Regarding what follows, I have no standing in economics but I do know a bit about it, I can do math, and I've read the opinions of a few experts I trust. As far as I can tell this document I link below is word salad. Among many head scratchers in it, one of the considerations proposed for choosing a tariff rate is "Do the nation’s leaders grandstand against the United States in the international theater?" This is not economics, it's petty grievance disguised as policy. Words are cheap. What matters is what these nations' leaders do. The framing this document takes, that the US is somehow cheated by the current global trade arrangement and world order, is false on its face. Again, this is grievance disguised as policy. Anyway, here goes:

As an analyst at Hudson Bay Capital, Stephen Miran authored the blueprint for the tariff strategy the Trump administration is now using:

Tariffs provide revenue, and if offset by currency adjustments, present minimal inflationary or otherwise adverse side effects, consistent with the experience in 2018-2019. While currency offset can inhibit adjustments to trade flows, it suggests that tariffs are ultimately financed by the tariffed nation, whose real purchasing power and wealth decline, and that the revenue raised improves burden sharing for reserve asset provision. Tariffs will likely be implemented in a manner deeply intertwined with national security concerns, and I discuss a variety of possible implementation schemes. I also discuss optimal tariff rates in the context of the rest of the U.S. taxation system.

(emphasis mine)

From https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

Miran became the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, appointed by Trump, in March 2025. He seems to be a conservative think tank creature too.

#USPol #USEconomics #TrumpTariffs #TrumpRecession #TrumpCrash

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's GDP Now is estimating 2.8% GDP decline in the 1st quarter of 2025 and the 1st month of Trump's presidency.

I'm not a GDP growth at all costs person--I believe we have no choice but to stop the mad obsession with making that number go up--but I do think it's important to note that GDP was growing relatively rapidly (by modern standards) through the end of 2024. This change marks a significant turnaround that looks like it might erase a quarter's worth of growth and then some. Official data release is March 27. I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that an administration whose only policy thus far has been to inflict pain on people would inflict economic pain as well.

2 quarters of this is a recession and 4 quarters of this is a depression by conventional metrics.

#USPol #USEconomics #economy #GDP