Two new studies conclude that stabilizing long-term #climate risks will require sustained net-negative carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for centuries.

Approaching the problem from distinct perspectives—legal and technological feasibility on the one hand, and #economic optimization under #uncertainty on the other—the research converges on a consistent message: reaching net zero is not enough.

The former study examines how to halt the growth of delayed climate impacts, such as sea-level rise and permafrost thaw, that continue to intensify even if global temperatures stabilize at 1.5°C.

Following the 2025 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice affirming states' obligations to prevent significant climate harm, the authors assess what would be required to stop these impacts from worsening.

Their conclusion is clear: net-zero emissions alone will not stabilize these long-term damages.

The second study addresses how uncertainty in the Earth system should shape optimal climate #policy.

Widely used integrated assessment modeling approaches seldom account for uncertainty when designing optimal climate policies.

Crucially, the results indicate that sustained, potentially century-long net-negative emissions are needed, not to offset temporary overshoot, but to reduce long-term Earth system risks.

https://phys.org/news/2026-03-centuries-net-negative-emissions-required.html

Paper by Gasser et al. (2026):
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-69896-x

Paper by Bednar et al. (2026):
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae34ca

Permalink: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1RGjU

#US #economy #uncertainty

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Graph of data from the St. Louis Fed's FRED tool, plotting the "World Uncertainty Index for United States" series versus time. It explodes in recent years and is over 2.5 higher than it was at its last peak near the start of the COVID pandemic

The question of #territory remains
outstanding: #Trump acknowledged
#uncertainty around the fate of Ukraine’s eastern #Donbas region. #Zelensky reiterated his position that the people of #Ukraine will ultimately have to answer the question. He noted that a referendum could be used for any point of the peace plan — not just territory. He also left open the possibility of parliamentary involvement.

#geopolitics #Europe #Putin #Russia #UnitedStates #extortion #allies #ForeignPolicy #PutinsPuppet