about this stuff. But they knew that if they used the word “cybernetics” to describe the event, Norbert Wiener would show up and completely dominate proceedings. So they invented a new alias for the same thing. They coined the term “artificial intelligence”, or AI for short.

Yes, ironically the term “AI” was invented in order to repel a Reply Guy. Now it’s Reply Guy catnip. In today’s AI world, everyone’s a Norbert Wiener.

The thing that has the Wieners really excited right now in the world of programming is the idea of agentic AI. In this set-up, you don’t do any of the actual coding. Instead you specify everything up front and then have a team of artificial agents execute your plan.

That’s right; it’s a return to waterfall. But that’s not as crazy as it sounds. Waterfall was wasteful because execution was expensive and time-consuming. Now that execution is relatively cheap (you pay a bit of money to line the pockets of the worst people in exchange for literal tokens), you can afford to throw some spaghetti at the wall and see if it sticks.

But you lose the learning. The idea of a cybernetic system like, say, agile development, is that you try something, learn from it, and adjust accordingly. You remember what worked. You remember what didn’t. That’s learning.

Outsourcing execution to machines makes a lot of sense.

I’m not so sure it makes sense to outsource learning.

How Certain Algorithms to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed – The Markup

A terrific piece from Aaron Sankin that goes from Waldsterben to software development via firefighting and the RAND corporation.

Bureaucracies use measurements to optimize and rearrange the world around them. For those measurements to be effective, they have to be conducted in units as relevant as possible to the conditions on the ground.

Acephalic Agile—worse than Waterfall? - Oliver Wyman Labs: Technical

Agile itself provides us with the ability and opportunity to correct course, it allows us to steer, but it does nothing as such to help us steer correctly.

This observation about (some) agile projects is worryingly familiar:

I was suddenly seized by a horrible thought: what if this new-found agility was used, not teleologically to approach the right outcome over the course of a project, but simply to enshrine the right of middle management to change their minds, to provide a methodological license for arbitrary management? At least under a Waterfall regime they had to apologise when they departed from the plan. With Agile they are allowed, in principle, to make as many changes of direction as they like. But what if Agile was used merely as a license to justify keeping the team in the office night after night in a never-ending saga of rapidly accumulating requirements and dizzying changes of direction? And what if the talk of developer ‘agility’ was just a way of softening up developers for a life of methodologically sanctioned pliability? In short, what if Agile turned out to be worse than Waterfall?

Client/Agency Engagement is F*cked, Waterfall UX Design is a Symptom | disambiguity

Leisa nails it. The real stumbling block with trying to change the waterfall-esque nature of agency work (of which Clearleft has certainly been guilty) can be summed up in two words: sign off.

And from a client’s perspective, this emphasis on sign-off is completely understandable.

It takes a special kind of client to take the risk and develop the level of trust and integration required to work the way that Mr Popoff-Walker any many, many other inhabitants of agency world would like to work.